10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 17

This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 17.

Click here to follow Josh Cole on Twitter.

Week 17

Article Image

1. After gaining 52 yards with his feet last week against the Bucs, Cam Newton now has four consecutive games of 50+ rushing yards; that’s a feat that has been achieved just five other times since the year 2000 (Tyrod Taylor in 2015, Michael Vick on four occasions). Newton’s rushing attempts look more like a running back’s, with 14, 14, and 11 over the past three weeks, and five games of 11 carries on the year (tied with RGIII in 2012 for second-most all-time; only Bobby Douglass, with eight such games in 1972, has more in a season). Unlike most of Sunday’s offerings, the game between the Panthers and Falcons has playoff implications for both teams, making it a desirable spot to allocate funds. The 16.6 DraftKings points Newton put up last week is probably close to his floor if we assume he’ll near double-digits in rushing attempts, and despite the so-so effort last week, he should be the chalk at QB once again in Week 17.

2. Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo posted a 102.4 passer rating against the Jaguars; prior to that outing, the Jags had allowed an average of 65.2 passer rating to enemy QBs, lowest since the 2013 Seahawks (63.4), and no QB had posted a passer rating better than 86.2. Obviously, the NFL is a fickle league, and this doesn’t guarantee anything in lesser matchups, but if there was any doubt Garoppolo belongs in the upper tier at QB, those doubts have been eliminated. This week, he’s in what would be a tough matchup – the Rams rank third in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. However, with Rams head coach Sean McVay openly pledging to rest his starters, it’s likely that Garoppolo faces a watered-down LA defense. He makes for an excellent tournament play in Week 16.

3. With just two catches on Sunday, both Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, currently with 75 catches apiece, will pass Herschel Walker (1986) for third-most receptions all-time by a rookie running back. While it’s unlikely either McCaffrey or Kamara manage to pass Earl Cooper (1980) for second-most on the list (83), and while it’s a near impossibility that either back can beat Reggie Bush’s 2006 rookie record with 88 catches, both find themselves in elite spots in Week 17. McCaffrey takes on a Falcons team who allow an NFL-high 6.47 receptions per game to RBs. Making McCaffrey an even better play is the fact that Carolina’s already-thin receiving corps is dinged up, with Damiere Byrd recently placed on IR and Devin Funchess and Russell Shepard practicing on a limited basis at time of writing. As for Kamara, he’ll take on a Bucs team defense that is a sieve through the air, ranking dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (262.5). Kamara is sure to be involved in the passing game as the Saints attempt to lock up the NFC South title with a win. With no Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell resting, Kamara is one of the top spend-up options at the running back position.

Article Image

4. Since trading Marcell Dareus before Week 8, the Bills have allowed 49 runs of 10+ yards, most in the NFL…and 10 more than the second-place Dolphins. For some context, 25 of 32 NFL teams have allowed 49 or fewer 10-yard runs over the entire season. In particular, Buffalo has been gashed gashed by two-way backs recently, like Dion Lewis in Week 16 (129 rushing yards and a TD, 24 receiving yards and a TD), Kenyan Drake in Week 15 (78 rushing yards and a TD, 35 receiving yards), and Rex Burkhead in Week 13 (78 rushing yards and 2 TDs, 25 receiving yards). In Week 17, Drake is lucky enough to face the Bills one more time. Luckily for fantasy owners, Drake’s disappointing Week 16 performance actually kept his price in check for this elite matchup. He’s $7,200, which is reasonable given the relative certainty of his workload in an unpredictable Week 17.

5. In five games without Vontaze Burfict this season, the Bengals have been awful against the run, allowed an average of 131.7 rushing yards per game; for context, over the entire season, only the Chargers allowing more (132.9 per game). As of Thursday morning, Burfict had yet to practice this week and looks unlikely to play. While Alex Collins has scuffled over the past two weeks with just 70 rushing yards on 30 carries in a few winnable matchups against the Browns and Colts, Baltimore continues feeding him the ball, with 18 carries last week and 12+ carries every week since Week 8. While he’s unlikely to be involved in the passing game with Javorius Allen and Danny Woodhead in the mix, Collins has 24 carries inside the 20 during since Week 8, tied for fourth-most in the NFL behind only Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray, and Todd Gurley. At just $5,600 at DraftKings, he’s an excellent play in the mid-range at RB.

