10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 21st
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, July 21st, 2016.
1. After pitching a complete-game, three-hit shutout in his last start, Adam Wainwright has gone 14 consecutive games (that’s 99.1 innings, 397 total batters faced) without allowing a home run at Busch Stadium, a streak that dates back to September 12, 2014 (remember that Wainwright missed most of 2015 with a torn Achilles tendon). His is the longest streak of such games by a Cardinals pitcher since World War II. For some context: the great Bob Gibson never went more than 10 games without allowing a home run at home in his 17-year Cardinals career.
2. What’s Wainwright’s secret? Well, for one thing, he doesn’t allow batters to put the ball in the air. His 26.8% fly ball rate at home is 14th-lowest in MLB among qualified starters. But here’s the interesting part – the Cardinals’ entire current starting rotation ranks inside the top 14 in MLB in lowest fly ball percentage allowed at home, and Wainwright’s home fly ball rate is actually highest among them. Michael Wacha (25.7% FB rate), Carlos Martinez (24.9%), Mike Leake (23.9%), and Jaime Garcia (18.1%) all rank inside the top 11 in terms of limiting fly balls at home.
3. If Francisco Liriano 13.6% walk rate holds, he will be the first player with a walk rate north of 13.0% since…Clayton Kershaw in 2009. Sure, “if it holds” is sometimes a ridiculous phrase to use with over two months left in the season, but come on – this is Liriano we’re talking about, a guy who refuses to throw (can’t throw?) strikes. Liriano is currently riding a three-year streak of hitting the strike zone fewer than any qualified pitcher, ranking last in MLB in Zone% in 2014, 2015, and 2016.
4. Since the start of 2015, only Kyle Kendrick has allowed a higher slugging percentage (.594) to left-handed hitters than Mike Foltynewicz (.579). Why was Kendrick so prone to allowing extra-base hits (besides the obvious fact that, well, he’s not good)? Maybe because he played his home games in Coors Field. Foltynewicz will get to experience Coors for the first time as a starter on Thursday, which means it’s all systems go for the Rockies lefties, including…
5. Charlie Blackmon, who has reached base safely in 34 consecutive home games (including times he’s reached on errors) dating back to April 12, by far the longest active streak in MLB (Josh Donaldson is next in line, reaching base in 25 straight home games).
6. Dillon Gee. Tom Koehler. Joe Kelly. Vance Worley. Tim Lincecum. Tyler Duffey. What do each of these pitchers have in common? Besides being players you’d likely never roster on a full slate of MLB games, they’re all right-handers who have struck out more than a batter per inning in games against the Tampa Bay Rays this year. The Rays’ 24.4 K% against righties is third-highest in MLB, and Thursday is a Coors slate without many pitching options available. If you think Athletics righty Sonny Gray can last six innings (and he’s lasted exactly six innings in each of his last six starts), he is in play, even with a 17.3 K% that ranks 74th of 94 qualified starters. One hurdle he’ll have to navigate, though, is…
7. Corey Dickerson, who, is that rare player who hits for more power against ground ball pitchers such as Gray (who owns a 50.7% ground ball rate against lefties). Since the start of 2014, Dickerson has a 1.014 OPS against ground ball pitchers, which ranks third in MLB (minimum 200 PA) behind only Jose Bautista (1.124) and Edwin Encarnacion (1.032). For comparison’s sake, Dickerson’s OPS during that same stretch against fly ball pitchers is a much more pedestrian .793, which ranks 88th (again, minimum 200 PA).
8. At the age of 40, David Ortiz leads MLB with a 1.091 OPS. No player aged 40 or over has ever had an OPS that high over a full season. In fact, only three players in MLB history over the age of 40 have even had OPS marks above .900 in a single season, and they’re all in the Hall of Fame – Willie Mays (.907 in 1971, age 40), Stan Musial (.924 in 1962, age 41), and Ty Cobb (.921 in 1927, age 40). Each of those players played at least 133 games, and none of them hit more than 19 home runs. Ortiz has 23 homers through 86 games.
9. In 378 plate appearances at US Cellular Field dating back to 2002, Victor Martinez has a .348 average, the highest of any player with more than 120 plate apperances in that park. During that same span, Martinez’s .928 OPS at The Cell is only exceeded by Frank Thomas’s 1.030 mark (which he recorded from 2002 until he retired in 2007). In the 22 games that Martinez has started at US Cellular since 2013, he’s only gone hitless on two occasions.
10. After doubling off of Bud Norris last night, Wilson Ramos now has 40 extra-base hits…the same as his number of strikeouts. Only three other qualified hitters this year have as many or more extra-base hits than strikeouts: David Ortiz, Jose Altuve, and Daniel Murphy. So Ramos is in good company. He’ll have the platoon edge over Dodgers rookie left-hander Julio Urias in one of the two early games on Thursday.
And now it’s time for the special “Shoutout” section of the article. Piggybacking off the stat above, only one active player has more career extra-base hits than strikeouts (minimum 3,000 career PA). Who is it? Give it your best shot in the comments below, and the first to answer correctly will get the prestigious award of a shoutout in the next “10 Notes” article (this Saturday).
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
Good luck today, and be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays throughout the MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!