Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, July 6th
There is one small pieces of business to cover before getting started today. The league averages have once again been updated in the chart headers. There were no significant changes, but SwStr rate is now up to 9.7% while K% by the slightest of margins.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -5.5 | 3.56 | 6.37 | 2.07 | 0.91 | 3.45 | 3.11 | SDG | 86 | 87 | 49 | 21.4% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 12.9 | 4.76 | 5.45 | 1.1 | 1.04 | 4.21 | 5.6 | KAN | 100 | 101 | 61 | 15.4% | 8.1% | 21.9% | 6.5% | 9.7% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 5.1 | 4.19 | 6.11 | 1.45 | 0.85 | 4.3 | 3.5 | SEA | 92 | 86 | 77 | 19.5% | 6.7% | 20.7% | 12.0% | 7.6% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 1.2 | 4.3 | 5.68 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 4.14 | 3.16 | WAS | 98 | 100 | 90 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 20.6% | 9.5% | 6.7% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -5.1 | 2.73 | 6.13 | 1.73 | 0.94 | 2.64 | 1.91 | HOU | 102 | 106 | 115 | 27.2% | 6.7% | 19.4% | 12.1% | 9.3% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.5 | 3.44 | 5.95 | 2.56 | 0.87 | 3.21 | 3.81 | NYM | 73 | 84 | 58 | 20.6% | 6.7% | 21.9% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -12 | 2.58 | 6.88 | 1.18 | 1.08 | 2.45 | 1.81 | TOR | 101 | 141 | 131 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 11.3% | 13.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -3.9 | 3.08 | 6.83 | 3.52 | 0.94 | 3.25 | 1.32 | CLE | 111 | 104 | 87 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 21.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | -3.4 | 4.01 | 6.4 | 1.51 | 1.03 | 3.59 | 4.5 | CIN | 85 | 94 | 96 | 16.3% | 6.3% | 19.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 12.4 | 4.22 | 5.84 | 1.52 | 1.04 | 4.39 | 3.2 | TAM | 90 | 91 | 44 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -4.8 | 3.21 | 6.37 | 1.72 | 0.85 | 2.87 | DET | 105 | 108 | 135 | ||||||
| James Shields | SDG | -13.3 | 3.56 | 6.5 | 1.24 | 0.91 | 3.41 | 3.57 | PIT | 100 | 96 | 128 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.7% |
| John Lackey | STL | 5.7 | 3.75 | 6.52 | 1.27 | 1.05 | 4.03 | 4.09 | CHC | 82 | 88 | 53 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 18.0% | 10.1% | 13.2% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 5.4 | 3.35 | 6.59 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 3.05 | 3.69 | STL | 96 | 87 | 51 | 23.9% | 7.5% | 23.0% | 6.4% | 12.2% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 1.2 | 3.81 | 6.24 | 1.75 | 0.87 | 3.79 | 5.32 | SFO | 105 | 100 | 79 | 17.9% | 7.2% | 22.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | -3.4 | 4.13 | 6.23 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 3.86 | 5.27 | ATL | 86 | 93 | 75 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 21.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 2.9 | 4.21 | 6.39 | 1.38 | 1.08 | 4.14 | 2.83 | CHW | 74 | 55 | 91 | 19.7% | 5.2% | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.9% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | -2.1 | 5.07 | 5.7 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 4.82 | 5.11 | MIL | 84 | 93 | 158 | 13.4% | 6.8% | 23.2% | 11.0% | 14.9% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 3 | 3.62 | 6.05 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 3.58 | 4.13 | BAL | 90 | 102 | 63 | 20.8% | 4.6% | 21.8% | 11.4% | 9.0% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | -2.4 | 5.04 | 5.54 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 5.42 | 4.96 | LOS | 122 | 118 | 101 | 15.4% | 7.4% | 20.1% | 17.5% | 5.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 5.1 | 3.85 | 6.07 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 3.96 | 4.67 | MIN | 106 | 96 | 98 | 18.2% | 5.9% | 19.6% | 11.9% | 9.5% |
A.J. Burnett has pitched at least six innings with two ERs or fewer in four of his last five. The biggest noticeable difference in his game this year over last are a much lower HR rate, more ground balls, and a big drop in walk rate. Some of that could be due to his surroundings and we’ll get into that later. He’s got a nice top five park adjusted matchup with the Padres who strike out more than often on the road and vs RHP and have been ice cold (-5.6 Hard-Soft%, 49 wRC+) over the last week.
