DFS Alerts
Joaquin Niemann looks to turn his season around
With 4 top ten finishes in his first 8 events as professional, Joaquin Niemann quickly became the darling of DFS golf. With only sponsor’s invites to work with Niemann played well enough to earn full status on the PGA Tour this year. Even though its common place to see young players succeed early and often in their careers, the 20-year-old Niemann has struggled to gain the form displayed last year. Playing in his first Valspar Championship, Niemann is the type of player that can have success at this venue. Copperhead is more of a second shot course and less of a bombers paradise. All of Niemann’s success thus far in his PGA Tour career has come at similar courses. Priced down due to his poor recent play, Niemann stands out as a great value play for the week. A made cut and a top 30 or better finish would easily pay off his salary, making it easier to take a flyer on what is still a very talented player. Prior to his current streak of amazing play, Bryson DeChambeau also struggled early in his PGA Tour career, so while it’s disconcerting to see Niemann struggle, there is always hope that talent wins out in the long run.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown
Jason Kokrak is a great fit for this course
The string of good play continues for Jason Kokrak. In years past we would just pick him on a week where his game fit the course, but with much-improved play, Kokrak has been a player you could roster often this season. Always a great fit on less than driver courses, Kokrak has a great track record at Copperhead. Kokrak has gained 19 shots tee to green over the last five Valspar Championships. Looking to improve on 3 top 15 or better finishes at this event, Kokrak heads into this week with 4 top 20 or better finishes in his last six starts. Having not missed a cut since July of last year, Kokrak is playing some of the best golf of his career. Statistically speaking there has not been much of a change in his strokes gained stats from year to year. Kokrak is slightly better at ball striking stats this season, and his putting stats still stink. The main difference in Kokrak’s game over this period seems to be in his ability to make better choices. Less big numbers lead to lower scores which create a few more opportunities to play the weekend. Priced up due to recent play, Kokrak could get overlooked in roster builds that choose to cram in a high priced stud. Trending in the right direction at a course that fits his game, Kokrak makes for a great play despite his increased price.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Sungjae Im is still as strong value play despite a few missed cuts
Fueled by a handful of strong early season finishes, PGA Tour rookie Sungjae Im finds himself in the top 30 of The FedEx Cup race at this point in the season. Generally, PGA Tour rookies are going to struggle to adjust to playing on the best tour in golf. In addition to seeing most courses for the first time, rookies are also faced with the task of playing against some of the strongest fields in golf. Im has missed a few cuts of late, but that should be expected of a tour rookie. Im made a hole in one late on Friday and narrowly missed making the cut in his first ever Players Championship appearance. Copperhead will require accuracy with iron play, and Im currently ranks inside the top 40 in strokes gained approach. Value looks to be a bit thin this week, and Im has played well enough at times this season to forecast well in our projections model for the week. With 6 top 25 or better finishes in his 10 made cuts, Im has shown more than enough upside to pay off his price for the week. Avoiding big numbers will be the key to making the cut and having a chance to play well on the weekend. Currently ranked inside the top 40 in bogey avoidance for the season, Im has only posted 5 rounds over 72 this season. All but one of his missed cuts have been very close to the cut line, which indicates that this PGA Tour rookie plays a style of golf that seems to give him a chance.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool J.J. Spaun is no longer in the field
J.J. Spaun is no longer in The Valspar field and has been replaced by Alex Prugh. Spaun withdrew at last week’s Players Championship after round one with no explanation. It’s probably safe to assume that whatever kept Spaun out last week is behind his absence yet again this week. Prior to last week, Spaun had made seven straight cuts and at times had been a great value option based upon his course fit. Hopefully Spaun is able to get back to action soon.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Alex Prugh Sean O'Hair is no longer in the field
Sean O’Hair has decided to take a pass on The Valspar Championship. He has been out since The Honda, so with his past success at this event, you would figure that he is not quite healthy enough to return to action. O’Hair was replaced in the field by Shawn Stefani.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Shawn Stefani Hopefully a Sleeper this Week
I’m writing this as of Tuesday morning and am itching to see what Castro’s ownership projection looks like. I highly doubt he’ll get much buzz, but I’ve never been an ownership guru. There are weeks when random values become overly chalky. As long as that’s not the case with Castro this week, I will be loading up on him in all formats. He has quietly made eight of his last nine cuts with three top 25 finishes during that stretch. He has been very good with his irons (seventh in strokes gained approach in this field) and he doesn’t bleed strokes on the par threes (there are five of them this week). He has missed three straight cuts here, but he hasn’t played here since 2016 and he missed the cut right on the number.
Approach + Scrambling = Success at Copperhead
If around the green game is important this week, then we should absolutely have interest in Cauley, who is ranked first in this field in that statistic. In the past, we’ve thought of Cauley as a ball striker without a short game, but after being forced to miss a lot of last season, he obviously put in some work around the greens. His irons finally came alive last week at the PLAYERS Championship where he gained four strokes on approach. If that continues this week and he can continue to gain strokes around the green, he could really surprise some people with a high finish.
