10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 29th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 29th.
Friday, June 29th
1. Trevor Bauer is currently riding a streak of eight consecutive games of 20+ DraftKings points; that’s by far the longest active streak in MLB, with no other player posting 20+ in more than four straight games. It’s still a little difficult to process the fact that Bauer, once prone to bouts of inconsistency, has evolved into one of the most dependable arms in MLB, but that’s where we are. It is worth noting that five of those eight games came in highly favorable matchups against the White Sox and Tigers. On Friday, his matchup with the Athletics, who rank in the top seven of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against righties, is nowhere near as favorable. He does get a park upgrade, as the game will be played in Oakland rather than at hitter-friendly Progressive Field. Even so, the matchup is tricky enough that Bauer falls just below deGrom and Cole if I’m ranking the top three on Friday’s slate.
2. Gerrit Cole has 12 games of 8+ strikeouts this year…already a career-high of such games and three more than he had all of last year. Reminder: we haven’t reached the All-Star break yet. The strikeouts have fallen from “otherworldly” to “merely elite” as of late, as he hasn’t reached double figures in strikeouts since May 4th. However, he is consistently in the eight-strikeout range, which is nothing to scoff at. While Cole has been allowing a few more homers as of late (1.74 HR/9 in June, compared to 1.09 in May and 0.74 in March/April), he’s afforded a bit of safety in this matchup, as the Rays rank 27th in isolated power against right-handed pitching this year (.130). Vegas agrees, as the Rays have the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.97 runs. It’s really hard to go wrong with any of the top three in cash games today, but of the three, Cole ranks second for me, just behind…
UPDATE: deGrom has been scratched from tonight’s scheduled start.
3. Jacob deGrom, who is having a historic first half, with a 1.69 ERA and 11.19 strikeouts per nine innings. We’re still a few weeks from the All-Star break, but it’s worth noting that exactly one pitcher has held those numbers over the first half of a season: Pedro Martinez during his Cy Young-winning campaign of 2000. deGrom finds himself in a pristine matchup against the Marlins, who rank 25th or worse in both wOBA and ISO against righties, in addition to striking out at a healthy 23.7 percent clip. deGrom disappointed in his last start against the Dodgers, but this feels very much like a bounce-back spot, and it’s not difficult to envision deGrom fanning 10+ batters in this one. For me, he’s the top overall pitcher on a slate loaded with high-end arms.
4. Despite a -9.85 DraftKings points game from Frankie Montas, the last eight right-handed starters to face the Tigers have averaged 21.49 DraftKings points, with every one of them except Montas scoring 17.90 points. Marcus Stroman is not an elite pitcher, and he consistently hovers around league average in the strikeout department. But one thing he does consistently is generate grounders; he’s got a 60 percent ground ball rate or higher for four years running. Grounders to not necessarily equate to big games in DFS, but here’s the thing: Stroman has an eye-catching price tag of just $6,300 at DraftKings. Even better, he’s a massive -178 favorite. That’s enough to put him firmly in play as an SP2.
5. Only one pitcher on Friday’s loaded pitching slate has managed to strike out 10.9 batters per nine innings in each of the three months this season, and it’s not Cole, or Bauer, or deGrom. It’s Patrick Corbin, who is going to be the forgotten man on a slate rich in high-upside pitching. Corbin has been getting hit harder as of late (48.3% hard hits in May, 46.0% in June), which is a concern. But he’s faced the Giants three times this year and has had his way with them, to the tune of a 1.74 ERA, a .141/.195/.169 allowed, and a 31.2 percent strikeout rate over 20 2/3 innings. With ownership figuring to be minuscule and in a positive matchup, Corbin makes a lot of sense as a contrarian tournament play if you’re mass multi-entering.
6. Since 2017, 70 percent of Eric Thames’ hits at Great American Ball Park have been home runs (seven home runs on 10 hits). He’s posted an insane .838 slugging, which makes sense; he’s a pull power hitter, and Great American is one of the smallest parks in MLB. Against Sal Romano, who has allowed a .373 wOBA and 39.6 percent hard hits to lefties this year, Thames could easily find the seats once again. He’s an elite play in all formats.
7. Take a look at how Joey Votto has ranked among qualified hitters in outside-the-zone swing rate over the last several years:
2018 – 1st
2017 – 1st
2016 – 5th
2015 – 1st
2014 – 9th (in only 220 plate appearances; didn’t qualify for the batting title)
2013 – 2nd
Votto being ejected for arguing a strike call is something that should probably never happen; the ump should just step aside and say, “You know what? You’re probably right. We’ll go with a ball.” Yesterday, Votto was back at it, arguing a called strike on the outside corner, leading to Brewers catcher Erik Kratz getting in his face, and benches clearing. Votto is pissed, and he’s probably going to hit a home run off Milwaukee fly-ball pitcher Chase Anderson, who has already allowed 16 this year.
8. Since 2015, Kike Hernandez has a higher ISO (.260) than the following players against lefties: Mike Trout, Khris Davis, Brian Dozier, Nick Castellanos, Mookie Betts, Adrian Beltre, Andrew McCutchen … you get it. He’s tied with George Springer for sixth in MLB over that stretch (min. 500 PA), and on Friday, he’ll face Colorado southpaw Tyler Anderson. Hernandez is always a risk to get pinch-hit for, but given his success against lefties, it feels almost baked into his price. In order to fit in a high-end pitcher like deGrom, Cole, or Bauer, we’ll need some cheap plays with upside, and Hernandez fits the bill.
9. Only four players in MLB have 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases over the past calendar year: Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Tommy Pham, and Tim Anderson. Anderson is a dynamic player with a rare power/speed combo, and he’s even drastically improved his walk rate (7.6 BB% after 2.1% in 2017 and 3.0% in 2016). Best of all, his speed should be on display on Friday if Robinson Chirinos is behind the plate for the Rangers. Chirinos has been horrendous at controlling the running game, throwing out just three of 39 baserunners who have tried to steal on him this year. Anderson has been hitting lower in the order against right-handed pitchers, but that fact makes him even more interesting as a contrarian tournament play. If he gets on base, he’ll probably be running, which, combined with his power and the excellent hitting environment in Texas, gives him huge upside.
10. Take a look are the top five hitters in average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls this year:
Giancarlo Stanton – 100.9 MPH
Joey Gallo – 100.5 MPH
J.D. Martinez – 99.7 MPH
??? – 98.9 MPH
Aaron Judge – 98.7 MPH
The mystery player on the list, amidst some of the most prodigious power hitters in recent memory, is Daniel Palka. After sitting out on Thursday, Palka should crack the lineup on Friday, and he may even be hitting cleanup. In the 100-degree heat of Texas, against a weak right-hander in Yovani Gallaro (.360 wOBA, 1.6 HR/9 to RHB since 2016), Palka is one of the most interesting point-per-dollar plays on the slate. He’s cheap across the industry, and he’s got realistic home run upside. If he is batting cleanup, lock him into your lineups in both cash games and tournaments.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!