Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, April 12th
Today features what I consider the most exciting matchup of the season so far. Jose Fernandez faces Noah Syndergaard for the first time in a matchup that could feature between 25 to 30 strikeouts and is likely to have some heavy daily fantasy ownership numbers on both sides. In fact, I could end today’s article right there. Take those two guys. Don’t even look at anybody else. Not good enough? I’ll expand on it. But no, seriously….those two guys.
New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated over the weekend, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so we’ll give it a few more days before searching for another avenue.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.83 | 6.08 | 2.91 | 1.05 | 4.14 | 1.9 | NYY | 112 | 168 | 148 | |
| Charlie Morton | PHI | 3.86 | 5.79 | 2.54 | 1.01 | 3.77 | 5.07 | SDG | 142 | 75 | 97 | |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3.82 | 6.16 | 1.4 | 1.07 | 3.27 | 5.38 | BAL | 154 | 161 | 145 | |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.79 | 6.97 | 1.39 | 0.94 | 2.78 | 4.48 | TAM | 102 | 97 | 105 | |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 4.18 | 6.13 | 1.1 | 0.85 | 4.66 | 4.15 | SEA | 62 | 89 | 119 | |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.65 | 5.75 | 1.62 | 1.03 | 3.4 | ATL | 74 | 13 | 58 | ||
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 4.43 | 5.29 | 0.58 | 0.93 | 5.01 | 3.44 | OAK | 68 | 90 | 78 | |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.64 | 6.64 | 1.26 | 1.4 | 4.45 | 4.2 | COL | 91 | 135 | 99 | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 4.63 | 5.8 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 4.32 | WAS | 113 | 84 | 96 | ||
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.49 | 6.06 | 1.26 | 0.88 | 2.44 | 0.81 | NYM | 48 | 46 | 46 | |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.28 | 5.5 | 1.88 | 0.93 | 4.54 | 2.96 | ANA | 123 | 70 | 82 | |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 4.28 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.01 | 4.96 | HOU | 211 | 129 | 132 | ||
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.11 | 6.56 | 1.49 | 1.05 | 3.15 | 3.19 | TOR | 102 | 92 | 89 | |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 4.59 | 5.23 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 4.54 | 3.63 | CLE | 87 | 85 | 91 | |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.62 | 5.98 | 0.83 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 4.93 | KAN | 115 | 76 | 92 | |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 5.28 | 4.58 | 0.88 | 1.07 | 6.32 | BOS | 118 | 114 | 123 | ||
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.9 | 6.24 | 1.4 | 0.88 | 2.83 | 1.88 | FLA | 120 | 98 | 110 | |
| Robbie Erlin | SDG | 4.04 | 5.32 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 3.66 | 3.51 | PHI | 67 | 24 | 76 | |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 3.66 | 6.02 | 2.33 | 1.4 | 2.7 | SFO | 112 | 102 | 100 | ||
| Wade Miley | SEA | 3.94 | 6.05 | 1.69 | 0.85 | 3.6 | 2.64 | TEX | 102 | 88 | 88 |
Corey Kluber did not pitch well in his first start. Depending on where you look, Fangraphs has his velocity down a mph, while Brooks Baseball does not. Otherwise, a look under the hood doesn’t hold much against him. He generated a double digit SwStr% and only allowed 20% hard contact with an even mix of grounders and flies plus five line drives. I did notice swing rates against him were down. It may have just been that he faced a decent, well-disciplined opponent in the Red Sox. I won’t move off him yet in a decent matchup in a good park.
Gio Gonzalez has not pitched yet this season. Last year he sacrificed missing bats to generate ground balls at a career high rate (53.8% in 2015, 47.7% career). He went into the All Star break with a league average 20.5 K% and 57.8 GB%. That did not work because the Nationals could not turn ground balls into outs. His 3.99 ERA was a half run higher than his estimators. In the 2nd half (particularly September – 29.8 K%) he had a 24.4 K% and 49.1 GB%, which was still above his career rate. He also had a 3.56 ERA that matched his xFIP. If he could keep that up, it would be good. Atlanta is supposed to be a cake walk, but tell Max Scherzer that.
