DFS Alerts

Top 15 Upside At A Reasonable Price

The positive momentum continues to build with Grillo, and the tee-to-green game remains as steady as ever. He gained around six strokes vs. the field from tee to green a week ago, and he was right around field average with the flat stick. That’s a positive development when you consider how poor his putter was over the first few months of 2019. He currently sits at 38th in par five scoring and 22nd in ball striking. Grillo is 3-for-3 making the cut here with a pair of top 25 finishes. It’s not the most likely outcome, but he has the ability to contend for a win at a very reasonable price point. I’ll load up once again.

Trending In The Right Direction

When he first came onto the PGA Tour, Aaron Wise stormed onto the scene with immediate success. A predictable lull followed, but Wise finally seems to be coming around again. He is riding a streak of four consecutive cuts made, and his game is a fine fit on paper for Muirfield Village. He ranks just outside the top 50 on the PGA Tour in par five scoring, and he ranks 23rd in ball striking. He’s capable of scoring in bunches on courses where birdies are available, too. While he did miss the cut here last year, I’m not holding that against him when you consider the difference in form between 2018 and 2019. The current trends are all positive, and this might be one of the final chances where we can buy low in DFS.

When he first came onto the PGA Tour, Aaron Wise stormed onto the scene with immediate success. A predictable lull followed, but Wise finally seems to be coming around again. He is riding a streak of four consecutive cuts made, and his game is a fine fit on paper for Muirfield Village. He ranks just outside the top 50 on the PGA Tour in par five scoring, and he ranks 23rd in ball striking. He’s capable of scoring in bunches on courses where birdies are available, too. While he did miss the cut here last year, I’m not holding that against him when you consider the difference in form between 2018 and 2019. The current trends are all positive, and this might be one of the final chances where we can buy low in DFS.

Kevin Na is no longer in the field

Fresh off his win at The Charles Schwab Challange, Kevin Na has decided to take a pass on this week’s Memorial Tournament. Na will be replaced in the field by Kelly Kraft. Salaries were just released, so we should see Kraft added within the next 24 hours

Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report

Ten minutes until roster lock and there is no major news to report. Jason Kokrak made headlines with an early week withdrawal, so if for some reason he is still in your builds please remove him. Wind will be a factor this week, but there should not be an edge as far as a favorable tee time draw. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.

Weather update for The Charles Schwab Challenge

Kevin Roth’s weather report for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge is up in the main forum. Typical of spring weather in Texas golfers will face winds throughout the tournament. With a similar forecast for all four days, we can use weather a bit differently this week. Normally we look to see if an edge can be gained by stacking one tee time wave over another. This week however there seems to be almost no edge in a tee time draw, but due to the predicted weather conditions, you can target golfers who you feel play better in the wind. The wind will not be significant enough to only pick players who play well in the wind but instead used to help make a decision between two golfers.

Brandt Snedeker stands out as a great source of value at Colonial

With almost two-thirds of the season in the books, Brandt Snedeker is quietly putting together another solid season on the PGA Tour. Currently ranked in the 41st position in the FedEx Cup Snedeker still has some work to do if he plans on playing in his first Tour Championship since the 2016 season. With four top 25 or better finishes in his last six starts including an impressive T16 at last week’s PGA Championship Snedeker heads into this week with a bit of momentum on his side. Colonial Country Club is a perfect venue for his game as Snedeker can play to his strength of fairways and greens. Looking to improve on a perfect 8 for 8 cut record including a runner up finish at the 2015 Charles Schwab Challange, Snedeker stands out as a great value play for the week. With both a high floor and a decent chance at having a high ceiling, Snedker is one of the few players in his price range that can be considered for both cash and GPP’s.

Danny Lee looks to continue his solid play at Colonial

There was a time in his career where Danny Lee was considered one of the better young talents in golf. With a very impressive amateur career highlighted by a U.S. Amateur win, Lee seemed destined for great golf at the next level. Like many others before him, Lee has struggled to produce in comparison to the expectations placed upon him. That being said Lee has molded himself into a solid tour player and claimed his first PGA Tour victory at the 2015 Greenbrier. Lee started off on fire at last week’s PGA but faded on the weekend to finish inside the top 40. Priced down in this week’s field, Lee represents one of the better value plays when you factor in his course history at Colonial. In his last five starts at Colonial Lee has gained an average of six shots tee to green. With four top 25 or better finishes during this span, Lee stands out as a good source of value for the week.

