Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, August 3rd
Expect a number of teams to try out some of their new toys the rest of the way. The Tigers acquired some interesting pitching prospects, one of whom they used last night. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are calling up a couple of highly touted arms this week as well. No such option exists tonight, but it’s something that’s going to be fun to watch over the last two months.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.4 | 3.73 | 6.17 | 1 | 1.01 | 3.81 | 4.39 | FLA | 84 | 78 | 43 | 17.5% | 4.7% | 21.0% | 11.6% | 7.4% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 2.4 | 4.15 | 6.04 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 4.36 | 2.93 | HOU | 93 | 107 | 153 | 21.7% | 5.8% | 19.5% | 12.4% | 8.4% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -4.1 | 2.78 | 6.86 | 1.49 | 0.91 | 2.55 | 3.58 | ANA | 107 | 103 | 54 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 20.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% |
| David Price | TOR | -2 | 3.02 | 7.12 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 2.83 | 3.8 | MIN | 72 | 97 | 86 | 22.5% | 5.9% | 20.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | -4.5 | 4.09 | 6.32 | 1.46 | 1.03 | 3.75 | 3.56 | ARI | 96 | 96 | 98 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 20.2% | 10.0% | 5.9% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | -0.5 | 5.36 | 5.07 | 2 | 1.4 | 5.04 | 5.12 | SEA | 86 | 94 | 106 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 21.8% | 14.5% | 5.8% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.3 | 3.85 | 6.28 | 1.28 | 1.05 | 3.52 | 4.31 | TOR | 126 | 107 | 130 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 22.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -2.7 | 2.79 | 6.61 | 2.19 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.35 | COL | 99 | 103 | 98 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 20.5% | 13.6% | 8.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -4.5 | 3.39 | 5.9 | 2.04 | 0.91 | 3.16 | 2.53 | CHC | 96 | 94 | 94 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 22.7% | 10.1% | 5.6% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3 | 3.61 | 6.37 | 1.94 | 0.91 | 3.54 | 4.75 | CLE | 91 | 97 | 102 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -8.5 | 3.61 | 5.98 | 1.16 | 0.93 | 3.63 | 3.69 | BAL | 89 | 102 | 106 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.2 | 3.25 | 6.66 | 1.26 | 0.91 | 3.25 | 1.56 | PIT | 101 | 95 | 104 | 24.4% | 6.0% | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -6.3 | 3.52 | 6.31 | 1.36 | 1.08 | 3.26 | 2.62 | TAM | 92 | 110 | 137 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -1.7 | 3.43 | 5.85 | 1.6 | 1.08 | 3.21 | 3.95 | TEX | 95 | 100 | 102 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 19.6% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 1.7 | 4.04 | 6.14 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 4.21 | 4.16 | ATL | 88 | 88 | 67 | 17.2% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -3.9 | 4.01 | 5.8 | 0.63 | 0.98 | 4.81 | 3.61 | SFO | 110 | 114 | 87 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 18.9% | 11.9% | 8.5% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 9.6 | 3.77 | 5.77 | 1.2 | 1.08 | 3.49 | 4.03 | CHW | 80 | 90 | 162 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 22.2% | 11.1% | 7.8% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 5.2 | 4.36 | 5.92 | 1.22 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 4.06 | NYM | 72 | 90 | 99 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 20.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 7.6 | 4.97 | 6. | 1.53 | 0.93 | 5.08 | OAK | 98 | 96 | 46 | ||||||
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -8.6 | 3.19 | 6.08 | 2.83 | 1.07 | 3.37 | 2.38 | MIL | 87 | 90 | 44 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 21.5% | 13.4% | 6.5% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -3.8 | 3.87 | 6.12 | 1.82 | 1.07 | 3.36 | 4.05 | SDG | 86 | 90 | 106 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 16.8% | 9.9% | 12.5% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 3.1 | 3.22 | 6. | 1.89 | 1.03 | 4.19 | 3.22 | WAS | 90 | 96 | 61 | 21.7% | 7.8% | 19.4% | 21.9% | 4.2% |
Bartolo Colon was hit hard in his last start. In fact his hard hit rate has been above 35% in each of his last three starts and is now on pace to allow his most HRs in a decade (17 so far). However, he still maintains a 15.3 K-BB% and 2.7 BB% that are both career bests with his highest K% in four years. Thankfully, the Stanton-less Marlins don’t hit the ball very hard (6.5 Hard-Soft%) and have poor plate discipline vs RHPs (13.8 K-BB%). They are the 3rd worst home offense, worst vs RHP, and coldest over the last week, making them easily the top matchup tonight.