Hector Santiago is usually someone I’m immediately telling you not to even let near any of the other pitchers, but he can miss a few bats at somewhere close to a league average rate. It’s the hard contact and walks that makes him not good. However, the offense he faces has also been very not good and Oakland is a great park for such an extreme fly ball pitcher with a career 11.5 IFFB% to pitch in.
Jose Fernandez struck out 13 of the 23 Tigers he faced. The other 10 batters managed to score five runs despite only two hard hit balls (there were four line drives however). Of the 106 pitches he threw, 17 were swinging strikes. He’s obviously not going to strike out more than half the batters he faces, but yeah, that’ll do just fine. The Mets have come off as possibly the coldest offense in the league. They’ll be better, but right now they’re not. Naturally, expect the Mets to jump on him for five more in the first inning.
Kendall Graveman was a pitcher I was asked about omitting frequently last year, but he never flashed the upside he showed in March of 2015 during the actual season. He struck out just 15.3% of batters with a solid ground ball rate, but 13.9 HR/FB. It’s way too early to say that anything has changed, but the velocity is up around a mile per hour and he missed a few more bats against the White Sox with 16 of 22 batters either striking out or keeping it on the ground and very little hard contact. What’s the difference between him and Sanchez today, who easily has more in his arm? Park and opposition with a slightly lower cost.
Matt Moore will probably be the 95 mph flame thrower he was when he was first called up. Remember when he was right there with Trout and Harper in prospect talk? He is up a mile per hour in his first start to 93 though and that’s great news as he survived the Blue Jays as a LHP, generating 11 swinging strikes. Despite a lot of hard contact (it was the Blue Jays), he kept half of it on the ground. It looks like something to build off and his .332 BABIP from last season should improve. He has a decent matchup at home against Cleveland today. However, this was a very patient offense last year and control has been a major issue for him.
Noah Syndergaard throws as hard on average as the hardest throwing relievers and then adds a 95 mph slider. Don’t believe it? Read “(classname)this(title tooltip)”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/noah-syndergaard-is-aroldis-chapman-now and just watch what he did to Kendrys Morales last week. Statcast has a leaderboard on MLB.com this year and if you look at the pitcher section, his sinker is nearly a mph harder (98.6) than the next hardest pitch on average and the only other sinker on the list is his closer, Familia. The perceived velocity on the pitch was 100.2 mph in his first start. Those are not highs. Those are averages! He generated 16 swings and misses in his first start. Again, he did this against the Royals, which is like 30 swinging strikes against most teams. I will now boldly predict that the only young Mets pitcher to hold up his end through the first week and a half will throw at least one no-hitter this season.
Robbie Erlin has failed to retain his swing and miss stuff from the low minors as he’s moved through the system and eventually to the majors, while the contact has been a bit too hard for comfort as well. He has retained excellent control though. He faced 12 Rockies in relief in Colorado, only allowing one base runner over the weekend. I wouldn’t even mention him if not for the Phillies today, who have struck out in 40.5% of just 37 PAs vs LHP so far.
Wade Miley became interesting in 2014 when he started missing more bats, but his ERA actually rose a run despite his FIP remaining unchanged (3.98 in both 2013 and 2014). Then he didn’t miss bats again and was a disaster in his one year in Boston, although, again with slightly better peripherals. Now, he may become interesting again in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. He allowed five runs to this same Texas team in his first start on the road, but struck out seven of 25 batters with 13 swinging strikes and just three hard hit balls (including one HR). Texas does not platoon their LHBs as they normally just balance their lineup throughout no matter who’s pitching. Miley has held LHBs to a .297 wOBA career.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Aaron Sanchez dominated Tampa Bay, striking out eight, generating 10 ground balls, and perhaps most impressively, not walking a single one of the 25 batters he faced, all while averaging over 95 mph on his fastball all the way through. Importantly, “(classname)he kept the ball down(title tooltip)”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-sanchez-aced-his-test. That’s a fantastic start. I want to see him doing it again because this is a guy with a double digit walk rate at almost every stop of his professional career and now comes home to face the Yankees off the best outing of his career. I can easily see this burning me with a lot of people jumping on board because he is a very talented arm, but I’d rather be burned by missing out than taking another Matz. (Yes, taking a Matz is what I’m going to call your high upside daily fantasy pitcher getting blown out of the water for a few days.) But the good news is his first start did look real.
