DFS Alerts
Field update for The Corales Championship
It’s not uncommon for the event running in opposition to a WGC or a Major Championship to suffer in terms of depth of talent as well as a ton of player movement. PGA Tour veterans Shaun Micheel, Angel Cabrera, and Ken Duke have all decided to take a pass on this week’s event. We could see more player movement as the week unfolds so please make sure to check back prior to roster lock. For now please remove the players tagged in this alert from your roster builds.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Angel Cabrera, Ken Duke
Way Too Cheap Across the Industry
These type of events always seem to have a few golfers that are mis-priced. After running my model, Schenk rates out as the ninth best golfer in the field, yet he’s the 34th most expensive on DraftKings, the 24th most expensive on FanDuel, and the 26th most expensive on FantasyDraft. He has played here each of the last three years, posting finishes of T35, T12, and T41. He’s ranked fifth in this field in strokes gained approach and seventh in par five scoring. He checks all the boxes — form, course history, course fit, and a good value.
Good Bet to Make the Cut
Ownership is always tough to predict in these alternate events, but I doubt Etulain’s ownership will be too high this week. Everyone will be focusing on birdie making, ball striking, and course history. He doesn’t exactly stand out in any of those categories. While I do think you need to strike the ball well to compete here, Etulain makes up most of his strokes on and around the greens. He has quietly made seven of his last eight cuts on tour and now gets to play in a much weaker field than he’s become accustomed to. He’s a good bet to make the cut and hopefully finish somewhere in the top 20.
One of the Streakiest Golfers on Tour
Sabbatini is one of the streakiest golfers on tour. He’ll have a four-week stretch where he doesn’t finish outside of the top 25 and then he’ll miss his next four cuts. This is a great time to hop on board after posting finishes of T36, T35, and T18 over his last three events on tour. It’s worth noting that all three of those events had much stronger fields. While his short game is hit or miss, he’s a good ball striker that cards a ton of birdies. He’s affordable across the industry and it doesn’t hurt that he played here last season, posting a T43 finish.
Rounding into Form at the Perfect Time
After a really poor stretch of golf to start the season, Dahmen has found form over his last two events. He posted a T12 at The PLAYERS Championship in the deepest field of the year and then backed it up with a T30 at the Valspar Championship. He’s always been an elite ball striker, which is one of the statistics that I will be keying in on this week. In this field, he’s ranked in the top 15 in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach. The icing on the cake is that he has played here two times in the last three years, posting finishes of T13 and T11.
Big Advantage Off the Tee
Mullinax is my pick to win this week. He’s an elite ball striker that has posted a number of high finishes this season in much tougher fields. He has quietly made eight of his last nine cuts on tour, gaining strokes tee to green in every tournament but one. This course is an easy Par 72 where the winning score will likely be in the 20-under par range. Mullinax is ranked fourth in the field in strokes gained off the tee and fourth in bogey avoidance. His distance off the tee will be a premium this week and if he can avoid the bogeys, he’ll be right there on Sunday. He has played this event two times, posting finishes of T22 and T11.
Best Golfer in the Field
Im is the class of the field this week and will likely be the highest owned golfer in DFS. The model that I build each week rates golfers from 1-100. Im has a score of 99.8 with the next closes being Jhonattan Vegas at 91.0. In this field, Im is ranked sixth or better in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, opportunities gained, and bogey avoidance. He’s also strong on and around the greens. The only argument against him is that he has been playing a ton of golf recently and that he might be looking forward to bigger tournaments on the PGA Tour. I don’t see that as a good enough reason to fade him, especially at this price point.
Punt Play
Lebioda is a newcomer to the PGA Tour who will definitely be flying under the radar for this event. He ranks inside the top 25% of this field in ball striking and should give himself plenty of birdie looks. The problem is that he really isn’t all that good with the flat stick, and that was the knock on him coming out of the Web.Com Tour. However, he obviously thrived on that Tour and has now made four of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour. I’m fine with a young golfer that is trending in the right direction, especially when said golfer comes with a value price tag. I’m in.
Just Too Cheap
To put it simply, this is just a misfire with the pricing from virtually all the sites. Schenk is a reasonable cut-maker on regular full field PGA Tour events, having survived 11 of 15 cuts so far this season. He ranks inside the top third of this field in driving distance and putting, and he simply doesn’t belong with the other golfers around his price tag. He will likely be chalky, but I am fine with that when it’s clearly a golfer who is not priced appropriately. Give Schenk a look in all formats.
Solid With Some Upside
Dahmen faded a bit over the weekend at the Valspar a week ago, but he is still clearly a top 15 option in this weak field event. He has now posted back-to-back top 30 finishes, and he also played here a year ago. He finished that event with a solid 13th place finish, and Dahmen carries a nice combination of safety and upside here. As long as he can be reasonably effective on the greens, he should contend.
Ready For A Winner
I have been REALLY impressed with this young golfer over the past few months, and he seemingly puts himself in the mix every single week. Im is coming off a great week at the Valspar and is one of the top golfers in this weaker field with a top 25 overall ranking in ball striking and a top 45 ranking in birdie or better percentage. It would really surprise me if he misses the cut here, and he has the best odds in the field of grabbing a top 20 finish. There isn’t a major weakness in his game, and he has been dialed in from tee to green. Im is my priority play in all formats, and I hope the high price tag scares some people away. Go grab a win, Sungjae!
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over fifteen minutes until the roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front. Outside of John Huh, J.J Spaun, and Sean O’Hair withdrawing earlier in the week, there has been no player movement to report. ResultsDB will be up and running within 10 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: J.J. Spaun, Sean O'Hair Weather update for The Valspar Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather report for this week’s event is up in the main forum. Players will face a healthy dose of Florida sunshine all four days. For DFS purposes it looks like there is a chance that Thursday afternoon could be a bit stronger in terms of wind gust in comparison to Friday. With forecasted gusts having the potential of reaching 20 mph at times on Thursday afternoon, you might have the urge to stack tee time waves, but keep in mind it’s hard to forecast a wind gust and overall the wind in terms of mph should be the same both days. Weather could be used as a tie breaker between two golfers, but for the most part, it looks like golfers will face the same conditions for the first two rounds.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Henrik Stenson continues to gain steam
Henrik Stenson has not exactly started the 2019 season in best form. Stenson has only made two cuts in his last six international starts. Poor first round play in his last two PGA Tour starts resulted in Stenson having to shoot lights out on Friday just in order to make the cut. Stenson was not able to duplicate Friday’s round from the Arnold Palmer Invitational to The Players Championship last week, so this former major champion heads into this week trying to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut. If you just looked at the recent form and saw that Stenson is trending in our ownership projections then you might just assume it’s a great spot for a fade. Copperhead is a course custom built for Stenson’s game. One of the premier second shot players in the game of golf, Stenson has gained 26 shots total over his last 4 starts at Copperhead despite missing the cut last year. His bad rounds over the last few weeks have been from a lack of birdies, and at a course that will yield fewer low scores, it would be easier for a Stenson to stay in the mix with just solid golf. The combination, of course fit and overall talent has Stenson trending in ownership despite his poor current form.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership John Huh has withdrawen from The Valspar Championship
In what has been a busy week in terms of player movement, John Huh adds his name to the list of players pulling out of the tournament. No injury new associated with this news. Huh has been replaced in the field by Benjamin Silverman.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Benjamin Silverman