Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, September 28th
As we embark upon the final week of the baseball season, this will be the last article on a short slate. This will also be the last time I’ll have the privilege of writing about today’s pitchers this year. I feel like the 80’s hair band Europe should be playing the Final Countdown all week. I’m going to miss writing about some of these pitchers, but now that I look at this list probably not most of them. Like a great season finale to your favorite drama, it’s going to hurt to say goodbye to Kershaw the most, but that comes later in the week.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 1.6 | 3.17 | 5. | 2.42 | 1.03 | 3.46 | 3.23 | WAS | 100 | 104 | 66 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 20.6% | 23.6% | 9.5% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 6.2 | 4.43 | 5.82 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 4.22 | 4.97 | TOR | 106 | 114 | 147 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 20.7% | 12.0% | 12.6% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.7 | 4.35 | 6.1 | 0.76 | 1.08 | 4.52 | 4.92 | DET | 103 | 99 | 76 | 18.5% | 5.9% | 22.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 1.5 | 2.79 | 6.91 | 1.38 | 0.94 | 2.87 | 2.74 | MIN | 79 | 89 | 100 | 24.3% | 6.3% | 21.6% | 13.4% | 11.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -1.7 | 4.2 | 5.76 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 4.1 | 3.79 | NYY | 105 | 106 | 90 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 21.7% | 10.1% | 12.1% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | -5.1 | 4.64 | 5.04 | 1.12 | 0.91 | 4.38 | 4.5 | ANA | 103 | 88 | 125 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 21.2% | 13.7% | 8.4% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.9 | 4.46 | 5.28 | 0.58 | 0.91 | 4.86 | 7.59 | OAK | 93 | 96 | 109 | 18.0% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 12.3% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -5.4 | 4.54 | 5.45 | 1.58 | 1.02 | 5.21 | 3.68 | BOS | 86 | 98 | 80 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 23.3% | 8.7% | 11.4% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -3.1 | 3.91 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.91 | 3.77 | 2.7 | STL | 92 | 84 | 132 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 23.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.3 | 4.17 | 6.14 | 0.9 | 0.87 | 4.43 | 3.26 | LOS | 102 | 105 | 103 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.7 | 4.07 | 6.53 | 0.88 | 1.08 | 3.88 | 3.71 | TEX | 103 | 98 | 123 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 20.8% | 8.8% | 11.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.3 | 3.68 | 5.77 | 1.73 | 1.05 | 3.27 | 1.7 | KAN | 95 | 102 | 96 | 22.0% | 5.0% | 22.1% | 16.0% | 8.8% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.3 | 3.87 | 5.95 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 3.78 | 5.47 | PIT | 103 | 100 | 115 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 22.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.5 | 3.62 | 5.71 | 1.46 | 0.85 | 3.97 | 3.14 | SEA | 105 | 100 | 105 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 21.7% | 14.2% | 9.5% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.2 | 4.28 | 6. | 0.63 | 1.04 | 4.63 | 5.54 | BAL | 107 | 101 | 39 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% | 12.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -4.5 | 2.87 | 6.75 | 0.82 | 1.03 | 3.2 | 3.17 | CIN | 87 | 91 | 79 | 25.3% | 5.9% | 20.5% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 3 | 3.69 | 6.35 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 3.58 | 3.18 | CLE | 111 | 98 | 87 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 21.0% | 9.8% | 12.3% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | -4.8 | 4.05 | 5.73 | 1.3 | 0.85 | 4.04 | 4.39 | HOU | 92 | 105 | 138 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 20.8% | 10.9% | 8.4% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 6.9 | 3.85 | 5.86 | 1.7 | 1.05 | 4.07 | 3.75 | CHC | 97 | 98 | 82 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 23.0% | 9.7% | 12.4% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.7 | 3.06 | 6.6 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 3.07 | 3.41 | SFO | 113 | 108 | 134 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 7.4% |
Corey Kluber hasn’t gotten past four innings in either of his last two starts, while allowing six ERs and a 34.7 Hard-Soft%, but striking out 11 of 37 batters since returning from a short injury hiatus. The good news is that after a dip in his first start back, his velocity was back up closer to his season rate in his most recent one. Although his ERA is over a run higher (and his estimators are up by about a half a run), his 22.9 K-BB% and 26.9 Hard% are exactly the same as last season. The difference is in 5% more fly balls at the expense of ground balls and 50% more HRs. He gets Minnesota for the second consecutive start, but they are a much different offense on the road. The Twins are the second-worst road offense in baseball (15.8 K-BB%, 9.1 HR/FB) and below average vs RHP (15.0 K-BB%). They park adjust down to today’s top matchup.
