Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, July 1st
It’s inevitable that someone is going to express their shock that we’re already into the fourth month of the baseball season, so why not let that person be me? Maybe it just seems like it’s jumped upon us even quicker than usual because the season started a week later this year, but none the less here we are. If you’ve survived the first three months of the grind and are still with us, congratulations, we’re halfway home. As your reward, I present to you some really mediocre pitching tonight.
We’re skipping the day games entirely today with the early start. The first games will likely be under way by the time this article is published.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -5.5 | 3.57 | 6.36 | 2.06 | 1.05 | 3.96 | 3.16 | DET | 111 | 105 | 123 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 22.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -2.4 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 3.92 | 3.54 | MIL | 79 | 84 | 104 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 21.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 12.9 | 4.74 | 5.35 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 4.85 | 6.1 | CLE | 94 | 101 | 112 | 17.4% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 5.1 | 4.23 | 6.13 | 1.44 | 1.05 | 3.91 | 5.36 | PIT | 83 | 93 | 96 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 20.1% | 9.9% | 6.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 1.2 | 3.83 | 6.3 | 1.01 | 0.88 | 3.63 | 4.17 | CHC | 99 | 90 | 68 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 21.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 5.7 | 3.24 | 5.74 | 3.35 | 1.09 | 3.03 | 2.83 | ARI | 92 | 97 | 100 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -5.1 | 2.79 | 6.04 | 1.71 | 0.94 | 2.87 | 3.05 | TAM | 105 | 93 | 59 | 23.8% | 5.4% | 20.1% | 10.7% | 7.9% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.5 | 3.37 | 5.95 | 2.46 | 1.01 | 3.42 | 3.76 | FLA | 83 | 80 | 52 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 23.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 5.2 | 3.69 | 5.9 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 4.02 | 3.59 | SFO | 114 | 112 | 143 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 21.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | -3.4 | 4 | 6.4 | 1.52 | 0.98 | 4.44 | 4.21 | ATL | 93 | 92 | 64 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 21.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 12.4 | 4.23 | 5.85 | 1.53 | 1.01 | 3.97 | 5.34 | HOU | 107 | 106 | 87 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 19.0% | 11.9% | 11.4% |
| John Lackey | STL | 5.7 | 3.76 | 6.54 | 1.24 | 0.98 | 3.35 | 4.9 | CHW | 81 | 84 | 90 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 5.4 | 3.37 | 6.59 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 3.28 | 4.18 | NYM | 100 | 99 | 55 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 21.6% | 11.6% | 16.5% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -12 | 3.6 | 6.25 | 1.28 | 0.98 | 3.71 | 3.9 | STL | 109 | 88 | 91 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 22.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | -3.4 | 4.1 | 6.19 | 0.99 | 1.01 | 4.28 | 4.49 | PHI | 80 | 74 | 77 | 17.1% | 5.5% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 1.9 | 3.41 | 5.86 | 1 | 0.91 | 3.28 | 4.74 | NYY | 87 | 108 | 79 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 11.8% | 7.6% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | -2.1 | 5.48 | 6. | 0.94 | 0.98 | 5.24 | 5.48 | WAS | 105 | 102 | 100 | 12.9% | 4.2% | 20.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -5.2 | 4.07 | 5.88 | 1.41 | 0.91 | 3.94 | 3.85 | ANA | 104 | 95 | 93 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 21.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.7 | 5.07 | 5.62 | 0.88 | 1.04 | 5.03 | 5.93 | BAL | 113 | 104 | 114 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 24.2% | 13.5% | 9.0% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.4 | 4.38 | 5.18 | 0.83 | 1.09 | 4.75 | 3.15 | LOS | 104 | 96 | 109 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 20.7% | 10.9% | 6.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | -3.9 | 4.79 | 4.78 | 0.37 | 1.01 | 4.69 | 4.67 | KAN | 98 | 103 | 88 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 22.5% | 6.5% | 11.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 5.1 | 3.82 | 6.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 3.61 | 3.73 | TEX | 92 | 85 | 122 | 20.9% | 6.3% | 19.9% | 18.1% | 11.0% |
A.J. Burnett is 3rd in the NL in ERA and has rebounded from his imprisonment in Philadelphia quite nicely even if his estimators are a run higher. He’s throwing more sinkers, more strikes, and more first pitch strikes, which has led to the lowest walk rate of his career, while his strikeout rate is right at his 21.6% career mark. The Tigers represent the 2nd toughest park adjusted matchup of the day though and have hit the ball hard (16.8 Hard-Soft%) over the last week.
