10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 7th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 7th.
1. Gerrit Cole is having some first half; he’s one of three pitchers in MLB history with a 13 K/9 and a sub-2.5 BB/9 before the All-Star break, joining Chris Sale in 2018 and Pedro Martinez in 2001. He’s in a home matchup against an inept Orioles offense that is pegged with a slate-low (and honestly one of the lowest I’ve ever seen…) 2.07 implied team total. There’s no question Cole checks all the boxes for being the top option on Friday’s slate: Elite strikeouts, great matchup, favorable ballpark. The only question is in relation to the context of the slate; with some excellent mid-level options, paying all the way up for Cole may not be as automatic as it would appear. Either way, this seems like a spot where it’s (famous DFS last words) impossible for Cole to fail.
2. In Clayton Kershaw last 16 starts against the Giants dating back to 2015, 15 of them have been quality starts (the only exception being in his most recent start). Over that 16-game span, Kershaw has posted a 1.82 ERA and has fanned 27.6 percent of batters, to go with a minuscule 2.1 percent walk rate and a [pages through a thesaurus to find a synonym for “minuscule”] microscopic .231 wOBA allowed. Kershaw has loved pitching against San Francisco in years past, and the 2019 version of the Giants features one of the weakest lineups in baseball, with a .116 ISO against lefties that ranks 29th in MLB and is only a few ticks higher than that of the [realizes paper thesauruses are stupid, goes to thesaurus.com to find a synonym for “weak”] anemic Marlins (.113). With a merely “very good” 24.6 percent strikeout rate, Kershaw doesn’t have the raw upside of a Gerrit Cole, and the two are priced similarly. But this is an elite matchup, and Kershaw makes for a fantastic contrarian tournament play in order to pivot off the likely high Cole ownership.
3. In his two starts since returning from injury on May 26th, Andrew Heaney has posted an incredible 19.8 percent swinging-strike rate. Just to illustrate how impressive this is, consider: Even Gerrit Cole – MLB’s current strikeout leader – hasn’t generated 19.8 percent swinging strikes over any two-game stretch this year (though he did come close, with a 19.4% SwStr% over a two-game stretch in late May). Heaney hasn’t wasted any time ringing up opposing batters, with 8 and 10 strikeouts in his first two games of 2019. It’s noteworthy that the 10-strikeout game came in his last start, against the same Mariners team he’ll face on Friday. You could make the case that this puts Heaney at a disadvantage, as the Mariners are now familiar with him. But this is a Mariners team that whiffs with the best of them; their 26.1 percent K rate against lefties is seventh-highest in MLB. At DraftKings, Heaney is priced near a much bigger name (and a much more accomplished pitcher) in Jacob deGrom; he makes an excellent pivot off of deGrom in GPPs. And, if you’re not afraid of fading Gerrit Cole, a Heaney/deGrom pairing in cash games actually makes a lot of sense.
4. Speaking of deGrom, the guy is, and has been, a beast when pitching at home. In 74 career starts at CitiField, deGrom has:
— 57 quality starts
— 62 games of 6+ strikeouts, 39 games of 8+ strikeouts, and 19 games of 10+ strikeouts
— An ERA of 2.26 (ranks 2nd of 56 qualifiers), a .249 wOBA allowed (3rd), a K rate of 30.2% (5th), and a 21.5% soft contact rate (8th).
Jacob deGrom at home is one of the best bets you can find in DFS, and on Friday, he has the luxury of facing a Rockies team that strikes out at a 26.6 percent clip (fifth-highest in MLB) and has a .286 wOBA (second-lowest in MLB) when away from Coors Field. At DraftKings, deGrom’s price tag of just $9,400 really stands out. The reigning Cy Young winner, at home, in a great matchup, at under $10K? Yes, please.
5. Brandon Woodruff is having an underrated season; he’s one of only eight pitchers with a 28 percent strikeout rate and a sub-1.00 HR/9, and he’s in great company (Strasburg, Morton, Giolito, Scherzer, Odorizzi, Castillo, Ray). His Friday matchup against the Pirates is weak on the strikeout upside, as Pittsburgh’s 21.3 percent K rate versus right-handed pitching is seventh-lowest in MLB. But on the plus side, the matchup is a pretty non-threatening one: The Pirates rank in the bottom third of MLB against RHPs in ISO (.151, ranks 26th), wOBA (.309, 20th), and wRC+ (92, tied for 20th). It seems crazy that 13 pitchers (including guys like Merrill Kelly and Erick Fedde) are more expensive than Woodruff at DraftKings. Yes, the game takes place at homer-friendly Miller Park, but Woodruff has been able to suppress homers thus far, and the Pirates haven’t been very good at hitting them. He’s one of the top pitcher plays on the slate from a point-per-dollar standpoint.