Clay Buchholz did not pitch well in his first start. He struggled to throw strikes and his velocity was down about a mile per hour. That could have been a weather thing in Cleveland, but this a guy with a history of injuries and I want to make sure he’s healthy before backing him at a non-insignificant price. This is a matchup where he may generate some strikeouts, but faces a team with power who could also tattoo him if he’s off again.
Derek Holland stunk last year and was very mediocre in his first start. The good news is he generated 10 swinging strikes. The bad, he had a 50.0 Hard-Soft%. He gets a park upgrade tonight, but a difficult lineup and costs too much for a pitcher who hasn’t been either healthy or good in a couple of years now.
Jhoulys Chacin pitched just a few major league innings last year and allowed four HRs in 111 batters faced with a 25.0 Hard-Soft% and it really hasn’t been much better since 2010.
Kris Medlen I was really borderline on today, but we have enough goodness and speculators that we don’t need to take this risk. He seemed to pitch well at times last season after returning from TJS, but something was missing. The Astros have struck out a ton so far, but are crushing the baseballs they do make contact with.
Masahiro Tanaka is a little too HR prone in a matchup against the Blue Jays. While we’re never going to be looking much at pitchers in Colorado, we can probably also say the same for opponents of Toronto and Kansas City most days, but for different reasons. He’s a little cheaper on FanDuel, but why choose him over Syndergaard for the same cost on DraftKings? (Unless the game is rained out and even then it’s a toss up.)
Mike Fiers allowed two HRs plus eight line drives with 55% of the contact he allowed being of the hard variety against the Yankees, while generating few swings and misses. Not that he’s really that bad, but I’ve been skeptical of his results in the past and Kansas is a different kind of difficult today.
Mike Wright had his first game rained out. The Orioles are probably hoping that happens quite frequently.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.3% | 10.1% | Home | 15.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Phillies | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.2% | Home | 18.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.9% | 6.8% | Home | 23.0% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.0% | 5.2% | Road | 29.3% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 5.8% | Road | 15.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 9.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.9% | Home | 22.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.2% | Road | 19.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.4% | 5.1% | Road | 16.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Braves | L2 Years | 16.5% | 9.9% | Road | 18.4% | 13.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.6% | 5.8% | Road | 32.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 56.5% | 4.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.2% | Home | 13.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | L2 Years | 16.5% | 7.4% | Road | 14.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.8% | 4.3% | Road | 23.3% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 17.3% | 8.3% | Home | 18.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 8.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 24.5% | 7.7% | Home | 24.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Years | 12.8% | 8.8% | Road | 14.8% | 11.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.0% | 5.1% | Home | 27.1% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 4.4% |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | L2 Years | 16.1% | 5.4% | Road | 14.8% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 6.2% | Home | L14 Days | 10.7% | 0.0% | ||
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.2% | Home | 19.2% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 0.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 18.4% | 10.5% | RH | 16.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 10.3% |
| Padres | Road | 18.2% | 8.2% | RH | 24.4% | 4.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 37.5% | 10.0% | RH | 21.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.7% | 4.3% | RH | 25.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.3% | 7.5% | LH | 20.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.1% |
| Braves | Road | 16.7% | 8.3% | LH | 24.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.2% | 6.1% | LH | 25.3% | 3.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 19.0% | 11.2% | RH | 12.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 15.8% | RH | 20.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 13.5% |
| Mets | Home | 23.8% | 9.1% | RH | 24.6% | 10.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.9% |