Aaron Harang has allowed at least four ERs in each of his last five starts and seven HRs over that span. Impressively though, he’s failed to complete six innings only once in 16 starts and that was only be a single out. Milwaukee has hit the ball extremely hard over the last week (19.0 Hard-Soft%) with just a 17.0 K%, but are still the 4th worst road offense and tied for 3rd worst against RHP.
Bartolo Colon is an interesting case. He throws tons of strikes and is very hittable at times if he isn’t getting calls or his control is just a little bit off and he can’t hit the corners for strikes. In that case, the Cubs can tee off on him. They haven’t been hitting at all lately though (no HRs in over a week) and when he is on and/or getting the strikes on the black, he might be able to rack up the strikeouts tonight against a very prone offense. Either way you might know by the first inning, but unfortunately not before. The Cubs have a 24.1 road K% and 24.9 K% vs RHP. They are the first of a group of very closely rated top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Brett Anderson has been an affordable go to guy on these weak days that he always seems to pitch on. He’s had a great season and has the 2nd best ERA estimators on the main chart above just behind Carrasco tonight. He’s also coming off a season high 10 strikeout performance. Though Arizona is merely league average against LHP, they have hit the ball hard (14.5 Hard-Soft%) vs southpaws and reside in the toughest offensive park on the board tonight, but I generally don’t worry about the park with Anderson due to his elite ground ball rate (68.7% this year) and a 4.0 Hard-Soft% this season. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but just enough to make him worthwhile for daily fantasy purposes.
Carlos Carrasco is your upside today. Though the ERA doesn’t match up, he has the top ERA estimators on the main chart above and probably represents the top projected K and K-BB rates tonight. He has at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts with a 20.2 K-BB% over the last two calendar years that’s virtually the same at home or on the road. There are some issues with hard contact, which we’ll discuss later. The Rays haven’t been a bad home offense, but have been ice cold over the last week (25.8 K%) and park adjust nicely.
Chris Heston has provided another affordable alternative or compliment to Anderson on a lot of these days. He has pitched very well for the Giants with a 14.6 K-BB% that’s better than league average (15.9% on the road) and a 2.45 GB/FB. He does have a 15.6 HR/FB on the road, but two of his starts have been in Colorado where most of that damage was done. He has otherwise managed contact exceptionally well with a 4.5 Hard-Soft%. The Marlins represent another of the top matchups who actually gain slightly in the park adjustment. They are the 3rd worst home offense and 2nd worst vs RHP and have been ice cold over the last week with a 25.9 K%.
Dan Haren allowed more than three ERs for only the 3rd time in his last start, but struck out six of the 26 batters he faced without a walk and only allowed seven base runners. His ERA has dropped more in line with his estimators over the last month, but we still have a lot to talk about below. The Giants don’t hit the ball particularly hard (8.1 Hard-Soft% on the season and 3.2% over the last week), but have been terror against RHP (2nd best offense, 17.6 K%) on the road (top offense, 23.7 LD%) this year and today’s top offense over the last week. They represent the day’s toughest matchup in a nearly neutral park.
