10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 1st
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, August 1st.
1. Since 2015, Chris Archer’s 2.95 ERA at home ranks 19th in MLB among qualified starters. His ERA on the road…it’s 4.39, which ranks 75th. On Monday, he’s at home against a Royals team that, when away from Kauffman Stadium this year, ranks 29th or worse in MLB in wOBA (.290), ISO (.121), and wRC+ (79).
2. Stephen Strasburg is one of only three qualified starters in MLB this year – Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta being the others – with a sub-.260 wOBA against both right- and left-handed batters.
3. Danny Duffy’s matchup against the Rays on Monday is an interesting one. On the one hand, he allows a 37.1% hard hit rate against right-handed batters (13th-highest in MLB), and he’s charged with taking on a Rays team with a .178 ISO against lefties (seventh-highest in MLB). On the other hand, the Rays strike out at the fourth-highest clip in MLB against lefties (23.8 K%) and also have a .228 average against fly ball pitchers such as Duffy, which is tied for second-lowest in MLB. This feels like a textbook, high-risk, high-upside play best served for GPPs.
4. It’s pretty remarkable what Kyle Hendricks has been able to do this year without elite strikeout stuff, particularly at home. Despite striking out a pedestrian eight batters per nine in his 11 home starts, he’s walked just 10 batters, and he’s held opposing hitters to a .504 OPS. The last player with at least 10 home starts in a season to match those numbers (8.0 K/9 or fewer, .504 OPS or less) was Greg Maddux, who did it in 1994 when he played for the Braves. Hendricks was scheduled to face the Mariners on Sunday, but after his start was pushed back, he finds himself in a much more positive matchup against the Marlins.
5. Before loading up on Blue Jays righties against Doug Fister, consider: Fister’s 11 extra-base hits allowed to right-handed batters is fewest of any pitcher in MLB this year (min. 60 IP). He’s allowed a .244 wOBA to right-handed batters (ranked seventh-best in MLB among qualified starters) and a .280 slugging (ranked third), and only Tanner Roark (18.4% hard contact) has allowed less hard contact to righties than Fister’s 21.0%.
6. Nelson Cruz has a .666 slugging against lefties since 2015. If you turned all of his doubles (15) and triples (1) into outs, he would still have a .551 slugging, which would rank 13th in MLB, ahead of guys like Evan Longoria (.549), George Springer (.546), and Mike Trout (.538). On Monday, Cruz finds himself in a dream matchup at home against Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who has allowed a home run or more in eight consecutive games and has a 2.58 HR/9 to righties this year – the third-highest rate ever in a single season for a pitcher with at least 38 IP against right-handed batters. But there’s another Mariners righty you don’t want to sleep on…
7. It’s Franklin Gutierrez. Eduardo Rodriguez has a definite fly ball lean in 2016 (46.8% fly ball rate), and Gutierrez absolutely crushes fly ball pitchers. In fact, since 2015, his .377 ISO against fly ball pitchers is best in all of MLB (min. 130 PA), and take a look at the players who follow him immediately on the list – Bryce Harper (.360), Josh Donaldson (.346), Trout (.340), and David Ortiz (.340).
8. From June 25th to July 25th, an entire month, Neil Walker had just 12 hits. In the five games since July 26, Neil Walker has…12 hits. The Mets switch hitter used to be a liability against lefties, but he’s turned that weakness into a strength this year – against lefties, he’s one of four players with a .380+ wOBA, a .269+ ISO, and a strikeout rate below 14.0%, joining Josh Donaldson, Stephen Piscotty, and Daniel Murphy (which is itself interesting given he’s a lefty). He and the others Mets righties find themselves in a solid matchup against CC Sabathia on Monday.
9. Xander Bogaerts has a .331 batting average against left-handed pitching in his first four seasons as a big leaguer (448 plate appearances). Among shortstops with at least 400 plate appearances against lefties, Barry Larkin (.333) is the only one with an average above .331. Bogaert faces lefty James Paxton, and if you can afford him, he’s always a safe cash game option.
10. Miguel Montero has allowed 46 stolen bases (third-most in MLB) and thrown out just three batters all year. That’s pretty remarkable. Maybe more remarkable is the fact that he’s allowed 46 steals in just 47 games started. For context, the two catchers who have allowed more steals than Montero are Jonathan Lucroy (48 steals) and Tucker Barnhart (49 steals) – and it’s taken them 79 and 68 games started, respectively, to allow that many stolen bases. If you avoided rostering Dee Gordon against Yadier Molina since his return, now’s the time to plug him in.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!