10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 5th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Friday, May 5th.
1. Since 2016, Chris Archer has notched six or more strikeouts in 16 home games; that’s tied with Chris Sale for most such games in MLB during that stretch. Archer has elite strikeout upside on Friday, as the Blue Jays strike out at a healthy 22.0% clip against righties this year. The 2017 version of the Jays ranks in the bottom five in MLB in wOBA (.287) and wRC+ (79) against righties, and their .138 ISO (ranked 24th) isn’t anything to write home about, either. And besides, Archer had success against this team even when they were equipped with the power bats of Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion; he has seven straight starts of two or fewer earned runs against Toronto dating all the way back to 2015.
2. Stephen Strasburg has a 53.1% ground ball rate this year, which is 13th-highest among qualified pitchers in MLB; that number is up a whopping 13.6% from last year, when he was at 39.5%. The tradeoff here, of course, is that his strikeouts are down: his 22.6 K% ranks 26th, behind Michael Wacha. There’s probably no reason to worry, as Strasburg’s swinging strike rate is right in line with his career norms, which means the low K% could be partly small sample size mirage. But if he can sustain the ground ball rate and continue to limit home runs, he’ll be in rare company, because…
3. Strasburg is one of just four qualified arms with a ground ball rate above 53%, a swinging strike rate above 10%, and a HR/9 of below below 1.00. On that list, he joins, Noah Syndergaard, Dallas Keuchel, and more surprisingly…Andrew Triggs, who has a home matchup with the Tigers. Triggs has been a surprise for Oakland since he debuted last year, and he’s been effective against both lefties and righties. Triggs has gotten legitimately torched in one outing this season is also one of two starters this, but other than that one misstep, his game logs are spotless. In fact, he’s one of two starters (along with James Paxton) with four games this season of at least five innings and zero earned runs allowed.
4. Dallas Keuchel’s current eight-game streak of seven-plus innings and two or fewer earned runs is the longest by a pitcher since 2014 (when Johnny Cueto had nine straight, and Felix had 16 straight). He’s always viable for cash. We normally prefer Keuchel at home, but when he’s allowing hitters to slash .179/.233/.345 with a .252 wOBA, 1.88 ERA, as Keuchel is during this stretch, home/road splits seem to take on less importance. He’s dominant right now, and while his strikeouts (particularly against the Angels) may cap his tournament upside, you won’t find a higher floor for cash games.
5. Since 2016, the Royals have walked at a 6.3% rate against right-handed pitching, which is by far the lowest rate in MLB – the next-lowest BB% is 7.2 (four teams tied). Their free-swinging approach actually helps the cause of Danny Salazar, whose 15.9% swinging strike rate is second only to “(player-popup)Chris Sale”:/players/chris-sale-10976’s, and whose 76.5% zone contact rate allowed is third-best in MLB behind only Sale and Jacob deGrom. Further, Salazar’s tendency to issue free passes (he’s walked multiple batters in every outing this year) is mitigated somewhat. He isn’t always cash game safe, but this matchup lines up nicely for Salazar.
6. Phil Hughes had a 47.4 Hard% in April, which is bad, even by his standards; in fact, it’s his highest hard contact rate in any single month in a career that dates back to 2007. It was second-highest of any pitcher in April. The Red Sox’ 38.6% hard contact rate against RHP is second only to the Tigers. All this adds up to a ton of balls in play for the Sox, especially when you consider…
7. Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts have combined for 26 strikeouts in their first 305 PAs this year. That’s an 8.5 K%. For context, last season, Joe Panik had the lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters in all of baseball at 8.9%. For more context, 42 individual players have fanned more than 26 times this season. While it’s always understandable to try and fit in as much Coors as possible, a Red Sox stack might come in at slightly lower ownership, and the upside isn’t far from that of the Rockies or Diamondbacks.
8. Since 2014, only three players have a .314 average and a 37 percent hard hit rate against righties (min. 600 PA): Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and…David Peralta. Sure, the .367 BABIP plays into it, but against German Marquez, who has shown no ability to get lefties out (.390 wOBA and just a 15.8% K rate in a small sample), Peralta and his Diamondback counterparts have to be considered the top targets of the night.
9. Lance Lynn’s 12.3 K% against lefties ranks 88th of 106 qualified starters. The pitcher ranked just ahead of him on that list with a 13.0% K rate to lefties is a pitcher nobody should ever want to be compared to: Jered Weaver. And to make matters worse, Lynn is charged with pitching in SunTrust Stadium, home to Freddie Freeman (who in April became the first Braves hitter since Javy Lopez in 2000 to hit nine homers and bat .368 in any month). Freeman will almost certainly be low-owned, assuming most in the “pay up at first base” crowd will pay up for Paul Goldschmidt. This makes him an excellent tournament play on Friday.
10. So far this season, Jay Bruce has a 15.5% K rate and a .320 ISO. The only other player in MLB with a sub-16.0% K rate and a .320 ISO or better? Bruce’s old teammate, Joey Votto, who, very much unlike Bruce, is known for his elite plate skills. (And here’s another interesting note: Bruce’s 159 wRC+ is actually higher than Votto’s 148 mark thus far). It’s probably wise to rely on the larger sample for K rate – up to this year, Bruce hasn’t dipped below 20% in strikeouts any season since 2009 – but as long as Bruce is hitting for power and not whiffing, the “GPP only” label he’s been saddled with is losing steam. On Friday, Bruce (and all the Mets lefties) are very much in play against Tom Koehler, who has already allowed a homer to five out of the 50 lefties he’s faced this season.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from “RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year (days to be determined), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about Mondays’s slate of MLB games.