10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 1st
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, July 1st.
1. Roughly halfway into his first season in Boston, Chris Sale has struck out 137 right-handed hitters, putting him on a 274-strikeout pace. Last year, Max Scherzer was the only pitcher in baseball to strike out more than 274 total batters. (I know I’m being a little loose with the math here, but Sale started 32 games last year, and he’s started 16 this year, so I think it’s reasonable). As usual, Sale is priced through the roof across the industry, and as usual, it doesn’t matter; you just have to play him. On the early slate, there’s really nobody close.
2. Zack Wheeler has lasted two or fewer innings and given up seven earned runs in each of his last two starts; it’s the first time since Chien-Ming Wang (2009) that a pitcher has had two such games in a row. And yet, on two-pitcher sites, Wheeler may be in play as an SP2 for the early slate. The Phillies rank in the bottom five of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against righties this year, and their 23.5% strikeout rate is sixth-highest in MLB. We just saw Jacob deGrom make quick work of the Phillies, and while Wheeler is not deGrom, there’s simply no way to fit in both Sale and…
3. Jose Berrios, whose .224 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters ranks fourth in MLB among pitchers with at least 30 innings. He trails only Max Scherzer, Andrew Miller, and Alex Wood. Berrios also checks in with a 30.1% strikeout rate and an insanely low 17.1% hard contact rate allowed to righties. Of course, he won’t be facing only righties on Saturday, but it’s worth noting that against a righty on Friday, Kansas City had just three lefties in their lineup: Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Alex Gordon. If Berrios can navigate those three, the upside is immense in this matchup.
4. Carlos Carrasco has one of the best sliders in baseball, as evidenced by the paltry .145 wOBA right-handed hitters have managed against the pitch this year; only Max Scherzer’s slider (0.97 wOBA allowed) has been better in that regard. Carrasco has been elite against right-handers this year, striking them out at a 28.8% clip while allowing a low 27.3% hard hit rate. That should bode well for him against an almost exclusively right-handed Tigers lineup (save Alex Avila and Victor Martinez, more than likely). In his last start, Carrasco struck out seven but also allowed three homers and eight earned runs, reminding us why he always makes more sense in tournaments. That’s where he should be used on Saturday, as he is prone to the occasional blowup, yet has electric stuff that can yield GPP-winning results.
5. Speaking of the Tigers, against right-handed pitching, Detroit leads all of MLB in hard hit rate with a 42.5% mark, and it’s not even close: no other team has a hard hit rate above 37.2% against righties. Odds are the Tigers bats will have a quiet night against Carrasco on the main slate, but if you’re playing the early slate, the Tigers are all severely underpriced at DraftKings. Why? Josh Tomlin was originally slated to pitch in the early game before Cleveland reversed the order of its pitchers. For example, Miguel Cabrera costs $3,600 on the early slate against Tomlin, compared to $4,100 on the late slate against Carrasco. Take advantage if you’re playing the early slate.
6. Rich Hill has, for all intents and purposes, been a major disappointment in 2017. Plagued by chronic blisters and a once-elite curveball that has become pedestrian at best (opponents have posted a .329 wOBA against Hill’s curve this year – sixth highest in MLB – after posting a .155 mark last year). However, for all of Hill’s struggles, the one skill that has remained in tact has been his ability to generate weak contact. In fact, with 26.8% soft contact and 26.8% hard contact, he’s one of four pitchers (min. 40 IP) to induce as much soft contact as hard contact, joining Dallas Keuchel, Andrew Miller, and Felipe Rivero. That should serve him well against a Padres team that ranks dead last with a .283 wOBA against southpaws this year. He’s not for the risk-averse, but Hill makes for an interesting tournament option on the late slate, particularly if Greinke at home makes you nervous.
7. Ricky Nolasco has allowed multiple home runs in 10 starts this season; besides him, no other pitchers has allowed multiple home runs in more than seven games. Given the late start time and the pitcher’s ballpark, a Mariners stack will likely be extremely low-owned on the late slate. But Nolasco gives up high fly balls to lefties (45.8%) and he gets hit hard by righties (41.8% hard contact rate). Plus, a few Mariners bats have had success against him in the past: Cano, Cruz, Segura, and Zunino are a combined 23-for-63 with seven home runs.
8. Speaking of the Mariners, we’ve got a birthday narrative in line for Nelson Cruz. Cruz, born on July 1st, 1980, has hits in seven consecutive games on July 1st, including three multi-hit games and three home runs. His OPS over those seven contests is 1.179.
9. If we assume swinging at lots of pitches in the strike zone and not swinging at many pitches outside the strike zone is what it takes to be a disciplined hitter (a pretty safe assumption, I think), Brandon Belt is one of the most disciplined hitters in all of baseball. In fact, he’s the only player in MLB who has a Zone% (swinging at pitches in the zone) of 75.2 or higher and an O-Swing% (swinging at pitches outside the zone) lower than 22.4% this year. Belt has the luxury of facing Chad Kuhl and his .445(!!!) wOBA against left-handed batters this year. He and fellow Giants lefty Brandon Crawford are both extremely cheap at DraftKings and make for a nice mini-stack.
10. The Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the worst teams in MLB against left-handed pitching last year, had the highest team ISO in baseball against lefties in June, at .276. A big part of that has been the emergence of Justin Turner, lefty masher. Long considered a “reverse splits” hitter, Turner has crushed lefties this season (in an admittedly small sample). Check out his numbers against lefties over the last two seasons:
| Stat | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|
| PA | 198 | 82 |
| K% | 17.2% | 8.5% |
| wOBA | .283 | .473 |
| ISO | .128 | .232 |
| Hard% | 38.6% | 44.4% |
The high hard hit rate from last year, coupled with a super low .230 BABIP, tells us he was the victim of some bad luck last year and was probably less “reverse splits” than we might have thought. This year, though, Turner has raised his play against southpaws even more. He’s an elite play on the late slate against Seattle lefty Dillon Overton.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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