Alfredo Simon gets the full treatment today. He actually tied a season high with seven strike outs and didn’t walk a batter for only the third time this year, but allowed at least five runs for the third consecutive start because nine line drives. I’ve been calling for serious regression from him for a long time and now his ERA just about matches his peripherals and we can now take him at face value. The Mariners hit the ball hard vs RHP (14.6 Hard-Soft%), but often to no avail, as they are a top five park adjusted matchup that strike out more than average at home and vs RHP.
Anthony DeSclafani tied season highs with both six ERs and seven strikeouts last time out. He’s still searching for a third useful pitch and he may or may not find it, but in the meantime, he has just a 7.6 K-BB%, but has based his modicum of success on a 5.9 HR/FB. Not to say he’s going to sustain that, but he has allowed just one HR of his six HRs in eight road starts this year, so getting out of Cincinnati has to give him some boost his daily fantasy price tag may not be considering. The Nationals represent a neutral matchup at home and strike out about league average at home and vs RHP.
Carlos Carrasco struck out a season high 13 and carried a no-hitter into the 9th last time out. He has a 21.6 K% and this matchup gives him potentially tonight’s top K and K-BB rates. Houston does have a 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP and slightly lesser, but still solid 12.4 HR/FB on the road, but park adjust down to a neutral matchup here and what we’re really concerned with is the strikeouts here. The Astros have a 24.4 K% on the road, 25.9 K% vs RHP, and 24.6 K% over the last week.
Chris Heston gave us some mediocre results last time out, mostly because he struck out just one batter for the 2nd time in three starts when we thought he had a great matchup in Miami. Even though the Mets broke out in LA yesterday, it looks like he has another great matchup tonight at home. He has very average walk and strikeout rates, but a great 3.1 HR/FB in his home park. That may be a little low, but San Francisco kills power, of which the Mets normally don’t have much anyway (7.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Oh, and he no-hit them with a career high 11 strikeouts last time he faced them about a month ago. The Mets are the worst road offense in baseball with a 23.2 K% away from home. They park adjust down to the top matchup of the day.
Chris Sale is bleeping amazing! He now has eight straight starts with double digit strikeout rates and he’s going to make daily fantasy baseball pitcher selection so easy today. Let’s see who he’s going to abuse and dominate tonight. Uh oh! Maybe you just better look at the chart. Sale still has a 29.2 K-BB% for the season, but this is just about the worst spot he could find himself in, possibly even including Colorado. The Blue Jays absolutely destroy lefties (142 wRC+, 134 HR/FB). They are easily the toughest park adjusted matchup tonight. What hurts even more is that the Blue Jays only have a 16.8 K% vs LHP. I still expect him to strike out about a quarter of the batters he faces. He’s so good that I’m not saying he’s unusable, but it does drop my projection for him behind Carrasco
Dallas Keuchel is reliable and he goes deep into games. This allows him to pile up some daily fantasy worthy strikeouts (at least seven in each of his last three starts) with about an average SwStr and K rates. This represents an increase in his K%, but he’s not sacrificing anything to get it. He’s still generating a massive amount of weak ground balls (-5.2 Hard-Soft% leads the majors, while a 64.5 GB% is 2nd to Brett Anderson). Cleveland has just a 7.3 K-BB% vs LHP and are a neutral park adjusted matchup overall.
Doug Fister has not struck out more than four in a game and has allowed at least four ERs in three of his last four starts. He’s been unable to generate the weak contact he did last year (14.9 Hard-Soft%) and that’s been the difference here. Cincinnati is a below average road team when their power can’t play up in bigger ball parks and rates as an above average matchup here.
Edinson Volquez has a 17.9 Hard-Soft% this year, which is the highest mark on the board today, but has been using a big park and great outfield defense to his advantage with a .265 BABIP and 7.4 HR/FB that may just be sustainable in his current situation. This puts him in the realm of a league average pitcher and there might even be some upside in his strikeout rate. Tampa Bay represents a good matchup up here (22.1 K% vs RHP) and have been ice cold over the last week (44 wRC+, 0.6 Hard-Soft%, 4.0 HR/FB, 27.9 K%).
