10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Monday, April 2nd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are Monday, April 2nd.
Monday, April 2nd
1. In 2015, Charlie Morton reached 95 mph on 1.10 percent of his total pitches (22 of 1,996 total pitches); since the start of 2016, Morton has touched 95 mph on the radar gun on 716 of 2,667 pitches, or 26.85 percent of pitches thrown. Morton, once viewed strictly as a ground ball specialist, unlocked some previously untapped velocity starting with his 2016 campaign, and with it came the strikeouts: entering 2016, he had averaged 15.8% strikeouts in his career entering 2016, but from 2016 to 2017, that number ballooned all the way to 26.5%.
2. Eh, it’s a slow day for pitching, so how about another Morton note? Above, I mentioned Morton’s 26.5% strikeout rate since 2016. While he has traded in some grounders for the increase in strikeouts – this was a guy who annually posted a ground ball rate north of 60 percent for several years – Morton still managed to induce a respectable 52.9% ground balls from 2016 to 2017. The only pitcher in MLB (min. 160 innings) to match Morton in both of those categories? His teammate, Lance McCullers. While it will never not feel strange to pay a premium for Charlie Freaking Morton, it’s becoming clear that he possesses a rare ability to pile up strikeouts without sacrificing a high ground ball rate. Even against a dangerous Orioles lineup, Morton is the clear chalk on an abysmal slate for pitching.
3. Since whiffing eight Astros in six innings of scoreless work on May 20th, 2017, Mike Clevinger has 10 games of 6+ strikeouts and one or fewer earned runs allowed; that’s the same number as Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray, and more than Justin Verlander, Masahiro Tanaka, Zack Greinke, Rich Hill, and Aaron Nola, to name a few. In fact, the only players with more such games during that stretch – Severino, Kluber, Sale, Kershaw, Scherzer, Carrasco, Strasburg – don’t even require last names. Quietly, Clevinger is becoming an excellent strikeout pitcher, thanks in large part to a slider that ranked third among MLB starters with a 22.4% swinging strike rate, trailing only the offerings by Scherzer and Carrasco. Like Morton, Clevinger is in a less-than-perfect matchup against Mike Trout and company. On an ugly slate for pitching, though, he’s arguably the highest-upside arm on the slate.
4. Taijuan Walker was one of two starting pitchers in MLB (joining Marcus Stroman) to post an ERA of 3.94 or below in all six months of the 2017 season (min. 3 games started). While Walker hasn’t made the strikeout gains many hoped for based on his raw stuff and prospect pedigree, he’s been slowly working his way towards becoming a consistently effective mid-rotation starter. The command isn’t great (his 8.9% walk rate ranked 15th in MLB last year), and he can still get in trouble with the long balls (1.39 HR/9 at home last year), but there are positives, as well. He’s increased his ground ball rate each of the past three seasons (38.6% in 2015, 44.1% in 2016, 48.9% in 2017), all without compromising his roughly league average strikeout ability (21.5% since 2015). All things considered, he’s become a pretty, pretty, pretty good pitcher lately, and on a slate like Monday’s, that’s enough to make him a solid cash game option, even in a tough matchup with the Dodgers.
5. In MLB history, only Ernie Banks (79), Nomar Garciaparra (79), and Alex Rodriguez (68) have hit more home runs in their first 365 MLB games than Correa’s 67 dingers. Against Chris Tillman, owner of the highest FIP in all of MLB last year, all the Astros bats are in play. But Correa stands out for his .246 ISO and 38.6 hard hit rate against righties since 2017, both of which are best on the team. In other news, Correa swiped a bag on Sunday, something he did just twice in all of 2017. Obviously, it’s one steal, but if Correa were to start running with any regularity, he’d become an even better play on an almost nightly basis.
6. Matt Olson’s .469 ISO on fastballs ranked second in MLB behind only J.D. Martinez (min. 50 at-bats ending in fastball). On Monday, Olson should be salivating as he takes on Bartolo Colon, who, at the tender age of 44, throws (almost literally) only fastballs. Even better, Olson’s swing-and-miss tendencies (27.8% K rate last year; 8 strikeouts in 14 at-bats so far in 2018) should come without the “miss” in the matchup given Colon’s measly 13.3% strikeout rate to lefties last season. If you’re speculating on home runs (and you should be, since – I don’t know if you’ve heard – home runs get you a lot of points in DFS), hop over to Joe Cistaro’s excellent Home Run Derby blog and make your calls. Olson will be on my list.
7. Only three players since 2015 have a .390+ wOBA combined with a sub-13.0% K rate against left-handed pitching (min. 320 PA) – Jose Altuve, Adrian Beltre, and Anthony Rendon. Rendon never seems to get the love he deserves, but certainly a part of the Altuve/Votto phylum of guys who can crush it but don’t, as a rule, strike out. On Monday, Rendon faces talented Braves lefty Sean Newcomb, and he (along with teammate Ryan Zimmerman, with a career 139 wRC+ against LHP) makes for a fantastic under-the-radar tournament play, though he may be an even better play in cash games given his on-base ability and Newcomb’s Liriano-esque 13.8% walk rate to righties last season (and if you’re new to DFS, “Liriano-esque” is rarely used as a compliment).
8. Only two hitters in MLB since 2017 have blasted 40 homers with a strikeout rate below 21.0% – Edwin Encarnacion, and Justin Smoak. Smoak continues to be egregiously priced at DraftKings, and at just $3,400 and on the heels of his double-dong game on Sunday, his ownership should be sky high. Personally, I don’t care. Reynaldo Lopez has yet to develop a putout pitch, and if Smoak is going to make contact, odds are he’s going to hit it hard: last year, he reached 95 mph on 111 batted balls in the air, the sixth-most in MLB (trailing only Ozuna, Castellanos, Judge, Khris Davis, Machado).
9. Speaking of Blue Jays, of the 132 players with at least 150 at-bats ending in a four-seam fastball last year, Curtis Granderson ranked 20th in MLB last year in ISO, with a .292 mark that ties him with Freddie Freeman. Some big names he ranked above on that list: Anthony Rizzo, George Springer, Edwin Encarnacion, Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant the list goes on. Granderson is a flawed player, but one thing he’s still capable of is getting hold of a fastball. That could benefit him against Reynaldo Lopez, who still lacks a secondary swing-and-miss offering. If Granderson has a favorable lineup spot, at just $3,000 at DraftKings, he’s viable as a salary saver.
10. Through the first three games of 2018, Freddie Freeman has taken seven walks; the last player to earn seven free passes in the first three games of a season was Gary Sheffield in 1997. That may sound like a positive, but for DFS purposes, it’s a bit worrisome. More worrisome, though, is the MLB-low 25.0% of pitches Freeman has seen inside the strike zone. Of course, it’s three games, and this may (probably will, actually) mean very little as the season moves along. But without many other threats in the Braves lineup, pitchers simply aren’t throwing to Freeman, which is certainly worth monitoring moving forward, as it will put a damper on his upside if it continues.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!