Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, September 21st
Don’t look below without reading this. Hey, I warned you. It’s kind of ugly today. There are three high-profile pitchers, all with either tough matchups or areas of concern recently. One of them, I don’t even think we should consider using. The ones that do have really great matchups, have even bigger concerns or are just flat-out terrible. I know this isn’t what you want to see while nursing your NFL hangover on Monday, but I can promise you this: at least you’ll know these pitchers were on the field (unlike some WRs/TEs yesterday). Okay, you’ve been prepared and forewarned. You may continue now.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with, and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -2.1 | 3.78 | 6.34 | 1.93 | 1.4 | 4.04 | 3.19 | COL | 93 | 92 | 46 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 22.3% | 11.7% | 8.5% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | -5.6 | 3.58 | 5.7 | 1.35 | 1.05 | 4.06 | 3.48 | TOR | 124 | 112 | 113 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 21.3% | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.9 | 3.43 | 5.75 | 3.36 | 0.89 | 3.77 | 3.35 | ARI | 95 | 96 | 92 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 18.7% | 12.5% | 4.9% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 6.2 | 3.31 | 6.14 | 1.41 | 1.07 | 3.45 | 3.99 | BOS | 113 | 98 | 89 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.6 | 2.96 | 6.95 | 3.27 | 1.01 | 2.69 | 2.72 | ANA | 88 | 87 | 87 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 8.4% |
| David Price | TOR | -1.7 | 2.99 | 7.12 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 2.9 | 2.53 | NYY | 103 | 109 | 76 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 23.8% | 9.0% | 12.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -1 | 4.15 | 5.75 | 1.32 | 1.07 | 3.98 | 3.05 | TAM | 99 | 109 | 110 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 22.5% | 8.9% | 12.7% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | -6.3 | 5.1 | 5.22 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 5.34 | 5.36 | DET | 106 | 100 | 96 | 17.1% | 9.4% | 21.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -4.4 | 3.63 | 5.81 | 1.58 | 1.03 | 3.33 | 2.93 | BAL | 87 | 83 | 66 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -0.8 | 3.25 | 6.42 | 2.72 | 0.98 | 2.98 | 4.88 | CIN | 88 | 95 | 116 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 19.0% | 13.2% | 5.3% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 4.3 | 3.47 | 5.78 | 1 | 1.05 | 3.66 | 4.5 | MIL | 88 | 91 | 93 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 21.7% | 14.7% | 5.5% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 2.4 | 4.47 | 6.24 | 0.71 | 1.01 | 5.32 | 4.13 | HOU | 110 | 100 | 114 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 19.0% | 12.8% | 9.7% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 2.3 | 4.84 | 5.7 | 1.27 | 0.89 | 4.51 | 5.35 | LOS | 112 | 106 | 84 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 19.9% | 12.3% | 7.6% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 1.9 | 3.55 | 5.29 | 0.93 | 0.98 | 2.56 | 4.77 | STL | 98 | 84 | 98 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 20.2% | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 1.6 | 4.03 | 6.13 | 1.83 | 0.88 | 3.77 | 5.19 | ATL | 80 | 78 | 63 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 22.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | -4.3 | 3.93 | 4.5 | 1.35 | 1.4 | 4.31 | 2.85 | PIT | 93 | 99 | 76 | 22.3% | 7.5% | 25.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% |
| Randy Wolf | DET | 2.4 | 4.27 | 5.02 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 3.73 | 4.89 | CHW | 91 | 76 | 111 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 23.0% | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -0.7 | 4.36 | 6.03 | 1.17 | 0.88 | 4.26 | 4.31 | NYM | 100 | 98 | 73 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 21.1% | 8.5% | 13.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.5 | 4.06 | 5.65 | 1.44 | 1.03 | 4.18 | 3.43 | WAS | 104 | 98 | 140 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 21.4% | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -5.1 | 4.09 | 5.91 | 1.89 | 1.05 | 4.33 | 5.83 | CHC | 98 | 99 | 111 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 20.1% | 14.8% | 7.2% |
Brett Anderson struck out seven in his last start. He doesn’t usually do that, and hasn’t since July 1st. He has just a 9.9 K-BB%, but you know what makes him valuable. It’s a 66.5 GB% (leads the majors by 3.8 points) and -0.6 Hard-Soft%. He has had a ground ball rate of at least 57% in 23 of his last 24 starts, and has allowed more hard contact than weak in just two of his last 14 starts. Those are the kind of things that give you confidence in using a low strikeout pitcher. It’s difficult to do a lot of damage with weak ground balls. Arizona is a slightly below average offense with a slightly above average K%, park adjusting down into a very good matchup.