J.A. Happ allowed three ERs in his last start. It was the most runs he’d allowed in a start since his first after the trade. It was also in Colorado and he had eight strikeouts. He’s struck out at least eight in four straight starts. The only knock against him since the trade is that he’s only gone more than six innings once. His 23.0 K-BB% with the team would be top five stuff over the full season. The Cardinals are below average on the road (14.2 K-BB%), but flat out terrible vs LHP (23.5 K%, 3.1 Hard-Soft%). They are a very favorable opponent after a downward shift for the negative run environment.
Jake Peavy has allowed just three ERs over his last 19 innings and is now pitching some of his best ball of the season 17 starts in. His 12.1 K-BB% is about average and below career rates, but both his K% and SwStr% are up to nearly league average over the last month and he’s been able to successfully limit hard contact this season (6.2 Hard-Soft%). He has allowed just three HRs in his spacious home park, which should help him against a tough Dodgers offense (12.9 HR/FB on the road, 13.4 HR/FB vs RHP). They are a favorable matchup after a negative park adjustment.
Kyle Hendricks has an ERA well below his estimators with the gap widening even further over the last month. He has allowed at least three ERs in 10 of his last 12 starts, though never more than five and only that twice. He has 13 Ks and no BBs over his last 37 batters and has raised his SwStr% (and K%) significantly over the last month. He has an impressive 15.6 K-BB% this season (and the same 15.5 K-BB% at home since last season), while managing contact well (6.8 Hard-Soft%). He doesn’t go particularly deep into games though (fewer than seven innings in nine straight starts). The Royals have just a 16.9 K% on the road and 16.2 K% vs RHP, but lose their DH today, don’t walk much, and are below average on the road. They have a 23.8 K% and 6.1 HR/FB over the last week and are only a slightly unfavorable matchup after a positive park adjustment.
Lance McCullers has combined a well above average K% with an average BB% for a 16.3 K-BB%. He’s allowed three of his eight HRs over his last two starts, but struck out nine without a walk last time he took the mound and gets a great park tonight as he travels to Seattle. The Mariners are not an easy offense and hit the ball hard (12.7 HR/FB at home, 12.9 HR/FB and 15.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but have a 23.1 K% at home and park adjust down to a very favorable matchup.
Phil Hughes threw five shutout innings with four strikeouts in his last start. That’s slightly significant because he’s been so terrible and unable to miss bats this season. We’ll talk about it not necessarily matching up with his SwStr% later, but it’s an improvement none the less. A velocity drop below 90 mph is concerning as is a matchup with a tough Cleveland home offense (9.2 K-BB%), but they are just average vs RHP and park adjust down into a slightly favorable opponent in this spot.
Yordano Ventura has struggled in his last four starts after striking out 11 in back to back starts four weeks ago. His 13.2 K-BB% on the season is about average, but he’s allowed a bit more hard contact than you’d like to see (15.2 Hard-Soft%) and while you’d expect his park and defense to bail him out often, that really hasn’t been the case (.314 BABIP, 11.8 HR/FB), though a low fly ball rate (27.1%) slightly misrepresents the high HR rate. He has just a 9.0 K-BB% and 12.1 HR/FB on the road since last season and has neutral park adjusted matchup against a team with power (13.5 HR/FB at home, 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but also strikes out a ton (23.9 K% both at home and vs RHP).