James Shields has allowed 17 HRs this season, but only two over his last seven starts over which his K-BB is only a league average 12.6% too. Along with some of the risk has gone some of the upside. There is some good news on that front though, which we’ll get to later. The Pirates rate a little bit less than neutral in their tough home park, but have been hot lately.
John Lackey has pitched at least seven innings with two ERs or less in each of his last four starts. His strikeout rate is below league average this year despite an average SwStr rate, but the Cubs strike out a ton (24.5 K% at home, 24.6 K% vs RHP). They have one of the worst home offenses in baseball along with one of the coldest over the last week.
Jon Lester pitched very well in his last start against the Mets and has pitched well in three of his last four in fact. The big thing here though is that the Cardinals have just a -0.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP with a 24.7 K%. That gives him not only a very good park adjusted matchup, but the number three projected K% tonight behind Carrasco and Sale.
Mark Buerhle gets the rare write-up due to the situation he finds himself in against his former team. There’s also the fact that he’s now gone six straight starts with two ERs or less and gone at least seven innings with no less than five strikeouts in each of the last four. That’s not too far away from a league average K%. What the heck is going on? The White Sox are not only the worst home offense in baseball, but their efforts vs LHP are the polar opposite of the team they are facing today. They are just as bad as the Blue Jays are good against southpaws. That includes a 17.6 K-BB%, 7.9 HR/FB, and 1.2 Hard-Soft%. Even with the park bump, they represent one of the top five matchups tonight.
Phil Hughes has allowed 19 HRs this year. Last year, with a 6.2 HR/FB he had us convinced the problem was Yankee Stadium. This year, his 13.2 HR/FB is the worst of his career with nine of those coming at home. The biggest concern is a complete inability to miss bats this year. The Orioles are a neutral matchup here, but are cold and do have a 24.1 K% on the road and 22.8 K% vs RHP. Their power should play down a bit on the road here, but maybe not so much against Hughes.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Wei-Yin Chen (.257 BABIP – 83.9 LOB% – 13.2 HR/FB)
Matthew Wisler (.263 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 4.5 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Carlos Frias – This is due to health and not talent. In fact, I’m just now reading that he’s hit the DL and is definitely not starting tonight. The Dodgers still haven’t named a starter as of late Monday morning.
Sean O’Sullivan – That’s right, I’m putting him below a pitcher who just went on the DL. I’d rather start Frias and take a zero than O’Sullivan against the Dodgers.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 21.7% | 8.6% | Home | 22.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 3.5% |
| Alex Colome | Rays | 14.6% | 8.7% | Road | 15.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 10.1% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.9% | 7.2% | Road | 15.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 16.9% | 7.6% | Road | 18.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 26.3% | 5.5% | Home | 27.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 5.3% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 19.6% | 6.8% | Home | 20.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 8.5% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 29.9% | 5.4% | Home | 33.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 3.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.1% | 6.4% | Road | 17.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 1.6% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 15.1% | 4.8% | Home | 16.9% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 5.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.6% | 8.8% | Home | 16.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.6% | 4.1% | Home | 20.6% | 1.8% | L14 Days | ||
| James Shields | Padres | 21.3% | 6.2% | Road | 22.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 12.0% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.1% | 5.6% | Road | 15.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 8.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.2% | 6.0% | Home | 24.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.6% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.6% | 6.2% | Road | 16.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 12.1% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 16.5% | 5.3% | Home | 18.1% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 5.5% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 14.4% | 5.1% | Road | 12.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 3.9% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 11.1% | 6.9% | Road | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 11.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 19.1% | 2.8% | Home | 18.5% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 1.7% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 10.8% | 7.2% | Road | 7.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 2.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 18.9% | 5.5% | Road | 18.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 5.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 22.2% | 7.5% | RH | 22.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.0% |
| Royals | Home | 14.7% | 6.7% | RH | 16.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.4% | 7.8% | RH | 22.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 4.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 7.9% | RH | 20.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.2% |
| Astros | Road | 24.4% | 7.3% | RH | 25.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.5% | 5.8% | RH | 18.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.3% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 5.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.4% | 4.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | LH | 16.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 15.8% | 8.8% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 10.5% | LH | 17.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 7.6% | RH | 18.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 13.3% | 8.0% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 22.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 6.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.4% | 8.3% | RH | 19.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.3% | 5.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 7.1% | RH | 19.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.5% | 9.2% | RH | 24.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 7.4% | LH | 24.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.4% |
| Giants | Home | 17.5% | 7.7% | LH | 19.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 3.3% |
| Braves | Road | 18.3% | 7.0% | RH | 17.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 4.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 7.0% | LH | 23.2% | 5.6% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.7% | 6.8% | RH | 20.1% | 6.2% | L7Days | 13.2% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.1% | 6.9% | RH | 22.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.8% | 8.9% | RH | 19.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.6% | 10.3% |