Dallas Keuchel got spanked his last time out. He allowed the most fly balls (nine) that he has in a game this season and three HRs for the second time in three starts. Inspiring some confidence is that he also struck out 12 the first time he gave up three bombs, and followed up with a strong start. He still has an 18.1 K-BB% with a 61.7 GB% and -3.1 Hard-Soft% on the season. He’s been incredible at home since last season, and does face a poor Angels offense on the road, and vs LHP. They are a very good matchup with little adjustment necessary for run environment.
David Price has gone at least seven innings or more in 11 of his last 14 starts, with at least seven strikeouts in 12 of those, which all goes with excellent run prevention over that span. He has a 19.9 K-BB% this season and that increases at home since last season (22.3%), but he’s called several different places home over the last two years. Both his K% and SwStr% have increased over the last month. The Yankees are a tough matchup in a tough park, but have just a 5.8 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. They are an unfavorable matchup tonight.
Gio Gonzalez has double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three starts, with no more than two ERs allowed in any of them. He even has a 60.5 GB% over that span, after allowing more fly balls recently. True, it’s been just the Phillies, Marlins, and Braves, but you take what you can get. He has an average 13.2 K-BB% on the season, but a 15.4 K-BB% and 4.3 HR/FB at home since last season. The Orioles are a well below-average offense, both on the road, (17.2 K-BB%) and vs LHP (17.5 K-BB%), as well as being cold over the last week (16.2 K-BB%). They also lose their DH tonight in an NL park. All of this makes them a great park-adjusted matchup.
Jaime Garcia has allowed 10 ERs over 10.1 IP with five walks and just six strikeouts over his last two starts, both on the road. He returns home tonight, where he has a 17.7 K-BB% since last season. He has a 62.7 GB% with a 4.6 Hard-Soft% this season and while his K% has dropped slightly over the last month, his SwStr% has actually increased. The Reds have hit the ball well over the last week (18.8 HR/FB), but are a poor road offense and below-average vs LHP. They make for a slightly favorable park-adjusted matchup in a tough environment for power.
Jason Hammel has allowed at least three ERs in five of his last six starts and hasn’t gone more than five innings in back-to-back starts since the first week of June. The good news, is that he maintains an 18.5 K-BB% on the season, which has decreased slightly due to walk rate over the last month, but the strikeouts have remained well above- average. We’ll get into what’s going on more a little later, but he has the pleasure of facing a well below-average Milwaukee road offense (15.0 K-BB%) and also vs RHP (13.9 K%). They do have a 21.9 HR/FB over the last week, but just a 7.3 Hard-Soft% and are a favorable matchup even with a small upward bump for run environment.
John Lamb hasn’t always had good results, and has only completed six innings twice, but he has maintained a 25% strikeout rate from minors to majors this year, and those are the kind of guys you normally like taking shots with. He did walk six Cardinals two starts back, but just a total of seven in his other six starts. He has a 17.9 K-BB% and 1.0 Hard-Soft% overall. He gets the Cardinals again. They hit for little power at home (8.1 HR/FB) and are a well below-average offense vs LHP (23.5 K%, 2.9 Hard-Soft%), but have hit the ball hard over the last week (20.0 Hard-Soft%, 17.4 HR/FB). They remain a fairly favorable matchup here though, in a park that requires little overall adjustment.