Zack Greinke missed his last start due to a calf issue. If we look at the entire body of work, we see an ERA still much lower than his estimators, but that’s not going to change at this point and the underlying numbers still point to a great season with an 18.9 K-BB% and 5.7 Hard-Soft%. While his K% has dipped just below average over the last month, it’s comforting to see that the SwStr% has remained consistent. He faces a great offense. If you look at the chart above, they compare favorably with Toronto, but play in a terrible park (7.9 HR/FB at home), which really makes them a neutral matchup here.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Marco Estrada (.223 BABIP – 79.1 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – Although he has a low career rate (.263), that BABIP speaks for itself and he’s never had a single digit HR/FB in a season, something you wouldn’t actually suspect Toronto would suddenly create.
Hector Santiago (.254 BABIP – 82.2 LOB% – 10.1 HR/FB) – He has allowed two or fewer ERs in three of his last four starts after a rough August. He has walked at least five in two of those three starts and stranded them all. He’s also allowed the second-hardest rate of contact of any pitcher today (17.1 Hard-Soft%).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Roenis Elias does miss bats, but and you’d think that would automatically qualify him for a look against the Astros, but he also has occasional issues with control and you’ll notice below that the Astros don’t strike out at absurd rates on the road or vs LHP. He does have a low ERA over the last month because he hasn’t allowed a HR in five starts and pitches in a great park, but Houston has been hitting the ball well (20.3 HR/FB over the last week) and hammers LHP for a 14.5 HR/FB.
Lance Lynn has a 0.0 K-BB% over the last month and really just an average 13.4 K-BB% for the season. He has been propped up by a low HR rate at home and though he’s pitching in another power suppressing park, his inability to miss bats over the last month, while walking a double digit rate of batters is very concerning in a neutral matchup.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed just six ERs over his last 23.1 innings despite a .352 BABIP due to an 83.8 LOB% and 3.6 HR/FB. It’s not that he’s necessarily bad, but that he’s probably unlikely to exceed his price tag in a tough spot.
Justin Verlander looked like he was back in the month of August, then had a few setbacks, and now has struck out 15 of 58 batters while allowing five ERs over his last 15.2 innings. The truth is that it’s difficult to project him right now. Though his 14.4 K-BB% and 5.1 Hard-Soft% are both better than average, his price has climbed quickly and he’s in a difficult spot in Texas against a team that strikes out at a below average rate and walks at an above average one.
Felix Doubront actually has a respectable SwStr% over the last month without his K% matching up. He is just getting pummeled though, allowing at least three runs in six innings or less in all five starts with seven HRs. The other interesting thing (aside from the SwStr%) is that he has just a 4.4 Hard-Soft% over this run to go along with the 20.0 HR/FB and 26.7 LD%, although I can’t figure out how one accomplishes this and makes me suspect potential classification errors.
Colby Lewis has allowed a total of four ERs over his last 21 innings, but with just 10 strikeouts. His SwStr% is a bit more optimistic, but he’s exceeded four strikeouts in just two of his last 10 starts and has an 18.7 Hard-Soft% this year.
Ivan Nova pitched well against Toronto, of all teams, in his last start, but has been flat out terrible otherwise (6.7 K-BB%).
