DFS Alerts
FanDuel PGA projected ownership: Patrick Cantlay among chalk in Rd 1-2, Fowler and Mickelson in Rd 3-4 slots
Patrick Cantlay is priced highly on DraftKings, but value-priced on FanDuel at just $5,700. The solo 2nd place showing at the Valspar Championship helps us overlook Cantlay’s small sample size of PGA Tour data and gives us extra confidence in rostering him in the lower risk Rd 1-2 slot. Most still look to roster golfers with the highest probabilities of making the cut in the Rd 3-4 slots on FanDuel. Golfers with strong upside to win a PGA Tour event are also heavily favored for the weekend slots. Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson fit the bill on both counts. They are both in good form, have strong course history at the Golf Club of Houston, and are attractively priced at $9,500 and $9,300 respectively on FanDuel. However, there are some concerns about elite players such as Fowler and Mickelson, being more focused on prepping for Augusta National that actually trying to win the Shell Houston Open. FanDuel PGA projected ownership values are now available on RotoGrinders.com to FanDuel PGA Premium content subscribers. Projected ownership data is provided for all golfers in both “Rd 1-2” and “Rd 3-4” FanDuel roster slots.
As reported by: RotoGrinders
Kevin Roth's Shell Houston Open weather report: Wet Finish
Kevin Roth’s weather report for the Shell Houston Open is now available on RotoGrinders.com. Rains should move out of the Humble, TX area tonight. Winds should start out and remain around 10mph throughout Thursday. Friday remains dry with light winds of just 0-5mph in the morning and increasing to around 10mph around noon. Winds increase further to the 10-15mph range on Friday afternoon. So there could be a slight tee-time advantage targeting the Thursday PM / Friday AM wave. Rainstorms are expected to return on Sunday. Click on the link below to review Kevin’s complete report.
As reported by: Kevin Roth on RotoGrinders Tony Finau, Jason Dufner, and Keegan Bradley among top DK value plays for the Shell Houston Open
All three golfers drive the ball well with Finau being the biggest bomber of the bunch averaging over 309 yards per drive. Distance will be advantageous this week due to the wide fairways and saturated grounds which should diminish roll off the tee. The trio of golfers all have excellent BoB% (Birdie or Better) metrics near 22% but Keegan Bradley often struggles with putting currently at 0.37 in SG:Putting over the last six events. The greens are fast at the Golf Club of Houston, reportedly registering near 13 feet on the Stimpmeter. However, K. Bradley should have the lowest GPP ownership near just 10% resulting in a very high ContR (Contrarian Rating) of 10.7. Dufner and Finau will have much higher ownership in both GPPs and Cash games. Several other high points/dollar golfers are found in the $7.3$7.7K salary range on DraftKings.
Pro-Am event cancelled due to storms, delays possible for Shell Houston Open starting on Thursday
Severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and even tornadoes have impacted the greater Houston area on Wednesday. Over an inch of rain has fallen in the Humble area through 3 PM this afternoon. Severe weather is expected to move out of the area by early evening. We’ve received no reports from the Shell Houston Open, but delays due to cleanup could be possible. We’ll pass along any official statements from the Golf Club of Houston as they become available.
As reported by: Shell Houston Open via Twitter Shell Houston Open weather update: Storms ending on Wednesday, could return on Sunday.
Chances of thunderstorms near the Golf Club of Houston currently exceed 75% by Wednesday afternoon with winds expected to peak at 17mph. But the rains should be moving out before early morning tee times on Thursday. Winds should remain manageable on Thursday and Friday in the 10-13mph range with minimal chances of rain. Winds pick up again on Saturday (17mph+) and another thunderstorm could delay the final round on Sunday. Be sure to review Kevin Roth’s SHO weather forecast on Wednesday.
As reported by: PGATour.com Russell Henley, Cameron Tringale among Golf Club of Houston course horses
Course history data is abundant for the Shell Houston Open and could receive extended consideration during roster construction this week. All golfers who have either won the SHO or finished runner-up since 2012 are again in the field for the 2017 event including Jim Herman (1st-2016), J.B. Holmes (1st-2015), Jordan Spieth (T2-2015), and Matt Kuchar (2nd-2014). But don’t overlook two other golfers with exceptional recent history at the Golf Club of Houston: Russell Henley and Cameron Tringale. Henley absolutely loves the course going T5-4th-T7 over the last three years. Tringale has made the cut in all six attempts since 2011 including 3 top-10 finishes during that span. DraftKings is obviously pricing in the strong course history, elevating the pair’s DK salaries (Henley at $8.7K, Tringale up to $7.4K) from usual ranges. Henley and Tringale did not receive significant SHO pricing boosts on FanDuel, coming in at just $6.9K and $5.8K respectively. Even at the elevated DK salary, Henley is one of the most talked about golfers of the week and we could see his DK GPP ownership exceed 15% for the first time in several months. Tringale’s inconsistent recent form is keeping his projected ownership very low on both sites.
David Hearn (personal) WDs from Shell Houston Open
David Hearn will forego his last shot to qualify for the 2017 Masters by withdrawing from the Shell Houston Open to be with his wife, Heather, as they are expecting their 3rd child in the very near future. Hearn’s form has improved of late making the cut in his last four events including two top-20 finishes. He opened the wrap-around 2016/2017 season by missing the cut in 4 of his first five events. Hearn is expected to return for the RBC Heritage in two weeks.