Corey Kluber has had inconsistent results and only exceeded seven strikeouts twice in his last 10 starts, but his ERA estimators are only a bit higher than last year with the key difference being in a strand rate that’s gone from 78.6% to 70.1%. His walk and strikeout rates along with BABIP and HR/FB are all approximately the same. In fact, his SwStr% has actually improved this year, even with a drop over the last month. His 24.0 K-BB% and 6.4 HR/FB are actually better on the road since last season and he gets another good park to pitch in tonight. The Angels are above average and vs RHP, but cold over the last week (6.7 HR/FB, -2.5 Hard-Soft%). The park adjustment makes them a positive matchup.
Felix Hernandez is the guy you really can’t use today in Colorado, especially with the very un-Felix-like inconsistency this season, but I can’t bring myself to put him in the unmentionables section either on a short slate. The facts are that he has his highest HR rate (14.0 HR/FB) since 2007 and highest walk rate (7.3%) since 2007. He allowed at least seven runs for the third time this year in his last start. Although I’m not endorsing loading up on Colorado batters in your cash games, this is a difficult pitcher to confidently endorse under the worst conditions of the night right now.
Francisco Liriano has allowed two ERs or less in six straight starts. The walks and strikeouts haven’t been as consistent. He struck out just four with no walks in his last start, but had walked at least three in four of his previous five. He’s only exceed six strikeouts in two of his last 10 starts now despite some great swing and miss numbers for the season due to being in double digits in the two games he did go off. There seems to be nothing in the middle ground in terms of K%, but the batted ball portion of his game has been tremendous with a 2.09 GB/FB and -4.1 Hard-Soft%. Hopefully, a meeting with the Cubs will spike his strikeout rate. They have a 23.9 K% on the road and 22.9 K% with a 7.3 HR/FB vs LHP. They park adjust down to a very good matchup.
Garrett Richards struck out just three of 26 Astros in his last start, though he got 13 swinging strikes in 101 pitches. He now has a 9.9 K-BB% and looks like he being buoyed by a .261 BABIP for the second straight season. We’ll get into that more as I continue to see upside and part of that is his ability to continue to generate weak contact (3.5 Hard-Soft% this year). Cleveland is a patient team with a K-BB% in single digits both on the road and vs RHP. They could give him some trouble.
Jesse Chavez has allowed three to five ERs in eight of his last 10 starts with five or fewer strikeouts in each of those eight starts as well. Even with that though, he’s maintained a league average K% this year and has a 6.4 HR/FB at home since last season. Here, he gets a Baltimore team, whose greatest strength (power), he should be able to counter at home, but who could help him generate a few more strikeouts. The Orioles have a 23.8 K% on the road and 22.3 K% vs RHP.
Jon Lester struck out a season high 14 Rockies in his last start and has gone at least seven innings in six straight starts. Although his ERA is nearly a run higher, his K-BB% and ERA estimators are now almost exactly the same as last season with an ERA nearly to match now that his LD% and BABIP have normalized almost. He has a solid matchup against an average Pittsburgh offense that park adjusts down to a good matchup with a 23.5 K% vs LHP.
Jose Quintana is a good pitcher (15.7 K-BB%) with a bad defense in a rough situation tonight. He has just a 4.3 HR/FB at home since last season and the Rays have a 21.7 K% vs LHP, but that’s just about all the good news. They are the 5th best offense vs LHP and hitting the ball well over the last week. It’s a tough park adjusted matchup for Quintana.
Lance McCullers has allowed two ERs or less in 10 of 13 starts and no more than four. He is striking out a quarter of the batters he faces, but just a league average rate with a below average SwStr% over the last month and just one of four starts with more than five strikeouts. He faces an average Texas offense in a tough park, but they lean heavily left handed. He’s actually been better vs LHBs so far with a reverse platoon split, though the sample is still small.
Matt Cain has alternated good and bad starts through five this year, but has the first double digit SwStr% of his career so far, though the K% is just below average. Tonight, he faces a team with just a 17.2 K% vs RHP and 13.0 K% over the last week, but a weak offense and solid park adjusted offense overall. They have little power (7.4 HR/FB at home and vs RHP) and don’t hit the ball hard at all (4.8 Hard-Soft%).