6. Only one running back this season has posted six catches and 40+ receiving yards in three consecutive games. If you’re guessing it’s Todd Gurley, or Le’Veon Bell, or Alvin Kamara, you’d be wrong. If you’re guessing it’s Melvin Gordon, or Christian McCaffrey, or LeSean McCoy wrong. If you’re guessing it’s Wayne Gallman, you’re right, and probably a genius. Gallman has quietly found a steady role in the Giants’ backfield over the past three weeks (not to mention averaging 10 carries per game over this stretch), and it’s translating to solid (if not spectacular) fantasy production: his DraftKings point totals of 16.9, 13.9, and 12.2 represent three of his top five fantasy games of the season. The Giants have absolutely nothing to play for, so it’s conceivable that Gallman sees heavy usage this week as the Giants get one last glimpse at him before the end of his rookie season. At just $4,200, he’s very intriguing for tournaments this week.

7. Speaking of inexpensive, unexciting Giants who’ve quietly seen an uptick in usage, consider this: Roger Lewis is the only receiver in the NFL with games of 10+ targets in each of his last three weeks. Like Gallman’s, Lewis’s usage increase hasn’t exactly translated to any massive games, with DraftKings totals of 11.6, 11.4, and 8 during this stretch. But with Sterling Shephard and Evan Engram possibly out, Lewis is a decent bet to reach 8-10 targets again, and that’s a great value at just $3,600, even if those targets come from Eli Manning.

Article Image

8. Per AirYards.com, no team funnels a higher percentage of fantasy points to wide receivers than the Panthers, at 46.0%. In a must-win game for Atlanta, Julio Jones figures to be shadowed by James Bradberry, which gives him the top matchup advantage of the week among wide receivers, per Pro Football Focus’s WR/CB chart. Bradberry has been generous to opposing receivers, allowing the second-most yards (783) and tied for the sixth-most receptions (56) when in coverage. While Julio has had fewer “Julio Games” than last year (just five games of 20+ DraftKings points this year, compared to 9, 10, and 8 in the previous three years), it’s tough to envision Atlanta not giving him 10+ targets given that their playoff hopes hinge on this game. He’s one of the top overall plays of the week.

9. JuJu Smith-Schuster has seven games of 6+ targets; that’s the most ever for a Steelers rookie WR, which is impressive given the litany of talented rookie wideouts Pittsburgh has boasted over the years (Plaxico Burress, Antonio Brown, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, etc. etc. etc.). Smith-Schuster has quickly developed a rapport with Ben Roethlisberger, and with Antonio Brown out, he could have a huge game against the Browns, who rank 29th in pass defense DVOA. There’s obvious risk in rostering Steelers when it’s likely they take a lead, which could lead to starters leaving the game early. Plus…he’s priced at $7,300, which I had to re-check about three times before my eyes properly adjusted. Still, JuJu has been electric in Antonio Brown’s absence, ranking as PFF’s top-rated receiver over the past two weeks (tied with Tyreek Hill). Given the above factors, ownership should be minuscule, which makes him an intriguing GPP play in a week that is inherently unpredictable.

10. Since 2014, T.Y. Hilton has three games of 29.5 DraftKings points against the Texans; the rest of the wide receivers in the NFL have combined for six such games during that span. This feels like another potential blowup spot for Hilton. He’s at home, where he’s averaged 2.6 more DraftKings points per game since the start of last season, and he’s facing a Houston team that has been eaten alive by receivers in recent weeks, like JuJu Smith-Schuster (6/75/1 in Week 16), Keelan Cole (7/186/1 in Week 15), Marquise Goodwin (6/106 in Week 14), and Hilton himself, whose 5/175/2 line in Week 9 yielded a season-high 37.5 DraftKings points. His price tag ($5,900) is more than reasonable, making him a fine play in all formats.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.