Chris Tillman has allowed at least three runs in less than seven innings in each of his last seven starts and has a 7.7 K-BB% on the season. That’s a streak that’s unlikely to stop against Toronto.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 25.8% | 10.1% | Road | 23.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 8.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 16.9% | 8.0% | Home | 17.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 11.8% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 16.9% | 5.6% | Home | 16.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.9% | 5.1% | Home | 26.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 5.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 18.8% | 7.3% | Road | 20.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.8% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 15.4% | 8.6% | Road | 14.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 7.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.5% | 9.5% | Home | 21.5% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 18.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 14.4% | 7.3% | Home | 11.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 20.1% | 6.8% | Home | 20.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 6.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.3% | 6.9% | Home | 16.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.1% | 6.8% | Road | 19.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 19.3% | 5.5% | Home | 20.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 21.8% | 8.5% | Road | 22.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 24.5% | 8.3% | Road | 22.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 5.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 19.3% | 7.4% | Road | 19.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 9.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.7% | 5.4% | Home | 28.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 5.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 18.6% | 2.1% | Road | 19.3% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 2.5% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 20.5% | 9.0% | Home | 21.6% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 16.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.8% | 8.6% | Road | 18.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 5.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 24.5% | 4.8% | Road | 23.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 21.0% | 9.4% | LH | 21.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.5% | 9.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 13.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.2% | RH | 20.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Road | 22.7% | 7.1% | RH | 21.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 8.7% | LH | 19.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.9% |
| Angels | Home | 19.8% | 7.3% | LH | 18.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 4.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 7.8% | LH | 17.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 14.0% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | RH | 17.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.1% | 7.9% | LH | 23.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.9% | 10.0% | RH | 20.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 8.6% | RH | 18.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Royals | Road | 16.9% | 5.6% | RH | 16.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.9% | 7.3% | RH | 20.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.1% | 8.1% | RH | 21.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 7.0% | RH | 22.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Road | 20.2% | 7.5% | RH | 19.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.7% | 3.1% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.4% | RH | 18.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.8% |
| Astros | Road | 22.1% | 7.4% | LH | 21.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 9.9% | RH | 23.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 18.4% | 7.8% | RH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 19.8% | 26.9% | 15.4% | Road | 19.4% | 30.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 20.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | Home | 21.2% | 7.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 21.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | Home | 21.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 21.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | Home | 20.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 23.1% | 10.9% | 13.4% | Road | 22.7% | 9.8% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 21.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | Road | 23.6% | 8.3% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 25.0% | 4.2% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 17.9% | 9.3% | 11.5% | Home | 17.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 4.8% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 19.6% | 15.0% | 8.8% | Home | 23.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | Home | 21.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | Home | 20.8% | 6.5% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.9% | 6.9% | 12.0% | Road | 23.1% | 7.3% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 4.5% | 18.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 21.1% | 9.9% | 10.8% | Home | 20.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.3% | 6.8% | 10.2% | Road | 22.