DFS Alerts
Cowboys LT Tyron Smith expected to play Week 5
His presence will be important for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys as Smith is currently PFF’s 15th-ranked tackle in pass blocking and their opponent, the Packers, currently rank fourth in adjusted sack rate (per FO).
Jack Doyle (concussion) isn't practicing Friday
The tight end is in the concussion protocol and he’s been limited all week. A Friday downgrade is a very bad sign for his chances of suiting up this weekend; he appears to be on the doubtful side of things now. If he’s out, it’ll provide Darrell Daniels and Brandon Williams more snaps, both of whom have been targeted five or fewer times through four games and will have a tough draw against a 49ers defense that ranks first in TE DVOA. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has displayed a real connection with Doyle, targeting him the second-most on the team, and the tight end’s absence may hurt Brissett’s chances of success against the 49ers. On paper, the matchup looks solid as San Francisco ranks 26th in pass DVOA and has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. However, it may be a tough matchup for Brissett’s personnel. Without Doyle, T.Y. Hilton should pick up more looks but the 49ers have allowed just 49.9 yards per game to WR1s this year (9th-fewest, per FO). SF ranks 29th in WR2 and other WR DVOA but Brissett has only completed 50% of his passes to Donte Moncrief across his three starts and 33% to Kamar Aiken for just 44 yards. The 49ers are also allowing the most passes to RBs this season (10.1) while the Colts have hardly used their backs in the passing game – Frank Gore, Robert Turbin, and Marlon Mack have combined for 2.5 receptions per game. Perhaps Hilton can overcome the 49ers’ trend against WR1s like Sammy Watkins did in Week 3 (6/106/2); he’ll get plenty of run against Rashard Robinson on the outside and K’Waun Williams in the slot. The former has allowed two scores and the latter has given up the fourth-most yards after catch (111). Both have allowed passer ratings of 97.5 or higher. On top of that, his market share should shoot through the roof as Doyle’s absence leaves 20.7% of the Colts’ targets unaccounted for.
Other tagged players: T.Y. Hilton, Jacoby Brissett, Donte Moncrief, Kamar Aiken, Darrell Daniels, Brandon Williams Josh Norman (ribs) expected to be out four weeks
Washington is on a bye this week, so he’s only expected miss three games. If the timetable holds, it will provide upgrades for Pierre Garcon, Alshon Jeffery, and Dez Bryant in coming weeks.
Kenny Golladay and Dwayne Washington aren't expected to play Week 5
Golladay (hamstring) and Washington (quad) were both inactive this past weekend and unable to participate in any practice this week. TJ Jones operated as the third receiver in Golladay’s absence and would resume those duties against the Panthers this weekend. He could see corner Daryl Worley a bunch if Worley suits up. The Panthers CB has given up a 116.7 passer rating and a 12/95/2 line on 18 targets (per PFF). It still seems doubtful Jones can get enough targets to produce a strong fantasy game though – he picked up five last time out. Instead, Golden Tate should continue to receive the most looks; his 32 targets represents a 23.2% market share this season. He’ll square off with Captain Munnerlyn in the slot, who’s only been targeted seven times in that position but has allowed a catch on each occasion and has given up the ninth-most cover yards per snap there (1.22, per PFF). That said, it’s a tough game to target in fantasy as both teams operate at a slow pace – Detroit is 24th and Carolina is 30th (per FO). As a result, the game total has dropped to an unappealing 42.5 points.
As reported by: Dave Birkett Other tagged players: Dwayne Washington Ben Watson and CB Jimmy Smith returned to practice Friday, DT Brandon Williams isn't participating
Watson (calf) and Smith (Achilles) were both sidelined Wednesday and Thursday; their return to the field indicates they’re on track to play Sunday. Williams (foot) is a key part of their run defense. He’s expected to be out again, which will be a boost for Marshawn Lynch as it was for Le’Veon Bell in Week 4. Smith has been their best cover corner this season. His absence would help Amari Cooper the most, but the receiver will still have E.J. Manuel throwing to him, which makes it tough to believe he can produce if Smith is out. Watson is expected to play Sunday – he played last week despite missing practice. He’ll be taking on an Oakland defense that currently ranks dead last in TE DVOA. Guys like Vernon Davis (5/58/1) and A.J. Derby (4/75/1) have been successful against them and Delanie Walker led the Titans with seven receptions and 76 yards in Week 1. Although Baltimore’s offense has been inefficient as a whole, Watson has been performing well, hauling in 16-of-18 passes and leading the team with 146 receiving yards. In a favorable spot against the Browns, he took advantage, catching eight passes for 91 yards, and will look to repeat that type of success in another friendly matchup this weekend.
