Sign In Get the App $ $

2023 Tampa Bay Rays Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-26 23:16:56

Article Image

Nick Galaida is here to break down the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

Since the beginning of 2018, the Tampa Bay Rays are 412-296 – good for a 94-win pace across a span of five seasons. Last year, the Rays had their lowest winning percentage since 2017, playing the majority of the season without a healthy Tyler Glasnow, Brandon Lowe, and Wander Franco.

This past offseason, the Rays signed Zach Eflin to a three-year, $40 million deal, making him the second-highest-paid player on the roster. The organization has preached a much different approach at the plate during spring training, emphasizing good swing decisions rather than continuing last year’s focus on optimal launch angle.

Kevin Cash and the Rays have been the most prepared team in the league on a yearly basis for over a decade, being the first team to take advantage of defensive shifts, the first organization to use an opener instead of a traditional starting pitcher, and so on. In a campaign that features multiple significant rule changes, including bigger bases and a pitch clock – does anyone think there will be a team more ready for these challenges than Tampa Bay?

Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Christian Bethancourt

Christian Bethancourt played a career-high 101 games in 2022, hitting 11 home runs and batting .252. Despite the fact that he ranked in the 92nd percentile in maximum exit velocity and showed impressive pop at the plate, concerns persist regarding his overall approach in the batter’s box. Among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, only six players had a lower walk rate than Bethancourt.

Nevertheless, Bethancourt had the third-quickest pop time of any catcher in the league last year (minimum six attempts) and he threw out 43% of would-be base stealers. He is a competent framer of pitches, making him a valuable asset for the Rays heading into 2023. He is unlikely to win any individual accolades, but he is one of the more underrated backstops in baseball.

First Base, Yandy Diaz

In 2022, Yandy Diaz walked more than he struck out for the second time in three seasons. His 14.0% walk rate ranked eighth among all batters who had at least 300 plate appearances. Despite his resistance to hitting the ball in the air, Diaz was solidly above league average in production at the plate – finishing the campaign with the 10th-best wRC+ in the entire league. His 146 wRC+ was better than many household names, including Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Shohei Ohtani, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, and Jose Ramirez. Only Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Yordan Alvarez, and Paul Goldschmidt had a higher on-base percentage than Diaz.

Defensively, Diaz leaves much to be desired, but he is likely to see more playing time at first base in 2023, which should minimize the negative impact of this issue. Tampa Bay will surely tolerate a few defensive blunders from a player who had 42 extra-base hits last season and has an elite approach at the plate.

Second Base, Brandon Lowe

Two years ago, the Rays won 100 games with Brandon Lowe as their top offensive threat – hitting 39 home runs and driving in 99 runs. Last season, Lowe dealt with back issues from the very beginning of the season, limiting him to 65 games. Despite his bad back, Lowe walked in over 10 percent of his plate appearances, showcasing a strong approach at the plate. His plate discipline remained constant year-over-year, but his contact rate regressed, suggesting that physical ailments rather than true decline were the culprit for a poor 2022 output. Assuming Lowe is healthy, he is one of the best second basemen in the league. Lowe is likely to be a major asset for the Rays this summer, making him a worthwhile grab in season-long fantasy and DFS.

Third Base, Isaac Paredes

Last April, the Rays traded away Austin Meadows in exchange for Isaac Paredes and a competitive balance round B pick in last summer’s amateur draft. Prior to that trade, Paredes had played a total of 57 MLB games, hitting two home runs and posting a .215 batting average. In his first season with Tampa Bay, Paredes hit 20 home runs in 111 games played while shining defensively at third base.

Paredes’ 20th percentile average exit velocity and 43rd percentile HardHit% do not portend a breakout campaign beyond what we saw in 2022. Yet, that won’t be a problem if he can replicate his 88th percentile walk rate and excellent swing decisions at the plate.

Shortstop, Wander Franco

Following the 2021 season, Wander Franco and the Rays agreed to a 11-year, $182 million contract extension, which was the largest deal ever for a player with less than one year of service time, per Adam Berry.

