10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 30th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, June 30, 2016.
1. In the month of June, only five pitchers in baseball have a SIERA below 3.00, a K% above 28.0%, and a HR/9 of 1.00 or less – Jose Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Danny Duffy, and Jacob deGrom are joined by three of Thursday’s pitchers, Zach Davies (3.05 SIERA, 28.8 K%, .55 HR/9 in June), Michael Pineda (2.76 SIERA, 30.8 K%, .90 HR/9), and Madison Bumgarner (3.10 SIERA, 29.3 K%, 1.00 HR/9).
2. Madison Bumgarner has a 5.06 ERA in four career starts against the Oakland Athletics – that’s the highest ERA he’s allowed to any team in MLB he’s faced at least three times. Does this mean you should fade Bumgarner? Probably not, since he’s the only clear-cut ace taking the hill on Thursday. Still, it might be wise to keep expectations in check, as he takes on an Athletics team that strikes out at the fourth-lowest rate against lefties this year (18.3%) and that hasn’t allowed double-digit Ks to a starter since Felix Hernandez struck out 10 A’s on April 10.
3. In his last 10 starts, Zach Davies is 5-0 with a 2.64 ERA. Sure, it’s only 10 starts, but just for something to consider: that 2.64 ERA is the same posted by Randy Johnson in his Cy Young Award-winning season for the D-backs in 2002, Steve Carlton in his Cy Young Award-winning season for the Phillies in 1977, and Frank Viola in his Cy Young Award-winning for the Twins in 1988. Davies’ matchup on Thursday isn’t ideal, as the Dodgers will certainly pack their lineup with lefties, but even so, they’re a team that ranks in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA (.303, ranks 24th), ISO (.148, ranks 22nd), and wRC+ (90, ranks 20th) against right-handed pitchers in 2016.
4. The St. Louis Cardinals have a .231 ISO, .351 OBP, and .839 OPS against fly ball pitchers this year, all of which are tops in MLB. Their opponent, Kansas City’s Chris Young, is an extreme fly ball pitcher who has allowed a league-leading 21 home runs this year. A few Cardinals who have particularly excelled against fly ball pitchers in 2016: Matt Carpenter (.381 ISO vs. FB pitchers, 4th-best in MLB, to go with a .321 average and 1.150 OPS), Aledmys Diaz (.308 ISO vs. FB pitchers), Matt Holliday (.413 ISO vs. FB pitchers, the best mark in MLB), and Yadier Molina (.358 average vs. FB pitchers, compared to his .266 mark vs. GB pitchers). And then there’s Brandon Moss, who has four home runs in 19 career at-bats against Chris Young.
5. Matt Carpenter is completing a historically productive month for the Cardinals. Since 2006, there have been 10 instances of a Cardinals player having an OPS higher than 1.130 in a single month. Nine of those months belong to Albert Pujols. The other belongs to Matt Carpenter, who, this June, has a 1.211 OPS that ranks fifth on that list.
6. One more Carpenter note (in case you haven’t noticed, he’ll be in my lineups today): he is one of four players since 2015 with an on-base percentage above .400 and an ISO above .270 against RHP – the others are David Ortiz, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout.
7. Thirty of Miguel Cabrera ’s 34 extra-base hits in 2016 have come off right-handed pitchers. His opponent, Jake Odorizzi, is a reverse splits pitcher who does his best work against lefties – his 45.6% fly ball rate against righties is the highest of any pitcher on the slate not named Chris Young.
8. Fifty-three of the Reds’ bullpen’s MLB-high 61 home runs allowed in 2016 have come from batters swinging from the left side of the plate. For comparison’s sake, no other bullpen in MLB has allowed more than 41 total home runs. Their 1.53 HR/9 to left-handed batters is the highest rate in 12 years, when in 2004, a team allowed a 1.59 HR/9 to lefties – that team was the Cincinnati Reds. For this reason, it might be worth disregarding the lack of platoon advantage against Reds starter Brandon Finnegan and targeting…
9. Bryce Harper, who has a .375 on-base percentage in games where he’s struck out at least one time. For context: only 23 players in MLB have a better total OPS than .375 this year.
10. Using Anthony Rizzo against lefties has been an interesting strategy in tournaments given the low ownership as a result of the lefty/lefty matchup paired with the fact that he’s been effective against them in his career (.373 wOBA against LHP since 2015). But considering that Steven Matz has shown (in a limited sample) a penchant for inducing tons of grounders to lefties (MLB-high 79.2% ground ball rate against LHB this year), and considering Rizzo has been shifted against in 171 of his plate appearances, sixth-most in MLB, it’s safe to say Rizzo’s upside is limited on Thursday.