10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Tuesday, June 4th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Tuesday, June 4th.
1. Stephen Strasburg is having his usual dominant year, but he’s not standing still; this year, he’s upped his curveball usage to 30.4 percent, 14th-highest in MLB (min. 500 pitches). It’s an elite offering, and he’s allowed just one extra-base hit in 81 plate appearances ending with the pitch: a double to Pete Alonso back on March 30th. That amounts to a .013 ISO against the pitch (and that’s not a typo). Here’s hoping he makes liberal use of his Uncle Charlie against the White Sox, who rank 27th in team wOBA against curveballs (.236). And if we pull up the PlateIQ to see how the individual White Sox hitters have fared against the pitch, it’s a massacre of red:
The lone bright spot is projected #9 hitter Charlie Tilson, in eight batted ball events (and that’s a Derek Carty-certified small sample size). Even if we zoom out a bit to the less granular, we can see this is a matchup Strasburg should exploit, as the White Sox have the second-highest strikeout rate in MLB against right-handed pitching (26.4%). He’s he clear top option on the mound tonight, as long as you’re willing to spend up to get him.
2. If you ignore David Hess and Andrew Cashner (and really, why wouldn’t you ignore David Hess and Andrew Cashner whenever you can?), the Giants have put up 3 or fewer earned runs against 14 consecutive right-handed starters dating back to May 12th. This team is abysmal against righties, which means that Noah Syndergaard is in a pristine bounce-back matchup. Syndergaard is admittedly, one of the more frustrating pitchers to roster in DFS, because how does a guy who throws 100 and has insane stuff and never walks anyone and looks so physically imposing on the mound always, always seem to give up 3 or 4 earned runs? I believe that Noah Syndergaard is better than David Hess and Andrew Cashner. I believe Noah Syndergaard will limit the earned runs and rack up a bucket of Ks in the process. I believe Noah Syndergaard is a cash game pitcher today.
3. From a run prevention standpoint, Blake Snell was always going to regress a bit from his Cy Young campgain in 2019, and to some extent, he already has. Consider this: Snell already has five games of a .400+ BABIP; last year, he had 3 such games all year. Here’s what really counts: his strikeouts and walks are going in the right direction. Take a look at his K% and BB% over the past 3 seasons:
2017 – 21.8 K%, 10.8 BB%
2018 – 31.6 K%, 9.1 BB%
2019 – 34.9 K%, 7.1 BB%
Snell’s 2.99 SIERA ranks third in MLB behind only Cole (2.72) and Scherzer (2.94), further indicating that, despite the (gasp!) ERA above 3.00, Snell is even better than he was last year. The Tigers represent one of the better possible matchups for Snell, who shouldn’t be bothered by their righty-heavy lineup: he’s punched out 35.0 percent of righties and held them to a 29.1 percent hard-hit rate. He’s got as much upside as any pitcher on the slate, and heavy exposure in GPPs seems like a good allocation of funds.
4. Since 2018, Hyun-Jin Ryu has faced 594 batters; he’s allowed one of those batters to walk on four pitchers. Ryu’s on another planet right now, in terms of control, which is why he hasn’t walked more than a batter in a game all season. So he’s moved into elite pitcher territory, but how’s the matchup? Well, it’s not great, Bob (feels like it’s time for a Mad Men re-watch…). Shockingly, the Diamondbacks rank 1st in MLB in team ISO against lefties with a .237 mark. Their low 20.8 percent strikeout rate against southpaws also means Ryu’s upside is capped a bit. It feels like Ryu occupies a no-man’s land today: with several intriguing cash-game-viable arms on the slate (Strasburg, Snell, Syndergaard, to name a few), his ownership should be suppressed, but he doesn’t have huge upside for tournaments. Then again, 6 innings, 1 earned run, and 8 strikeouts seems like plenty of upside, which happens to be the exact line he posted when he faced the Diamondbacks in his first start of the year.
5. Max Fried only allows barrels on 3.3 percent of batted balls; that’s the fourth-best rate in MLB (min. 100 BBE). Along with teammate Mike Soroka, Fried has been working wonders with his ability to limit quality contact, and on Tuesday, he finds himself in an exploitable matchup against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the third-lowest ISO in MLB against lefties (.122), the third-lowest wOBA (.282), and (surprise!) the third-lowest wRC+ at 73. They’re consistent, if nothing else. And so is Fried, which is why he’s a safe (if unexciting), high-floor SP2 for cash games, particularly at DraftKings where salary can be a bit tight.
6. Shin-Soo Choo has hit 55.1 percent of his batted balls at 95 mph or better, which ranks second in MLB only to Joey Gallo. He is an excellent play against Dylan Bundy, who just can’t quit giving up the dingers. Bundy’s 80 homers allowed is most in MLB since 2017, and he’s the only pitcher in MLB with a 1.98 HR/9 in each of the last two seasons. Bundy and the inept Orioles bullpen (MLB-high 1.92 HR/9 allowed) are certain to give up a few homers, and with a hefty 5.74 implied run total, the Rangers (and specifically Choo) are priority bats on Tuesday.
7. We’re probably several hundred (or more?) plate appearances shy of being able to draw any big conclusions about Ronald Acuna’s platoon splits. But thus far in his career, he’s crushed left-handed pitching. He’s got a .416 wOBA and 45.7 percent hard hits against southpaws since 2018, and that puts him in an elite class of other “lefty mashers”: Giancarlo Stanton, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Eugenio Suarez are the only others with that combination. Acuna faces Pirates lefty Steven Brault, a lefty who, in a career 137 1/3 innings against righties, has allowed a .365 wOBA. Considering his upside, Acuna feels a bit underpriced at both DraftKings ($4,500) and FanDuel ($4,000), putting him squarely in play in all formats.
8. Quietly, Matt Olson has the second-best hard-hit rate in MLB, at 55.4 percent; only Joey Gallo has been better in that regard. Although he’s bound to carry a lower-than-typical BABIP because of his fly ball tendencies, the .224 mark Olson is carrying now is still well below the .275 mark for his career mark entering 2019. All of the Athletics seem underpriced (Khris Davis at $3,600, anyone?), but Olson feels like a good way to pay down at first base in order to spend up at pitcher, especially as he has the platoon advantage against a pitcher who has given up some home runs (Griffin Canning has allowed 1.67 HR/9 over his first six career starts).
9. Take a look at how often Javier Baez has hit the ball to the opposite field over the past few seasons:
It’s been well documented that Baez’s approach at the plate isn’t always pretty: you need watch only one or two plate appearances before seeing him swing so hard at a breaking pitch well off the plate that he nearly falls over. He strikes out often, and though he’s improved a bit, he still rarely walks (6.5 BB% in 2019). Even so, he’s continually improving as a hitter. He’s not trying to pull everything, and that’s part of the reason why he’s able to maintain such a high batting average even with all those strikeouts. Here’s the deal: Baez is priced down, the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, and he’s facing a pitcher in Colorado’s Jeff Hoffman who has a career .396 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters. Baez is a core play on Tuesday’s slate.
10. Luke Voit’s career numbers against fly ball pitchers (222 PA): .227/.320/.448 with a .222 ISO.
Luke Voit’s career numbers against ground ball pitchers (74 PA): .373/.432/.716 with a .343 ISO.
In a small sample, Luke Voit has destroyed ground ball pitchers throughout his career (and that slugging difference is especially noteworthy since players tend to slug more against fly ball pitchers, for obvious reasons). On Tuesday, he faces Clayton Richard, a pitcher whose only strength in the past has been his ability to keep the ball low in the zone and generate grounders. If Richards leaves one of his 90-mph sinkers just a bit too high in the zone, Voit should have no trouble lifting it into the seats. There’s no reason to go here in cash games, but in GPPs, the Yankees could go a bit overlooked. If so, Voit is a great path to big home run upside at low ownership.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!