Doug Fister was one of the pitcher’s most likely to disappoint this season considering he beat his estimators by about a run and a half last season and that’s exactly what’s happened this year. Pitch to contact is not such a great idea when your defense is bad and a spike in harder contact from a 6.8 Hard-Soft% to 16.1% this season makes it much worse with just a 6.2 K-BB%. We don’t expect strikeouts, which is great, because Atlanta has just a 16.9 K% vs RHP, but they don’t hit the ball hard (6.0 Hard-Soft% for the season) and that’s been every worse without Freeman (-5.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week). They have just a 7.2 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. A slight park adjustment makes them an even more favorable matchup very unlikely to do much damage.
John Lackey doesn’t have the best peripherals over his last two starts (4.90 SIERA), but has greatly managed contact (-11.4 Hard-Soft%) and kept runs off the board (three ERs in 14 innings). He has acclimated himself to the St Louis way, using the big park to his advantage. Only one of his seven HRs this year has come at home (17.1 K-BB% since last season). The White Sox are a bad offense on the road and vs RHP with just a 4.6 Hard-Soft% overall on the season. What I failed to recognize yesterday is that they also lose one of their top offensive players in NL parks.
Jose Quintana must look comfortable after Chris Sale, but is still a tough matchup and while the Cardinals have a strong home offense, they struggle vs LHP (24.5 K%, 0.2 Hard-Soft%). Their 7.9 HR/FB at home nearly matches Quintana’s 7.4 HR/FB over the last two calendar years. What’s really seemed to hurt Quintana this year is Chicago’s terrible defense.
Kyle Lohse has allowed 19 HRs and only gone two starts without one. That’s about the sum of it along with his 35.9 Hard%. Only seven of those HRs have come on the road in seven starts, two of which occurred in Cincinnati and Colorado with four HRs. He’s allowed three HRs in the five power suppressing parks he’s pitched in and he actually has a 9.1 HR/FB on the road since last season. Philadelphia is not such a park, but they don’t really have a team that can hit the ball hard with just a 7.0 HR/FB vs RHP and 9.3 HR/FB vs RHP. Their 4.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP is actually higher than their overall 2.8% mark. The Phillies are the 2nd worst home offense and worst vs RHP, with very little adjustment for park making them one of the top matchups tonight.
Matt Shoemaker seems to have solved his HR problems. He’s only allowed two of his 15 over his last 6 starts in which he’s allowed more than two ERs just twice. His Hard% dropped under 30% for the first month in June. He has struck out just four of his last 46 batters, but has a strong 18.2 K-BB% at home since the start of his career. The Yankees have the 3rd best offense vs RHP, but don’t hit very well away from home. They have a 13.7 HR/FB against righties, but we have to consider that a factor of Yankee Stadium. The park adjusts the offense down to a favorable matchup.
Nathan Eovaldi has gone six innings with two ERs allowed in each of his last two starts. In fact, it’s the first time he’s gone at least six innings in consecutive starts this season. His estimators aren’t terrible this year and he’s not in a bad spot tonight against an Angels team that might not even know who he is because they reject your stats and information. Or maybe they just have bad players. It depends who you listen to. Either way, they’re a basically neutral offense that park adjusts well for the pitcher.
Wei-Yin Chen has at least five strikeouts without allowing more than two ERs in each of his last four starts. You generally worry about him at home where he has a 12.2 HR/FB since last season, but he has managed contact well this season (2.3 Hard-Soft%) and the Rangers line up extremely left-handed through the middle of the order, which explains their struggles with LHP this season, whom they strike out 24.1% against. They do have a 19.7 HR/FB over the last week, led by “(player-popup)Mitch Moreland”:/players/mitch-moreland-10354’s four HRs over the last two nights, but he’s one of those lefties we talked about.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Edinson Volquez (.255 BABIP – 71.8 LOB% – 5.7 HR/FB) – Some of these numbers are not even worth quibbling with due to the great situation (park and defense) he often finds himself in this year. Today, however, is not such a case and where we might see a blow up and HR/FB adjustment from one half his career rate.
Robbie Ray (.252 BABIP – 79.6 LOB% – 4.7 HR/FB)
Vincent Velasquez (.314 BABIP – 75.2 LOB% – 3.3 HR/FB) – His 23.4 K% is fine, but the 13.4 BB% is scary if that HR rate kicks in.