As reported by: Adam Stanley via Twitter DraftKings releases salaries for Shell Houston Open
Traditionally releasing PGA pricing on Monday mornings, DraftKings has been releasing PGA salaries on Monday afternoons over the last few weeks. Today’s delayed release enabled DK to remove Dustin Johnson (WD) from the salary list for this week’s Shell Houston Open. Initial DK pricing curiosities include Patrick Cantlay’s big salary hike to $8,600, Patrick Reed at just $7,700, and Roberto Castro being the last golfer on the salary list at the minimum $6,400.
FanDuel releases Shell Houston Open contests
Dustin Johnson is atop FanDuel’s salary list at $11,300. However, Dustin Johnson withdrew from the Shell Houston Open earlier today, so be sure he is removed from your selection process. Jordan Spieth now leads a strong field of golfers looking to make final adjustments to their games in preparation for The Masters starting next Thursday. Several standouts from last week’s Puerto Rico Open are also in the SHO field including all top-5 finishers: D.A. Points, Bill Lunde, Bryson DeChambeau, Retief Goosen, Peter Uihlein, Sam Saunders, and Whee Kim. Jon Curran has also withdrawn from the SHO citing a rib injury.
Dustin Johnson (rest) WDs from Shell Houston Open
After winning his last three events, Dustin Johnson is backing out of this week’s Shell Houston Open. He’s participated in the SHO three out of the last four years finishing in the top-5 twice in that time span. Johnson obviously feels his game is in great form and resting this week is the best course of action in preparation for the Masters starting on April 6th. He’s priced at $11,300 on DraftKings for the Master’s and will be a very popular play considering his incredible recent form and finishing in the top-10 the last two years at Augusta National.
As reported by: Jason Sobel via Twitter 30 minutes before roster lock: No WDs reported for Puerto Rico Open
We’ll continue monitoring news from Rio Grande, Puerto Rico and promptly relay any WD developments up to roster lock.
Value-plays, overlays persist on FanDuel for Puerto Rico Open
It’s the second week for PGA contests on FanDuel and the DFS community continues to experiment with strategies regarding the new scoring and roster format. Once again, big contrasts exist between FanDuel’s PGA pricing and that of other sites including DraftKings. Among the starkest disparities is Matt Jones who is priced highly at $9.3K on DraftKings (9th highest salary) and just $5.7K on FanDuel (#52 on FD salary list). Jones projects to have weak GPP ownership on DK but could have heavy ownership on FanDuel especially in a Rd 1-2 roster slot. An aggressive contrarian might completely fade Jones on FanDuel and increase exposure on DraftKings. Similar variations exist for Peter Uihlein and Brandon Hagy. DraftKings had some puzzling pricing anomalies earlier this season, but they seem to have subsided recently. It will be interesting to see how FanDuel’s PGA pricing evolves over the coming weeks. As of 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday night, significant overlays remain in most PGA contests on FanDuel.
Puerto Rico Open weather update: manageable winds, passing showers
RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth ventured beyond his usual forecast range for a look at the Puerto Rico Open. Overall, weather patterns still look wet but the winds should remain manageable. Winds look to stay in the 5-10mph range with a low chance of rain on Thursday morning. Rain chances increase on Thursday afternoon via a few passing showers. Thursday PM winds pick up a bit but should consistently remain near 10mph. Round two weather looks similar but with increased chances of rain late Friday morning and throughout Friday afternoon. Winds remain manageable on Friday. Rain chances increase further on Saturday. There could be a slight advantage to the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave due to the higher chances of sustained rains on Friday afternoon. Be sure to review Kevin’s complete forecast using the link below.
As reported by: Kevin Roth on RotoGrinders.com Puerto Rico Open WD watch: All clear through Wednesday afternoon
There are no reports of golfers with injuries or illness threatening participation in the Puerto Rico Open. Illnesses can arise out of nowhere and often times are not reported prior to a WD announcement. Danny Willett’s WD citing illness at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week surprised the DFS community and unfortunately was announced shortly after roster lock. Whee Kim and Cameron Percy withdrew during their last events citing injury, but they are both fully expected to tee it up at Coco Beach Golf and Country Club tomorrow. We’ll continue to monitor WD developments and pass along any relevant information up to roster lock occurring at 7:00 AM ET on Thursday morning.
Puerto Rico Open line movement favoring Luke List, Trey Mullinax, and Ryan Brehm
Odds to win the Puerto Rico Open notably improved on Tuesday for Luke List, Trey Mullinax, and Ryan Brehm. Odds worsened for most higher-priced DraftKings golfers. Of the golfers priced above $9.7K on DK, only List and Scott Brown saw their odds improve. List’s odds now nearly match those of Graeme McDowell, who is priced $400 more at $10.3K. Long-hitting Trey Mullinax’ odds are now approaching 80/1, making him a very enticing option in the $6.5K DK salary range. Opening at close to 300/1, Ryan Brehm is now at 150/1 on some sites. Brehm is sitting at the very bottom of the DK salary list at $5.9K. The improving odds and 5-of-5 cuts made game log optics are pushing Brehm’s ownership projections higher. Notable golfers in which odds are drifting include Matt Jones, JT Poston, and Ian Poulter. In a week of diminished statistical resources and less recognizable golfers in the field, the DFS community could increase reliance on odds and line movement analysis.