DFS Alerts
California Love
Sticking with the theme of Cali Comfort, Harkins had this to say last year in Palm Springs, “Growing up in California, it’s very comfortable for me. Now living in Scottsdale, that’s another one. So that’s some of it, I feel very comfortable out here and it’s nice to have a lot of support, family and friends out, it’s really good.” It’s a pretty small sample, but it’s worth noting that Harkins has THE BEST strokes gained per round in California of anyone in the field. He posted four top 15s in the Golden State last year, including a T9 here at Silverado.
A Fine Combination of Safety and Upside
Moore would be my first pick for cash games this week, as his steady nature works well at this course. The poa greens should also help his putting get back on track after he really struggled in that department over the summer. His tee-to-green game is always steady, and he’s an obvious top play in this field if he can just putt the ball at field average. Moore’s first two trips to Silverado have both yielded top 20 finishes, and he’s the safest of the high-end options. The dip in salary on all sites from Cantlay to Moore also might help you round out your roster a little better, making Moore a fine play in both cash games and GPP formats.
A Star in the Making?
You want new Web.Com Tour graduates? We’e got new Web.Com Tour graduates! My favorite option of the bunch this week is Sungjae Im. You want to get on the solid new PGA Tour golfers before the herd does, and this might be one of the only chances to get Im at both a discounted price tag AND low ownership. He made 20 of 25 cuts on the Web.Com Tour a year ago with solid metrics and 14 top 25 finishes. He’s solid throughout his bag and is my pick to be the breakout golfer of the season. I will caution against using TOO many of these golfers in the first go ‘round, but there is certainly sound reasoning behind plucking out a few of your favorites as part of your GPP player pool.
Ready for a Rebound Year
Reavie had a bit of a disastrous summer, missing five straight cuts from the U.S. Open to the RBC Canadian Open. He rebounded with three solid finishes in his last four starts of the year, and he tends to thrive in events that are played on courses like the one we have for this event. His ball striking and approach play are both well above average in this field, and the relatively cheap price tag is a nice bonus. He’s made the cut in this event every year since it moved to Silverado in 2014, and I look for him to get his new season rolling on the right foot. If I was making just one roster this week, Reavie would almost certainly be a part of it.
A Great Course Fit
If I had to hand-pick my favorite PGA Tour course fit for Grillo, Silverado might well be the one that I would pick. He won here in his debut in 2015 and has added a pair of top 30 finishes since. He finished last season with solid top 45 ranks in both ball striking and strokes gained on approach, while only missing two cuts for the entire year. There’s winning upside here, and Grillo obviously loves this layout. Fire him up with confidence in your GPP builds.
Twenty minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
Ten minutes until roster lock and as expected it’s quiet on the news front this morning. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Tony Finau continues to out perform expectations
In what has been one of the better storylines of this season, Tony Finau can cap off an amazing season with a chance to win the 10 million dollar first place FedEx Cup prize. A top ten machine this season, Finau can now be reargued as more than just a golfer who relies on his ability to crush the golf ball. Four of his eleven top tens this season have come in the last month and a half, and Finau is once again priced too low in comparison to his talent. This newest member of the Ryder Cup team is a person worth adding to your rosters regardless of his projected ownership. Based on his DK scoring this season, not his PGA wins, Finau should be a top 3 or 4 priced golfer in this field. Finau’s ability to put up DK scoring regardless of his finish position makes him a clear cut fan favorite for the last tournament of the 2018 season.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Brooks Koepka still has plenty to play for this week
At the beginning of the 2018 PGA Tour season, Brooks Koekpa faced a ton of uncertainty to not only this year but perhaps his whole career. A nagging wrist injury forced Koepka to miss almost a quarter of the season. There was some doubt if this budding superstar would ever return from the injury. Motivated to prove others wrong Koepka returned to the PGA Tour to win two out of the last three majors of the season. With a win this week, Kopeka would move to the number one spot in the world rankings as well as slam the door shut on any doubt to why he should be player of the year. With the Ryder Cup right around the corner, and a so much left to play for this week Koepka is in a great spot to once again steal the spotlight. Cheaper than other big named golfers at the top end of the pricing pool Koepka makes for a perfect fit in a wide variety of roster builds this week.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown Paul Casey returns from injury
