10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 28th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, July 28, 2016.
1. This year, Jose Fernandez has a 0.92 WHIP at home, and Jacob deGrom has a 1.04 WHIP at home. If you add the two together, you almost reach the season-long WHIP of another pitcher on Thursday’s slate, Ubaldo Jimenez (1.97). DFS is rarely this simple. If you’re playing cash games in the early slate, play deGrom. If you’re playing the main slate, play Fernandez. Do not (ever) (EVER) play Ubaldo Jimenez.
2. Sale’s HR/9 at US Cellular Field (1.97) in 2016 is more than four times that of his HR/9 on the road (.49) despite his having pitched at some homer-friendly venues this year (Minute Maid Park, Rogers Centre, Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park). He’ll take on the crosstown “rival” Cubs at Wrigley Field on Thursday, and he’s destroyed them throughout his career – in two career starts against them, he’s struck out 25, walked three, and allowed one earned run. Still, this is not a good matchup for Sale, as this year’s iteration of the Cubs have a MLB-best 119 wRC+ against lefties. Plus, with early money coming in on the Cubs, Sale is now listed as an underdog to John Lackey (file that under “Things I Never Thought I’d Say in 2016”), making him a really difficult play on a slate with Jose Fernandez.
3. If you are looking for a lower-owned alternative to Fernandez, though, there’s Johnny Cueto. He’s faced 270 batters at home this season, and walked just eight of them, and he’s allowed just a .285 slugging percentage to opposing hitters in AT&T Park (sixth-lowest in MLB). He joins Clayton Kershaw this year as the only players in over 10 years with walk rates below 3.0% and slugging percentages below .285 at home (Mark Buehrle, David Wells, and Brad Radke all did it in 2005). Of course, it’s a stretch to think these numbers will hold until the end of the season, but even so, they underscore just how efficient Cueto has been at home this year. His matchup with Nationals is not perfect (with Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy lurking), but neither is Fernandez’s matchup againt a Cardinals team with a 113 wRC+ against RHP (tied for second-best in MLB) and that recently (somewhat) held Noah Syndergaard upside in check (two earned runs, seven hits, three walks). If you want to bet on Fernandez having an outlier bad start at home, or if you just think Cueto can stay close enough and provide some lineup differentiation, he’s in play in tournaments.
4. Since the All-Star break, Cody Asche is the only player in MLB with a higher soft contact rate than Manny Machado’s 40.5% rate (and that’s including Machado’s home run last night). Still, Machado has hits in each of the last seven games, and with his price is down at some sites ($3700 at FanDuel), now is the time to strike.
5. I’ve written in this column about Chris Davis versus ground ball pitchers (despite his strikeout woes, he’s better than a career .300 hitter against them with a .281 ISO that is best in MLB over that stretch, min. 600 PA). Another Oriole who sees an uptick in production against ground ball pitchers is Matt Wieters, whose .208 ISO against them since entering the league in 2009 is the highest rate among catchers (minimum 600 PA). On a tough day for catching (is there any other type of day?), Wieters’ past success against ground ball pitchers set him up well against Kyle Gibson (52.4% ground ball rate in 2016).
6. Ubaldo Jimenez has a 7.38 ERA in 2016, almost two whole runs higher than his previous career high of 5.40, which he set in 2012. But the Twins are a righty-heavy team, and it’s easy to find reasons to fade their righties in cash games, whether it’s Miguel Sano 36.0 K% against RHP, or Brian Dozier career 90 wRC+ against them (just for some context, that’s not good – it’s the same as the career wRC+ of noted Zach Miner masher Joe Crede). However, Eduardo Nunez and his 26 stolen bases this year (fourth-best in MLB) provides upside at shortstop, given that Jimenez has allowed 16 stolen bases this season, second-most in MLB to Noah Syndergaard 29.
7. David Price has a 38.2% hard contact rate against right-handed batters – that’s seventh-worst in MLB among qualified starters, trailing only Brandon Finnegan, Mike Fiers, Sonny Gray, James Shields, Patrick Corbin, and Jered Weaver, many of whom are pitchers we love to target in DFS. Price is also allowing line drives at a ridiculous 27.9% rate this year, which is highest in MLB (he’s actually tied up to with, interestingly, Jose Fernandez). Very few will look to Mike Trout or Albert Pujols today (especially the BvP truthers, given that they’re a combined 6-for-35 against price), which makes them interesting one-offs for tournaments.
8. Since debuting in 2011, Paul Goldschmidt has 214 combined home runs and steals…that’s 52 more than the next-highest player on the list, Albert Pujols, who has 162 home runs plus steals during that span.
9. Last night, Ian Desmond homered and doubled for his ninth multi-extra-base hit this season. He had six such games all of last year, and he’s now one away from a career high of 10 set in 2013.
10. Brandon Belt has a .352 average against ground ball pitchers since 2015 – that’s the highest average of any player in MLB (min. 200 PA). For his career, he hits .328 against ground ballers and .250 against fly ballers. If you can’t pay up for David Ortiz, or if you’re unable to stomach Chris Davis in a cash game (and who could blame you?), Belt is a viable alternative. He’s a real long shot for a home run against Roark, but he could string together a few hits, which might be enough in cash games.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
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