10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 13th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, June 13, 2016.
1. Monday is a tough day for starting pitching, with Max Scherzer being the only pitcher on the slate to average more than a strikeout per nine innings this year (his 10.90 K/9 ranks fifth in MLB). Scherzer is a master of getting ahead in the count, having gotten to 0-2 on 122 occasions in 2016, the most in MLB. In those counts, he’s struck out 60 batters and allowed just three extra-base hits.
2. There are two issues with Scherzer. First, his penchant for giving up the long ball negates a lot of his strikeout upside against high-powered offenses. He’s allowed 16 home runs this season, which is tied with Jered Weaver for most in MLB. If seeing your $13k SP1 alongside Jered Weaver in any stat doesn’t make you a little queasy, I don’t know what will. The second issue with Scherzer is the matchup. He’s facing a Cubs team that, on May 6 of this season, rocked Scherzer for four home runs – it was just the second time Scherzer had given up four home runs in a game in his career. In selecting pitchers on Monday, you’re going to have to take a chance on somebody, though, and Scherzer’s upside is unparalleled on this slate.
3. There are 59 active pitchers with at least six starts against the Indians since 2005. Of those 59, Edinson Volquez ranks 59th in ERA (8.12), WHIP (2.049), K/BB ratio (1.03), and OPS allowed (.999). Mercifully, his.295 batting average allowed ranks 58th, as Anthony Swarzak allowed the Tribe to hit .318 off him over six starts from 2009-2014.
4. At $4800 at DraftKings (the second-cheapest pitcher on the slate), James Shields is going to be tempting for GPPs on Monday. But his 10.90 ERA over the past 30 days, plus the fact that he recently became the first player since Juan Nicasio in September 2013 to have consecutive starts of less than 3.0 innings and more than 7.0 earned runs, says that he’s in play only for the gutsiest of DFS players.
5. Through the first five games of this year, Zack Greinke had a 6.16 ERA. In the six starts since, he’s dropped that mark to 3.84. Even though Chase Field is far from ideal for pitchers (something we’ll get used to saying with Greinke), he represents the safest pitcher on the slate, as he takes his former team, the Dodgers, who rank in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2016.
6. There are 15 players in MLB with a .300+ batting average and 10+ home runs. Only one of those players is on the Blue Jays, and it’s not Josh Donaldson, or Jose Bautista, or Edwin Encarnacion. It’s Michael Saunders (.302 average, 11 home runs). Saunders is quietly having a breakout year, posting a 153 wRC+ (ranks 10th in MLB), .398 wOBA, and 259 ISO. His 26.8 K% makes him difficult to roster in cash, but on a slate without a ton of can’t-miss hitting options (if there is ever such a thing), Saunders is cash game viable.
7. Since 2015, David Peralta ranks first in MLB among outfielders and seventh among all batters in batting average against right-handed pitchers (min. 200 PAs) with a .316 mark. He ranks fifth in MLB in home batting average with a .323 mark during that span, as well. On Monday, Peralta has both trends working in his favor, as he’s at home against an average (at best) righty in Mike Bolsinger, which puts him squarely in play. Another Diamondbacks lefty to consider is…
8. Jake Lamb, who, since 2015, has a 39.2% hard-contact rate against righties, which ranks third among third basemen, trailing only Matt Carpenter and Brett Wallace. For some context, his 39.2 Hard% is just a tick below Miguel Cabrera, who owns a 39.3% mark during that time frame.
9. With Yu Darvish being scratched for left-hander Cesar Ramos, there’s some value in targeting Oakland righties. Danny Valencia (who I wrote about yesterday) and Khris Davis are known lefty killers, but one cheaper option to consider as a punt is outfielder Jake Smolinski ($2600 at DraftKings),who homered off lefty John Lamb yesterday. Since 2014, he’s got a 161 wRC+ against lefties – that’s ranked seventh in MLB (min. 130 PAs against LHP) behind Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Piscotty, Darin Ruf, Kike Hernandez, and Mike Trout. Plus, his 16.3 K% in that split is lower than any of the aforementioned players.
10. Matt Kemp has a .241 batting average and .248 on-base percentage this year. In 262 plate appearances, he’s drawn four walks.
Shoutout to WilliamPU2003 for getting yesterday’s trivia question correct! Give this man a round of applause, even if you’re in public while you read this. Just do it.