In 2022, Franco was limited to 83 games played due to a myriad of injuries that led to multiple trips to the injured list. Still, in the limited time that he was on the field, he showcased many of the reasons that the financially-challenged Rays were willing to commit more than a decade of time to the young star. He finished the year ranked in the 98th percentile in Whiff% and 96th percentile in xBA. Among players with at least 300 plate appearances, he ranked fifth in contact percentage on pitches inside of the strike zone and had the third-best strikeout percentage.

After returning from a hamate injury in mid-September, Franco posted a .322 batting average and an .853 OPS across 97 plate appearances, walking more times than he struck out. He is an elite player, who is only likely to get better. Winning the MVP in the era of Shohei Ohtani is an uphill battle, but Franco is indisputably one of the most talented players in the American League.

Outfield, Randy Arozarena

According to Baseball Prospectus, Randy Arozarena is one of only three players in Major League Baseball to have at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in each of the last two seasons. The other two players are bonafide MVP candidates – Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez. Arozarena was the only member of this small group to have at least 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 2022.

Following an impressive showing in the World Baseball Classic, Arozarena is poised for another underappreciated campaign outside of the national spotlight in Tampa Bay. Though he regressed in chase rate and took fewer walks last season compared to 2021, his performance in the Classic is enough evidence to prove that Arozarena is more than capable of bouncing back at the dish in 2023. He still ranked in the 67th percentile in average exit velocity and the 87th percentile in sprint speed. Expect him to be plenty productive once again for the Rays again this summer.

Outfield, Jose Siri

Last year, the Rays acquired Jose Siri at the trade deadline, looking to improve their defense and baserunning. After joining Tampa Bay at the beginning of August, Siri continued to struggle at the plate, with a .292 on-base percentage and only four home runs across 178 plate appearances. Yet, he did steal eight bases across the final two months of the season and his defense was as good as advertised. Siri can hit the ball hard – if he can manage to make more contact or draw more walks, there is a path to an extremely productive season here. Tampa Bay will appreciate him for his defense and baserunning, even if he continues to swing and miss at at alarming rate.

Outfield, Manuel Margot

In 2023, Manuel Margot is the highest-paid hitter on the Rays roster, making $7 million. Margot is a capable defender with plus-contact skills, giving him a high floor heading into the new campaign. After being limited to only 89 games in 2022, Margot will hope for better health in his age-28 campaign.

In DFS, Margot is a strong value play on days when Tampa Bay faces a southpaw on the mound. In his career, Margot owns a 113 wRC+ and a .773 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared to an 80 wRC+ and a .660 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Designated Hitter, Harold Ramirez

Harold Ramirez missed roughly a month with a fractured thumb in the middle of last season, but otherwise played nearly everyday, posting strong offensive numbers. Prior to landing on the injured list in the middle of July, Ramirez had a .329 batting average, .825 OPS, and a 13.6% strikeout rate. He struggled upon his return, hitting .258 with a .630 OPS and a 21.1% strikeout percentage – predictable for a batter who suffers a hand injury.

Still, Ramirez ended the year with a 158 wRC+ and an .873 OPS against southpaws. He ranked in the 94th percentile in xBA and the 72nd percentile in sprint speed. He is a valuable contributor for the Rays when healthy.

Utility, Josh Lowe

Jose Lowe, a former first round draft pick in 2016, struggled to a .221 batting average and a 33.3% strikeout percentage in his first extended taste of big league action. He was particularly poor against left-handed pitching, with only four singles in 46 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he was 13% better than league average against right-handed pitching and has plenty of room to continue getting better, considering that he is only 25 years old. At minimum, Lowe is a strong platoon option for 2023. If he can make improvements against big league southpaws, he could emerge as one of the better young players in the game.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher:

Starting Pitcher, Shane McClanahan

It is difficult to make an argument that any starting pitcher took a bigger step forward in 2022 than McClanahan. He finished the year ranked in the 71st percentile in average exit velocity, 88th percentile in HardHit%, 87th percentile in strikeout percentage, 82nd percentile in walk rate, and the 94th percentile in Whiff%. His fastball velocity and curveball spin rate were both upper-tier among qualified hurlers.

