DFS Alerts
Me Like Targets!
Similar to the Cookie Monster liking cookies, I like targets, and DeAndre Hopkins saw 16 of them in Week 1. While the results weren’t there, he was facing one of the toughest pass defenses in the league in the Jaguars. He’s the clear focal point of this Houston passing game, especially in situations in which they are trailing. DeShaun Watson is going to get the start at QB, which will put the big play much more in play than when Tom Savage was at the helm. You can’t find this kind of volume at this price tag and reduced ownership. It’s a GPP play for sure, but it could put you way ahead of the field if things break right.
Back to the Well for Week 2
He disappointed the masses last week, but we’re going to run it back with Martavis Bryant this week in a tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Antonio Brown lit up the Cleveland Browns last week, which was a primary cause for Bryant’s reduced involvement. He still had six targets (four more than he needs to produce), and I think the Vikings will focus their attention on shutting Brown down. This will lead to more one-on-one opportunities and targets for Bryant, and he should break at least one big play (I’m betting on two, though). He has 30-40 fantasy point upside, and at his price (with what will likely be no ownership), he makes for a great GPP play.
Texans officially rule out four players with concussions and Alfred Blue (ankle) for Thursday night
Tight ends Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson, wide receiver Bruce Ellington, and linebacker Brian Cushing are all out for Thursday night’s game with concussions while Blue and guard Jeff Allen will be sidelined with ankle injuries. Greg Mancz, an 18-game starter in 2016 who earned a 79.9 PFF grade, will replace Allen. D’Onta Foreman will backup Lamar Miller and he’s expected to pick up a bigger workload this week. That won’t make him viable in DFS but will have a negative impact on Miller’s upside. At tight end, Houston promoted rookie Evan Baylis from the practice squad. Rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson will be making his first NFL start tomorrow when they visit the Bengals and he won’t coming into a great situation. Their offensive line is poor – which played a big part in the ten sacks the offense gave up and Lamar Miller’s 3.8 yards per carry – and they’ll be without Allen. Plus, with Will Fuller sidelined with a broken collarbone, Watson will have to rely on Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong, neither of whom have proven to be effective at the NFL level, and Baylis in his NFL debut. It would be hard for most quarterbacks to succeed with this group, let alone a rookie in his first start. It seems safe to expect DeAndre Hopkins to have an enormous market share but the Bengals will be ready and focused on taking him away. That will make it challenging for Hopkins to be efficient with his opportunities. The game total is currently sitting at 38 points and bettors have been hammering the Bengals’ side of the spread since they opened as three-point favorites. They’re currently favored by 6.5-points, which leaves Houston with an implied total of 15.75 points.
As reported by: Aaron Wilson Other tagged players: Deshaun Watson, Stephen Anderson, Bruce Ellington, Houston Texans
It's a Good Weekend to Go Fishing
Philip Rivers is too cheap, and his general consistency makes him one of the easiest plays of the week for me. With ownership likely gravitating towards all the high-priced QBs, his ownership should be down in GPPs, making him a great option to target. Miami will be playing in their season opener this weekend – the Dolphins are an inconsistent group that has shown vulnerability to the pass (they are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position over the past season plus). Jay Cutler and company could easily on offense to boot, which will give Rivers plenty of opportunities to accumulate fantasy points and build upon his underwhelming Week 1 performance against a stout Denver defense.
Ravens S Eric Weddle (undisclosed) didn't practice Wednesday
It’s not clear why Baltimore’s starting free safety is sidelined today as he played all but one snap in Week 1 against the Bengals. Weddle was excellent for the Ravens in 2016, forcing five turnovers and earning an elite 93.8 PFF grade as a 16-game starter.
Benglas DE Michael Johnson (concussion) officially ruled out for Thursday night
Cincinnati’s starting defensive end will miss their Week 2 matchup with the Texans tomorrow as he deals with a concussion. He’s earned poor grades from PFF the past three years but he was going to have the benefit of taking on one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Bengals couldn’t generate much pressure on Joe Flacco in Week 1, sacking him just once, but they should do better Thursday as Houston gave up ten in their opener. The Texans are currently implied to score just 15.75 points.
As reported by: Paul Dehner Jr. Colts will split first-team reps between Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien in practice this week
Indianapolis hasn’t decided who they’ll start under center in Week 2; it looks like they’ll open up a competition in practice this week. The Colts were terrible in Week 1 and their offense was paralyzed with Scott Tolzien at the helm. The quarterback finished with 128 yards, zero scores, and two picks on a 50% completion rate. As a team, they ran just 49 plays and only picked up ten first downs the entire afternoon. Tolzien was benched for Brissett during the game and it appears Brissett, who completed 2-of-3 passes for 51 yards, has the edge to start in Week 2 against the Cardinals. He did well in Week 4 of the preseason with New England, piling up 341 yards and four scores on a 71.8% completion rate against the Giants. He made three appearances and two starts last year, accumulating 400 yards with no scores and no interceptions. He’s also a capable runner – he picked up 83 yards on 16 carries in 2016. If he starts, it would appear to be an upgrade over Tolzien, even with a limited playbook.