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 21.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | Road | 22.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 16.8% | 10.3% | 12.0% | Road | 16.9% | 11.6% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | Home | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 23.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | Road | 24.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 19.9% | 10.4% | 10.0% | Home | 21.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 21.0% | 10.6% | 8.2% | Road | 23.1% | 12.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 21.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | Road | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 13.1% | 8.2% | LH | 20.8% | 14.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.6% | 14.1% | 13.7% | RH | 19.8% | 15.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.6% | 11.1% | 7.5% | RH | 21.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.2% | 10.3% |
| Twins | Road | 19.6% | 9.1% | 11.2% | RH | 20.8% | 10.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.1% | 14.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.8% | 13.9% | 13.0% | LH | 19.7% | 11.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.5% | 15.6% |
| Angels | Home | 20.4% | 12.2% | 9.7% | LH | 18.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | LH | 18.8% | 8.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 12.9% | 6.8% | 12.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.7% | 9.8% | 11.4% | RH | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.8% | 9.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | LH | 19.7% | 10.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.3% | 11.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 12.9% | 10.5% | RH | 21.7% | 13.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.8% | 12.3% | 8.6% | RH | 19.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.8% | 10.8% | 6.2% |
| Royals | Road | 22.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | RH | 21.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.1% | 10.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.8% | 11.6% | 5.3% | RH | 21.2% | 10.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 12.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.2% | 12.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 18.0% | 12.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.5% | 16.2% | 8.1% | RH | 20.6% | 15.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.4% | 13.0% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Indians | Home | 23.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| Astros | Road | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.5% | LH | 19.8% | 14.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 20.3% | 8.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.1% | 13.5% | 10.2% | RH | 20.4% | 13.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Giants | Home | 20.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 14.5% | 7.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 24.0% | 10.2% | 2.35 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 2.45 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.23 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 2.77 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.02 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 1.55 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.7% | 13.0% | 2.13 | 27.0% | 14.7% | 1.84 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 18.8% | 7.9% | 2.38 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.28 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 1.58 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.9% | 8.3% | 2.52 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 2.21 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 14.6% | 7.4% | 1.97 | 14.4% | 8.5% | 1.69 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 20.7% | 8.0% | 2.59 | 30.0% | 11.0% | 2.73 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.8% | 8.0% | 2.23 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.16 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.04 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 2.26 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 21.5% | 7.9% | 2.72 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 2.48 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.4% | 9.1% | 2.46 | 12.3% | 6.2% | 1.98 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 24.5% | 9.7% | 2.53 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 2.61 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.84 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 1.77 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.6% | 15.1% | 1.96 | 28.9% | 15.7% | 1.84 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.5% | 5.6% | 2.59 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 3.13 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 | 26.9% | 10.7% | 2.51 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 21.6% | 10.3% | 2.10 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 2.00 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 23.5% | 12.0% | 1.96 | 19.4% | 12.0% | 1.62 |
It’s nice to see that nobody today shows up as an outlier for the season. When players do present as outliers, they usually end up conforming sooner or later. We’ll find very few pitchers per year (and maybe even none this year) whose K% doesn’t match up with their SwStr% after about 150 innings or so under their belt.