Nate Karns has been about league average, but a great defense and park pushes his ERA down to a bit better than that. He gets to retain just one of those things tonight, but has a 17.1 K-BB% and 7.4 HR/FB on the road since last season. The White Sox have been a bad team that strikes out slightly above average all season, but red hot over the last week.
Tyson Ross allowed his first HR since April and just fourth this year to the red hot Lucas Duda in his last start. He’s now gone seven straight starts with fewer than seven innings, but continues to generate tons of strikeouts and weak ground balls (62.9 GB%, 2.1 Hard-Soft%) when he is in there. The Brewers now have a few more LHBs, whom Ross sometimes struggles with in his walk rate, but it’s not really an upgrade after trading Carols Gomez. Despite the park, they are ice cold since the trade (2.2 HR/FB over the last week) and are a good park adjusted matchup with a 14.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Wily Peralta only struck out three of 23 Giants, but kept 13 of 18 batted balls on the ground against a tough offense in his return. A strong ground ball rate has been more his thing than strikeouts, but he faces a San Diego team with a 15.5 K% vs RHP this year. They’ve been bad for most of the season, but a bit better over the last week and the park adjusts them to a just about neutral matchup here.
Zachary Godley has shot all the way from just 14 innings above A ball this year to the majors and has been interesting in two starts with a double digit SwStr% in each along with a 54.8 GB%. He hasn’t thrown enough innings to make too big of a deal out of, but he faces a reeling Washington offense who were just schooled by a dominant Mets pitching staff over the weekend. They have a 25.1 K% over the last week and even though they are back at nearly full strength again, are showing some signs of rust (especially Jayson Werth).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Tom Koehler (.251 BABIP – 73.7 LOB% – 11.3 HR/FB) – It’s tough to figure an 11.3 HR/FB in Miami, but he backs that up with a 17.9 Hard-Soft%. The Mets are the worst road offense in the majors though (22.3 K%, 7.4 HR/FB), but have some new hitters now.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Doug Fister – A normal sized person would probably have to crawl in his house. The ceiling is very close to the floor.
Mike Foltynewicz has shown some recent upside in his K% and is probably better than his ERA, but faces a tough lineup with a 17.9 K% vs RHP. He’s one of a few pitchers who just miss the cut tonight.
Colby Lewis has only allowed more than three ERs in one of his last 11 starts, though he allowed 10 in that start and has allowed a single HR in each of his last five starts. He has a 4.36 xFIP at home since last season. Houston strikes out a ton, but has a 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP.
Tyler Wilson was rated as the Orioles #20 prospect by Fangraphs in January, called a “big league arm of some sort” though it was thought to be in middle relief. He had just a 15.7 K% in AAA and has struck out just four of 68 batters faced. Although it’s not a bad overall park adjusted matchup in terms of contact quality, he faces an Oakland team with a low strikeout rate.
Eddie Butler – The Seattle lefties will be who you are stacking today.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.3% | 3.4% | Road | 16.4% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.8% | 5.6% | Home | 17.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 1.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.2% | 5.3% | Road | 29.4% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 4.7% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 24.6% | 4.1% | Home | 25.8% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.5% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 14.7% | 4.7% | Home | 15.7% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 10.3% | 11.4% | Home | 9.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 20.1% | 7.6% | Road | 20.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 26.0% | 6.3% | Road | 25.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 5.9% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.7% | 10.1% | Home | 25.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 6.1% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 20.4% | 7.7% | Home | 20.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 8.9% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.0% | 7.3% | Home | 21.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 7.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.8% | 5.7% | Road | 23.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 1.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.1% | 5.8% | Home | 22.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 1.8% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 25.0% | 8.7% | Road | 26.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 18.7% | 7.1% | Road | 17.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 20.7% | 7.6% | Home | 18.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 22.5% | 8.3% | Road | 24.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.6% | 9.0% | Home | 19.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 9.4% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | 5.9% | 4.4% | Road | 7.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 25.0% | 9.5% | Road | 22.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 9.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 18.0% | 7.4% | Home | 19.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 23.4% | 6.4% | Road | 15.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 6.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 19.7% | 6.8% | RH | 20.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.6% |
| Astros | Road | 23.5% | 7.0% | RH | 24.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.1% |
| Angels | Home | 20.2% | 7.8% | RH | 19.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.1% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 6.9% | LH | 19.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.1% | 7.6% | RH | 20.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.1% | RH | 21.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 15.8% | 9.6% | RH | 18.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.3% | 9.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.6% | 7.3% | RH | 19.6% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 7.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.9% | 8.8% | LH | 22.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.2% |
| Indians | Road | 18.0% | 8.6% | RH | 18.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.8% | 6.6% | RH | 22.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 6.9% | LH | 23.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.3% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 7.4% | LH | 21.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 8.3% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.7% |
| Braves | Home | 18.7% | 8.5% | RH | 17.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 13.0% | 3.4% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 6.9% | RH | 17.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 6.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 6.4% | RH | 20.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.6% | 7.2% | RH | 17.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.0% | 7.1% | RH | 20.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.9% |
