10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 4
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 4.
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Week 4
1. In his first three games as an NFL quarterback, Deshaun Watson has racked up 124 yards on the ground; in NFL history, only Robert Griffin (198 yards in 2012) has had more in his first three games as a pro. Watson (along with fellow rookie DeShone Kizer) has been the embodiment of the truism that “you don’t have to be a good real life QB to be a good DFS QB” – in fact, in terms of DraftKings points, he’s outscored Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton so far this year. Last week against the Patriots, though, Watson showed tremendous growth, eclipsing the 300-yard mark while throwing for two scores in addition to rushing for 41 yards (which feels like it’s going to happen more weeks than not). If Watson can stay on his feet against the Titans in Week 4 – not a guarantee given Houston ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency (62.5), per PFF – he should be able to do some damage. Working in his favor is the fact that the Titans, just last week, allowed Russell Wilson (who, like Watson, takes snaps behind a pass-blocking-challenged line) to post a monster 373-yard, four-touchdown game. Particularly at DraftKings, where pricing remains tight, Watson makes a lot of sense for tournaments and, if you can stomach it, he’s viable in cash games, as well.
2. Tom Brady’s 1,092 yards through Weeks 1-3 leads the NFL, and his 121.5 passer rating ranks second. Here is the complete list of QBs in NFL history who have put up those marks through the first three games: Peyton Manning, in 2013. That’s it. The Patriots/Panthers game is an early shootout candidate, as the Patriots offense has been scoring at will while their defense ranks dead last in yardage (992) and touchdowns (8) allowed to opposing QBs. The game’s over/under has risen to 49 points. While Brady’s price tag is prohibitive for cash games, you’re almost required to have some Brady stacks if building multiple lineups.
3. Speaking of the Patriots, after allowing 65 receiving yards to the Texans’ D’Onta Foreman in Week 3, they’ve now allowed 40+ receiving yards to an opposing running back in each of their last five games, including last year’s playoffs. New England is also allowing an average of 84.3 receiving yards per game to running backs, second-most in the NFL, trailing only the Saints.This sets up perfectly for the Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey, who saw his target number shoot up to 11 last week in the first game in tight end Greg Olsen absence. McCaffrey has the 11th-highest snap share in the NFL among running backs and ranks ahead of guys like Dalvin Cook, Melvin Gordon, and Devonta Freeman. If the game does become a back-and-forth affair, McCaffrey should see massive volume in the passing game, as the Panthers are so short on offensive weapons that they basically don’t have a choice. Additionally, with so many mid-tier running backs in excellent spots, McCaffrey’s ownership should reasonably low that he’s an excellent tournament play.
4. One of those mid-tier running backs in an excellent spot is Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon. Why? Since 2016, 10 running backs have exceeded 20 touches against the Browns; these 10 backs have averaged 111.8 yards from scrimmage, 1.2 touchdowns, and 21.9 DraftKings points per game against Cleveland. Only one of those 10 backs failed to reach the end zone at least once. While Mixon is not exactly a lock for 20 touches, he saw increased volume last week in the Bengals’ first game with Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator. In that game, he was on the field for 34 of the team’s 71 snaps (after just 38 snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 combined), and his 18 carries far exceeded the combined 10 carries of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Pairing Mixon with the Cincinnati defense feels like a sharp correlation play given Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer propensity for turnovers (7 interceptions, while no other QB has thrown more than four).