Bills CB E.J. Gaines questionable for Week 5, LB Ramon Humber ruled out
Gaines (shoulder) was able to get in limited sessions for the past two days. Gaines could cause problems for A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell on the outside this Sunday. He’s currently PFF’s 18th-ranked CB and he’s limited opposing quarterbacks to a 41.0 passer rating after being targets 23 times (11/95/0 line with a pick). Green lines up on Gaines’ side for roughly 50% of his routes and the receiver will also have to contend with Tre’Davious White on the other side, who’s earned the eight-best cover grade this season. On top of that, this game has the second-lowest total of the week (39.5) and Green has averaged 5.5 fewer PPR points per game when playing at home over the course of his career. LaFell hasn’t topped 30 yards all season, nor has he found the end zone – this doesn’t look like a good spot for him to turn things around, Buffalo currently ranks fourth in WR2 DVOA (per FO). Humber’s absence is an upgrade for Joe Mixon; the linebacker has been excellent in run defense, producing the second-best run-stop rate among linebackers (per PFF) and earned the 15th-best run defense grade. Mixon has topped 20 touches in each of the past two games as he’s taken over as the featured back and should continue to receive a solid workload. Buffalo’s defensive line will pose a formidable challenge though, they’re currently seventh in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO)
Other tagged players: A.J. Green, Brandon LaFell, Joe Mixon Wendell Smallwood questionable for Week 5, Fletcher Cox officially ruled out
Smallwood (knee) won’t practice again today after missing Wednesday and Thursday and ESPN’s Adam Caplan doesn’t expect him to play this weekend – it’s hard to imagine he’s able to play without practicing on Friday. If he can’t suit up Sunday, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement would see increased workloads. Blount has been relatively quiet this season but he exploded for his best game of the year against the Chargers in Week 4, racking up 156 yards on 17 touches. Although he’ll have a much more challenging matchup this week – the Cardinals rank fourth in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO) and they’ve given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs – he’ll be an interesting option at his affordable price. Blount remains as powerful as ever, averaging an incredible 5.0 yards after contact per carry (per PFF), and he should be Philly’s go-to back when in scoring position. The Cardinals are allowing a touchdown on 63.7% of their opponents’ red zone trips, the eighth-worst rate in the league.
Other tagged players: Philadelphia Eagles Paul Perkins and C Weston Richburg ruled out for Week 5; Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon questionable
Perkins will be sidelined this week as he rehabs bruised ribs. Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman both get opportunities as the early-down backs while coach Ben McAdoo will still have Shane Vereen “play his role” as the passing-down back. McAdoo left it open for one of these guys to take over the backfield against the Chargers though, adding “if somebody gets hot, we’ll ride him.” Gallman rushed for 42 yards against the Buccaneers in his NFL debut this past weekend. Sadly, that marks the most yardage by any Giants running back in a game this season. Darkwa is leading the group with a 4.1 ypc rate. The Chargers rush defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) and is currently allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (163.5). Gallman appears to have the best shot at the featured role and may be worth a high-risk GPP flier given the spot and his low salary but the floor will be very low. It won’t help that Richburg is sidelined; he’s currently PFF’s 13th-ranked center and the only guy on the Giants’ offensive line with a grade considered “average” or better.
Other tagged players: Wayne Gallman, Orleans Darkwa Report: Wendell Smallwood not expected to play Week 5
ESPN’s Adam Caplan doesn’t expect Smallwood to play this weekend. The back is dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t been able to practice this week. If he can’t suit up Sunday, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement would see increased workloads. Blount has been relatively quiet this season but he exploded for his best game of the year against the Chargers in Week 4, racking up 156 yards on 17 touches. Although he’ll have a much more challenging matchup this week – the Cardinals rank fourth in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO) and they’ve given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs – he’ll be an interesting option at his affordable price. Blount remains as powerful as ever, averaging an incredible 5.0 yards after contact per carry (per PFF), and he should be Philly’s go-to back when in scoring position. The Cardinals are allowing a touchdown on 63.7% of their opponents’ red zone trips, the eighth-worst rate in the league.
As reported by: Adam Caplan Other tagged players: LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement Michael Crabtree (chest) practiced again Thursday
He was a full participant and looks to be on track to play the Ravens on Sunday. Crabtree will return to a tough spot against one of the best secondaries in the game if he’s able to play Baltimore this weekend. On top of that, quarterback Derek Carr has been ruled out, leaving E.J. Manuel under center. Across 17 career starts, the backup QB has never thrown for 300 yards or three touchdowns. He’s been held under 200 yards in six of those starts and has thrown multiple scores in just five. The Ravens pass defense currently ranks second in pass DVOA – third against WR2s specifically – and they’ve limited opposing quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating (63.1) and second-lowest completion percentage (54.4). Even if he plays, Crabtree doesn’t look like a very appealing fantasy target this week.
Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham returned to full practice Thursday; C.J. Prosise (ankle), CB Jeremy Lane, and S Earl Thomas didn't participate
CB Richard Sherman was a full participant as well. It’s the second day in a row Prosise, Thomas, and Lane have missed. Head coach Pete Carroll already said Prosise would play and Thomas missed practice last Thursday and still suited up Sunday. Lane seems legitimately questionable after being forced from Week 4’s game early with a groin injury.