| Padres | Road | 21.9% | 7.4% | RH | 22.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | RH | 21.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 6.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 22.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | Road | 22.3% | 10.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 20.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | Home | 20.4% | 9.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | Road | 23.2% | 6.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 22.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | Home | 21.8% | 9.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 20.2% | 9.3% | 5.4% | Home | 20.5% | 7.0% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 23.7% | 15.3% | 9.7% | Home | 23.1% | 10.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 24.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% | Road | 26.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 29.5% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.4% | 11.6% | 8.4% | Road | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.0% | 11.8% | 8.0% | Home | 19.2% | 15.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | Home | 20.1% | 4.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.8% | 9.2% | 11.3% | Home | 24.9% | 6.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.7% | 6.9% | 12.2% | Road | 20.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | Home | 22.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 18.8% | 4.8% | 12.7% | Road | 21.1% | 4.0% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 21.1% | 11.8% | 13.2% | Road | 22.6% | 17.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.8% | 19.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 22.4% | 10.9% | 13.4% | Home | 20.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 20.3% | 11.7% | 7.8% | Road | 20.7% | 7.4% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | Home | 18.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | 18.6% | 0.0% | 5.3% | Road | 8.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.0% | 9.9% | 5.7% | Road | 22.3% | 14.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.0% | 13.6% | 8.8% | Home | 20.1% | 18.6% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 16.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% | Road | 21.1% | 50.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | RH | 20.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Road | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.8% | RH | 20.1% | 15.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 14.2% | 18.2% | 7.6% |
| Angels | Home | 21.7% | 12.3% | 10.7% | RH | 20.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 12.8% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Twins | Road | 19.0% | 7.3% | 11.2% | LH | 20.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.6% | 12.2% | 7.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | RH | 21.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.4% | 12.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.0% | 11.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 14.5% | 4.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 15.2% | 14.4% | RH | 18.8% | 13.5% | 12.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.7% | 13.2% | 8.9% | RH | 21.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | LH | 24.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 15.3% | 3.4% |
| Indians | Road | 20.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | RH | 20.4% | 9.7% | 11.6% | L7Days | 17.9% | 10.3% | 14.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | RH | 21.1% | 14.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.0% | 10.5% | 6.3% | LH | 23.5% | 11.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | LH | 20.3% | 11.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.6% | 12.1% | 9.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | RH | 18.9% | 11.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Braves | Home | 21.1% | 7.4% | 10.8% | RH | 22.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 9.1% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Road | 22.8% | 13.0% | 5.6% | RH | 21.7% | 10.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 11.5% | 9.7% | 4.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | RH | 21.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.7% | 16.7% | 6.7% |
| Mets | Road | 23.3% | 7.4% | 11.2% | RH | 22.9% | 9.4% | 12.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 26.0% | 16.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | 12.1% | RH | 20.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 15.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.2% | 11.4% | 6.6% | RH | 21.1% | 9.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.9% | 2.2% | 13.3% |
| Padres | Road | 20.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | RH | 19.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.5% | 15.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 11.4% | 9.1% | RH | 21.0% | 13.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 18.1% | 6.8% | 2.66 | 14.3% | 8.5% | 1.68 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.4% | 8.4% | 2.19 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 1.76 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.4% | 12.8% | 2.14 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.34 |
| David Price | TOR | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.04 | 26.4% | 13.0% | 2.03 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 11.9% | 5.2% | 2.29 | 12.9% | 5.1% | 2.53 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 11.9% | 6.8% | 1.75 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 2.29 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 17.0% | 11.8% | 1.44 | 17.0% | 11.8% | 1.44 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.22 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 2.29 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 27.8% | 14.3% | 1.94 | 27.6% | 14.6% | 1.89 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 18.0% | 10.7% | 1.68 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.66 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 20.6% | 8.8% | 2.34 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.60 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.0% | 10.5% | 2.38 | 31.9% | 11.8% | 2.70 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.10 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.47 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.63 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 2.57 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 19.3% | 10.4% | 1.86 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 1.87 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 22.0% | 9.4% | 2.34 | 30.8% | 12.3% | 2.50 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.73 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 2.32 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.1% | 6.8% | 2.51 | 15.8% | 6.9% | 2.29 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 5.9% | 6.5% | 0.91 | |||
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.3% | 12.4% | 2.04 | 26.0% | 10.2% | 2.55 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 15.0% | 8.3% | 1.81 | 13.0% | 6.0% | 2.17 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 23.4% | 13.7% | 1.71 | 23.4% | 13.7% | 1.71 |
Bartolo Colon – The world is coming to an end if this guy has a high SwStr%, but low K% as he has over the last month. That’s really just a run of three straight starts with a double digit SwStr%. The last two and the six preceding the three were all below 6%.