Nick Martinez (.288 BABIP – 76.3 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB) – None of these numbers are really offensive, but a 4.8 K-BB% certainly is and is essentially useless for daily fantasy purposes.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matthew Wisler has struck out just two of his first 51 major league batters.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 21.8% | 8.8% | Road | 19.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 4.9% |
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 17.6% | 7.7% | Home | 20.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 3.6% |
| Alex Colome | Rays | 15.0% | 9.1% | Home | 14.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.8% | 7.4% | Home | 16.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 17.5% | 3.5% | Home | 19.5% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 3.9% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.8% | 7.1% | Road | 20.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 7.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 25.7% | 5.5% | Road | 25.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 1.8% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 20.4% | 6.4% | Road | 19.9% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 2.1% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.0% | 4.8% | Home | 17.6% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 15.1% | 4.7% | Road | 11.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 2.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.4% | 8.8% | Road | 18.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.1% | 5.6% | Home | 22.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.1% | 6.0% | Road | 23.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 16.7% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.1% | 6.3% | Road | 19.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 3.6% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 16.8% | 5.3% | Road | 16.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.1% | 4.9% | Home | 23.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 6.5% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 3.9% | 0.0% | Home | 6.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.6% | 6.3% | Road | 16.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 5.2% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 12.8% | 8.7% | Road | 12.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 6.8% | 11.9% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 16.9% | 7.2% | Home | 14.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 4.2% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 23.2% | 13.4% | Home | 19.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 11.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.1% | 5.5% | Home | 18.8% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 7.4% | RH | 19.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.6% | 5.4% | RH | 21.0% | 5.9% | L7Days | 17.0% | 5.8% |
| Indians | Road | 17.8% | 8.4% | RH | 19.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.7% | 6.3% | RH | 20.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.1% | 8.3% | RH | 24.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.7% | 8.3% | LH | 20.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.8% |
| Rays | Home | 22.5% | 7.4% | RH | 21.2% | 7.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 5.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.4% | 6.5% | RH | 20.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.9% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Road | 18.4% | 7.4% | RH | 17.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Home | 17.7% | 8.6% | RH | 16.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 4.4% |
| Astros | Home | 25.5% | 9.5% | RH | 25.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.3% | 5.6% | RH | 19.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.6% |
| Mets | Home | 19.0% | 8.7% | LH | 23.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.9% | 8.9% | LH | 24.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.9% | 6.3% | RH | 18.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 8.2% | RH | 18.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 8.6% | RH | 20.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.0% |
| Angels | Home | 20.3% | 7.6% | RH | 19.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 6.8% | RH | 22.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.4% | 5.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.3% | 10.4% | LH | 20.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Road | 17.1% | 5.2% | RH | 15.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.1% | 7.3% | LH | 24.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.6% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% | Road | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | Home | 21.2% | 5.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Colome | Rays | 24.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | Home | 21.0% | 12.5% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | Home | 20.1% | 11.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | Home | 20.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 14.7% | 10.2% | 4.5% | Road | 11.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 19.7% | 9.1% | 6.1% | Road | 20.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 24.3% | 9.5% | 14.3% | Road | 26.2% | 15.6% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | Home | 18.9% | 9.1% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 5.6% | 16.7% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 19.7% | 10.3% | 5.8% | Road | 18.9% | 11.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.1% | 9.5% | 5.7% | Road | 19.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 7.1% | 21.4% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.3% | 10.7% | 13.0% | Home | 23.0% | 4.7% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.3% | 7.6% | 13.0% | Road | 20.5% | 12.1% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | Road | 22.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 20.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | Road | 20.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 19.3% | 11.4% | 6.7% | Home | 19.0% | 11.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 7.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 22.2% | 5.6% | 11.1% | Home | 12.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | Road | 24.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 21.4% | 8.1% | 11.2% | Road | 21.6% | 7.4% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 23.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | Home | 23.6% | 9.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 21.2% | 3.3% | 13.3% | Home | 23.5% | 5.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.2% | 12.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | Home | 22.3% | 12.8% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 40.0% | 20.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 22.1% | 8.7% | 10.7% | RH | 21.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 13.2% | 15.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.4% |