Phil Hughes – Although it’s just 10 innings and his SwStr% doesn’t match up, he has struck out over 20% of the batters he’s faced since returning and his SwStr% is at least more respectable. He had a double digit SwStr% in his last start for just the third time this year.
Zack Greinke – It was already mentioned that he’s maintained his SwStr% despite the K% drop. His 9.3 SwStr% in his last start was his lowest since the same mark on July 31st, nine starts back.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 3.65 | 3.59 | -0.06 | 3.54 | -0.11 | 5.12 | 1.47 | 4.97 | 2.88 | -2.09 | 2.66 | -2.31 | 5.83 | 0.86 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.16 | 4.68 | -0.48 | 4.58 | -0.58 | 4.49 | -0.67 | 8.39 | 4.59 | -3.8 | 4.55 | -3.84 | 5.22 | -3.17 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.36 | 4.47 | 0.11 | 4.66 | 0.3 | 4.22 | -0.14 | 4.26 | 4.94 | 0.68 | 4.84 | 0.58 | 3.75 | -0.51 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.55 | 2.96 | -0.59 | 3 | -0.55 | 2.96 | -0.59 | 5.27 | 3.39 | -1.88 | 3.38 | -1.89 | 5.78 | 0.51 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.97 | 4.2 | 0.23 | 4.1 | 0.13 | 4.04 | 0.07 | 2.31 | 4.01 | 1.7 | 4.15 | 1.84 | 2.94 | 0.63 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 5.53 | 4.31 | -1.22 | 4.29 | -1.24 | 4.38 | -1.15 | 8.33 | 4.68 | -3.65 | 4.62 | -3.71 | 6.08 | -2.25 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.47 | 4.53 | 1.06 | 5 | 1.53 | 4.75 | 1.28 | 5.91 | 6.79 | 0.88 | 7.11 | 1.2 | 7.18 | 1.27 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 4.87 | 4.68 | -0.19 | 4.67 | -0.2 | 4.72 | -0.15 | 6.05 | 4.45 | -1.6 | 4.42 | -1.63 | 5.58 | -0.47 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 3.88 | 3.88 | 0 | 3.76 | -0.12 | 3.52 | -0.36 | 2.43 | 2.64 | 0.21 | 2.62 | 0.19 | 2 | -0.43 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 3.83 | 4.29 | 0.46 | 4.43 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 0.07 | 2.97 | 3.95 | 0.98 | 4.22 | 1.25 | 3.64 | 0.67 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.49 | 4.07 | 0.58 | 4.26 | 0.77 | 3.59 | 0.1 | 3.57 | 4.17 | 0.6 | 4.38 | 0.81 | 3.15 | -0.42 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.23 | 3.51 | -0.72 | 3.39 | -0.84 | 3.55 | -0.68 | 4.91 | 3.18 | -1.73 | 3.1 | -1.81 | 3.7 | -1.21 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.16 | 4.01 | 0.85 | 3.94 | 0.78 | 3.5 | 0.34 | 4.38 | 5.49 | 1.11 | 5.11 | 0.73 | 4.73 | 0.35 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.22 | 3.61 | 0.39 | 3.55 | 0.33 | 3.18 | -0.04 | 3.48 | 3.87 | 0.39 | 3.78 | 0.3 | 4.12 | 0.64 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.13 | 4.72 | 1.59 | 5 | 1.87 | 4.39 | 1.26 | 2.84 | 5.67 | 2.83 | 5.72 | 2.88 | 5.71 | 2.87 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.98 | 2.77 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 0.07 | 2.97 | -0.01 | 3.76 | 2.8 | -0.96 | 3.05 | -0.71 | 4.03 | 0.27 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.43 | 4.4 | -0.03 | 4.33 | -0.1 | 4.72 | 0.29 | 3.6 | 3.18 | -0.42 | 3.58 | -0.02 | 3.25 | -0.35 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 3.94 | 4.19 | 0.25 | 4.29 | 0.35 | 4.2 | 0.26 | 2.91 | 4.15 | 1.24 | 4.08 | 1.17 | 3.38 | 0.47 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.4 | 3.8 | -0.6 | 3.73 | -0.67 | 3.77 | -0.63 | 4.34 | 3.32 | -1.02 | 3.31 | -1.03 | 3.49 | -0.85 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.65 | 3.31 | 1.66 | 3.27 | 1.62 | 2.77 | 1.12 | 1.91 | 3.72 | 1.81 | 3.66 | 1.75 | 3.57 | 1.66 |
Corey Kluber – A 70.5 LOB% is a little low for someone with such a high strikeout rate and the HR rate is a little higher than you’d expect in a good park, but nothing is too out of line, which is probably why his ERA is only about a half a run from his estimators. Things are a little different over the last month, where he’s only pitched 13.2 innings due to injury and allowed a lot of hard contact, but retained his high strikeout rate.
Jake Peavy has pitched a bit better over the last month, but also has just a .218 BABIP. His 0.0 Hard-Soft% and 14.3 LD% support a low BABIP, along with a 14.9 IFFB% over this span, but one that low is never sustainable.
Kyle Hendricks has a 13.0 HR/FB, but has not allowed one in his last four home starts, and just a 69.1 LOB%. Over the last month, he has an 18.8 HR/FB, although all three HRs allowed came in one start in Pittsburgh. He also has just a 63.4 LOB% over his last five starts with an 18.3 K-BB%.
Yordano Ventura has an ERA well above his estimators, which has remained steady over the last month even as his estimators have dropped even further. Part of the reason for the gap is a high BABIP (.314 on the season, .357 over the last month). His indicators, including his LD%, are all fairly ordinary and although he generates a lot of ground balls, he doesn’t generate a lot of weak contact. More interestingly, over the last month, he has a 59.0 GB% and just a 5.0 Hard-Soft%, but 25.0 LD%. So, you have a guy who throws gas in a power suppressing (but run enhancing) environment with a great defense. He should be a stud on a team where three of the other four guys with 100+ innings are beating their estimators, right? (PS – The only other one who is not is named Jeremy Guthrie.)