Garrett Richards has seen no change in his SwStr% from last season. He did have a SwStr rate that suggested a higher K% in limited work prior to last season too though, so let’s see if there’s a difference in his pitch mix. Via Pitchf/x, it looks like he threw more two-seamers last year, but has gone back to his cutter this season, which was more prevalent in 2013 as well. I wonder why he would consider changing anything from last year though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.96 | 3.76 | -1.2 | 3.78 | -1.18 | 3.8 | -1.16 | 6.97 | 4.31 | -2.66 | 4.44 | -2.53 | 4.34 | -2.63 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.42 | 4.05 | -0.37 | 4.34 | -0.08 | 3.86 | -0.56 | 5.34 | 3.83 | -1.51 | 4.22 | -1.12 | 4.18 | -1.16 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.44 | 2.84 | -0.6 | 2.82 | -0.62 | 2.53 | -0.91 | 2.82 | 3.66 | 0.84 | 3.53 | 0.71 | 2.77 | -0.05 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.53 | 3.34 | 0.81 | 3.3 | 0.77 | 3.01 | 0.48 | 2.25 | 2.96 | 0.71 | 2.86 | 0.61 | 3.45 | 1.2 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 4.39 | 4.71 | 0.32 | 4.59 | 0.2 | 4.36 | -0.03 | 4.5 | 4.54 | 0.04 | 4.66 | 0.16 | 3.59 | -0.91 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 4.82 | 5.29 | 0.47 | 5.05 | 0.23 | 5.61 | 0.79 | 4.91 | 5.12 | 0.21 | 4.61 | -0.3 | 5.81 | 0.9 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.78 | 4.42 | 0.64 | 4.38 | 0.6 | 5.07 | 1.29 | 3.78 | 4.42 | 0.64 | 4.38 | 0.6 | 5.07 | 1.29 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.02 | 3.19 | 0.17 | 3.1 | 0.08 | 3.37 | 0.35 | 2.94 | 3.38 | 0.44 | 3.18 | 0.24 | 3.21 | 0.27 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 2.92 | 3 | 0.08 | 2.82 | -0.1 | 2.94 | 0.02 | 2.63 | 2.96 | 0.33 | 2.6 | -0.03 | 2.38 | -0.25 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.38 | 4.06 | 0.68 | 3.97 | 0.59 | 3.84 | 0.46 | 2.97 | 4 | 1.03 | 3.72 | 0.75 | 3.91 | 0.94 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 3.53 | 3.78 | 0.25 | 3.74 | 0.21 | 3.24 | -0.29 | 5.33 | 4.06 | -1.27 | 4.09 | -1.24 | 4.47 | -0.86 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.26 | 3.08 | -0.18 | 2.98 | -0.28 | 2.93 | -0.33 | 1.98 | 2.02 | 0.04 | 2.15 | 0.17 | 1.57 | -0.41 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.52 | 3.47 | -0.05 | 3.42 | -0.1 | 3.2 | -0.32 | 2.75 | 2.52 | -0.23 | 2.54 | -0.21 | 2.73 | -0.02 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.48 | 3.43 | 0.95 | 3.43 | 0.95 | 2.77 | 0.29 | 3.13 | 3.75 | 0.62 | 3.5 | 0.37 | 3.09 | -0.04 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.5 | 4.01 | -0.49 | 4.11 | -0.39 | 4.05 | -0.45 | 3.52 | 3.46 | -0.06 | 3.62 | 0.1 | 2.78 | -0.74 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 5.04 | 3.91 | -1.13 | 4.22 | -0.82 | 4.34 | -0.7 | 4.15 | 3.4 | -0.75 | 3.96 | -0.19 | 4.36 | 0.21 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.37 | 3.82 | 0.45 | 3.8 | 0.43 | 3.75 | 0.38 | 3.75 | 3.33 | -0.42 | 3.65 | -0.1 | 3.63 | -0.12 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.38 | 4.37 | 0.99 | 4.28 | 0.9 | 4.34 | 0.96 | 2.61 | 4.39 | 1.78 | 4.32 | 1.71 | 3.8 | 1.19 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 2.12 | 4.97 | 2.85 | 4.9 | 2.78 | 3.32 | 1.2 | |||||||
