10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 27th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, June 27, 2016.
1. Troy Tulowitzki makes his return to Colorado on Monday, as his Blue Jays will face off against Jon Gray and the Rockies at Coors. From 2006 (the year of his debut in the majors) to 2015 (the year he was traded to the Blue Jays), no hitter has more multi-hit games in Coors Field than Tulowitzki’s 179 (Carlos Gonzalez is next-highest on the list with 156 multi-hit games). With eight hits (including three home runs) in 27 plate appearances since returning from injury, it appears Tulo is back at full strength, and the timing couldn’t be better.
2. Since 2014, Carlos Gonzalez has a .328 ISO against fly ball pitchers. Only Mike Trout (.357) has been better during that stretch. Against Marco Estrada, whose 49.8% fly ball rate in 2016 leads the majors, CarGo is as good a bet as anyone to homer on Monday.
3. Noah Syndergaard is not Clayton Kershaw in terms of generating strikeouts and limiting walks (Kershaw’s 16.11 K/BB ratio is on pace to shatter the previous all-time high of 11.63, set by Phil Hughes in 2014), but that’s an unfair comparison, and Syndergaard is still elite in this category. Syndergaard currently has 30.8 K% and a 3.4 BB%, and if he can keep it up, he and Kershaw will join Sale and Scherzer (who, along with Kershaw, did it in 2015), Randy Johnson (2004), Curt Schilling (2002), and Pedro Martinez (1999 and 2000) as the only pitchers with a K-rate higher than 30 percent and a BB-rate below 5 percent in MLB history.
4. Jake Arrieta has issued four or more walks on five separate occasions in 2016 (15 games started). Prior to this year, he’s started 67 games as a Cub and walked four or more on…five occasions. and he’s had five games as a Cub 2013-2015 before this year. His 15.2 BB% in the past 14 days is tied for highest on this slate, and it’s the sixth-highest rate in MLB during that span, and the company he’s keeping – he’s just behind Paul Clemens, James Shields, Jhoulys Chacin, John Lamb, and Chris Young – is alarming, especially for a pitcher in his price range.
5. Last year, Chi Chi Gonzalez walked 32 batters and struck out 30 in 67 innings pitched. He was the first player since Jake Westbrook in 2013 to exceed 60 innings and walk more batters than he struck out. However, before rushing out and rostering all the Yankees lefties, bear in mind that Gonzalez had a minuscule 20.2% fly ball rate with one home run allowed in 29.2 innings pitched against lefties.
6. In 2015, Trevor Bauer had the highest walk rate in the majors (10.6 BB%), and he ranked 63rd of 78 qualified pitchers in zone percentage, hitting the strike zone just 42.7% of the time. The 2016 version of Bauer has brought his walk rate below league average (7.8 BB%, league average is 8.2%), and he’s hitting the strike zone with 50.0% of his pitches, more than any other pitcher on Monday’s slate, and the eighth-most in MLB.
7. Since 2015, only two players in MLB have a wOBA above .400 and an ISO above .300 against left-handed pitching. One is obvious: it’s notorious lefty masher Nelson Cruz. The other? It’s Logan Forsythe, who should be leading off against a homer-prone lefty in Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez. Given the glut of positive hitting environments in play on Monday (Coors, Chase Field, Yankee Stadium, Great American Ballpark), Forsythe
could be largely ignored in tournaments. Another Ray who could fly under the radar is…
8. Evan Longoria, who has 63 home runs against left-handed pitching since his career started in 2008 – that’s more than any other third baseman in baseball over that stretch.
9. Anthony Rizzo is in the middle of a seven-game hitting streak in which his OPS is, get ready…1.469. This stretch represents the second-highest OPS he’s ever recorded over an eight-game span. On the last day of May, Rizzo’s batting average was at .236. After hitting .397 in June (the highest average in MLB), he’s brought his season average up nearly 50 points (.283). There’s a good chance he’ll be facing righties all night in Cincinnati, as starter Dan Straily will be followed by a string of righty relievers (Tony Cingrani, the Reds’ lone left-handed reliever, threw 13 pitches last night). This feels like a night where Cubs lefties will be underowned, making Rizzo an elite tournament play.
10. In games where Matt Shoemaker has used the splitter at least 30 percent of the time (each of the last eight games), he has a 10.64 K/9. For context, Nolan Ryan is the only Angels pitcher to ever have a full season with 10+ strikeouts per nine (he did it in 1972, 1973, 1976, and 1977). Against the Astros, there are strikeouts to be had – they strike out at a 24.3% clip against righties, third most in MLB. Sure, the Astros are full of dangerous power bats, and sure, Shoemaker gave up a homer and three earned in his last start against this same Astros team. But unlike last start, he’s at home on Monday, and he hasn’t allowed a home run at Angels Stadium in five straight starts dating back to April 24.