| Twins | Home | 18.4% | 6.1% | LH | 19.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | Home | 20.7% | 10.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Alex Colome | Rays | 23.7% | 9.3% | 11.2% | Road | 26.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.4% | 11.0% | 8.9% | Road | 22.2% | 9.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 22.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | Road | 21.7% | 3.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 19.6% | 9.0% | 6.0% | Home | 18.7% | 10.6% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 23.0% | 9.1% | 13.6% | Home | 22.8% | 3.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Home | 20.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.4% | 12.0% | 10.0% | Road | 18.4% | 13.4% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 19.5% | 10.6% | 6.0% | Home | 19.3% | 7.8% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.1% | 10.0% | 5.7% | Home | 17.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.4% | 13.3% | 9.1% | Home | 19.9% | 16.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | |||
| James Shields | Padres | 21.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | Road | 19.6% | 13.9% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.3% | 10.9% | 12.9% | Road | 19.7% | 15.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% | 21.4% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.3% | 7.5% | 13.0% | Home | 22.2% | 6.1% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 22.7% | 10.7% | 6.4% | Road | 21.5% | 11.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 20.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% | Home | 21.4% | 14.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.4% | 8.6% | 11.0% | Road | 22.7% | 7.3% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 18.2% | 4.5% | 18.2% | Road | 35.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 24.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | Home | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 19.0% | 12.2% | 6.5% | Road | 18.9% | 30.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | Road | 18.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 19.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | RH | 19.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% |
| Royals | Home | 21.4% | 6.4% | 10.2% | RH | 21.8% | 8.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | RH | 19.5% | 10.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.8% | 11.6% | 7.7% | RH | 21.0% | 12.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Astros | Road | 23.5% | 12.4% | 11.0% | RH | 21.0% | 15.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 13.8% | 12.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.2% | 5.4% | 9.9% | RH | 22.4% | 6.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.1% | 9.1% |
| Mets | Road | 23.7% | 8.4% | 10.9% | RH | 23.0% | 7.7% | 12.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.3% | 11.5% | 14.5% | LH | 21.5% | 13.4% | 18.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| Indians | Home | 23.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | LH | 22.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Reds | Road | 20.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| Rays | Road | 22.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | RH | 21.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 10.7% | 5.9% | RH | 22.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 10.7% | 12.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.6% | 10.2% | 5.3% | RH | 21.3% | 9.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.6% | 12.5% | 1.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.3% | 9.3% | 12.7% | RH | 19.8% | 10.9% | 11.4% | L7Days | 12.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | LH | 20.0% | 9.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 4.0% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | LH | 21.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 13.0% | 2.2% |
| Braves | Road | 22.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | RH | 21.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 15.4% | 10.2% | 15.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | LH | 21.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.5% | 7.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.6% | 10.9% | 7.4% | RH | 21.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.3% | 2.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 14.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.8% | 4.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.6% | 14.2% | 8.2% | RH | 21.4% | 15.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.0% | 12.1% | 8.6% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | LH | 20.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 21.0% | 8.5% | 2.47 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 2.08 |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.83 | 12.1% | 7.9% | 1.53 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 17.9% | 9.4% | 1.90 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 1.56 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 16.6% | 8.5% | 1.95 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 2.34 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.9% | 13.5% | 2.07 | 27.3% | 16.3% | 1.67 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.25 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 2.15 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 34.6% | 16.0% | 2.16 | 42.8% | 18.0% | 2.38 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.27 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 2.46 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 11.5% | 5.3% | 2.17 | 14.3% | 6.1% | 2.34 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 18.2% | 10.4% | 1.75 | 16.5% | 9.8% | 1.68 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 15.5% | 8.1% | 1.91 | |||
| James Shields | SDG | 27.8% | 14.2% | 1.96 | 24.0% | 14.7% | 1.63 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.93 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 1.89 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.27 | 23.9% | 10.8% | 2.21 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.6% | 5.7% | 2.74 | 18.8% | 5.7% | 3.30 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 16.5% | 9.1% | 1.81 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.45 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 13.1% | 5.4% | 2.43 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 2.98 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 11.1% | 7.7% | 1.44 | 11.1% | 7.7% | 1.44 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.7% | 5.5% | 2.67 | 13.6% | 5.4% | 2.52 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 10.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 10.2% | 6.8% | 1.50 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 20.4% | 8.3% | 2.46 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 2.83 |
Alfredo Simon had a double digit SwStr% just once in his first 10 starts. Alfredo Simon has had at least an 11.1 SwStr% in each of his last five starts. This makes him interesting. BrooksBaseball.com sees a sharp increase in his splitter and cutter usage over the last month with a drop in his sinker. Stay tuned.