| Angels | Road | 21.1% | 7.9% | RH | 16.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.3% |
| Astros | Home | 20.0% | 7.5% | RH | 26.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.7% | 9.1% | RH | 28.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.6% |
| Indians | Road | 24.7% | 5.5% | LH | 27.2% | 5.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Road | 13.2% | 2.6% | RH | 21.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 19.5% | 9.8% | RH | 23.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 8.9% | RH | 18.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 27.3% | 3.0% | LH | 40.5% | 5.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.2% |
| Giants | Road | 9.5% | 9.5% | RH | 12.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 14.9% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.9% | 6.8% | LH | 27.8% | 5.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.2% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 2016 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 4.0% | Home | 23.2% | 17.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 25.0% | 5.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.3% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2016 | 31.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | Home | 28.0% | 11.9% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.5% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 2016 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 4.5% | Home | 26.0% | 5.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 20.0% | 21.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 2016 | 27.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | Road | 28.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 33.4% | 10.4% | 19.2% | 2016 | 34.6% | 10.4% | 22.5% | Road | 43.0% | 17.9% | 31.6% | L14 Days | 57.1% | 16.7% | 50.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 2016 | 28.7% | 6.6% | 9.9% | Home | 27.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 32.0% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 2016 | 33.6% | 9.4% | 18.4% | Road | 35.1% | 11.8% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 20.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 25.9% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 2016 | 27.0% | 11.0% | 8.3% | Road | 25.9% | 9.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 25.0% | 5.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Braves | L2 Years | 38.4% | 12.6% | 23.1% | 2016 | 38.8% | 12.6% | 25.0% | Road | 61.5% | 16.7% | 50.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 2016 | 29.4% | 9.0% | 11.2% | Road | 34.2% | 8.3% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.9% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 2016 | 28.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | Home | 33.0% | 14.7% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 33.3% | -11.8% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | L2 Years | 27.3% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 2016 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 6.5% | Road | 22.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.8% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 2016 | 31.1% | 15.7% | 11.8% | Road | 27.5% | 13.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 33.3% | 5.9% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 2016 | 31.7% | 12.0% | 9.7% | Home | 32.6% | 14.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 25.0% | 7.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.2% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 2016 | 33.5% | 10.9% | 13.7% | Home | 36.6% | 15.6% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 55.0% | 25.0% | 35.0% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.7% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 2016 | 29.7% | 13.6% | 16.8% | Road | 34.4% | 10.7% | 27.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 24.3% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 2016 | 24.6% | 14.0% | 4.7% | Home | 21.6% | 13.7% | -3.6% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | -15.4% |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.8% | 9.6% | 17.4% | 2016 | 36.5% | 9.6% | 17.3% | Road | 36.4% | 9.1% | 22.8% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.5% | 19.0% | 17.9% | 2016 | 19.0% | Home | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% | -4.2% | |||||
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2016 | 24.7% | 11.5% | 6.5% | Home | 27.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% | -5.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 28.3% | 10.5% | 15.1% | RH | 32.4% | 21.6% | 19.8% | L7Days | 30.4% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| Padres | Road | 43.1% | 21.2% | 36.6% | RH | 34.6% | 12.9% | 21.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 15.6% | 24.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 40.0% | 25.0% | 15.0% | RH | 38.2% | 20.0% | 16.2% | L7Days | 34.7% | 23.3% | 12.1% |
