10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 31st
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Wednesday, May 31st.
1. The San Francisco Giants rank dead last in MLB in average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. And on Wednesday, they host Max Scherzer, fresh on the heels of his 13-strikeout gem against the Padres. Max Scherzer’s only weakness over the years is that his fly ball tendencies result in a few too many home runs. The Giants’ AT&T Park, which has yielded the fewest home runs in baseball this year (per Baseball Prospectus) mitigates the home run risk normally present when going all-in on Scherzer. On a short main slate rich with high-end pitching, Scherzer still takes the prize as the “don’t overthink it” play of the day for cash games.
2. Jacob deGrom has struck out six or more batters in 15 straight home games dating back to May 10th, 2016. deGrom has been a better pitcher at home throughout his career, and 2017 has been no different, as he’s striking out 35.0% of batters at CitiField (only Archer, Scherzer, and Sale strike out batters at a higher rate at home). The Milwaukee Brewers, deGrom’s opponent on Wednesday, are a boom-or-bust matchup that strikes out at a 24.1% clip against right-handed pitching, third-highest in MLB. It seems likely that deGrom can keep the streak of six-strikeout games alive, and if you’re fading Scherzer in cash games, it’s likely because deGrom carries similar upside at a lower price.
3. One more deGrom note: through just 10 starts, he has gotten 15% swinging strikes six times. In 24 starts in 2016, he reached that number twice. deGrom is clearly trying to transform himself into a high-strikeout pitcher, and while he’s paying for it a bit with higher walks and hard contact, it’s a tradeoff DFS players should be happy with.
4. Chris Archer has a 50% hard hit rate versus lefties this year – that’s the highest mark in MLB. Like deGrom, Archer has long been a pitcher whose numbers at home far exceed those of his on the road. On Wednesday, Archer is not only not at home, but he’s pitching in Globe Life Park in the Texas heat (early forecasts have temperatures in the mid-80s at game time, and hotter temperatures tend to work to the hitters’ advantage). While the Rangers are a middle-of-the-road offense against right-handed pitching for the season, they do boast a few dangerous lefties (Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo). For that reason, Archer makes more sense as a tournament play.
5. Jaime Garcia has a 67.6% ground ball rate and a low 21.1% hard contact rate in the month of May; the only two pitchers to better those numbers this month are Dallas Keuchel and Alex Wood. Garcia really struggled in April, and not coincidentally, he posted a career-low 43.6% ground ball rate that month. With four straight games with a ground ball rate above 60.0%, Garcia seems to be back to the grounder-heavy ways that made him, at one time, a reliable SP2 option in the right matchups. His matchup on Wednesday seems to be one of these “right matchups”: the Angels have a 50.2% ground ball rate against lefties (fourth-highest in MLB), which should help him keep the ball on the ground, and they rank in the bottom five of MLB in batting average and OPS against ground ball pitchers this year (and those numbers were accrued with Mike Trout, who will be out for the next six to eight weeks). It’s going to be difficult to pay up for two high-end pitchers at two-pitcher sites on Wednesday, so Garcia feels like a safe SP2 option for cash games.
6. Kyle Seager doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a masher of right-handed pitching. Since 2016, only three hitters have a wOBA better than .370, a strikeout rate less than 15.0%, and a hard hit rate greater than 40.0% against righties – David Ortiz, Joey Votto, and Seager. Antonio Senzatela has been excellent this year, but his numbers have been artificially inflated due to a low BABIP (.241) and high strand rate (84.2%). With this game being at SafeCo and not Coors Field, Seager is far from an auto-play, but I’m willing to take a chance on Seager, especially with his modest price tag across the industry.
7. With two more hits last night, Corey Dickerson now has a league-leading 24 multi-hit games this season; he had 32 multi-hit games all of last season. Against Austin Bibens-Dirkx (which sounds like it’s a character from This is Spinal Tap), the Rays have a 4.93 implied run total, third-highest of the day. Dickerson and the Rays get a massive ballpark upgrade, and he’ll be one of the top overall plays of the day batting out of the leadoff spot.
8. Alex Avila has a 0.0% soft contact rate and a 60.0% hard contact rate over the past 14 days; both numbers are best in MLB. Avila has come out of nowhere this season, and as long as he continues to hit out of the two spot in Detroit’s lineup, he’s an elite play any time he faces a right-handed pitcher. On Wednesday, he faces Ian Kennedy and his 47.7% fly ball rate and 38.5% hard contact rate against left-handed batters. That could spell trouble, especially since Avila has (in a small sample) crushed fly ball pitchers this year, slashing .429/.529/.690 against them. DraftKings, in particular, refuses to raise his price, and he also has the added appeal of being first base eligible.
9. Hanley Ramirez has a .078 ISO against ground ball pitchers since 2016. Here is a short list of hitters who have higher ISOs than Ramirez’s against ground ball pitchers: Billy Hamilton, Joe Panik, Yadier Molina, Jon Jay. You get the idea. And while there is surely some noise in “versus ground ball/fly ball pitcher” stats, comparing that to Ramirez’s .264 ISO against fly ball pitchers indicates that, while the matchup with Mike Pelfrey (51.6% ground ball rate versus righties this year) seems favorable, we may want to look elsewhere for Boston bats. Among Red Sox who excel against ground ball pitchers are Mookie Betts (.353 average, .233 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (.396 average, .230 ISO).
10. Don’t be fooled by Salvador Perez’s low .230 wOBA against left-handed pitching this year. His xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average, a metric that uses launch angle and exit velocity to filter out the “luck” from wOBA) is a much more respectable .351, and the .121 gap between his xwOBA and wOBA is the largest in MLB this year (min. 40 at-bats). For some reason, Perez’s price has dropped to $2,900 at DraftKings; he’s the 15th-highest-priced catcher behind guys like Curt Casali, Jesus Sucre, and Travis d’Arnaud.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!