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.38 | 3.35 | -0.03 | 3.12 | -0.26 | 2.9 | -0.48 | 2.42 | 2.66 | 0.24 | 2.55 | 0.13 | 2.51 | 0.09 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 3.9 | 4.04 | 0.14 | 3.99 | 0.09 | 4.45 | 0.55 | 3 | 4.05 | 1.05 | 4.26 | 1.26 | 3.09 | 0.09 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 2.25 | 3.22 | 0.97 | 3.31 | 1.06 | 4.42 | 2.17 | 2.25 | 3.22 | 0.97 | 3.31 | 1.06 | 4.42 | 2.17 |
Bartolo Colon now has a .320 BABIP along with a sequencing problem (65.6 LOB%) that’s been an issue since May. His BABIP has been above .390 in five of his last seven starts, over which he’s generated a 24.4 LD%. He’s a fly ball pitcher who hasn’t generated as many pop ups as he used to (three straight years with a single digit IFFB%). We could make educated guesses, but with a 42 year old pitcher who relies on locations, who knows?
Corey Kluber has an ERA exactly a run higher this year despite his estimators being only about a quarter of a run higher. His BABIP is essentially the same and will likely continue to be above .300 due to a slightly elevated line drive rate (22.7% this year, 23.1% career) and bad defense, though they’ve been worse in recent years. As mentioned earlier, the key difference is a 78.6 LOB% last year that is now 70.1%. League average is 73.3%, so either is really acceptable though he’s gone from one end of the range close to the other without much of a baseline to draw from before that.
Garrett Richards has a .261 BABIP very similar to the .264 mark he had last year. Last year, he generated an -1.2 Hard-Soft% that’s increased slightly to 3.5% this year, but a 16.4 LD% is a career low. So, he’s doing it similarly, but a bit differently this year, but with a strong defense, it should be sustainable for the most part even with otherwise average indicators. The other big difference this year is a regressed 9.8 HR/FB, as we knew his 3.9 HR/FB last year wasn’t sustainable. If you have confidence in his SwStr% leading to a higher K%, things could get better, but as is, the low BABIP should allow him to stay around three and a half.
Jesse Chavez has been hit harder since the beginning of June. He has a double digit HR/FB and BABIP just above .340 in each month, though his contact authority rates haven’t changed much. He does have a 24% line drive rate, but had a similarly high mark in May as well. He continues to generate a lot of pop ups in that park and has a surprisingly low Z-Contact%, so if the line drive rate settles itself down, his BABIP and results should do likewise. One thing to watch is a velocity drop since the season started, though he’s still fine for the season. His 146.2 IP last season were a high for his professional career and he’s nearing that mark again this year, so fatigue could be setting in, but he should still have something left and gets it up there above 90 mph.