Other tagged players: Jimmy Graham Buccaneers LB Kwon Alexander, LB Lavonte David, S T.J. Ward, and S Keith Tandy inactive Thursday night; Doug Martin active
On offense, running back Doug Martin is active along with Jacquizz Rodgers, Charles Sims, and Peyton Barber. It’s Martin’s first game back and there’s been plenty of speculation regarding his workload tonight. It appears the Bucs want to use him as much as they can but given the short week coming off his suspension, it’s doesn’t seem likely that he’ll receive a full complement of snaps. With the noted inactives, Tampa Bay is thin on defense heading into a matchup with New England’s high-powered passing attack that comes complete with pass-catching backs and slot receivers that can attack the middle of the field. Danny Amendola has picked up at least five targets in all three games he’s played this season, catching 15 total passes for 190 yards and a score. He should pick up some extra looks given the situation. He should get plenty of run against Robert McClain, who’s been very poor this season. He’s allowed a reception on 11 of his 13 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown, per PFF. Overall, he’s posted the fourth-worst yards per cover snap rate in the slot (1.64). Chris Hogan has also lined up inside quite a bit – 51% of his snaps – and he’s leading the team with eight red zone targets; he has a great shot to pick up some scoring opportunities in the middle of the field tonight.
Other tagged players: Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, Doug Martin Rob Gronkowski, Rex Burkhead, DL Alan Branch, and CB Eric Rowe officially inactive Thursday night
All of their other questionable players are active tonight, including CB Stephen Gilmore, LB Dont’a Hightower, and RT Marcus Cannon. With Gronk out, it’ll be an interesting spot for Dwayne Allen against Tampa Bay. Although the Bucs rank fourth in TE DVOA, they’ve allowed the fifth-most passes to the position (8.4 per game, per FO) and they won’t be at full strength – they’re expected to be without two linebackers and two safeties. There should be plenty of volume through the air as Tampa Bay’s strong defensive line play has set up a pass-funnel defense. Through three games, their DL ranks fifth in adjusted line yards per carry (3.09, per FO) and the Bucs check in at third in rush DVOA. On the other end of the spectrum, they’re 27th in pass defense and have given up the second-most passing yards per game (316). They’ve allowed WR1s the second-most yards per game (114.2) and Brandin Cooks will square off with Vernon Hargreaves the most, who’s allowed the third-most yards per cover snap (2.0, per PFF). With two of their starting linebackers on the shelf, the Bucs have ranked 30th in receiving RB DVOA, setting up a nice spot for James White. The back has accounted for the second-most targets on the team (26) and he’s been very efficient, hauling in 22 of those looks. In a shootout last week with the Panthers, White out-snapped Mike Gillislee by a mile 43 to 18 and could easily do so again in a favorable spot that features the highest total of the week (54.5 points) and a close spread (4.5 in favor of New England).
This Running Back Is Going Wildly Overlooked
Ellington is no David Johnson, but he has stepped into the portion of Johnson’s role that elevated his floor each week – seeing 22 combined targets over the Cardinals’ last two games. While such a massive target load is unlikely to hold, DJ averaged 7.5 targets per game last year when Carson Palmer averaged under 40 pass attempts per game. This year – at an NFL-leading passing play percentage of 69.93%, and an NFL-leading 71.5 plays per game – Palmer is averaging over 45 passes per game, and a pair of similarly pass-heavy offenses (the Chargers and Giants) were able to post over 300 yards through the air by throwing incessantly on the Eagles. This is a funnel defense, taking on an offense that does not want to run the ball anyway, which means that another 45 to 50 pass attempts is not out of the question. As long as Palmer is putting the ball in the air that often, Ellington will have a role, with a floor of around eight targets, and with upside for more – making him an intriguing salary saver in tourneys this week.
Rob Gronkowski (thigh) not expected to play Thursday night
With Gronk out, it’ll be an interesting spot for Dwayne Allen against Tampa Bay. Although the Bucs rank fourth in TE DVOA, they’ve allowed the fifth-most passes to the position (8.4 per game, per FO) and they won’t be at full strength – they’re expected to be without two linebackers and two safeties. There should be plenty of volume through the air as Tampa Bay’s strong defensive line play has set up a pass-funnel defense. Through three games, their DL ranks fifth in adjusted line yards per carry (3.09, per FO) and the Bucs check in at third in rush DVOA. On the other end of the spectrum, they’re 27th in pass defense and have given up the second-most passing yards per game (316). They’ve allowed WR1s the second-most yards per game (114.2) and Brandin Cooks will square off with Vernon Hargreaves the most, who’s allowed the third-most yards per cover snap (2.0, per PFF). With two of their starting linebackers on the shelf, the Bucs have ranked 30th in receiving RB DVOA, setting up a nice spot for James White. The back has accounted for the second-most targets on the team (26) and he’s been very efficient, hauling in 22 of those looks. In a shootout last week with the Panthers, White out-snapped Mike Gillislee by a mile 43 to 18 and could easily do so again in a favorable spot that features the highest total of the week (55 points) and a close spread (4.5 in favor of New England).