Carlos Carrasco is one of three pitchers with a SwStr rate above 15% over the last 30 days. The other guys are names Sale and Kershaw.
Chris Sale – Just look at those rates. Look at them I said! Look at them and drool, while you wish that was you. I’m sorry, I got carried away for a second. It’s just that I’ve never seen anything like that before.
Edinson Volquez has his highest SwStr% since 2012. He had a K rate above 20% that year and every year prior to that with a double digit SwStr%. This year, his K% is the same as it was over the last two seasons with a SwStr% nearly two points lower. Salvador Perez was recently called the best pitch framer in baseball by an MLB Network analyst. He’s -3.5 RAA on StatCorner.com, which makes him one of the worst. They don’t know that you can look things up over there on that channel sometimes.
James Shields has seen his K% drop significantly, though still above league average, over the last month and a half as we talked about earlier. The good news is that he’s had at least a 12.8 SwStr% in each of his last five starts, so perhaps that’s a function of his BB% rising, but he’s still getting an enormous rate of swings and misses.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 2.05 | 3.29 | 1.24 | 3.14 | 1.09 | 2.57 | 0.52 | 1.77 | 3.23 | 1.46 | 2.98 | 1.21 | 2.05 | 0.28 |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 4.7 | 4.66 | -0.04 | 4.45 | -0.25 | 4.59 | -0.11 | 4.32 | 5.49 | 1.17 | 5.13 | 0.81 | 4.29 | -0.03 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 3.94 | 4.21 | 0.27 | 4.06 | 0.12 | 3.85 | -0.09 | 6.18 | 3.78 | -2.4 | 3.69 | -2.49 | 4.53 | -1.65 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.68 | 4.52 | 0.84 | 4.36 | 0.68 | 3.71 | 0.03 | 3.86 | 3.69 | -0.17 | 3.59 | -0.27 | 3.25 | -0.61 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.88 | 2.74 | -1.14 | 2.72 | -1.16 | 2.77 | -1.11 | 3.82 | 2.73 | -1.09 | 2.85 | -0.97 | 3.21 | -0.61 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.78 | 3.38 | -0.4 | 3.39 | -0.39 | 3.29 | -0.49 | 2.76 | 3.16 | 0.4 | 3.48 | 0.72 | 2.84 | 0.08 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 2.87 | 2.19 | -0.68 | 2.28 | -0.59 | 2.09 | -0.78 | 2.17 | 1.38 | -0.79 | 1.41 | -0.76 | 1.02 | -1.15 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.03 | 2.8 | 0.77 | 2.78 | 0.75 | 2.93 | 0.9 | 2.45 | 2.49 | 0.04 | 2.48 | 0.03 | 3.33 | 0.88 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 4.34 | 4.76 | 0.42 | 4.54 | 0.2 | 4.66 | 0.32 | 4.42 | 4.3 | -0.12 | 4.36 | -0.06 | 4.67 | 0.25 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.48 | 4.16 | 0.68 | 4.12 | 0.64 | 3.7 | 0.22 | 4.41 | 4.22 | -0.19 | 4.18 | -0.23 | 4.36 | -0.05 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 6.61 | 4.03 | -2.58 | 3.82 | -2.79 | 6.27 | -0.34 | |||||||
| James Shields | SDG | 4.14 | 3.12 | -1.02 | 3.15 | -0.99 | 4.03 | -0.11 | 5.59 | 3.77 | -1.82 | 3.41 | -2.18 | 3.4 | -2.19 |