Jon Niese has essentially pitched himself out of a post-season rotation spot. It’s gotten so bad that he considered three runs in six innings against the Braves in his last start a success. He gets a rematch tonight, and will try to do better, but has just a 7.9 K-BB% this season, but a more average 11.4% one at home since last season. The Braves are the third-worst offense on the road (7.8 HR/FB) and vs LHP (20.5 K%, 8.7 HR/FB, 5.6 Hard-Soft%). They have been terrible over the last week (0.0 HR/FB, 2.1 Hard-Soft%) and are, by far, the top park-adjusted matchup of the night.
Randy Wolf has allowed 14 ERs over just 11 innings with seven walks, eight strikeouts, and four HRs over his last three starts. He has a below average 8.0 K-BB% and allowed frequent hard contact (16.4 Hard-Soft%). That said, he has faced some tough offenses, and tonight he gets the second-worst one (7.3 HR/FB, 5.3 Hard-Soft%) at home for the minimum price. They are a favorable matchup, even after the upward bump for a positive run environment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Shelby Miller (.288 BABIP – 73.9 LOB% – 6.3 HR/FB) – He has just an average 12.1 K-BB% for the season and has really struggled over the last month, despite not allowing a ton of hard contact. I wouldn’t really mind using him tonight, as the Mets have gone cold, but I wouldn’t pay more than an average price.
Jhoulys Chacin (_.235 BABIP – 82.3 LOB% – 15.0 HR/FB) – He’s allowed a HR in each of his three starts, but this will be his first on the road, in a favorable run environment. He has an average K-BB%, but is still a major regression candidate.
Erik Johnson (.217 BABIP – 100.0 LOB% – 18.5 HR/FB) – All his numbers are headed for adjustment after just three starts, but he’s allowed five HRs in just 17 innings, stranding all of his other runners with a 5.6 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ubaldo Jimenez is very erratic. One can never tell what you’re going to get from him. Sometimes it’s walks, sometimes it’s strikeouts, sometimes it’s HRs, sometimes it’s a combination of those things and sometimes he’s even decent, but I don’t want to pay to find out which version we’ll get as he faces a hot offense.
Chris Archer – I’m going to do this right here and you can hate me for it, but I’m not likely to be paying up for this guy tonight. Over his last four starts, he has just about a league average 13.7 K-BB% with a 37.5 Hard-Soft%. He has a high of 6.1 innings over his last five starts. His SwStr% is in single digits in each of his last two starts, and lastly, he has a tough matchup against a good home offense in a tough park. I don’t think the odds of getting a good return are worth the price tonight.
Adam Warren did not pitch that poorly in his return to the rotation, and might even be worth a consideration at the min-price, if not for the terrible matchup in Toronto.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed just five ERs over his last four starts, but three unearned with an average 13.3 K-BB% and 19.7 Hard-Soft% despite just a 3.8 HR/FB. He’s allowed a .342 BABIP with a high strand rate (79.8%). He faces a tough team on LHP in a tough park.
A.J. Burnett – Colorado.
Jonathan Gray – Colorado.
Wily Peralta – His K% would barely crack the top 10 in SwStr%.
Jered Weaver has allowed 15 of his 21 HRs on the road and has only really pitched in unfavorable parks five times this year (including Houston once).