| Rays | Home | 30.7% | 17.1% | 9.9% | RH | 28.2% | 18.8% | 4.6% | L7Days | 31.5% | 18.8% | 15.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 27.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | LH | 22.1% | 21.4% | 3.5% | L7Days | 30.0% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| Braves | Road | 37.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% | LH | 25.7% | 0.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.8% | 2.5% | 10.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.8% | 2.5% | 8.0% | LH | 25.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 28.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 33.3% | 26.9% | 22.2% | RH | 41.1% | 31.0% | 27.4% | L7Days | 38.9% | 29.5% | 25.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 29.5% | 6.1% | 14.1% | RH | 29.8% | 8.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 28.3% | 4.4% | 14.1% |
| Mets | Home | 27.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | RH | 29.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% |
| Angels | Road | 26.9% | 11.1% | -7.7% | RH | 30.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | L7Days | 27.5% | 4.7% | -0.6% |
| Astros | Home | 48.3% | 12.5% | 38.0% | RH | 37.7% | 24.0% | 18.9% | L7Days | 37.2% | 22.8% | 17.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 35.1% | 20.0% | 24.3% | RH | 30.8% | 13.5% | 14.6% | L7Days | 32.2% | 13.2% | 14.0% |
| Indians | Road | 29.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | LH | 27.4% | 10.0% | -3.3% | L7Days | 31.9% | 11.8% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Road | 12.5% | 6.7% | -9.4% | RH | 20.5% | 4.9% | -4.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.1% | -6.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 13.8% | 7.7% | 0.0% | RH | 28.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.3% | 10.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 27.6% | 11.1% | -1.1% | RH | 24.8% | 4.9% | -2.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.9% | -2.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 17.4% | 0.0% | 4.4% | LH | 35.0% | 14.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 28.1% | 12.0% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Road | 45.7% | 18.2% | 29.7% | RH | 38.1% | 17.3% | 20.1% | L7Days | 32.0% | 16.4% | 11.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.6% | 7.3% | 13.4% | LH | 27.1% | 11.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 16.1% | 7.0% | 2.30 | 32.0% | 15.4% | 2.08 |
| Charlie Morton | PHI | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.19 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 2.23 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 22.8% | 10.6% | 2.15 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.25 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.7% | 12.9% | 2.15 | 18.5% | 11.5% | 1.61 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 16.7% | 6.9% | 2.42 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.18 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.3% | 9.8% | 2.28 | |||
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.9% | 8.5% | 2.46 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 3.07 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 17.9% | 9.8% | 1.83 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 3.79 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 18.9% | 8.9% | 2.12 | |||
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 29.8% | 13.3% | 2.24 | 56.5% | 16.0% | 3.53 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.3% | 7.6% | 2.01 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 16.5% | 8.6% | 1.92 | |||
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.00 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 1.98 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.68 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 2.42 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 23.7% | 9.8% | 2.42 | 13.0% | 7.3% | 1.78 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 12.8% | 7.3% | 1.75 | |||
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 27.5% | 12.2% | 2.25 | 39.1% | 17.4% | 2.25 |
| Robbie Erlin | SDG | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.88 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 1.37 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 10.7% | 9.0% | 1.19 | |||
| Wade Miley | SEA | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.13 | 28.0% | 14.3% | 1.96 |
We’re still using 2015 numbers a bit long until just about every pitcher has made a couple of starts, but also using this year’s stats in the “L30 Days” column. As mentioned, we’re showing just starting pitcher league averages in the header information now, which drops K% and SwStr% just slightly from the overall average that includes relievers.