| John Lackey | STL | 3.3 | 4.02 | 0.72 | 3.97 | 0.67 | 3.44 | 0.14 | 4.09 | 4.02 | -0.07 | 4.07 | -0.02 | 3.96 | -0.13 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.74 | 3.43 | -0.31 | 3.27 | -0.47 | 3.44 | -0.3 | 3.45 | 3.54 | 0.09 | 3.4 | -0.05 | 2.74 | -0.71 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.9 | 4.11 | 0.21 | 3.93 | 0.03 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 3 | 4.07 | 1.07 | 3.76 | 0.76 | 3.66 | 0.66 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 6.24 | 4.21 | -2.03 | 4.21 | -2.03 | 4.94 | -1.3 | 5.8 | 4.65 | -1.15 | 4.53 | -1.27 | 4.88 | -0.92 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3.64 | 4.29 | 0.65 | 4.05 | 0.41 | 4.07 | 0.43 | 2.12 | 3.31 | 1.19 | 3.2 | 1.08 | 3.2 | 1.08 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 2.6 | 5.07 | 2.47 | 4.97 | 2.37 | 3.95 | 1.35 | 2.6 | 5.07 | 2.47 | 4.97 | 2.37 | 3.95 | 1.35 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.27 | 4.21 | -0.06 | 4.09 | -0.18 | 4.53 | 0.26 | 2.97 | 4.29 | 1.32 | 4.09 | 1.12 | 4.79 | 1.82 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 5.76 | 4.98 | -0.78 | 5.14 | -0.62 | 5.98 | 0.22 | 6.84 | 5.18 | -1.66 | 5.3 | -1.54 | 5.71 | -1.13 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 2.84 | 3.78 | 0.94 | 3.9 | 1.06 | 4.29 | 1.45 | 2 | 3.54 | 1.54 | 3.37 | 1.37 | 4.01 | 2.01 |
A.J. Burnett – We talked about some of this above, but here are the noticeable differences from last year to this year and if they’re sustainable or not. Partially due to the better park, he’s gone from an 11.3 HR/FB to a 4.2 HR/FB. That’s not sustainable as his lowest rate in Pittsburgh previously was a 9.1 HR/FB. Burnett had two of the three highest groundball rates of his career in Pittsburgh and he’s exhibiting the same thing this year (54.7%) after a drop to 50.9% last year. He actually has a higher BABIP this year (.322 to .302), so the overall defense has not been the huge benefit you might think. He’s also stranding a lot more runners (81.2%) and that should regress. The biggest benefit he’s seen though is from the switch in receivers. He’s throwing way more pitches in the zone and first pitch strikes, which undoubtedly helps, but he’s also going from one of the worst pitch framers in Carlos Ruiz to one of the best in Francisco Cervelli according to StatCorner.com. This combination of events and circumstances has not only aided his walk rate significantly, but allowed him to increase his K% without increasing his SwStr%, leading to 4.7 point increase in K-BB%. His ERA is still likely to adjust, but these are the reasons he’s better than he was last year. Being healthy again probably led to some of those positive changes too.
Carlos Carrasco did his job to narrow the gap between his ERA and estimators as an .077 BABIP brought that number possibly as far in line as it’s going to come with his team’s defensive allowed rate. As long as he has a hard hit rate above 30%, there may still be some issues and an 11.1 HR/FB, even in a good park, is going to be one of those problems. He may be able to do more about that than his BABIP.
Chris Sale – His BABIP (.299), LOB (73.0%), and 9.0 HR/FB are all in line. Actually he has a career 79.0 LOB% and you’d expect something higher with all those strikeouts. Maybe that’s what the estimators expect.
Dallas Keuchel has a .238 BABIP without any great indicators in his IFFB%, Z-Contact%, or LD%. However, he just generates so many weak ground balls at a defense that positions itself so well that he might just be the ultimate outlier. That can’t be said for sure at this point, so we always have to expect the norm as a default, but maybe. An 82.4 LOB% would seem to counter a 13.5 HR/FB until you realize that only 15.1% of his batted balls are elevated, so that’s like 7 HR/FB to an average pitcher.
