10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 11
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 11.
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Week 11
1. Since 2015, Tom Brady has attempted 40 or more passes on 13 occasions. In those games, he’s posted 300+ yards nine times, thrown for multiple scores 10 times, and exceeded 20 DraftKings points 10 times. Maybe this isn’t surprising, but or interesting, or helpful, but it is a reminder that when the volume is expected to be there for Brady, these are close to the most bankable points you’ll find in NFL DFS. In a game that screams shootout (and that should move at a brisk pace, per Pat Thorman at Pro Football Focus), Brady is the rebound play for anyone who feels spurned by paying down at QB in Week 10. Given that Week 11’s main slate looks weak at the top of the RB and WR positions, this may be the rare week that paying up for the high-floor, high-ceiling combo Brady offers is worth while in cash games.
2. Blake Bortles when leading this year: 67-for-106, 784 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 103.7 rating.
Blake Borltes when leading last year: 68-for-121, 706 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 75.3 rating.
So what does this tell us? Well, for starters, the Jaguars have been winning games a lot more this year than last year (no surprise there). But I think it also tells us that Bortles has been much more effective in his role as game manager this year, not forcing the bad throws that became his hallmark in his first few years in the league. He’s in a pristine matchup in Week 11, facing a Browns defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA and second in run defense DVOA. This means that if they’re able to limit Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville may need to rely on Bortles and Marqise Lee to move the ball. Bortles could emerge as a popular cheap QB option as the week progresses, but in this matchup, he provides a nice floor/ceiling combo given his modest $5,200 price tag at DraftKings.
3. In the past five weeks, Alvin Kamara has four games of a 6.0 yards per carry mark or better on 9+ carries; since 1999 (as far back as Pro Football Reference’s data goes), no rookie back has had more than four such games in an entire rookie season (Ezekiel Elliot, Todd Gurley, Jordan Howard, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Joseph Addai all had four such games during their rookie campaigns). While it’s true that Kamara is in a timeshare with Mark Ingram, his rare explosiveness coupled with his pass-catching ability makes him a sneaky good cash game play even despite his not carrying the full load. Case in point: he’s got seven or more targets in four games this year, which trails only LeSean McCoy (5) and Christian McCaffrey (10) for most such games in the NFL among running backs. While the matchup against Washington (ranked 12th in run defense DVOA) isn’t perfect, Kamara makes for a fine play in both cash games and tournaments this week.
4. The league leader in carries of 15+ yards since Week 5 may surprise you: it’s Orleans Darkwa, with eight such carries. That’s more than Le’Veon Bell or Mark Ingram (six each), more than LeSean McCoy, Kareem Hunt, and Melvin Gordon (five each). Darkwa has quietly emerged as the Giants’ lead back, averaging 15 carries per game over his last four, which is more than workhorse backs like like Kareem Hunt, Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, and Ameer Abdullah. And while he hasn’t had a massive game yet (his season-high is 17 DraftKings points), he’s showing the big play ability to get there if things break right. That could occur in his Week 11 home matchup against Kansas City, who ranks dead last in the NFL in run defense DVOA. Game script doesn’t appear to be in Darkwa’s favor; the Giants are 10.5-point underdogs, and if they fall behind, they’ll likely lean on Shane Vereen in the passing game. But game script isn’t as easy to predict as we often think, and with likely massive ownership on Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, Darkwa is, at the very least, an interesting leverage play if off of the Giants receivers if you’re building multiple lineups.
5. Eight of Tyreek Hill’s top nine career DraftKings point totals have come on the road; he’s only exceeded 15.5 DraftKings points one time at Arrowhead Stadium, while on the road, he’s surpassed that mark eight times. It’s really hard to know how much stock (if any) to put into home/road numbers for a receiver. But Hill is a big-play threat, and the Giants are a team that are in shambles right now, giving up 20 total plays of 20 yards or more over the past four weeks, tied for the most in the NFL. Hill is priced up this week, making him more of a GPP play, but his ownership never seems to get out of control, and that should be especially true with Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt figuring to be popular plays themselves. This could be a blowup spot for Hill.
6. Jarvis Landry has seven targets inside the 10 yard line, third-most in the NFL (behind Dez Bryant and Jimmy Graham). He’s converted five of those into touchdowns. Last year, Landry had two targets inside the 10 over the entire season. Clearly, Landry’s role has shifted this year with Jay Cutler at the helm, and while his low aDOT targets tend to lower his ceiling, his increased red zone usage raises his his already-stable floor at PPR sites like DraftKings. Even better, in Week 11, Landry should see most of his work in the slot against the Bucs, who rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and have given up the third-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers. He’s firmly in play for cash games this week.
7. DeAndre Hopkins has 37 contested targets this year…14 more than second-place Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans (23). He’s only converted 32.4% of these targets into receptions, which ranks last out of the 14 players with at least 15 contested targets this year. This probably won’t change anytime soon with Tom Savage behind center; Savage has completed just 37 of 80 attempts over the past two games, which has contributed to a 61.5 passer rating over that stretch, worst in the NFL. But…it just doesn’t matter, particularly with Will Fuller ruled out. After his 14-target game in Week 10, Hopkins now has 12+ targets on six occasions this year, when nobody else has reached that mark more than three times. For context, we’ve got seven weeks left, and last year’s leaders in 12-target games were Mike Evans and Allen Robinson; they each had six such games over the entire season. Likely shadowed by Patrick Peterson, Hopkins is going to have to grind his way to a successful game, but a player with legitimate 15-target upside at just $6,100 on DraftKings is going to be difficult to pass up.
8. In his last 16 games, Travis Kelce has 92 catches for 1,257 yards and six scores. Here are the tight ends to post those numbers over a full regular season: Rob Gronkowski (2011), Jimmy Graham (2011) and Tony Gonzalez (2004). That’s it. He’s been absolutely dominant, and with the exception of a few clunkers, he’s been consistent, as well: his nine games of 100 yards receiving since 2016 is tied with T.Y. Hilton and Julio Jones for most in the NFL among pass catchers. And maybe you’ve heard: the Giants are bad against the tight end. They’ve allowed a TD to an enemy tight end in 10 straight games, and Kelce has an excellent chance of making it 11 straight. There’s absolutely nothing sneaky about Kelce this week, but that doesn’t make him a bad play, and an overweight approach may be the correct way to handle ownership in tournaments this week.
9. Here are the top four tight ends in yards per route run this year, in descending order:
Zach Ertz – 2.06
Travis Kelce – 2.14
Rob Gronkowski – 2.16
Vernon Davis – 2.45
Sure, Davis’s numbers have come on a slightly smaller sample, but he’s stepping up in a major way in Jordan Reed’s absence. In the past two weeks, his 20 targets leads all tight ends, and with Reed still not practicing, Davis is in line for a major workload once again. As with Hopkins, this is purely a volume play; New Orleans ranks second in DVOA against the tight end position, and the Saints’ elite pass defense as a whole has been one of the more surprising developments of the year. But getting 8-10 targets in a high-scoring game at just $4,600 seems like a steal, especially considering the strength of the tight end position this week should lead to low ownership in tournaments.
10. DeShone Kizer has a 31.6 QB rating when under pressure, worst among 32 starting QBs; Jacksonville’s 10.4% adjusted sack rate leads the NFL, and the 65.9 passer rating allowed by the Jags would be the lowest since the 2013 Seahawks if it were to hold through the season. Jacksonville is the most expensive defense on this week’s main slate at $4,000, but given the lack of must-have plays at the high end of pricing in Week 11, it shouldn’t be too difficult to lock in a defense that is almost guaranteed to earn multiple sacks and cause a few turnovers.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!