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all six components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.7% | 8.6% | Road | 18.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 7.0% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 21.0% | 7.1% | Road | 19.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 3.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 16.7% | 6.6% | Home | 13.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.8% | 7.9% | Road | 23.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 11.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 20.9% | 5.8% | Home | 23.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 4.9% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.8% | 4.4% | Home | 26.2% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 7.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 19.0% | 7.3% | Home | 18.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.6% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | 15.1% | 11.2% | Road | 11.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.2% | 8.6% | Home | 23.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 10.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 19.3% | 5.4% | Home | 21.6% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 23.2% | 5.9% | Home | 21.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 15.9% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 16.6% | 6.2% | Road | 12.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Diamondbacks | 14.9% | 10.1% | Road | 14.1% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 25.9% | 8.0% | Road | 28.1% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 15.4% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 16.3% | 6.4% | Home | 17.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 21.7% | 8.1% | Home | 12.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 10.0% |
| Randy Wolf | Tigers | 16.4% | 6.6% | Home | 17.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 10.8% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.4% | 9.0% | Road | 18.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.0% | 10.4% | Road | 21.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 16.4% | 7.5% | Road | 14.6% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 11.6% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 18.3% | 6.8% | RH | 20.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 6.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 17.2% | 9.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.4% | 7.6% | LH | 21.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 7.5% | RH | 17.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.8% | 7.1% | LH | 18.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 8.8% | LH | 19.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.5% |
| Rays | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | LH | 22.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.6% | 7.6% | RH | 19.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.5% | LH | 23.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.0% |
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 7.6% | LH | 20.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.0% | 6.1% | RH | 20.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.1% |
| Astros | Home | 24.1% | 8.5% | RH | 23.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 15.5% | 7.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.3% | 8.3% | RH | 20.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | LH | 23.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.5% |
| Braves | Road | 18.7% | 7.0% | LH | 20.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.8% | 7.0% | RH | 20.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.9% | 6.0% | LH | 20.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.8% |
| Mets | Home | 20.3% | 8.4% | RH | 19.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.8% | 9.4% | RH | 21.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 12.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.1% | 10.0% | RH | 24.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.9% | 10.9% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 21.0% | 10.2% | 6.8% | Road | 20.7% | 9.4% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 22.8% | 7.4% | 9.5% | Road | 23.0% | 7.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | Home | 17.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | Road | 20.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.4% | 12.1% | 11.6% | Home | 18.0% | 9.6% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 5.8% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | Home | 21.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 23.0% | 10.8% | 14.4% | Home | 23.2% | 11.4% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | 21.6% | 13.6% | 7.6% | Road | 19.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 19.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | Home | 21.1% | 4.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 17.1% | 11.0% | 4.0% | Home | 16.7% | 14.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 23.1% | 11.9% | 5.7% | Home | 23.0% | 13.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | Road | 19.3% | 11.8% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Diamondbacks | 21.1% | 13.1% | 8.1% | Road | 20.4% | 12.