10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 12
It’s the week of Thanksgiving, which means it’s a week of food, family, a few days off of school, and of course, the awful, awful tradition of beginning our family’s Thanksgiving meal by saying what we’re thankful for.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who’s had to endure this tradition, but I can say with certainty that I dislike it more than anyone else on the planet. It’s not that I don’t have anything to be thankful for. I’ve got a lovely wife, two lovely kids, two lovely jobs, and the Cubs just won the World Series. But it’s just not my thing. In my mind, it becomes a game of one-upsmanship; if one of my relatives says how he’s thankful for the miracle of raising children, and how it’s funny, but you think you’re teaching them about the world when really they’re teaching you, and on and on and on…well, it’s hard to follow that. Last year, legitimate tears were flowing around the room before it was my turn to say what I was thankful for. I think I’d just prefer the feats of strength.
(And if you’re thinking, “What a cheap ploy to draw more attention to GiantBallofOil’s #SeinfeldBracket, it is. And so was that link.)
On the other hand, as I started thinking about his year’s “What are you thankful for?” rigamarole, I thought it might be a fun (read: less cringe-worthy) way to start this week’s “10 Notes: Sneak Peek” article. So here we go:
1. I’m thankful that, at the midnight hour, I pivoted back over from DeMarco Murray to Le’Veon Bell in all my cash games. I had Bell in all week, then, in my usual Sunday morning tinkering that never works out, worked my way down to Murray, thinking Cleveland might stack the box given the heavy winds. Then, I remembered that it’s Cleveland and went back to my original lineup, with Bell. Close call.
2. I’m thankful that RotoGrinders runs awesome promos, like this week’s Lineup Builder Freeroll, which allowed me to see 150 little blips on my phone and feel like I could afford to actually mass multi-enter.
3. I’m thankful for single-entry and three-entry-max GPPs. I’ve had so much more success with them than I ever had when I strictly entered giant multi-entry tournaments. The sites are getting it right by continuing to offer more of these types of contests, and it boggles my mind that people still use the, “You don’t stand a chance unless you can enter hundreds of lineups” argument against DFS.
4. I’m thankful for Thanksgiving football, especially 2016 Thanksgiving football, especially playing DFS for 2016 Thanksgiving football. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Le’Veon Bell, Stefon Diggs, and T.Y. Hilton are all in near-perfect matchups. It’s gonna be a lot of fun.
5. Black Mirror on Netflix. It’s got nothing to do with DFS, but I just finished watching Season 3, and I think it’s cracked my top five. If you haven’t watched it, skip the Vikings/Lions game on Thursday and watch “Nosedive.”
Okay, on to football.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping 10 noteworthy happenings from Week 11.
1. If you missed cashing by a few points this week, well…you weren’t alone. Kickers whiffed on an NFL-record 11 extra points in Week 11, giving more credence to the idea that the kicker slot is absolutely, positively unnecessary for DFS (can we please get rid of it already, DraftDuel, or FanKings, or FanDraftKingsDuel?). You can watch all 11 kicker misses here. Or, you can watch paint drying here.
2. The injury bug bit, and it bit hard. A.J. Green (hamstring), LeSean McCoy (thumb), and C.J. Prosise (scapula) are few highly owned players who left with injuries. Darren Sproles (ribs), Ryan Mathews (knee), Robert Woods (knee) also all went down and didn’t return. Giovani Bernard tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. Zach Miller broke his foot and will miss the remainder of the regular season.
3. Just days after surprising everyone and trading Christine Michael, the Seahawks used up all the running backs on their roster, even giving QB Trevone Boykin a carry. I don’t mean to sound callous, but after the way Pete Carroll has made a living out of lying about the health of his players, am I the only one who thought, “Karma”?
4. Le’Veon Bell had over 200 yards of offense and a score. He was targeted nine times (eight of which he caught), and he led all running backs in Week 11 with 146 yards on the ground. He’s never not going to be expensive, but you’re getting a running back and wide receiver for the price of one. Which is never a bad thing, right?.
5. Eric Ebron rushed for a touchdown. Doug Baldwin threw a touchdown. Russell Wilson caught a touchdown. Martellus Bennett (the mega-chalk at TE in the absence of Rob Gronkowski) scored no touchdowns, despite Tom Brady throwing four for four scores for the 26th time in his career.
6. Zeke Elliott keeps jumping over dudes. He also broke Tony Dorsett’s Cowboys rushing record (1,077 yards, set in 1977) when he rushed for 97 yards on 25 carries. Perhaps just as interesting for DFS players, though, is the fact that he caught four of five targets for 30 receiving yards.
7. Dak Prescott did it again. After receiving Romo’s blessing Prescott threw for 301 yards and three touchdowns, giving him 17 TDs against just 2 interceptions on the year. As if he’s not a big enough star as it is, his next game will be on Thanksgiving day in front of a national audience.
8. One week after throwing two interceptions in a two-minute span, Jay Cutler out-Cutlered himself. Rather than leading the Bears on a game-winning drive inside the two-minute warning, the Bears QB decided to fumble the ball and throw an interception on consecutive plays. The Bears have had a lot of bad quarterbacks (Caleb Hanie, Cade McNown, Craig Krenzel, Chad Hutchinson…), but Cutler is bad in a special kind of way. Hey, I just thought of a new game; it’s called “Name a Bad Bears QB in the Comments Section.” Odds are, whoever you name, Jay Cutler will be worse.