In what turned out to be a long drawn out weather-delayed BMW Championship, Paul Casey withdrew prior to the final round due to a sore back. Casey returns this week an appears healthy and ready to compete ahead of The Ryder Cup. One of the better ball strikers on Tour, Casey will look to post his 4th consecutive top five or better finish at East Lake. Casey’s only other trip to East Lake occurred at the end of the 2010 season where he also finished inside the top 5. In 16 rounds at East Lake Casey is a combined 27 under par making him one of the strongest course history options for the week. Priced down to poor recent form, Casey remains a strong option in all formats this week.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown Cameron Smith flying under the radar
Currently ranked in the 10th position in the FedEx Cup standings, 25-year-old Cameron Smith is having his best PGA Tour season to date. Back to back 3rd place finishes at the first two events of the playoff run have allowed Smith a great opportunity to play for a bunch of money this weekend. Value and low ownership are very hard items to come by this week, but Smith is a player that could potentially fill both of those things this week. Currently projected at a sub 10% ownership, Smith has proven he can play with the best players at this point in the season. Playing in his first every Tour Championship, Smith has an opportunity to be a difference maker in GPP roster builds for the last tournament of the 2018 season.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Billy Horschel continues to outperform expectations
Billy Horschel is not afraid to ride a hot streak. When he went on to win the FedEx Cup during the 2014 season, Horschel did so from a 69th starting position at the start of the race. Wins at both the BMW and the Tour Championship allowed for Horschel to claim the best season of his career. With some off the course family issues now behind him, Horschel started off this FedEx Cup season in a similar fashion. The momentum gained by his 3rd place finish at the Northern Trust was stalled due to disappointing withdrawal at The Dell Technologies Championship. Horschel bounced back for another 3rd place finish at the BMW the following week and enters this tournament with a ton of momentum. Priced down in this strong field, Horschel is a chalk value play worth paying attention to this week. Playing some of his best golf of the season, Horschel knows what it takes to win at East Lake and is a good spot to perhaps win his second FedEx Cup.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Ball Striking Machine
Woodland is sort of my wildcard pick of the week. There’s a decent chance that his short game doesn’t show up and that he finishes toward the bottom of the pack. However, if he is average on and around the greens, he could really make some noise. His tee to green game has been amazing over the last couple of months and he’s no stranger to East Lake, playing here in four of the last five years.
Ignore the "Back" Injury
Casey withdrew from the BMW Championship. He was in a tie for 50th and play on Sunday was rained out. People will worry about his “back” injury, but he clearly opted to rest instead of staying around for the rainy Monday finish. Based on his social media, he seems ready to go this week. I will gladly take the ownership discount and the pricing discount, especially at a course where he has been dominant over the last three years — 5th, 4th, 5th. His form has been an issue for a while, but I’m banking on talent and solid course history here.
Pivot off of the Chalk
The chalk play in this range is going to be Billy Horschel. While I love the way his game is trending, I just can’t bring myself to play a 40% owned Horschel. Instead, I will be pivoting to the likes of Cantlay, Casey, and Woodland. Cantlay is one of a handful of golfers that is ranked in the top ten in this field in strokes gained off the tee and on approaches. He actually had a good ball striking week at the BMW Championship, he just lost seven strokes putting. It was basically the same recipe last year at this event where he was solid tee to green and couldn’t sink a putt. I’m hoping he can have an average week with the flatstick and he’ll easily pay off this salary.
The Summer of Bryson
DeChambeau won the first two legs of the FedEx Cup and like Finau, secured a spot on the Ryder Cup team. He admitted that he was extremely gassed heading into the BMW Championship, so the week off will certainly do him some good. This has been the summer of Bryson, as he has won three times in the last few months. In this field, he’s ranked in the top ten in strokes gained off the tee, approach, birdie or better percentage, and bogey avoidance. I’ll take the discount and play him in all formats, even at high ownership.