Matt Moore only threw 63 innings last year, but we can already see the signs of a potentially useful K% even in his 2015 SwStr%, which he built on in his first start.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.22 | 4.43 | 1.21 | 4.27 | 1.05 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 1.29 | 1.9 | 0.61 | 1.9 | 0.61 | 2.78 | 1.49 |
| Charlie Morton | PHI | 4.81 | 3.89 | -0.92 | 3.87 | -0.94 | 4.19 | -0.62 | 14.73 | 5.07 | -9.66 | 5.06 | -9.67 | 6.76 | -7.97 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3.26 | 3.35 | 0.09 | 3.3 | 0.04 | 2.68 | -0.58 | 11.25 | 5.38 | -5.87 | 5.59 | -5.66 | 6.71 | -4.54 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.49 | 2.98 | -0.51 | 3.05 | -0.44 | 2.97 | -0.52 | 6.75 | 4.48 | -2.27 | 4.69 | -2.06 | 4.9 | -1.85 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 4.91 | 4.43 | -0.48 | 4.45 | -0.46 | 5.3 | 0.39 | 5.4 | 4.15 | -1.25 | 4.45 | -0.95 | 5.01 | -0.39 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.79 | 3.77 | -0.02 | 3.59 | -0.2 | 3.05 | -0.74 | |||||||
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.59 | 4.5 | 0.91 | 5 | 1.41 | 4.77 | 1.18 | 3 | 3.44 | 0.44 | 3.86 | 0.86 | 4.05 | 1.05 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.96 | 4.18 | -0.78 | 4.31 | -0.65 | 4.23 | -0.73 | 5.06 | 4.2 | -0.86 | 3.92 | -1.14 | 5.09 | 0.03 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 3.38 | 4.28 | 0.9 | 4.12 | 0.74 | 4.63 | 1.25 | |||||||
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.92 | 2.77 | -0.15 | 2.62 | -0.3 | 2.24 | -0.68 | 7.94 | 0.81 | -7.13 | 0.05 | -7.89 | 1.45 | -6.49 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.05 | 4.43 | 0.38 | 4.3 | 0.25 | 4.6 | 0.55 | 3.38 | 2.96 | -0.42 | 3.23 | -0.15 | 4.71 | 1.33 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 4.01 | 4.28 | 0.27 | 4.31 | 0.3 | 4.13 | 0.12 | |||||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.51 | 3.36 | -0.15 | 3.29 | -0.22 | 3.98 | 0.47 | 3.18 | 3.19 | 0.01 | 3.23 | 0.05 | 4.62 | 1.44 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 5.43 | 4.67 | -0.76 | 4.81 | -0.62 | 4.82 | -0.61 | 5.4 | 3.63 | -1.77 | 3.97 | -1.43 | 5.21 | -0.19 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.69 | 3.84 | 0.15 | 4.04 | 0.35 | 4.03 | 0.34 | 9 | 4.93 | -4.07 | 4.73 | -4.27 | 7.21 | -1.79 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 6.04 | 5.28 | -0.76 | 5.7 | -0.34 | 6.13 | 0.09 | |||||||
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.24 | 2.95 | -0.29 | 2.91 | -0.33 | 3.25 | 0.01 | 0 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Robbie Erlin | SDG | 4.76 | 3.94 | -0.82 | 3.7 | -1.06 | 3.25 | -1.51 | 0 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 2.12 | 2.12 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.42 | 2.7 | 1.28 | 3.54 | 2.12 | 2.74 | 1.32 | |||||||
| Wade Miley | SEA | 4.46 | 4.24 | -0.22 | 4.08 | -0.38 | 3.81 | -0.65 | 7.5 | 2.64 | -4.86 | 2.58 | -4.92 | 3.05 | -4.45 |
Most of these larger discrepancies we either want nothing to do with or are had small sample sizes due to injury or other factors last season.