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 24.0% | 12.2% | 17.1% | Road | 18.6% | 21.4% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 21.7% | 11.3% | 6.7% | Home | 22.9% | 12.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 25.2% | 5.9% | 11.8% | Home | 22.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Randy Wolf | Tigers | 23.7% | 13.8% | 8.6% | Home | 21.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | Road | 16.6% | 11.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | Road | 22.8% | 13.4% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.2% | 14.1% | 8.5% | Road | 17.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 22.9% | 13.5% | 8.7% | RH | 21.2% | 14.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.8% | 15.4% | 14.0% | RH | 19.6% | 15.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.8% | 13.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | LH | 19.4% | 12.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.0% | 11.7% | 8.8% | RH | 20.6% | 10.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | LH | 18.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 16.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.1% | 12.4% | 7.7% | LH | 19.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% | LH | 20.4% | 11.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.3% | 11.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.9% | 4.6% | 9.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.8% | 12.5% | 11.5% | LH | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 10.9% | 8.5% | LH | 22.3% | 13.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | RH | 21.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 21.9% | 3.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.1% | 17.5% | 9.8% | RH | 20.0% | 14.5% | 10.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 12.1% | 6.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.0% | 13.0% | 8.8% | RH | 21.8% | 13.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | LH | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 17.4% | 4.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | LH | 21.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 0.0% | 17.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | RH | 21.3% | 10.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 9.5% | 10.7% | LH | 22.1% | 7.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 11.9% | 12.2% | RH | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.3% | 13.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 13.6% | 8.2% | RH | 20.8% | 13.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 20.3% | 5.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.7% | 13.9% | 10.4% | RH | 20.1% | 13.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.31 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 2.01 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 19.1% | 8.6% | 2.22 | 27.5% | 11.4% | 2.41 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.4% | 7.1% | 2.31 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 2.21 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.4% | 13.3% | 2.29 | 29.0% | 11.4% | 2.54 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.7% | 10.2% | 2.32 | 31.1% | 14.1% | 2.21 |
| David Price | TOR | 25.2% | 11.7% | 2.15 | 31.3% | 13.9% | 2.25 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 19.0% | 7.7% | 2.47 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.47 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 16.9% | 7.1% | 2.38 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 2.38 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 | 28.3% | 12.9% | 2.19 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.2% | 8.4% | 2.17 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 1.84 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.19 | 24.4% | 12.1% | 2.02 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.3% | 8.4% | 1.58 | 12.4% | 7.3% | 1.70 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 19.2% | 9.5% | 2.02 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 2.02 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 25.9% | 10.3% | 2.51 | 24.3% | 9.7% | 2.51 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.0% | 5.8% | 2.59 | 11.2% | 5.1% | 2.20 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 21.7% | 10.2% | 2.13 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 2.06 |
| Randy Wolf | DET | 15.9% | 6.3% | 2.52 | 15.9% | 6.3% | 2.52 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.54 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 2.34 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 12.8% | 6.8% | 1.88 | 11.5% | 4.8% | 2.40 |