6. Against right-handed pitchers at home this year, Christian Yelich has 13 home runs…and 10 strikeouts. The things Yelich is doing this season, particularly when he’s got the platoon advantage, particularly when he’s in his home ballpark, are almost hard to believe. On Friday, he faces Pirates right-hander Rookie Davis at Miller Park, a pitcher who wasn’t able to stick in a 2018 Reds rotation that included guys like Homer Bailey and Sal Romano. In other words, the Rookie has a lot to learn, and Yelich should have no trouble teaching a few things when he blasts one into the seats. With an implied run total of 5.88 runs, Brewers bats are definitely worth prioritizing on Friday. And while it starts with Yelich, don’t forget about…
7. Travis Shaw, who – believe it or not – has something in common with the best player in the world, Mike Trout. Both Shaw and Trout hit 26+ home runs while striking out fewer than 22 percent of the time against right-handed pitching in 2017 and 2018. They’re the only hitters in MLB who did that both seasons. Shaw’s 2019 has been an utter disaster (in large part because of a huge spike in strikeouts), but this is still a very good hitter who crushes with the platoon advantage. Plus, his struggles have been – at least in part – due to some pretty obvious bad luck; it’s hard to believe in his current 2019 BABIP of .233 given that he had a career .286 BABIP entering this year. He feels like a cheat code at DraftKings: A good hitter against a bad pitcher in a great run-scoring environment at an eye-popping $2,700. He’s a player who can “make everything else work” in cash games, or a guy who has home run upside at a low price for GPPs.
8. Cody Bellinger is hitting a home run every 11 at-bats; Christian Yelich is hitting a homer every 8.7 at-bats; Joey Gallo is homering every 11 at-bats. But this note isn’t about any of those players. It’s about Derek Dietrich, who is homering at a better clip than all of those hitters, and anyone else in MLB, for that matter. Dietrich is clubbing a home run once every 7.8 at-bats, which would be best in MLB if he had enough at-bats to qualify. We’re in early June and he’s already hit a career-high 17 dingers this year, all against righties. Just for laughs, let’s look at Dietrich’s ISO by year over the past few seasons:
2016 – .157
2017 – .190
2018 – .147
2019 – .470
On Friday, Dietrich takes on Zach Eflin, the Phillies right-hander who, though much improved, is still vulnerable against lefties (.334 wOBA, 2.20 HR/9 allowed this year). You’ll have to pay big bucks for Dietrich at DraftKings ($5,00), but FanDuel still isn’t convinced of Dietrich’s improved power, pricing him down at $3,000. He’s a great way to save some salary at second base at FanDuel.
9. Mookie Betts has seen an 81-point drop in his BABIP from 2018 to 2019; that represents the sixth-largest decrease in MLB over that span. Betts is still one of the best hitters in baseball, and he’s priced down to $4,400 at DraftKings. Before the end of the year, we’ll be happy to pay $5,000 for him, so scoop him up now. Sure, the matchup against Yonny Chirinos isn’t ideal: Chirinos has allowed just 27.6 percent hard hits to righties this year, the fifth-lowest rate in MLB. It doesn’t matter; this is a pure price play. Even though Betts’s 2019 hasn’t been as prodigious as his 2019 MVP season, this is still a guy who hits for average and power and rarely strikes out: He’s one of only eight players in MLB with a .295 average, a .225 ISO, and a 14.7 percent K rate or lower against righties. Long story short: Mookie Betts is still good. Play Mookie Betts.
10. Since his return from injury, Matt Olson has 15 barrels, something only two other players – Mike Trout and Josh Bell – can say. Olson just continues to smash the ball, and he continues to be underpriced across the industry at just $3,000 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings. On Friday, he faces Texas right-hander Lance Lynn, who has historically struggled to get lefties out (career .343 wOBA). Oakland has a high 5.26 implied run total, as they’ll be playing in the always-favorable hitting conditions of Texas. Olson warrants cash game consideration, and his power upside makes him essentially a mandatory part of any Athletics stack.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!