10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 7

Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 7.

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1. In 2016, Matt Ryan has three games of 335+ yards and three or more passing touchdowns. That’s in six games. In 2008-2015, Matt Ryan had four games of 335+ yards and three or more passing touchdowns…in 126 games. And here’s the kicker – at 35 pass attempts per game, Matt Ryan is having games like that while averaging his _fewest pass attempts per game since 2009. It took him just 34, 37, and 42 pass attempts to reach his three 335-yard, three-touchdown games this season. Now he’s in a high-total game at home against a Chargers team that has given up the seventh-most yardage in the NFL through the air, and the game has the highest total of the week. It’s not Drew Brees versus the Panthers in Week 6 in terms of safety, but Ryan’s matchup in Week 7 is solid enough that it’s hard to envision a letdown.

2. The Falcons and Chargers have given up a combined 839 yards through the air to RBs. They’ve given up the most (Atlanta, 423) and second-most (San Diego, 416) receiving yards to opposing running backs. This game has all the makings of a shootout, which means that all the pass-catching backs involved (Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Melvin Gordon) have serious upside, particularly at PPR sites like DraftKings.

3. Quarterbacks against the Browns are on pace for 4,725 yards and 42 touchdowns. For some perspective, those numbers have been reached over a full season by four quarterbacks in NFL history: Tom Brady (2007), Drew Brees (2011, 2012), Peyton Manning (2013), and Dan Marino (1984, 1986). So, Andy Dalton is firmly in play, particularly on DraftKings where he’s priced way too low at $6,000. Cleveland has allowed three-touchdown games to four straight quarterbacks – and that includes Ryan Tannehill, who’s only reached three touchdowns nine times in 70 career games. While Dalton is unlikely to be in a GPP-winning lineup (he has just one multi-TD game this year), he’s a fine cash play who will allow you to splurge on some of the high-floor, high-ceiling players at other positions. Players like…

4. Mike Evans, who has 332 targets in his first 35 games as a pro. Among wide receivers in their first 35 games, that’s the second-highest total since Pro Football Reference began tracking targets in 1992 (only Odell Beckham, Jr. has more, with 349 targets). Tampa Bay is now without Doug Martin, Charles Sims, and Vincent Jackson, and the pace in this game sets up perfectly for the Bucs to put up points; Tampa Bay runs an average of 70.6 plays per game (second-most in NFL) and their Week 7 opponent, San Francisco, allows opponents to run 69.5 plays per game (third-most in NFL), which means a lot of plays for Tampa Bay, which means a lot of targets for Evans, which means (let’s be honest) probably a few drops, but which also means massive fantasy upside.

5. Opponents have rushed 30 or more times against the 49ers in five straight games – that’s the longest active streak in the NFL. How have Niners opponents fared in those five games? 981 rushing yards. Five touchdowns. 5.2 yards per carry. So they’ve fared well, in other words. And while it’s not always a great idea to pair a running back and receiver from the same team (as it cuts down on touchdown upside), Jacquizz Rodgers is priced so cheaply across the industry ($4,300 at DraftKings, $5,600 at FanDuel) that he’s fine to pair with Mike Evans, even in cash games.

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6. Since Tom Brady’s return in Week 5, Rob Gronkowski has 271 receiving yards…more than the combined season-long yardage totals for all tight ends on the Cardinals, Broncos, Lions, Packers, Dolphins, Vikings, Saints, Giants, Jets, Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Rams, 49ers, Bucs – that’s 15 teams. They face a Steelers team that ranks ninth in DVOA against the tight end, but it just doesn’t matter. Brady to Gronk is one of the high-end stacks that could win a tournament.

7. That is, unless the Patriots’ Week 7 matchup against the Big Ben-less Steelers becomes a “Blount Game.” Since 2015, LeGarrette Blount has seven touchdowns in the second half when his team is up at least 10 – the next-highest players (David Johnson and DeAngelo Williams) are tied with seven. If you think the Patriots will get up big on Sunday (and if you don’t, I’d like to introduce you to their new QB), Blount should be on your radar.

8. The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 40+ receiving yards to five different running backs this season (Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, Jordan Howard). No other team has allowed 40+ yards to a running back more than three times. That plays into DeMarco Murray’s strengths, as Murray is averaging four receptions per game this year, tied for fifth-most in the NFL among running backs. But that’s just a bonus; the Colts rank dead last in rush DVOA this year, which means Murray should be able to pile up yardage on the ground, as well. He’s the premier play at running back in Week 7.

9. Hunter Henry is the first tight end in NFL history to record 300+ yards and three or more touchdowns in his first six games as a pro. He’s seen a decrease in snaps since Antonio Gates has returned, going from 60 and 68 in Weeks 3 and 4 to 48 and 45 in Weeks 5 and 6. Still, he’s made the most of his opportunity, catching 90 percent of passes thrown his way in the past two weeks. Atlanta is allowing 74.5 yards per game to tight ends, second-most in the NFL, and they’ve also allowed five TDs to tight ends. In what should be a high-scoring game, Henry is, once again, a worthy value option at TE.

10. After a 129-yard effort last week against the Chiefs, Amari Cooper now has eight 100-yard games in his first 22 NFL games, which is second among WRs in their first 22 games (only Odell Beckham, Jr. has more, with 12). That’s the good news. The bad news is that it was the fourth time in his NFL career that he’s reached 100 yards and failed to reach the end zone – that’s more than any other wide receiver in his first 22 games in NFL history. Sooner or later, the touchdown variance will lean in Cooper’s favor. It could happen in Week 7, as Derek Carr has been forcing the ball to him as of late (25 targets in the past two weeks). Even in a tough matchup (the Jaguars rank ninth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA), Cooper is in play in both cash games and tournaments.

“10 Notes” Trivia Contest

Shoutout to @ssilberman212 for correctly identifying Torry Holt as the answer to last week’s trivia question! Send me a DM on RotoGrinders or at Twitter, and we’ll get your soft, luxurious deck of RotoGrinders playing cards in the mail to you.

On to the Week 7 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize. One new stip: if you’ve won before, don’t leave any guesses (there are plenty of decks of RG playing cards to go around!). Instead, leave a comment with your favorite obscure football player, like Joe Jurevicius, or Nate Newton. On to the question:

In Note #10 above, I mentioned that Amari Cooper has been really good at reaching 100 yards receiving and not so good at getting into the end zone. Which TWO wide receivers have the most career games of 100+ yards and zero touchdowns?

Thanks for reading, and good luck this week, guys!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.