Among pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings, McClanahan finished in the top-10 in xERA and WHIP. He improved his ground ball rate from 45.5% to 50.2% from 2021 to 2022. Most importantly, a significant increase in changeup and curveball usage against right-handed batters helped him improve from a 3.51 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP to a 2.91 FIP and a 0.91 WHIP against what used to be the troublesome side of the platoon for him.

McClanahan’s workload is likely to still be closely monitored in 2023, making him unworthy of a preseason Cy Young ticket. However, there is little doubt that he has firmly established himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in the league – one without a discernable weakness entering his age-26 campaign.

Starting Pitcher, Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow has a reputation as one of the elite pitchers in baseball, but many would find it surprising to learn that he has never thrown more than 111.2 innings in a single season. According to Marc Topkin, Tyler Glasnow sustained an oblique injury in February during a live batting practice session. As a result, Glasnow is expected to be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks from the incident, meaning that he will not be in the rotation when the team breaks camp for the regular season. The one positive that could result from this injury is that the team will have to worry less about his load management throughout the season, due to the innings Glasnow will miss to begin the campaign.

In 2021, Glasnow had a 2.66 ERA, 2.74 xERA, and a 2.77 FIP prior to suffering a season-ending injury. His newly-minted slider held opposing hitters to a .197 batting average while generating a 30.8% Whiff rate during his first 88.0 innings of work.

There are no longer questions about whether or not Glasnow will unlock the potential that made him a fifth-round pick in 2011. The only concern here is whether or not he will be available for Tampa Bay’s rotation for any significant length of time each year.

Starting Pitcher, Drew Rasmussen

Prior to 2022, Drew Rasmussen was primarily used as a reliever, having never thrown more than 76 innings in a single season. Last year, he was transitioned into the starting rotation, making 28 starts. The results were outstanding, delivering a 2.84 ERA, 3.46 xERA, and a 3.26 FIP.

Rasmussen added a cutter, which gave him a third reliable offering to give hitters a different look when going through the order multiple times. The offering held left-handed hitters to four extra-base hits for the entire season, despite the fact that he threw it 34.1% of the time.

Overall, Rasmusen ranked in the 88th percentile in walk rate and the 90th percentile in chase rate in 2022. His ground ball rate ranked 35th out of 140 pitches who threw at least 100 innings. He has an extremely high floor as a middle-of-the-rotation piece for the Rays in 2023.

Starting Pitcher, Jeffrey Springs

In three seasons before being acquired by Tampa Bay, Jeffrey Springs had a 5.42 ERA and a 4.66 FIP with the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox. In his first year with the Rays, Springs worked exclusively out of the bullpen, producing a 3.43 ERA, 3.30 xERA, and a 3.91 FIP. In 2022, he transitioned into the starting rotation, where he thrived – finishing the campaign with a 2.46 ERA, 3.27 xERA, and a 3.04 FIP.

Against right-handed batters, Springs threw more changeups and fewer fastballs, which helped him continue to have success against right-handed batters. In total, Springs had a 2.66 FIP, 28.0 K% and a 1.05 WHIP against righties last season.

Last year, Springs finished in the 73rd percentile in average exit velocity, 71st percentile in strikeout percentage, 83rd percentile in walk rate, and the 96th percentile in chase rate. He befuddles hitters with a triangle of death approach on the mound, throwing his fastball at the top of the zone, then using his slider and changeup with extreme precision on opposing lower quadrants of the strike zone.

We are less than two weeks away from celebrating our first Jeffrey Springs Day of 2023 as of this writing! (Note: this is not a holiday celebrated by many opposing batters)

Starting Pitcher, Zach Eflin

During the offseason, the Rays inked Zach Eflin to a three-year deal worth $40 million, the most money that the organization has ever committed to a free agent. The move was seen by many pundits as particularly surprising, considering the fact that Eflin owns a 36-45 career win-loss record to go with a 4.49 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and a 1.30 WHIP. Further, Eflin has only once thrown more than 128.0 innings in a single season – having been limited throughout his MLB tenure with knee injuries.