Tee-to-Green Machine

Making his first appearance at this course since a missed cut way back in 2010. His game is on an entirely different planet now, especially in the ball-striking department. Over the last 12 months he’s gained strokes tee-to-green in roughly 77 percent of his measured rounds. That is first in the entire field. The names right below him? Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, and Bryson DeChambeau. Why are we getting such a discount on An? First, he’s one of the worst putters on TOUR. Second, he withdrew from an event just a few weeks ago with a neck injury. That makes him a little risky but he returned last week at Bethpage and managed to gained 3 strokes tee-to-green before missing the cut. With a weaker field to face this week combined with smaller greens to work with, I think we see An put himself back in the mix. The risk of WD makes him GPP-only for me but a ton of upside here.

No Distance? No Problem

Furyk seems to pop in my model at every course that isn’t driver-heavy. While Furyk may still hit driver here, he won’t be at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the field. He hits fairways and is great with his irons. In fact, he is ranked sixth or better in this field in strokes gained total, strokes gained approach, proximity, and bogey avoidance. My course history only goes back 10 years, but I believe Furyk won here many moons ago. It’s a great course fit and this is a great price thanks to two missed cuts in a row.

Always Trust the HOFF in Texas

There are two rules when it comes to the HOFF — always play him at The Masters and always play him in Texas. It’s really that simple. His statistics don’t look amazing on paper, but they look a lot better over his last five events. He’s great with his long irons, which is evidenced in the fact that he’s ranked sixth in this field from the key proximity ranges. He has played here eight times over the last 10 years and has never missed a cut. He’s also been in good form recently, making each of his last five cuts, including a T2 at the Valero Texas Open.

Loves the Greens at Colonial

Grillo nearly picked up a win here last season when he gained over 10 strokes putting on the field. I typically like to see strong tee to green performances from my golfers, but Grillo being comfortable on these greens certainly doesn’t hurt. If we look at his recent ball striking, he has gained 5.2, 4.7, and 5.8 strokes on the field in his last three tournaments. He is good with his long irons and while he’s not a great putter in general, he actually fares very well on bentgrass greens. He’s on record saying he loves this course and that clearly checks out when we look at his course history.

Gut Don't Fail Me Now

This pick is very unlike me, but I have the strongest feeling in my gut that Spieth is going to win this week. I’ve learned it’s better to trust your gut and be wrong than to go against it and have it be right. Spieth is coming off of his best finish in more than a year, but his T3 at the PGA Championship was bolstered by 10+ strokes putting. Obviously, that’s not sustainable. Spieth might be one of the best putters in the world, but we can’t expect that each and every week. I was more impressed by the fact that he gained strokes ball striking in an incredibly difficult field on a course that didn’t really suit his game. He now gets to play at Colonial Country Club where he has never missed a cut and where he has four top seven finishes. This is a second shot course that rewards good iron play and a good short game. He’ll have a ton of confidence heading into the week and he’s arguably the most motivated of any of the elite golfers teeing it up this week.

Bryson DeChambeau looks to bounce back from a missed cut

With five International wins in the last year, Bryson DeChambeau has quickly asserted himself as a player of significance on The PGA Tour. Heading into this week on the heels of back to back missed cut’s DeChambeau will look to get his game back on track at Colonial Country Club. When you look at his poor recent play in comparison to other golfers in the same price range it’s pretty easy to see how DeChambeau could get overlooked this week. In his few years on Tour DeChambeau has a track record of being one of the better ball strikers on tour. Ranked inside the top 25 measured ball striking metrics of players in this field, DeCambeau should be a natural fit for a golf course the demands accuracy tee to green. The strong difference between DeChambeau’s talent and his poor recent play creates a great opportunity to create leverage for GPP’s this week. For those of you who like narratives, DeChambeau is a strong student of both the game of golf and the golf swing. Playing at the home of Ben Hogan, a man many consider to have the best swing of all time, DeChambeau could have a little extra motivation to play well this week.

Paul Casey leading the way in early week POWN

For a long time, the knock on Paul Casey is that he did not win enough in comparison to his level of talent. With a win in each of his last two seasons, Casey has clearly made strides in that area. Priced down in this week’s field, Casey is an early leader in POWN for the week. Always a strong performer in strokes gained metrics, Casey ranks high in this week’s field in both strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. Making his sixth start at Colonial Country Club, Casey will look to improve on two career top ten or better showings. The only alarming thing about Casey this season has been a few bad rounds in pretty big spots. Those bad rounds have resulted in a few missed cuts, which is not something we normally see out of Casey. That being said his three missed cuts this season is still a small number, but for a player who only missed three combined cuts the prior two years, there is some concern in regards to Casey being a safe bet. When you take the time to look back at Casey’s bad rounds it’s pretty easy to see that big numbers are to blame for his poor play. Not normally known as a player who makes a ton of big numbers Casey already has made a few costly mistakes leading to poor missed cuts at both The Players Championship and The Masters. Nevertheless, there is not a ton of merit outside of game theory to fade someone of Casey’s talent in this week’s field. An elite ball striker with one win under his belt, Casey has a great chance to compete for his second win of the season this week.