Zack Greinke has had a fine season, so this will be the last time we’ll mention a .231 BABIP, 68 points below his career average and 35 points lower than his previous career low, which was his rookie year. This is the last time we’ll point out an 86.6 LOB% that’s more than 10 points higher than his career average and 5 points higher than his previous career high. Lastly, although it’s not that obscene, his 7.1 HR/FB is the second-lowest rate of his career. He has been generating some of the weakest contact he ever has over a full season though. His 21.5 Soft% and 5.7 Hard-Soft% are both the second-best marks of his career.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosen and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.295 | 0.213 | -0.082 | 13.6% | 85.7% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.296 | 0.295 | -0.001 | 14.1% | 88.1% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 8.3% | 90.3% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.291 | 0.298 | 0.007 | 7.9% | 85.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.304 | 0.287 | -0.017 | 13.4% | 88.8% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 0.289 | 0.336 | 0.047 | 10.7% | 85.6% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.285 | 0.254 | -0.031 | 11.2% | 85.9% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.299 | 0.284 | -0.015 | 10.6% | 91.6% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.304 | 0.321 | 0.017 | 12.7% | 86.8% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.285 | 0.274 | -0.011 | 9.8% | 91.0% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.300 | 0.263 | -0.037 | 13.1% | 85.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.291 | 0.303 | 0.012 | 8.4% | 89.9% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.297 | 0.316 | 0.019 | 9.8% | 87.1% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.005 | 10.1% | 89.3% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.280 | 0.223 | -0.057 | 10.6% | 82.4% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.303 | 0.277 | -0.026 | 12.4% | 79.4% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.301 | 0.304 | 0.003 | 11.2% | 92.1% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 0.297 | 0.278 | -0.019 | 9.8% | 85.3% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.286 | 0.314 | 0.028 | 8.4% | 88.5% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.299 | 0.231 | -0.068 | 9.2% | 84.6% |
Max Scherzer – His .277 BABIP isn’t really that low, it’s just low for Washington. You could say it’s a bit low for him too though, as he’s only had one other season below .297 (.259 in 2013), but his indicators (IFFB, Z-Contact) are amazing along with an 18.8 LD%.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Note: This is clearly a very difficult day. Our two top overall pitchers have injury concerns and pretty much everyone else has flat out concerns. We can call it a potentially highly volatile day, which might make you consider favoring GPPs over cash games.
Value Tier One
Kyle Hendricks (3) because somebody has to be at the top. His underlying numbers are much better than his ERA. The major drawbacks today are that he doesn’t go deep into games and faces a low strikeout team. The good news is that adding a pitcher in place of a DH might give him an extra one (strikeout) and hurt a below average road offense even further. The price tag is average to a bit below.
Corey Kluber (1) – I don’t know what to do here. This is a good spot, although he struggled against this same team in his last outing. There’s a difference between them home and road, though that’s not the real concern here. We may have to just bite the bullet and take solace in the maintenance of elite SwStr and K rates since he’s returned.
Value Tier Two
J.A. Happ (4) is actually the pitcher with the least concern today, unless you consider the first seven and a half years of his career. He’s still carrying an average price tag and faces a well below average offense vs LHP in a great park for suppressing RH power. I’d suspect his trip to Colorado last time out helped keep his price very reasonable and a lot of casual players may not realize how bad St Louis is vs LHP. Then again, I’d suspect they also just look at his ERA since the trade and expect to see a lot of him in lineups tonight. The fact that you’re very unlikely to get more than six innings out of him keeps him out of the top tier though.
Value Tier Three
Lance McCullers (5) doesn’t particularly have a great matchup, but the park tilts it in his favor. The Mariners will strike out, but also hit the ball hard and don’t show a significant drop in power at home, thought I’d expect the cooler weather would suppress it slightly more. While he has flashed great stuff, he hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in the world and this matchup isn’t concern free at an above average cost.
Zack Greinke (2) is another difficult pitcher to project. He’s facing a very tough offense in a great park. That should enhance his ability to prevent runs and keep the ball in the yard, though he doesn’t seem to have a problem with those things. They strike out at a below average rate and we’re left to ponder the state of his health. Is he still injured? How long will Mattingly let him go after not pitching in 10 days? Maybe they don’t care because he’s opting out at the end of the season and they want home field in the first round. Maybe they do care because they are going to re-sign him anyway. He also happens to be ridiculously expensive tonight.
Yordano Ventura (6) hasn’t been pitching well and might serve up a bomb (or even two), but could see an increase in his K% too.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Phil Hughes – The pure numbers want to push him up to the second tier, but I think they’re over-valuing his K% over the last 10 innings and consider he’s back to pitching like last season without considering the still low SwStr% enough or the drop in velocity at all.
Jake Peavy has been pitching better, including more strikeouts, and isn’t in a bad spot at home (nobody is really ever in a bad spot in San Francisco no matter who the opponent is) at a mid-range price.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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