Nobody? We’ve got nobody. Jered Weaver is our single blemish today and he’s got more problems than a K% that’s a little too low for expectations.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 3.15 | 3.61 | 0.46 | 3.51 | 0.36 | 3.15 | 0 | 4.35 | 3.19 | -1.16 | 2.94 | -1.41 | 3.34 | -1.01 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 3.33 | 4.03 | 0.7 | 4.04 | 0.71 | 3.7 | 0.37 | 4.63 | 2.5 | -2.13 | 2.64 | -1.99 | 3.23 | -1.4 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.35 | 3.45 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 0.15 | 3.82 | 0.47 | 2.76 | 3.16 | 0.4 | 3.13 | 0.37 | 3.66 | 0.9 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.95 | 2.88 | -0.07 | 2.84 | -0.11 | 2.69 | -0.26 | 3.99 | 3.43 | -0.56 | 3.54 | -0.45 | 3.21 | -0.78 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.56 | 2.83 | 0.27 | 2.73 | 0.17 | 2.93 | 0.37 | 3.58 | 2.41 | -1.17 | 2.45 | -1.13 | 3.88 | 0.3 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.42 | 3.29 | 0.87 | 3.25 | 0.83 | 2.8 | 0.38 | 2.48 | 2.7 | 0.22 | 2.46 | -0.02 | 2.12 | -0.36 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.94 | 4.15 | 0.21 | 4.02 | 0.08 | 3.96 | 0.02 | 1.93 | 4.02 | 2.09 | 3.89 | 1.96 | 2.8 | 0.87 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 3.71 | 5.36 | 1.65 | 5.48 | 1.77 | 6.97 | 3.26 | 3.71 | 5.36 | 1.65 | 5.48 | 1.77 | 6.97 | 3.26 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.83 | 3.77 | -0.06 | 3.59 | -0.24 | 3.12 | -0.71 | 3.71 | 3.52 | -0.19 | 3.44 | -0.27 | 3.2 | -0.51 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 2.52 | 3.41 | 0.89 | 3.41 | 0.89 | 3.09 | 0.57 | 4.5 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 3.85 | -0.65 | 2.91 | -1.59 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.73 | 3.47 | -0.26 | 3.52 | -0.21 | 3.72 | -0.01 | 5.54 | 3.85 | -1.69 | 3.79 | -1.75 | 3.99 | -1.55 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.74 | 4.86 | 0.12 | 5.09 | 0.35 | 4.76 | 0.02 | 6.35 | 5.66 | -0.69 | 6.36 | 0.01 | 5.55 | -0.8 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 2.95 | 4.09 | 1.14 | 4.04 | 1.09 | 4.56 | 1.61 | 2.95 | 4.1 | 1.15 | 4.04 | 1.09 | 4.56 | 1.61 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 5.35 | 3.55 | -1.8 | 3.64 | -1.71 | 3.77 | -1.58 | 4.91 | 3.95 | -0.96 | 4.11 | -0.8 | 3.96 | -0.95 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 4.31 | 4.29 | -0.02 | 4.12 | -0.19 | 4.48 | 0.17 | 8.77 | 5.32 | -3.45 | 4.95 | -3.82 | 5.72 | -3.05 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 5 | 3.93 | -1.07 | 3.84 | -1.16 | 3.17 | -1.83 | 6.86 | 4.08 | -2.78 | 3.91 | -2.95 | 3.34 | -3.52 |
| Randy Wolf | DET | 6.48 | 4.55 | -1.93 | 4.5 | -1.98 | 4.99 | -1.49 | 6.48 | 4.55 | -1.93 | 4.5 | -1.98 | 4.99 | -1.49 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 3 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 3.96 | 0.96 | 3.33 | 0.33 | 5.56 | 4.16 | -1.4 | 4.07 | -1.49 | 3.7 | -1.86 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.31 | 3.91 | -0.4 | 3.79 | -0.52 | 4.06 | -0.25 | 5.9 | 4.52 | -1.38 | 4.5 | -1.4 | 4.52 | -1.38 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.41 | 4.64 | 0.23 | 4.48 | 0.07 | 4.82 | 0.41 | 4.15 | 5.01 | 0.86 | 4.8 | 0.65 | 5.18 | 1.03 |
Dallas Keuchel has allowed six of his 16 HRs over his last three starts. He has gone from an 11.0 HR/FB to a 14.3 HR/FB for the season since September 1st. Even at the end of a long season, six HRs will do that when you have a fly ball rate below 20%.
David Price has just a 7.8 HR/FB, including just one HR over four home starts as a Blue Jay, and three total in nine starts since the trade, with three of those starts against the Yankees without a HR.
Jaime Garcia has seen less than a half a run difference in his ERA estimators (less than that in his FIP), but a two run difference in his ERA over the last month. His K-BB% has remained average over that time. His BABIP has gone risen to .313 (now .259 on the season) with nearly 12 point drop in strand rate to 64.8%. You’ll note that he’s not much of a candidate for a low BABIP due to poor indicators in his BABIP chart, so maybe we expected that number to rise, but he’s managed a low line drive rate with a high ground ball one. His HR rate has actually decreased, as he’s allowed just one over his last five starts. The ground ball rate has decreased below 60%, but still well above average, while the gap between hard and soft contact has remained equally low, but with a bit more of each over the last month. All of this is to suggest that his estimators are probably right (as they usually are). He’s a solid, but not great pitcher when healthy.
Jason Hammel does have ERA estimators a bit higher over the last month, but his actual ERA has soared. The strikeout rate is the same, and that’s the good news. The walk rate has climbed nearly four points, while the same can be said of his hard contact rate. That’s a pretty terrible combination, in which his LD rate has soared with his BABIP jumping up 40 points over the last month. His LOB% has dropped, but his HR rate, which was a bit high to begin with, has actually remained stable. So while the strikeouts are good and important, there have been control and contact related declines that call for adjustments.
John Lamb has allowed a .396 BABIP. His 24.4 LD% is a little high, but he’s generated seven pop ups in seven starts and otherwise generates a ton of weak contact with an extremely low rate of contact in the strike zone (Z-Contact%). He’s a league average pitcher at worst with a deserved BABIP adjustment.
Randy Wolf isn’t good, and probably only has a couple of starts left to his major league career. I won’t try to justify any of his numbers here, and the only value in him today is that he’s facing the second-worst offense vs LHP at the minimum price. His BABIP is high, his HR rate is high, but he’s a well past his prime pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact. What do you expect? Maybe a slightly better than 65.1 LOB%?