5. In NFL history, only four running backs have recorded 57 carries and 12 targets in their first three career NFL games. Two of them (Edgerrin James in 1999, Matt Forte in 2008) are of no consequence to DFS in 2017 (sorry, Forte – it’s not you, it’s your team). But the other two backs on that list are. Leonard Fournette (57 carries, 12 targets) is the first. Fournette has seen massive volume in Jacksonville’s new “Hide Blake Bortles offensive philosophy, and he’s been the focal point of Jacksonville’s offense near the goal line; his six carries inside the five are third-most in the NFL, and he’s scored on three of those carries. There’s no reason to think the Jaguars will lighten Fournette’s load in a Week 4 matchup with the Jets. Last week, the argument behind Jay Ajayi as a cash game went something like this: the Dolphins will get ahead, they’ll rely on Ajayi to run down the clock, and Ajayi will score all the points. While that didn’t work out, Jacksonville’s elite pass defense (ranked first in DVOA this year) should prevent the Jets from getting out to an early lead, as the Dolphins did. Priced in the mid-range, Fournette is one of the elite plays of the week.
6. So, Fournette was the third back on the list mentioned in note 5. The fourth? It’s Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook (61 carries, 13 targets). Like Fournette, Cook is getting a ton of work in Minnesota’s suddenly high-octane offense. He’s a talented runner, with an 87.4 run grade at Pro Football Focus, which ranks second in the NFL trailing only Kareem Hunt. He’s also forced 17 missed tackles, which is also second-best in the NFL behind only (guess who) Kareem Hunt. Given his role in Minnesota’s offense, Cook is underpriced across the industry, and he’s one of the slew of mid-priced running backs who make sense in all formats in Week 4. (Oh, and Kareem Hunt is also a good play, because he might be Barry Sanders).
7. Since December 4th of last year, LeSean McCoy has six games of 5+ receptions; no other running back has more than three such games during that span. In the absence of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, McCoy is increasingly becoming a part of the Bills passing attack this season. In Week 4, he has a dream matchup against a Falcons team that continues to get shredded by running backs in the pass-catching game (they allowed a combined 77 yards to Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah last week). McCoy’s price tag may keep him lower owned than he should be, so as always, it’s worth monitoring Chris Gimino’s ownership projections as the week moves along.
8. The Baltimore Ravens have a seven-game streak of allowing one or fewer passing touchdowns at home; that’s the longest active streak in the NFL. Going back further, in their last 13 games at home, only two QBs (Derek Carr in 2016, Russell Wilson in 2015) have thrown for more than one touchdown, and no QBs have exceeded 300 yards passing over that stretch. It’s difficult to trust any part of the Steelers passing attack against a Ravens team that has been so successful against the pass on their home field.
9. Games of eight or more receptions in their first 64 career games:
Jason Witten – 6
Tony Gonzalez – 8
Rob Gronkowski – 9
Zach Ertz – 10
After catching eight passes for 93 yards against the Redskins in Week 3, Ertz is tied with Antonio Gates for third-most games of 8+ catches in NFL history among tight ends, trailing only Jordan Reed (12) and Jimmy Graham (11). Ertz has been automatic this season, and with Darren Sproles sidelined and the Eagles receivers likely blanketed by the combination of Casey With Darren Sproles out, with Alshon Jeffery in a negative matchup against Trevor Williams and/or Casey Heyward, targets should continue to be funneled towards Ertz. While Ertz’s price is elevated across the industry, DraftKings’ tendency to underprice the tight end position still leaves him as a solid value at $6,300.
10. On a per-snap basis, no slot corner has been targeted more frequently than San Francisco’s K’Waun Williams (3.4 coverage snaps per target); no player has received more than Larry Fitzgerald’s 25 catches in the slot. Fitzgerald’s 34 overall targets in Weeks 1-3 ties his career high from 2010, and with David Johnson out and John Brown status uncertain, Fitzgerald continues to be the primary target in Arizona’s passing game. Fitzgerald should be the heavy chalk after finally delivering in Week 3 with a 13-catch, 149-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Cowboys. Arizona’s offensive line has been a disaster, with a league-high 61 pressures allowed. That’s not exactly a good thing, but it should force Palmer to look to Fitzgerald in the short passing game, which could be a boon to the veteran receiving in an ideal matchup against Williams, Pro Football Focus’s 94th-graded cornerback of 109 qualifiers.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!