Lance McCullers – I’m fine with the BABIP due to a strong IFFB%, defense, and 18.8 LD%, but the 4.8 HR/FB keeping his FIP and ERA well below three are unsustainable in Houston. He’s allowed just three HRs. An ERA above three seems likely the rest of the way, especially if the K% isn’t what we first thought it was.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.284 | 0.320 | 0.036 | 7.1% | 89.7% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.295 | 0.289 | -0.006 | 8.3% | 89.5% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.301 | 0.317 | 0.016 | 7.5% | 86.5% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.286 | 0.293 | 0.007 | 11.3% | 82.3% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 0.308 | 0.312 | 0.004 | 2.1% | 91.6% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.314 | 0.327 | 0.013 | 10.5% | 90.1% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.296 | 0.222 | -0.074 | 12.8% | 85.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.288 | 0.276 | -0.012 | 10.8% | 88.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.302 | 0.265 | -0.037 | 9.9% | 82.5% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.279 | 0.261 | -0.018 | 9.8% | 88.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.281 | 0.307 | 0.026 | 15.4% | 84.9% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.292 | 0.309 | 0.017 | 8.5% | 86.3% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.317 | 0.333 | 0.016 | 4.9% | 88.0% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.280 | 0.275 | -0.005 | 12.7% | 88.2% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.287 | 0.306 | 0.019 | 13.2% | 86.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.307 | 0.365 | 0.058 | 9.2% | 89.1% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.279 | 0.274 | -0.005 | 7.0% | 88.1% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.287 | 0.251 | -0.036 | 7.3% | 90.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.289 | 0.300 | 0.011 | 5.3% | 93.0% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.293 | 0.334 | 0.041 | 3.5% | 84.6% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.305 | 0.316 | 0.011 | 11.1% | 91.5% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 0.292 | 0.300 | 0.008 | 0.0% | 78.6% |
Francisco Liriano – As mentioned earlier, he’s generating a ton of weak ground balls this year and adds a strong Z-Contact%. As such, I don’t have much of a problem with his low BABIP. In fact, it’s actually a surprise to notice Pittsburgh allowing a mark above .300 as a team.
Tyson Ross doesn’t get a lot of pop ups, but has a strong Z-Contact rate and normal LD%. On top of that, he generates tons of weak ground balls as mentioned earlier. His high BABIP is very likely a complete fluke and has been below .300 in six of his last eight starts.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Zachary Godley becomes an incredibly interesting GPP play for me today. He’s show a double digit SwStr in each of his first two starts, though much lower in his second and faces a Washington offense that’s reeling after this weekend. As a 10th round pick in 2013, I can’t figure out why he was shot so quickly to the majors, but a strong ground ball rate and some swing and miss ability so far haven’t exactly proven that he doesn’t belong. There is still little known about him and the range of outcomes is pretty wide, but he could potentially return the most bang for your daily fantasy buck today.
Value Tier Two
Jon Lester (2) has numbers nearly matching last year aside from ERA. He has a good matchup in a park that kills RH power against a team that strikes out a lot vs LHP. Among several high priced pitchers, his cost and recent run of consistency (at least seven innings and six strikeouts in six straight starts) makes him one of my most trusted tonight. He’s in competition with the next guy for my #2 projected K% tonight.
Corey Kluber (1) is my top overall pitcher and has a matchup of similar quality in another tough park against a cold Angels lineup. Mike Trout is Mike Trout, but the trade deadline upgrades haven’t exactly done much yet. The highest price tag of the day and a strikeout rate that’s dipped over the last month has him just behind Lester in potential value tonight though.
Tyson Ross (3t) – Weak ground balls and strikeouts against a weak and floundering offense. Aside from the park, what’s not to like?
Jesse Chavez – I’m struggling with this one the most because of some signs I’ve written about today, but the Orioles will strike out and should see a lot of their power muted in Oakland. The cost is either average or below average with a good chance of a strong outing here. I think he has a high enough floor in this spot at current prices to be considered. He may be running out of gas, but that’s just a guess on my part though.
Value Tier Three
Bartolo Colon has been hit hard lately, but has a great matchup at a reduced price tonight against an offense that doesn’t really hit the ball hard in a big park.
Wily Peralta doesn’t have a lot of upside in his strikeout rate, but has a decent matchup and keeps the ball on the ground. Even in a tough park, that’s worth something on sites where he carries a price tag near the bottom of the board.
Francisco Liriano (3t) has my top projected strikeout rate tonight, but is never really a given and has been inconsistent in his strikeout rate this year. A date with the Cubs at home should help him, but with a wider range of potential outcomes than the guys like Lester and Kluber, he finds himself a little lower down on the trust and value lists. He has as much upside as anybody tonight though.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jose Quintana – The Rays hit LHP well and that downgrades him.
Nate Karns – has some upside, but the White Sox are the hottest offense of the field tonight.
Lance McCullers – The strikeout rate is down and the overall SwStr% is nothing special. The park and opposing lineup can be tough, but the park hasn’t been as dangerous for LHP this year and he’s had an unreliable reverse platoon split so far. All of this leads to a lot of indecision concerning him for me.
Felix Hernandez – I wouldn’t even chance it tonight in cash games, but a slightly reduced cost on DraftKings could make him an interesting contrarian GPP play.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window