Gained Over 12 Strokes on Approach in his Last Two Events
Knox is another shorter hitter that gains most of his strokes with his irons. While he doesn’t have the same short game as Kisner or Snedeker, this is still a good course for what he does best and it’s worth noting that he’s ranked 25th in the field in strokes gained around the green. It’s really just his putter that has let him down recently. He has gained 12 strokes on approaches in his last two events on tour and has quietly made nine straight cuts. He has a nice track record at this course, making four of his last five cuts. The only cut he missed here (2017) was right on the number.
Reuniting with his Former Coach
I’m basically going to make the same argument for Snedeker that I did for Kisner. While I’ll agree that he is slightly overpriced in this field, I’m willing to pay a premium for the type of golfers that I want to target at Copperhead. Snedeker brought back his old coach from when he was playing his best golf (many years ago) and the two got along great in the practice rounds leading into the PLAYERS Championship. Snedeker gained eight strokes with his approaches last week and finished in a tie for fifth. He immediately Tweeted that he was excited about his game and the next few weeks. He has made seven straight cuts at this event and is fifth in this field on strokes gained putting on Bermuda grass.
Trending in the Right Direction
If you haven’t noticed already, I’m targeting a very specific type of golfer this week. I’m typically very price-sensitive in PGA DFS, but am willing to pay a premium for golfers that fit the mold that I’m looking for. Kisner will rarely compete on long courses because he doesn’t have the distance needed off the tee. His best finishes are all on these shorter tracks where he can gain strokes on approach, around the green, and with his putter. I’m typically not a huge Kisner fan when it comes to DFS, but his recent ball striking has caught my attention. He has gained strokes on approach in three straight tournaments and five of his last six. He’s rounding into form and gets to play a course that should highlight his skill set.
Spitting Fire with the Irons
Kokrak hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship. He is shedding labels left and right. In the past, we’ve thought of Kokrak as an inconsistent bomber that plays well on long courses. That hasn’t been the case at all this season. He has played well on every course put in front of him. The big reason to like him this week is that he has gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He’s also ranked in the top ten in this field in birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, and proximity from the key distances. He has made four of his last five cuts here with two top ten finishes, so he clearly has an eye for the course.
Great Form, Great Fit, Great Course History
Furyk nearly became the oldest PLAYERS champion in history. He hit an amazing approach that he walked after on 18 to about three feet and posted a score of 15-under. Ultimately, he lost by a single stroke to Rory McIlroy. He now gets to play a course that fits his game a little better. To win here, you have to be lights out with your irons, you have to be creative around the greens, and you have to putt. Furyk has all three of those working right now. He is a former winner of this event and has made at least nine straight cuts here (I only checked 10 years of course history). It feels strange paying this much for Furyk, but the form and the course fit are too good to pass up.
Good Track for Mr. Simpson
This is a strange track that forces driver out of the hands of golfers on most holes. Jason Day, Jon Rahm, and Dustin Johnson all gain a ton of strokes off the tee, which is largely irrelevant this week. I’m going to fade the big names in my main lineups and start with Webb Simpson, who is accurate off the tee, great with his irons, and has one of the best short games on tour. He really doesn’t have a weakness in his game outside of a lack of distance off the tee, which shouldn’t come into play this week. He’s a great putter on Bermuda grass, he’s ranked number two in my key statistics for the week, and he comes into the event in solid form. He hasn’t missed a cut since June and has posted five top 10 finishes during that stretch.
Punt Value
If you want a deep sleeper this week, give Carlos Ortiz a look. He is a very talented golfer, and the only thing missing from his profile has been consistent play at the PGA Tour level. That has still been elusive, but two of his last three starts have been pretty impressive with a 9th place finish at the Genesis Open and a top 30 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks above PGA Tour average in scrambling, bogey avoidance, tee to green play, and ball striking. While just above average isn’t great, it’s solid enough in this field, and Ortiz carries a dirt cheap price tag on every site. I’ll gladly use Ortiz as a way to round out my rosters here.
A Bounce Back Spot
This pick isn’t totally about the statistical measures. By all accounts, Hadwin’s game has definitely lagged so far in 2019. The ball striking has still been there, but he’s been pretty hit or miss with everything else. He has alternated good and bad starts over his last four events (18th-75th-33rd-MC), but this represents a good spot for him to find some form. The weaker field is a nice bonus, as is the mid-range price tag. Hadwin has finished 1st and 12th here over the last two editions, firing eight consecutive rounds of par or better. That’s impressive around this place, and he seems to have a great feel for the short game at Innisbrook. He’s a great bounce-back candidate for GPP formats in this spot.