10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, July 13th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, July 13th.
Friday, July 13th
1. Over the past three seasons, Madison Bumgarner has a 2.45 ERA and a .254 wOBA allowed at home; the only other pitchers in MLB (min. 180 IP) who can say that are Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber. Bumgarner has long been ultra-reliable in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, and after a rough start to the year, he appears to have finally gotten his feet under him with quality starts in four of his last five. On Friday, his matchup isn’t perfect, as the A’s strike out at a high 23.4 percent clip against lefties on the year. Assuming the park can mitigate some of the power in Oakland’s lineup, Bumgarner has a strong chance of ending the night as the top overall point scorer of the night at pitcher. Without any sure things in the mid- or lower-tier of pitchers, Bumgarner is the de facto top pitcher for cash games, although being underweight in tournaments to fit in bats may be the better approach in GPPs.
2. Carlos Martinez has a 13.0% swinging strike rate over his last three starts; it’s the best over a three-game stretch for him since the beginning of 2017. Take a look at how swinging strikes have trended upwards as of late:
Martinez has been all over the place this year, but he appears to have settled down a bit, with 20 DraftKings points in each of his past three. The real selling point for Martinez, though, is his price tag, at least at DraftKings, where’s he’s very affordable at just $8,100. In a decent enough matchup against a Reds team getting a massive park downgrade, Martinez has huge upside for tournaments given the price.
3. Felix Pena has burst onto the scene out of nowhere this year, with a 3.08 SIERA that ranks second on the slate, thanks in large part to his dominant slider. Case in point: the pitch’s .114 true average is second-best in MLB, trailing only Trevor Bauer’s offering, per Baseball Prospectus. The pitch’s .112 xwOBA is also second-best in MLB, behind only Josh Hader’s slide piece. Such an elite put-away pitch means Pena is always going to have strikeout upside for tournaments, but there is a fly in the ointment: the Dodgers are really, really good against righties (110 wRC+, fourth-best in MLB). If we want to get even more granular, the Dodgers haven’t had any problems hitting right-handed sliders, with a .316 wOBA that is best in MLB, not surprising considering some of the left-handed bats on the team (Muncy, Bellinger, Pederson, Grandal). What this boils down to is a pitcher who is best sprinkled into tournament lineups. And if he does excel in this tough matchup, he’ll certainly be an arm worth watching in the season’s second half.
4. Walker Buehler is the only starter in MLB with a 58.0 percent ground ball rate and 28.0 percent strikeouts against right-handers. The Angels tend to throw out a very right-handed lineup, which could play in Buehler’s favor and allow him to post a solid outing, even if he is a victim of Dave Roberts’ short leash. The Angels strike out at a low 20.0 percent clip against righties, and that, coupled with the unlikelihood that Buehler pitches deep into the game, makes him more viable for cash games than tournaments. On this slate, though, we’re looking for anything to latch onto with pitching, and Buehler – even despite getting shelled for five earned runs in an inning of relief his last time out – is still one of the best young arms in the game.
5. It’s time for Blind Resume! Take a look at the 2018 stats from two noteworthy pitchers, one of whom pitches on tonight’s slate:
So, these guys are very similar. Both have solid strikeout rates, both have excellent control with very few walks issued, both keep the ball on the ground. The one glaring difference is that Pitcher B has allowed much less hard contact.
Pitcher A is former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, who (admittedly) is having a down season. Pitcher B, surprisingly, is Rays right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who has been excellent in a small sample this year. Prior to this year, Eovaldi had been nothing more than an average (at best) pitcher who threw really hard. But he’s developed a cutter that has really helped him neutralize left-handed batters. Eovaldi is throwing the pitch 28.3 percent of the time this year after just 4.9 percent in 2016 (the last season he pitched). He’s allowed just three singles and zero extra-base hits to lefties on the pitch, amounting to a minuscule .150 average. On Friday, he’s on the road against a Twins team that should be able to load up on left-handed batters. In the past, Eovaldi would have been easy to write off, but his improvements against lefties this year, coupled with his low walks and high strikeouts, makes him really interesting for tournaments.
6. Jose Ramirez has 28 home runs and 19 stolen bases before the All-Star break; he’s the only player in the history of baseball to do that. The last time a player had 28 home runs and even double figures in steals was Albert Pujols way back in 2009. Ramirez is red hot with three multi-hit games, including homers in each one. He’s better from the left side (188 wRC+ vs. RHP, 119 vs. LHP), he’s better at home (189 wRC+ at home vs. 151 away), and on a slate with Coors Field, very few will find the $5,800 DraftKings is asking for him. Domingo German is a great young pitcher, but at this point, he’s been elite against righties and fairly average against lefties (.334 wOBA, 21.5% strikeout rate). Ramirez is an excellent tournament one-off on a slate where ownership should be concentrated in a few places.
7. Jean Segura has 37 multi-hit games this year; that’s more than Mookie Betts, more than Jose Altuve, more than Nolan Arenado. In fact, the only players with more games of 2+ hits this year are J.D. Martinez and Nick Markakis (which is surprising in its own right). There’s really only one word needed to explain why Segura and the Mariners are top plays on Friday (the word is “Coors,” if you’re new here), but it’s worth noting that Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela got wrecked by this same Mariners team outside of Coors at SafeCo Field in his last start. Segura went 0-for-4 in that game, but I’m betting on a rebound on Friday, and maybe even another two-hit game.
8. Chris Iannetta’s aEV by month:
March/April – 91.5 MPH
May – 92.3 MPH
June – 95.3 MPH
July – 97.0 MPH
The 97.0 MPH mark in July ranks third in MLB. We’re dealing with very small samples here, and I’m not sure we need to stretch to far to find a reason to play a $3,600 catcher at Coors Field. But even so, Iannetta’s hitting the ball with increasing authority is certainly encouraging. If he cracks the lineup, Iannetta is a readymade cash game play against reverse splits righty Christian Bergman, who has allowed an unsightly .406 wOBA in 117 1/3 innings pitched to righties in his career. Oh, and one more thing: Coors Field is not new territory for Christian Bergman, who played on the Rockies from 2014-2016. While he was in Colorado, he pitched to a 6.69 ERA and allowed hitters to slash .335/.372/.574. Play the Rockies.
9. Jake Bauers has a .511 wOBA against four-seam fastballs this year, the third-best mark in MLB this year. He’s struggled against other pitch types (294 wOBA on breaking pitches, .107 wOBA on offspeed pitches), but he’s handled the four-seamer well, which is notable given that it’s Jake Odorizzi’s primary pitch. Bauers should go overlooked on this slate, but his $3,900 price tag at DraftKings makes him an excellent salary saver in cash games or tournaments.
10. Let’s take a look at what a wonky season Tommy Pham has had from a batted ball standpoint this season. Here are his month-by-month BABIP and hard-hit numbers:
March/April – .415 BABIP, 35.3% Hard Hits
May – .220, 51.8% Hard Hits
June – .235, 50.7% Hard Hits
July – .333, 59.1% Hard Hits
Or, expressed visually, here’s what it looks like:
That’s just bizarre. Pham keeps hitting the ball harder and harder, and fewer and fewer of these batted balls are dropping in for hits. I have to think this is just a stretch of bad luck for Pham, and sooner or later, it will correct itself, assuming he continues smashing the ball. Because of his prolonged slump, he’s fallen to $3,900 at DraftKings, which puts him in play in most matchups, including his Friday matchup against a kinda-sorta rejuvenated Matt Harvey.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!