9. David Johnson once again showed that he’s matchup proof, accruing 160 total yards and two scores against the Vikings’ fourth-ranked (DVOA) defense.
10. “Fat” Rob Kelley rushed 24 times for 137 yards and three scores. For anyone still holding onto the “Packers are a great run defense” narrative…it’s time to let go. They’ve now allowed 320 rushing yards and five touchdowns to Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, and Kelley over the past three games.
Snap Judgments for Week 12
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 12, using DraftKings pricing. Typically, I only include players from DraftKings’ main slate. With this week’s three-game Thanksgiving Day slate, I chose to include a few plays for that slate, as well.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS) — $6,300 — After this week, it’s going to be tough to justify spending up on Luck ($7,500) or Road Roethlisberger ($7,300), even though they’re both in arguably better matchups. $6,300 still seems like a bargain, and pairing Dak with a few moderately priced receivers (Jamison Crowder at $5,800, DeSean Jackson at $4,800) might free up enough room to pay up for the two top running backs…
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (at IND) — $9,000 — Don’t be fooled by their limiting DeMarco Murray to 70 rushing yards on 24 carries in Week 11; the Colts have the worst run-stopping unit in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. This game opened with a huge over/under of 53 points, and there’s no way Bell won’t be heavily involved. It didn’t seem it was possible for him to be chalkier than he was in Week 11, but here we are.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS) — $8,500 — Fitting in both Le’Veon and Zeke on Thanksgiving Day seems like priority number one. Washington’s run defense is nearly as bad as Indy’s (ranked 30th in DVOA), and Elliott’s recent involvement in the passing game raises his floor, which didn’t seem possible even as early as a few weeks ago. Price doesn’t matter with these two backs; it feels like you’ve just got to fit them in.
Eli Manning, New York Giants (at CLE) — $6,500 — It’s a little difficult to know this early which QB will wind up being most popular, but Manning is interesting at this price point against a Browns secondary that gives up a ton of passing TDs, Week 11 notwithstanding.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (at ATL) — $8,900 — We saw what David Johnson is capable of in a difficult matchup in Week 11. In Week 12, he faces a Falcons team that not only struggles to stop the run (ranking 26th in rush defense DVOA), but that allows more receptions (8.10) and receiving yards (63.40) to running backs than any team in the NFL. The game opened with a 51-point over/under, and I’m not sure it even matters that Atlanta is favored by four; Johnson saw 10 targets in Week 11, more than any other RB.
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins (vs. SF) — $7,600 — Ajayi has been underowned for the past few weeks after finding himself in some less-than-perfect matchups. In Week 12, he’s in a perfect matchup. The 49ers just made LeGarrette Blount look like Barry Sanders, averaging 6.5 yards per carry (the second-highest mark of his career in games with at least 19 carries). He’s averaging a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry since his first 200-yard breakout game in Week 6 against Pittsburgh. For perspective, among backs with at least 80 carries during that time frame, Ezekiel Elliott has the next-highest mark at 4.9 yards per carry. The Dolphins are favored by 7.5 at home, meaning that once they get ahead, they’ll keep feeding it to Ajayi, and he’ll keep breaking tackles (3.6 yards after contact, best in the NFL among RBs with 100+ carries).
Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks (at TB) — $5,700 — With C.J. Prosise going down, it looks like it’s going to be up to Rawls to keep the Seahawks ground game going. He was effective in his return, carrying the ball 14 times for 51 yards while catching three of four targets for 31 yards receiving. His price has yet to reflect the fact that he’s a full-time back, and Tampa Bay’s run defense is more bark than bite; despite its reputation as being elite, the Bucs run defense is ranked 16th in DVOA at Football Outsiders. It can’t be all Russell Wilson, and even if Rawls doesn’t surpass the 17 touches he got in Week 11, he’s got a chance to reach value at this price.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (at TB) — $6,400 — Baldwin is another Seahawks player whose price is yet to reflect his team’s recent surge in productivity. Yes, it’s up $700 from Week 11, and yes, he only got five targets in Week 11. But he still tied for the team lead in targets, and it’s a safe bet that, on the road against the fast-paced Bucs, Wilson will throw the ball more than the 29 times he did in Week 11. In order to fit in David Johnson and/or Jay Ajayi, finding the right mid-tier receivers will be paramount in Week 12, and I think Baldwin is one of the best options in this price range.
Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans (at CHI) — $5,800 — Thirteen of Marcus Mariota’s 38 pass attempts in Week 11 went in Matthews’ direction; no other Titans player garnered more than six. If he’s going to get that much volume against a Bears defense that has allowed the second-most receptions (145) to WRs of any team in the NFL, he’s in play. Matthews might not have the track record to wind up being the chalk, but in a week where it seems like paying up at RB will be optimal, Matthews provides targets and touchdown upside at a cheap price.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants (at CLE) — $5,500 — As with Matthews, I’ll be interested to see how popular Shepard becomes. He’s got TDs in the last three games, and (Week 11 notwithstanding), the Browns allow a ton of touchdowns through the air (25 on the season). There’s no doubt that Odell Beckham, Jr. will be more popular (and rightfully so), but $5,500 seems like a bargain for Shepard given the enticing matchup against the Browns.