Hector Santiago – I must warn you again that he is not good. His .252 BABIP, his 79.9 LOB%, both unsustainable. However, he has now beaten his estimators by over a run over 538.2 career innings. That’s beyond Chris Young territory. It will come back on him and even began to last season with a 5.47 ERA after the All Star break.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.316 | 0.247 | -0.069 | 0.178 | 6.9% | 90.7% |
| Charlie Morton | PHI | 0.266 | 0.309 | 0.043 | 0.212 | 9.2% | 91.9% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.295 | 0.329 | 0.034 | 0.211 | 7.9% | 86.9% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.260 | 0.297 | 0.037 | 0.217 | 7.8% | 85.9% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.271 | 0.281 | 0.01 | 0.229 | 7.9% | 92.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.298 | 0.341 | 0.043 | 0.195 | 4.4% | 86.2% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.301 | 0.252 | -0.049 | 0.165 | 11.0% | 85.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.319 | 0.303 | -0.016 | 0.212 | 10.1% | 87.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 0.325 | 0.263 | -0.062 | 0.192 | 3.8% | 92.2% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.328 | 0.343 | 0.015 | 0.287 | 7.7% | 84.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.252 | 0.302 | 0.05 | 0.214 | 4.6% | 92.4% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 0.333 | 0.282 | -0.051 | 0.171 | 10.0% | 89.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.336 | 0.242 | -0.094 | 0.192 | 9.5% | 87.1% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.296 | 0.332 | 0.036 | 0.221 | 13.9% | 87.5% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.317 | 0.283 | -0.034 | 0.203 | 12.7% | 84.9% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.296 | 0.295 | -0.001 | 0.195 | 9.1% | 88.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.327 | 0.279 | -0.048 | 0.199 | 10.5% | 85.0% |
| Robbie Erlin | SDG | 0.330 | 0.294 | -0.036 | 0.255 | 14.3% | 94.4% |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.395 | |||||
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.296 | 0.307 | 0.011 | 0.208 | 7.0% | 90.0% |
Don’t pay much attention to this year’s Team BABIP yet. The sample is way too small. Pitcher numbers are still from 2015.
It seems we’ve mentioned most of the important BABIPs already today, although there wasn’t much to say.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we normally rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re still just talking a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016. We may get into the tier stuff a bit more after this week.
Corey Kluber wasn’t good in his first outing and his price jumped approximately 50%. Maybe it was an Opening Day suck you in type thing. As stated earlier, it’s ridiculous to give up on him as everything under the hood looked to be in order, but it’s tough to load up on him at that price. In fact, he may make for an interesting contrarian play in a few lineups with most of the action going towards the game in New York.
Gio Gonzalez was an interesting arm late in the season. I know they tell you (you know, they) never to believe September numbers, but he’s in what should be a great spot against a team that was terrible vs LHP last year at a reasonable price. It’s more reasonable on DraftKings, though the Win, which he is favored to get, is more important on FanDuel. That might be the last time I use the W word for a few months.
Hector Santiago hasn’t gotten any better since I told you he wasn’t good just a few minutes ago (for you, but about an hour or two for me) above, but still does have the same matchup against the A’s in Oakland at a low price.
Jose Fernandez will likely be the 2nd most owned pitcher on DraftKings only because he’s $1.5K more than the guy he’s facing of equal talent. On FanDuel, they’re evenly priced and likely to be evenly split, but there’s a decent enough chance this game is decided by the bullpens with neither of them getting that evil word stat.
Kendall Graveman is really the only pitcher on the bottom of the board I would look at today. The rock bottom price tag in what should be a good spot makes him slightly interesting along with what he showed in his first start. Switch uniforms and price tags with Aaron Sanchez today though and he (Sanchez) would be the more interesting one.
Matt Moore has great differential in his price tag today, which obviously makes him more interesting where he’s one of the cheaper arms on FanDuel. He’s always been a huge potential guy and showed promising signs in his first start. The biggest drawback today is concern over Cleveland being very patient and generating a few walks. At the very least, that would drive his pitch count up and knock him out before the 7th inning.
Noah Syndergaard will throw a no-hitter tonight and will probably easily be the most highly owned pitcher on DraftKings tonight. I will likely be among those owners unless something weird happens with my internet. All of the Rotogrinders articles should feature a picture of Syndergaard today.
Robby Erlin – I’m trying to remember why he even bothered to mention him today. Oh yeah, the Phillies. I don’t think I’d use him on DraftKings without strikeout upside at $7.1K though.
Wade Miley is sneaky secondary pitcher tonight. I think he can get you 20 DK points in this spot quite frequently. Unfortunately, his DraftKings price already seems to reflect that and FanDuel only spots one pitcher. He’s not the worst contrarian GPP play you could make on single pitcher sites if you want to stack bats in Colorado though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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