The veteran right-hander has shown improvement in recent seasons and possesses excellent command of the strike zone. In 2022, he secured a first-pitch strike to 67.1% of batters, which would have ranked fourth-best in all of baseball, if only Eflin would have thrown the necessary number of innings to qualify for the leaderboard.

Across 240.1 innings of work from 2020 to 2022, Eflin delivered a 4.08 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and a 1.21 WHIP, but the Rays are betting on Eflin being even better in the state of Florida. It would not be surprising to see Tampa Bay encourage Eflin to throw his curveball and changeup much more frequently against left-handed batters, which could lead to improved results across the platoon split. In spring training, there has already been evidence that Eflin has tinkered with his curveball to improve the offering significantly.

Health is a concern, but there is far more potential here than what shows up on the back of his baseball card. At 200:1 to win the AL Cy Young award, Eflin is certainly a longshot, but if he is healthy – it is easy to see this ticket aging like fine wine, creating an extremely profitable hedge opportunity on the futures market later in the summer.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Pete Fairbanks

Pete Fairbanks threw only 24 innings last season, but he was impressive when he was on the mound. He suffered a torn lat during the spring, which kept him out of commission until the middle of July. After two rocky appearances to begin his season, he did not allow a single run across his final 22 innings of work. In that span, he had a 46.8% strikeout percentage and a 3.9% walk rate. He is the best pitcher in baseball that nobody knows about.

Relief Pitcher, Jason Adam

From 2018 to 2021, Jason Adam posted a 4.71 ERA and a 4.75 FIP across 78.1 innings with the Kansas City Royals, Toronto Blue Jays, and Chicago Cubs. In 2022, Adam had a 1.56 ERA, 2.09 xERA, and a 2.86 FIP in 63.1 innings for the Rays. How did that happen?

Tampa Bay reduced his fastball usage drastically, concurrently elevating his changeup and slider usage while completely eliminating his curveball. Adam’s command improved, allowing him to limit baserunners like never before.

Adam might be the second-best pitcher in baseball that nobody knows about. He is a bonafide bullpen ace.

Relief Pitcher, Colin Poche

Colin Poche did not pitch at all in 2020 or 2021 while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Last year, he returned to action with the Rays, delivering a 3.99 ERA, 3.51 xERA, and a 4.54 FIP. He ranked in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity and the 69th percentile in Whiff%, but command issues make him best suited for middle-relief work rather than high leverage situations. He is a fine seventh inning option for Kevin Cash.

Relief Pitcher, Jalen Beeks

Similar to his southpaw teammate in the bullpen, Jalen Beeks did not pitch in 2021 while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. In his first season back on the mound, he had a 2.80 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 3.49 FIP. His fastball velocity regularly sat around 95 mph in 2022, roughly two miles-per-hour quicker than before surgery. Beeks is a high floor option for the Rays in relief and he is capable of eating multiple frames on occasion.

Relief Pitcher, Garrett Cleavinger

Garrett Cleavinger was traded to the Rays last summer and then miraculously improved his command, which had always been his biggest issue. In 18.2 innings after joining Tampa Bay, Cleavinger had a 2.41 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 36.8% strikeout percentage, 5.9% walk rate, and a 0.64 WHIP. He is the third-best pitcher in this arm barn and has high-leverage upside if he can continue to find the strike zone on a regular basis.

Tampa Bay Rays – Futures Pick & Prediction

Across the last five seasons, the Rays have played at a 94-win pace, with only one campaign of fewer than 90 wins in that span (not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 year). In 2022, Tampa Bay won 86 games, despite being poor defensively, poor on the basepaths, and striking out at alarming rates for the vast majority of the summer. Heading into 2023, this group has arguably the best starting rotation in the league after acquiring Zach Eflin via free agency. They have made philosophical changes as an organization at the plate, which promise to improve the team’s offensive output – in addition to getting Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco back healthy for a full season. In a worst-case scenario, Tampa Bay figures to win 85 games. The ceiling is so much higher than that. Take the over on their win total and don’t be shy about it.

PICK: Over 88.5 wins (-105, DraftKings)

2023 Tampa Bay Rays DFS Pick’em

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom