10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 12th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, June 12, 2016.
1. In his past two starts (at home against the Dodgers and on the road against Philadelphia), Jon Lester has recorded 9+ strikeouts without issuing any walks. That’s the first time in an MLB career that spans more than 10 years that Lester has had two such games in a row. The Cubs lefty has been brilliant in 2016, and against an Atlanta team roughly 40 percent worse than a league-average team against left-handed pitching this year (59 wRC+, league average against LHP is 97), Lester is a tough fade in any format.
2. In his last start, Christian Friedrich (of all pitchers) was a somewhat chalky option against the Braves, and he came through with 6.2 innings, just two earned runs, and seven Ks (further proof that Lester should be the chalk on Sunday). I’ll go out on a limb and predict that he’s a bit lower owned this week against the Rockies at Coors. Among pitchers with at least 85 innings pitched at Coors, Friedrich, a former Rockies first-round pick who pitched in Coors from 2012-2015, has the second-highest batting average allowed at .335, the sixth-highest ERA at 6.96, and the eighth-highest WHIP at 1.723.
3. Michael Fulmer is the first player this season with three consecutive games of 6+ innings pitched, three or fewer hits, and zero earned runs allowed. He’s also the first player in MLB history (dating back to 1913) to have three such games in his first eight career starts, let alone three such games in a row. Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch is notoriously homer-friendly for left-handed batters, and the Yankees can get very left-handed, but Fulmer could be okay – in a small sample of 80 batters faced this year (okay, a really small sample), his 1.35 ERA against lefties is second-best in MLB, trailing only Clayton Kershaw (0.68).
4. On a slate chock full of poor left-handed pitching (John Lamb, Christian Friedrich, Matt Moore, Pat Dean, Robbie Ray, Jon Niese, Wade Miley), the player who has allowed more home runs to righties than any other pitcher on the slate (12, to be exact) isn’t who you might think – it’s Cole Hamels. Hamels has allowed home runs in six consecutive games – only Ivan Nova and Jered Weaver (homers allowed in seven consecutive games) have longer active streaks. He takes on a Mariners team with an MLB-leading 32 home runs against southpaws. This feels like an ideal spot to use a Mariners’ power bat as a one-off in tournaments (Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee), which would have the twofold benefit of helping your score while putting a major dent in the score of anyone owning Hamels in tournaments.
5. In 2016, Aaron Sanchez has cut his wOBA against lefties down by more than 100 points, from .380 in 2015 to .279 this year. He’s relying on his curveball more against lefties this year, using it 52.2% of the time in 2016, up from 51.6% of the time in 2015. And that’s a good thing – in the 134 curveballs Sanchez has thrown to lefties this year, batters have earned just three hits off of it (.077 average). Sanchez has been able to neutralize right-handed hitters by inducing an absurd amount of grounders this year – his 67.0% ground ball rate is the highest in MLB and is nearly 13 percentage points higher than any other pitcher on Sunday’s slate (Dallas Keuchel 54.5% rate rank second). The Orioles’ power makes them a scary team to attack, but Sanchez makes for an interesting GPP play for those gutsy enough to fade the top arms on the slate who are in better matchups (Lester and Steven Matz, specifically).
6. Eduardo Nunez has hit six home runs in his last 16 games dating to May 25. That’s 22.2% of his career homers in an MLB tenure of 466 games, dating back to 2010.
7. Yesterday, I wrote that Xander Bogaerts had more four-hit games than any player since 2015. Well…he did it again. On Saturday, he recorded four hits, including a home run, making him just the second shortstop in MLB history to have two consecutive games of 4+ hits and 1+ homer. The only other player to have done it was J.J. Hardy back in July 2008. Bogaerts faces a lefty in Minnesota’s Pat Dean on Sunday, and it’s another matchup in which he should excel – since 2015, his .374 average against lefties is the best in MLB.
8. Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion have combined for only 15 hits (including just three home runs) in 108 career at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez. Of the 77 batters (including both active and non-active players) Jimenez has faced a minimum of 20 times in his career, Bautista, Smoak, Donaldson, and Encarnacion rank 77, 75, 69, and 56, respectively, in batting average.
9. In 25 career plate appearances at Yankee Stadium, Miguel Cabrera leads all active hitters (min. 25 PA) with a .409 ISO, a mark that is nearly 100 points better than the second-ranked player on the list (David Ortiz, .316 ISO). His batting average in that park, coincidentally, is .409, the same as his ISO.
10. Despite Great American Ballpark being arguably a better park for righty power than Coors Field (FanGraphs has them tied as the top parks for righty HRs), the game between the Reds and Athletics is likely to see reduced ownership, making Danny Valencia, facing a bad lefty in John Lamb, a solid “be contrarian without being stupid” play at third base. A few quick notes about Valencia. In 42 PAs against lefties this year, he leads all hitters in wRC+ (261), wOBA (.538), and ISO (.462). He’s batting .431 in 17 day games this year, which is the best batting average among any player with more than 10 day games. And finally, in the past 30 days, he’s one of only two players with a batting average and ISO both above .350 (he’s got a .356 average and .356 ISO). Can you name the other (Here’s a hint: it’s not Brennan Boesch)? Put it in the comments for a shoutout in Monday’s “10 Notes” article!
Shoutout to STLjordansmith1 for correctly identifying Brennan Boesch as the answer to yesterday’s question! A few others got it, but he was quickest to the draw. Well done, STLjordansmith1.