As reported by: Zak Keefer Other tagged players: Scott Tolzien John Ross (knee) officially questionable for Thursday night
Ross was able to return to full practices this week and he’s considered questionable for tomorrow’s matchup with the Texans. Beat writer Jim Owczarski notes there weren’t any pads in practice due to the short week, so his participation is misleading, and he considers him a “long shot” to play. The receiver is recovering from a sprained knee and was inactive in Week 1. Cincinnati’s passing offense didn’t get off to a great start as Andy Dalton tossed four interceptions. Things won’t get much easier in Week 2 against one of the best defenses in the league. Although there was a lob sided final scored, Houston’s defense held Blake Bortles to 125 yards on a 52.4% completion rate (21 total attempts) and a lone touchdown. Dalton will continue to look for A.J. Green all over the field and Tyler Eifert in the red zone. Ross will be buried on the depth chart and likely limited if he plays.
As reported by: Paul Dehner Jr. Tyrod's Go-To Man?
The Bills lack viable options at receiver, and it appears as though Tyrod Taylor is comfortable using Charles Clay as his safety valve. Clay saw a whopping 33% of Taylor’s targets in Week 1, and though he caught just four of the nine targets, he did turn that into 53 yards and a touchdown. Clay is still very cheap across the industry and is a fine salary-saving tight end option to target in tournaments, while others attempt to pay up for Gronkowski or Kelce.
I'll Do Better This Week!
It wasn’t the greatest Redskins debut for Terrelle Pryor, but he did manage a respectable 6/66 line by the time all was said and done, and the most encouraging sign was that he saw 11 targets on the day. He is clearly going to be the go-to receiver for Kirk Cousins, and those targets should remain steady for much of the year. The touchdowns will come as well, and Pryor will get more comfortable with his new team. While the Rams defense looked dominant in Week 1, they were also facing Scott Tolzien. I would not shy away based on the matchup, and others likely will. Take advantage of that lower ownership.
Danny Amendola (concussion) and Dont'a Hightower (knee) didn't practice Wednesday
Amendola put up a solid 6/100/0 line on seven targets against the Chiefs prior to exiting in the fourth quarter with a concussion. He’ll need to pass through the concussion protocol in order to play in Week 2 but considering his history of head injuries, he may be closer to the doubtful side of things. Newly-acquired Phillip Dorsett will step into the number three role if Amendola misses time.
As reported by: Jeff Howe Don't Forget About Me!
I have a theory that the Bucs and Dolphins players are going to get ignored this week, because those two teams had an unexpected Week 1 bye thanks to Hurricane Irma. Everyone is chattering about the winners and losers from the opening week of games, but we have no data on these teams. Jay Ajayi looked terrific in his preseason touches and is one of the rare three down backs in the league, and the Dolphins have promised to utilize him more in the passing game. He’s one of my absolute favorite GPP plays of the week, and you can throw Jacquizz Rodgers into that same boat.
Jason Garrett won't rule CB Orlando Scandrick (hand) out for Week 2
Scandrick just had surgery on Monday to repair a broken hand but head coach Jason Garrett didn’t rule him out for Week 2. According to ESPN’s Todd Archer, DeMarco Murray had a similar surgery in 2014 and didn’t miss a single game.
As reported by: ESPN Soaring on Sunday Night
The Falcons passing game was relatively pedestrian in Week 1, but I would expect a better performance in a game that shapes up as a shootout on Sunday night between the Falcons and the Packers. Matt Ryan threw for 392 yards in the playoff win over Green Bay last year, and the Packers really don’t have a shut down corner capable of handling Julio Jones. Our preliminary ownership projections have Ryan in the 7-10% range, and I will gladly fire him up in tournaments at that level.
Terrance Williams and Brice Butler both dealing with ankle sprains
Williams will be limited in practice Wednesday while coach Jason Garrett will monitor Butler to determine how much he can participate. Williams led the team with 68 receiving yards against the Giants in Week 1 as Janoris Jenkins shut down Dez Bryant in shadow coverage. This week, Bryant won’t face a shadow and should match up with Bradley Roby a decent amount in sets with at least three receivers. Roby earned a poor 36.7 PFF game-grade in Week 1 and finished with a 48.7 in 2016. However, in terms of limiting fantasy production, he was effective, permitting just 0.22 fantasy points per route defended. Dallas faced a tough set of cornerbacks last week, which encouraged Dak Prescott to target Jason Witten a team-high nine times and led to Ezekiel Elliott setting a career-high with five catches. A similar approach may be taken by the second-year quarterback this week.
As reported by: Brandon George Other tagged players: Brice Butler, Ezekiel Elliott, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant