10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Wednesday, August 15th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Wednesday, August 15th.
Wednesday, August 15th
1. After posting a 23.1 percent strikeout rate in 2017, Gerrit Cole is up to 34.2 percent strikeouts this season, an improvement of 11.1 percent; prior to Cole, no pitcher has seen an 11.1 percent spike in his K rate since 2004, when Ben Sheets’s 28.2 percent strikeout rate represented an 11.3 percent jump from his 2003 mark (16.9%). Cole continues to dazzle in the strikeout department, and if he can maintain his current rate, he’d join an elite club of starters who have maintained a 34 percent rate over a full season (Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Fernandez). He’s in a positive matchup against a Rockies team that is taking a major park downgrade and that is fairly middle-of-the-road when outside of their home confines (team wOBA of .300 on the road ranks 21st in MLB; team ISO of .163 ranks 15th). As always, the only question is whether he’s affordable enough to slot in as a cash game SP1. He’s in a tier all by himself on this slate as far as upside is concerned, and his $12,200 isn’t egregiously expensive, which means that by the end of the day, we should have enough value to fit in Cole in cash games.
2. Since June 27th, only five pitchers in MLB (min. 30 IP) have a strikeout rate above 26 percent and an ERA at 2.22 or below: Chris Sale, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Jacob deGrom, and … Zack Wheeler. June 27th may seem like an arbitrarily selected date, but it was in that game that Wheeler began relying more heavily on his slider (16.3% usage before June 27th; 24.7% since June 27th). The slider is gaining in velocity (90.9 MPH average, up from 88.0 last year), and it’s generating heavy ground balls, with a 59.2 percent ground ball rate that ranks third-best among all sliders in MLB (min. 200 pitches). It’s also one of the main reasons he’s been able to perplex right-handed hitters, allowing them just a .263 wOBA and a microscopic 21.1 percent hard hits. Baltimore has six righties in their projected lineup, plus a couple non-threatening lefties (Jonathan Villar, Chris Davis, somebody named Cedric Mullins that keeps putting the awkward picture of ex-Warrior great Chris Mullin in a baseball uniform into my head). The days of bargain-bin price tags for Wheeler are gone, but even at his elevated price tag of $10,800, Wheeler brings a high-floor, high-ceiling combo that could pay off in tournaments.
3. Speaking of effective sliders, how about Shane Bieber? Hitters have managed a paltry .045 ISO against his slide piece, which ranks eighth-best in MLB (min. 200 pitches). For context, that places his slider just between the offerings of Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer. Bieber continues to impress, and he continues to do so by throwing strike after strike. But he does have the ability to miss bats, as well. In fact, he’s one of five players with an 11.4 percent swinging strike rate and a sub-5.0 percent walk rate. The others? Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Carlos Carrasco. The chink in Bieber’s armor (alright, now I’m thinking of Justin Bieber wearing armor…this article is getting weird) is that he’s given up 43.2 percent fly balls and 46.2 percent hard hits to lefties this year, a combination that could be problematic in Great American Small Park. I think Bieber is a good enough pitcher to weather the lefty-heavy, low-strikeout offense of the Reds, and he’s affordable at just $8,300 at DraftKings, which puts him consideration for both cash games and GPPs.
4. Dylan Bundy has allowed multiple home runs on nine occasions in 2018; that’s tied with Cole Hamels for most such games of any pitcher. And that’s not even counting the three-homer game that was erased from his ledger, when in fewer than two innings of work he allowed home runs to Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and J.D. Martinez before the game was postponed. We can safely say that Bundy has a HR problem. He’s allowed 2.26 HR/9 at home, which is fourth-worst on the Orioles franchise list, just behind Chris Tillman’s 2.33 mark from a year ago. And if DFS has taught me anything about baseball, it’s that you need to be careful about any pitcher whose name is used in a negative context anywhere near the name of Chris Tillman. The rub, though, is that Bundy comes in at just $6,500 at DraftKings. That, coupled with a positive matchup against the Mets (.308 team wOBA ranks 23rd in MLB), means that Bundy could get things done in tournaments. Just be careful.