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.303 | 0.339 | 0.036 | 9.3% | 91.1% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.301 | 0.279 | -0.022 | 10.3% | 86.5% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.296 | 0.307 | 0.011 | 2.1% | 92.6% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.282 | 0.290 | 0.008 | 7.0% | 83.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.283 | 0.271 | -0.012 | 12.5% | 89.5% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.282 | 0.294 | 0.012 | 11.2% | 81.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.306 | 0.288 | -0.018 | 14.4% | 88.9% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 0.313 | 0.217 | -0.096 | 3.7% | 85.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.305 | 0.341 | 0.036 | 2.5% | 86.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.296 | 0.259 | -0.037 | 4.4% | 90.2% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.292 | 0.284 | -0.008 | 3.7% | 85.5% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.286 | 0.275 | -0.011 | 13.8% | 84.7% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 0.294 | 0.235 | -0.059 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.292 | 0.396 | 0.104 | 17.1% | 81.8% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.287 | 0.301 | 0.014 | 5.1% | 92.4% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 0.315 | 0.376 | 0.061 | 11.8% | 86.8% |
| Randy Wolf | DET | 0.303 | 0.370 | 0.067 | 7.4% | 92.4% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.307 | 0.288 | -0.019 | 8.5% | 87.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.296 | 0.312 | 0.016 | 12.4% | 88.8% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.302 | 0.314 | 0.012 | 7.0% | 92.4% |
Gio Gonzalez – I’ve been calling his BABIP a defensive tax for most of the season, as he generates a lot of ground balls (54.1%) with normal hard contact and LD rates. He doesn’t generate a lot of pop ups at all, but that shouldn’t lead to a .341 BABIP.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
John Lamb (4) did walk six Cardinals the last time he faced them, but also struck out six, and they are a terrible team vs LHP. He won’t last as long as some of the bigger names today, but you have the potential for one of the top strikeout rates while he’s in there, for nearly half the price. He’s even still at the minimum price on some of the smaller sites.
Value Tier Two – We’re essentially combining two tiers here until we get to break even with these three pitchers. They probably don’t even make up a tier as much as a ladder before with small spaces in between, in my mind at least.
Brett Anderson (5t) – I actually don’t rate him as highly as I have with an average price tag, he just ends up higher because I don’t feel like there’s a lot of overall value in today’s price tags. You’re going to get weak ground balls without a lot of strikeouts in a favorable spot at home. It’s a low ceiling, but a generally reliable floor because he’s very difficult to elevate (the most difficult in the league, in fact).
Dallas Keuchel (1) is showing a glimpse of some red flags, but with limited options and a maintained K% for the most part, we’re probably going to have to continue to roll with him in a good matchup, even if the recent HR barrage doesn’t make us feel as confident as we would have two weeks ago.
Gio Gonzalez (3) – More strikeouts with ground balls now, and potentially one of the highest strikeout rates of the day against a strikeout-prone team that’s bad against LHP, (and on the road) without a DH. The price of baseball has increased here, though.
Value Tier Three – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable, and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either, or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
David Price (2) – It’s a tough matchup in a tough environment, but he’s been up to the task three times against the Yankees since being traded to Toronto. I’m not sure I would call those performances worth more than an elite price tag though.
Jon Niese is a lefty, pitching against the Braves at home. That alone makes him almost worth his price tag, which is good, because there’s not much else positive to say.
Jaime Garcia (5t) has struggled recently, but is generally very good at home vs a poor road offense. His price tag (especially on DraftKings) leaves little room for error with a below-average strikeout rate though.
Jason Hammel has struggled with control and contact authority, but is still striking out a quarter of the batters he faces, and is in a good spot to succeed tonight. You’d just like to feel confident he’ll get six innings in, though.
Randy Wolf is a lefty, pitching against the White Sox at home. That alone makes him almost worth his price tag, which is good, because there’s not much else positive to say. (See what I did there?)
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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