10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, April 6th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are Friday, April 6th.
Friday, April 6th
1. Since his debut in 2015, Lance McCullers has posted a 29.3% strikeout rate and a 2.39 ERA in 173 1/3 innings pitched at home; the only other qualified pitcher to combine those numbers at home since 2015 is Clayton Kershaw. McCullers has also shown an ability to limit hard contact at home, posting a 24.4% hard hit rate at home, nearly seven percentage points lower than the 31.1% he’s allowed on the road. It’s still early in his career, but McCullers is looking like the rare pitcher whose home/road splits actually matter. On Friday, he’s not only at home, but he gets the best matchup a pitcher could ask for against the San Diego Padres. There is nothing sneaky about playing Lance McCullers on Friday…but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it. And if that double negative confuses you, here you go: if you enjoy money, play Lance McCullers.
2. In his first start of 2018, after an entire offseason’s worth of hype, Luis Castillo sputtered out of the gate, allowing six earned runs. But if you believed in Castillo before that start, keep the faith; despite the earned runs (three of which came on a fluky mistake fastball that he left over the heart of the plate against Matt Adams), Castillo generated 19 whiffs – that’s tied with Kenta Maeda for third-most of any pitcher in their first start of 2018, trailing only Max Scherzer and Good Gerrit Cole (as opposed to the Pirates version, who shall hereafter be referred to as Bad Gerrit Cole). Castillo’s changeup was particularly nasty, earning five of his six strikeouts, and generally making hitters look silly. The change should neutralize some of the Pirates lefty bats (Dickerson, Polanco, Bell, Moran), and he’s demonstrated last year that he has no issues with righties, either, with a 29.1% strikeout rate and 26.6% hard hit rate. Even with a massive salary increase (apparently at DraftKings, the worst start in a pitcher’s career warrants a $2,700 salary hike), with a park upgrade and his elite skills still in tact, Luis Castillo is still a bargain at $8,700.
3. Take a look at the top 10 qualified pitchers in limiting contact on pitches in the strike zone last season: Sale, Scherzer, deGrom, Ray, Marco Estrada, Archer, Severino, Kluber, Kershaw. Zone-contact rating is generally considered a good indicator of a pitcher’s “stuff,” so it’s curious to see Marco Estrada listed smack in the middle of the game’s premiere strikeout artists. However, Estrada has shown the ability to post above average, if not elite, strikeouts from time to time. Now, it’s never comfortable rostering a fly ball pitcher; if luck isn’t on Estrada’s side, he can always give up multiple homers (oh wait – Estrada did in his first start of 2018! But when you consider that it was the Yankees, he probably got off easy). Friday’s mid-tier at pitcher offers very little upside, though, and Estrada’s reverse splits (since 2015, .277 wOBA and 26.0% hard hits vs. LHP; .319 wOBA and 31.1% vs. RHP) gives him a better chance of neutralizing the Rangers’ talented lefties like Gallo, Choo, Odor, and Mazara. He’s only for tournaments, of course, but on a tough day for pitching, he has to be considered.
4. Kenta Maeda had an unusual game in his first start of the season against the same Giants team he’ll face Friday. In that game, he struck out 10 batters and didn’t allow an earned run, but he only lasted five innings. It’s a line that had only been matched once by the Dodgers in history (Alex Wood in 2017). Unfortunately, it’s tough to expect that type of efficiency in every outing, and with his short leash – he’s lasted beyond five innings in just seven of 25 starts since 2017 – he’s a tough ask at his elevated salary.
5. Since 2012, there have been 14 seasons of a 166 wRC+ or better by a qualified hitter; Mike Trout is responsible for six of them. So, here’s the thing: it’s surprisingly difficult to find interesting notes for Mike Trout, because he’s essentially the best at everything. He’s so good it’s actually kind of boring to research him. So here you go: play Mike Trout. Play him because on a slate without any high-end pitchers, you can afford him. Play him because he’s good, and Daniel Gossett (.383 wOBA, 36.7% hard hits to RHB in his career) is not. Play him because playing Mike Trout is the right thing to do.
6. On the other side of the same game, Matt Olson had a .719 slugging last season against righties last year; that’s higher than the 2017 on-base plus slugging of some pretty quality hitters like Ian Kinsler, Maikel Franco, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Manuel Margot, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Cabrera (though, admittedly, the last one says more about Miggy’s descent that Olson’s ascent). Olson faces Angels right-hander Parker Bridwell, who strikes out lefties at a very low 13.8% clip while displaying a slight fly ball lean (43.2%) and a tendency to allow hard contact (37.4%). All of that sounds like a recipe for a home run. Olson has been a bit disappointing from a power standpoint so far this season, but this could be a spot for him to turn it around.
7. Along with Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo is the only player in MLB with an 18.0% strikeout rate or below and a .500 slugging or above in 2015, 2016, and 2017. He’s also the first Cub to do it in three straight seasons since Aramis Ramirez did it from 2006-2008. Rizzo’s combination of contact skills and power make him an excellent play on an almost nightly basis. Friday night is no exception, as he takes on Brandon Woodruff. Rizzo gets a massive park upgrade, as the game will be played at Miller Park, the third-best park for left-handed home runs in 2017 (111 HR rating for LHB, compared to 94 for Wrigley Field, per FanGraphs Park Factors). He’s an elite cash game play to anchor your lineup.
8. Since 2015, Robinson Chirinos has a .321 ISO against fly ball pitchers, eighth-best in MLB. Here are the guys ahead of him: Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, Tommy Pham. There’s no telling whether or not Chirinos will crack the Rangers’ lineup on Friday, but if he does, he’s an awesome tournament play against reverse splits Marco Estrada, as he may go somewhat ignored in the righty/righty matchup.
9. Take a look at Marwin Gonzalez’s O-Swing% by season since 2016:
2016 – 35.7%
2017 – 29.2%
2018 – 27.9%
Gonzalez has taken great strides towards limiting swings outside the strike zone over the years, and he has the good fortune of hitting in a loaded Astros lineup each night. His matchup against Padres righty Luis Perdomo isn’t ideal given Perdomo’s extreme ground ball tendencies, but luckily, Gonzalez has thrived against sinkerballers in the past. He’s got a .342 ISO against sinkers since 2016, more than double the league average mark of .163 (but keep in mind, this is in a very small sample of 73 at-bats ending in a sinker over that span).
10. It’s time for blind resume! Take a look at some DFS-relevant stats from two players against left-handed pitching and dating back to 2014:
Wow – these players are nearly identical in almost every category listed, with the exception of strikeout rate, where Player B has a decided advantage. Player A is four-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger Justin Upton. He’s a good hitter. If you’ve ever read this article, you can probably guess what’s coming…Player B is a much less heralded player. It’s the Dodgers’ Kike Hernandez, who continues to be a value across the industry anytime he’s facing a lefty.
On Friday, Hernandez doesn’t just get a lefty – he gets a Derek Holland. Holland posted a .408 wOBA against righties while fanning less than 17 percent of them in 2017. Of the 89 qualified pitchers against righties, would you care to guess where Holland’s wOBA ranked? If you guessed 89th, congratulations – you win. Your prize is the ability to use Kike Hernandez (and other Dodgers righties) against Derek Holland on Friday.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!