10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 24th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, July 24th, 2016.
1. Only Clayton Kershaw (7.6), Johnny Cueto (7.2), and Chris Sale (7.0) average more innings pitched per game started this year than Corey Kluber 6.8. Kluber has been one of the most efficient pitchers in the game – of the top eight in average innings per start (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Steven Wright are also included), Kluber is the only pitcher to average fewer than 100 pitches (he’s at 98 pitches per game).
2. Despite Jon Lester’s reputation for being a guaranteed source of steals because of his inability to throw to first (yeah – still a thing), he’s only allowed 10 stolen bases this season, and there are 15 other pitchers with as many or more steals allowed. On Sunday, though, he faces a Brewers team with 88 steals, more than any other team in baseball. He had success the last time he faced the Milwaukee (August 13th of last year), going six strong innings and fanning 10 Brewers while surrendering just two earned runs. It was a precarious kind of success, though, as the Brewers stole five bases on Lester – it was one of seven cases where a starter allowed 5+ steals dating back to 2015.
3. Lester might be losing sleep thinking about Jonathan Villar, who leads MLB with 34 stolen bases, which is more than all but five players had all of 2015 (Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Charlie Blackmon, AJ Pollock, Jose Altuve).
4. Vince Velasquez ranks in the top 10 in MLB history (okay, he ranks 10th, but “ranks in the top 10” sounds more impressive) with a 10.65 K/9 to right-handed batters in his first two seasons (minimum 20 starts). And he’s in good company – others in the top 10 include Dwight Gooden, Yu Darvish, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Jose Fernandez, Francisco Liriano, and Noah Syndergaard, among others. Given that the Pirates are fair-to-middling in a slew of DFS-relevant stats (K%, wOBA, wRC+, ISO) against RHP, and given that their lineup features two lefties (John Jaso, Gregory Polanco), Velasquez could be in for a big day.
5. Only one pitcher on Sunday’s slate has a strikeout rate above 20.0% and a walk rate below 5.0% this year, and it’s not Kluber or Lester…it’s Rick Porcello. In fact, he’s one of just six pitchers in MLB with those numbers, the others being Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto, Matt Shoemaker, and Zack Greinke. He’s the largest favorite on Sunday’s slate, and with his average 6.6 runs of support (second-most in MLB, with only J.A. Happ getting more support), Porcello screams safety.
6. Unfortunately, that’s where it stops, as Porcello offers almost no upside. This year, he’s had faced teams that rank in the bottom third of MLB in K% against RHP on four occasions, and here are his K totals: 3 (against Baltimore), 5 (against Minnesota), 6 (against Seattle), 2 (against the White Sox).
7. Last night, Nelson Cruz had a two-homer, seven-RBI game, which was the first by a Mariners player since John Olerud did it in August of 2003. On Sunday, he gets to face a lefty in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. This is a spot where you just play Nelson Cruz. Why? Cruz has a 1.058 OPS against lefties since 2014 (only Goldschmidt, at 1.089, has been better during that stretch). Here is the list of players with career OPSs above 1.058 – Babe Ruth (1.164), Ted Williams (1.116), Lou Gehrig (1.080).
8. Since debuting in 2014, Jose Abreu has feasted on fly ball pitchers, posting a .927 OPS (the 12th-best mark in MLB during that span) that is more than 100 points higher than his .818 OPS versus ground ball pitchers. His .318 batting average against fly ballers ranks first among major league first basemen during that stretch. His Sunday opponent is Anibal Sanchez, a bad reverse-splits righty (higher career wOBA versus righties) with fly ball tendencies (47.6% fly ball rate to RHB this year), and he gets to take his swings at the hitter-friendly US Cellular Center. With Goldschmidt, Encarnacion, and Votto (among others) in good spots, Abreu’s ownership should be minuscule, which makes him a sneaky play for tournaments.
9. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting a home run every 8.4 at-bats against ground ball pitchers in 2016 (seven home runs in 59 at-bats) and one every 10.6 at-bats if you include last year’s stats (17 HR in 160 AB). His .381 ISO since 2015 against ground ball pitchers is second only to Jose Bautista (.395). He’s got the platoon edge over Wade Miley, who isn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher but has shown a ground ball lean throughout his career (48.4% ground ball rate since debuting in 2011).
10. Since the All-Star break, Justin Turner has five home runs. That’s more than the Cubs (4), Royals (2), and Pirates (2).
Thanks for reading! Stats for this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays throughout this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!