5. Derek Holland has a 46.0 percent hard-hit rate against righties; that’s fourth-highest among qualified starters. His 90.5 MPH average exit velocity against right-handed hitters this year ranks dead last among the 65 pitchers with at least 200 batted balls against righties. Prior to 2018, his wide splits against opposite-handed hitters had plagued Holland, and while he has raised his strikeouts against righties (26.3%, up from 17.5% in 2017), all this hard contact allowed can only mean that regression is looming. On Wednesday, virtually every Dodgers bat is underpriced at DraftKings (Dozier at $4,300, Machado at $4,200, Turner at $4,200, Kemp at $3,600…the list goes on). Even in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, a full stack of Dodgers righties is high on my list of GPP priorities on Wednesday.
6. Ronald Acuna is on another planet right now. I can’t limit myself to one interesting note about him, so here are three:
— After hitting another two home runs last night, he’s now at eight since August 8th; that’s more home runs than 13 of the 30 teams in MLB have hit over that span.
— In just 67 games in MLB, he’s posted 19 home runs and eight stolen bases, joining Ryan Braun as the ONLY players in MLB history to post that combination in their first 67 career games.
— He’s homered in five consecutive games, making him the first 20-year-old ever to homer in five straight in MLB history; with his last game, he surpassed Miguel Cabrera, who homered in four straight for the Marlins at the age of 20.
From a point-per-dollar standpoint, Acuna is actually a difficult player to roster. After all, Jose Urena has been tough on righties (just a .295 wOBA allowed), he’s priced through the roof at $5,700, and he can’t keep hitting home runs every single game (can he?). If you’ve been riding the wave with Acuna, though, there’s no point in stopping now.
7. Since 2017, only one player in MLB has a hard-hit rate above 44.0 percent and a sub-11.0 percent K rate against righties, and it’s not Mookie Betts, or Jose Ramirez, or Francisco Lindor. It’s Michael Brantley. Brantley is as consistent as they come, and he’s in one of the better matchups of the day against unproven Reds righty Robert Stephenson. His $5,500 price tag means he, like Acuna, is best reserved for tournaments. But given his salary, Brantley (plus the rest of the Indians) should come in at lower-than-deserved ownership. A stack of Brantley, Lindor, Ramirez, and the next man up for discussion…
8. Yonder Alonso, who continues to be reasonably priced at just $4,400 at DraftKings. Alonso has been a serious victim of some bad luck this year. His batting average (.249) is 33 points below is expected batting average (.282), his slugging percentage (.446) is 88 points below his expected slugging (.534), and his wOBA (.326) is 48 points below his expected wOBA (.376). Even better, with Edwin Encarnacion on the shelf, Alonso should be in the cleanup slot behind Lindor, Brantley, and Ramirez, which opens up tons of RBI upside. He’s one of the top first base options on the slate.
9. Another player due for some serious positive regression? Rhys Hoskins, who, even after homering last night, has just two hits over his last 32 at-bats, a slump spanning eight games. During this stretch, his .045 BABIP is the lowest of any eight-game stretch in Hoskins’ MLB career. Take a look:
The slump has caused his price to plummet to $4,300 at DraftKings, making him an excellent bargain in all formats, even in a tough matchup against Nathan Eovaldi.
10. Take a look at Michael Conforto’s average exit velocity by month this year:
March/April – 87.6 MPH
May – 86.5 MPH
June – 88.1 MPH
July – 87.7 MPH
August – 96.5 MPH
Conforto has been making solid contact all month, with a 60.0 percent hard-hit rate that is third-best in MLB. Against the aforementioned home run tendencies of righty Dylan Bundy, and in the second-best home run park for lefties in MLB (Camden Yards’ 111 rating trails only Yankee Stadium’s 114, per FanGraphs), Conforto has a great shot of going yard on Wednesday night. Since he’s on the Mets, he should come in at relatively low ownership, which makes him an excellent tournament one-off if you’re home run hunting (and if you’re playing DFS, you should be home run hunting).
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.