James Shields still has an ERA and FIP well above the rest of the pack due to an 18.3 HR/FB, but as we’ve mentioned, he’s gotten that somewhat under control in recent starts. The .328 BABIP, he might have less control over. His defense is a problem.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.298 | 0.322 | 0.024 | 7.0% | 91.9% |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 0.276 | 0.296 | 0.02 | 13.0% | 89.2% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.294 | 0.301 | 0.007 | 7.1% | 87.4% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.281 | 0.291 | 0.01 | 8.9% | 86.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.306 | 0.323 | 0.017 | 7.4% | 83.7% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.286 | 0.309 | 0.023 | 14.3% | 87.4% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.323 | 0.299 | -0.024 | 5.6% | 74.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.278 | 0.238 | -0.04 | 9.6% | 90.8% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 0.311 | 0.290 | -0.021 | 2.9% | 90.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.274 | 0.265 | -0.009 | 3.2% | 85.3% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.285 | 0.288 | 0.003 | 5.6% | 93.3% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.305 | 0.328 | 0.023 | 11.8% | 82.4% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.290 | 0.294 | 0.004 | 13.2% | 89.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.288 | 0.325 | 0.037 | 9.8% | 86.4% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.286 | 0.314 | 0.028 | 5.7% | 92.7% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.305 | 0.302 | -0.003 | 10.3% | 89.7% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.289 | 0.275 | -0.014 | 9.1% | 91.7% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.301 | 0.263 | -0.038 | 18.2% | 91.2% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.298 | 0.289 | -0.009 | 10.4% | 91.4% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 0.316 | 0.312 | -0.004 | 5.5% | 93.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.285 | 0.257 | -0.028 | 8.8% | 87.2% |
Jon Lester seems to have fairly normal BABIP indicators, but a decent defense behind him. The issue appears to be in a 23.6 LD% that is the highest of his career. There’s a good chance that it regresses to a more normal rate and brings his BABIP down with it. His BABIP has been below .300 in three of his last four starts in fact.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
In a practice started last week, we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Heston (5) had a rough outing in what was supposed to be a great spot in his last outing. He returns home to another great spot tonight and has some really great price tags to go with it. When you put an average pitcher in a great spot at a below average price, you’re very likely to generate a lot of value. I don’t expect him to no-hit the Mets with double digit strikeouts again, but he should do well here.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Carrasco (1) is part of the only scenario that I could even conceive of another pitcher being ahead of Chris Sale today overall (the right price tag can always push someone ahead value wise). He has a matchup with incredible upside in his strikeout rate, while Sale takes on the lefty mashing Blue Jays.
Value Tier Two A
Jon Lester (3t) I do perceive a slight gap between he and Carrasco, who is slightly more expensive as well. Lester has had his issues this season, but has pitched very well more often than not over the last few weeks and the Cardinals really struggle against LHP, leaving him in potentially the number three spot in strikeout generation.
Value Tier Three
Dallas Keuchel (2) stand out a bit above the rest of the pack here, but not enough to really separate into another tier. His price tag has risen above Lester’s now. He’s more of a comfort than a guy with a ton of upside, some of which the Tribe might rob him of here, but the fact that he’s missing so many more bats now gives him a higher starting point and still leaves him in a very good spot here.
A.J. Burnett (6) is probably not as good as his ERA says, but he’s been plenty good and has a great matchup with the Padres tonight. A price tag between Lester and Keuchel holds him back slightly.
Mark Buehrle – Yeah, this is surprising, but you combine the nice little run he’s been on over the last month with the complete inability for competence of the White Sox vs LHP and I have his value (though not overall performance) just above Sale tonight.
Phil Hughes – doesn’t miss bats and allows bombs, so why is he here? The Orioles are cold, are in a tougher park to hit HRs, and should give him a bit of a bump in strikeouts. There’s some risk here, but also some upside. The good news is that he won’t walk anybody, so there’s a good chance a HR or two doesn’t hurt too much.
Edinson Volquez becomes a league average pitcher in Kansas City. He’s got a below average price tag and there is some upside in both his strikeout rate and his strength of opponent tonight.
Alfredo Simon has a great matchup and now comes at a great price due to his ERA blow up. We’ve been expecting that and evaluating him that way all along. He now becomes interesting at current cost in Seattle. I’m also suddenly interested in his recent ability to miss bats. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
There’s very little space between Tiers Three and Four tonight. All five guys in this tier are virtually inter-changeable for me value wise (not overall) tonight.
Doug Fister is nearing dumpster diving territory tonight and that’s about what he’s worth here.
Chris Sale (3t) – A matchup with Toronto in a tough home park leaves him here. He’s merely worth his price for me tonight, which really isn’t that bad considering his cost.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window