| Indians | Road | 19.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | RH | 20.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | RH | 21.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.5% | RH | 20.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 0.0% | 11.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 11.1% | 7.9% | LH | 19.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Rays | Home | 21.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | RH | 21.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | RH | 20.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 14.9% | 13.8% | 10.3% |
| Giants | Road | 23.7% | 12.1% | 6.4% | RH | 21.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Braves | Home | 21.4% | 7.2% | 10.5% | RH | 22.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Astros | Home | 17.9% | 18.2% | 10.6% | RH | 20.9% | 16.0% | 11.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.6% | 11.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.2% | 8.2% | 11.5% | RH | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 17.5% | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 9.5% | 12.5% | LH | 20.7% | 15.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | LH | 19.5% | 10.3% | 13.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.0% | 14.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | RH | 22.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | RH | 21.4% | 13.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.5% | RH | 21.2% | 13.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Angels | Home | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% | RH | 20.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.2% | 15.9% | 8.2% | RH | 21.4% | 14.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.2% | 15.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.1% | 15.4% | 7.4% | LH | 24.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.4% |
| Royals | Road | 23.8% | 9.1% | 9.9% | RH | 22.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.8% | 12.5% | 8.1% | LH | 20.6% | 11.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 19.7% | 7.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 21.5% | 8.7% | 2.47 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 |
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.14 | 14.1% | 7.5% | 1.88 |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.94 | 13.6% | 7.4% | 1.84 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 1.71 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 18.1% | 6.0% | 3.02 | 14.4% | 4.6% | 3.13 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 17.2% | 6.9% | 2.49 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 2.74 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.6% | 12.7% | 2.09 | 23.7% | 13.9% | 1.71 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 20.6% | 9.2% | 2.24 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 2.22 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 18.9% | 6.2% | 3.05 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 3.00 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 11.1% | 5.2% | 2.13 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 2.30 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.2% | 10.0% | 1.72 | 13.3% | 8.8% | 1.51 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.89 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 1.78 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 22.5% | 9.8% | 2.30 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 2.21 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 19.1% | 9.7% | 1.97 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 1.53 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 16.7% | 9.0% | 1.86 | 12.1% | 8.1% | 1.49 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 20.5% | 9.2% | 2.23 | 16.8% | 7.9% | 2.13 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 3.9% | 6.1% | 0.64 | 3.9% | 6.1% | 0.64 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.08 | 15.9% | 8.1% | 1.96 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.1% | 7.4% | 1.77 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.25 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 19.6% | 7.4% | 2.65 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.57 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.80 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.80 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 21.5% | 8.5% | 2.53 | 28.0% | 8.8% | 3.18 |
Bartolo Colon – We just let him do his thing here and not bother much about it. Seriously, he’s one of the few players who’s exhibited an ability to get called punch outs over several years and has a quality framing catching corps to help him do it. Or perhaps they look better because of him? Either way, a SwStr rate that hasn’t topped 5.4% in his last six starts is beginning to get scary.
Carlos Carrasco has seen his K% drop slightly, but his SwStr% rise over the last month. This is generally a good sign that nothing is amiss.
Dan Haren has maintained his K% from last season despite a drop of almost a point in his SwStr%. The catching staff has been -3.7 RAA in the framing department this season, suggesting this is even flukier for a guy with perfectly league average K and SwStr rates over his career. He has not once hit double digits this season with a 9.0 SwStr% two starts back being his season peak.
Jon Lester has had a frustrating first year in Chicago so far even though his ERA estimators are right at or even below his career marks. He’s walked seven of his last 42 batters (though with 12 Ks) and allowed four or more ERs for the 3rd time in five starts last time out. The good news is he’s maintained solid contact management skills despite a 23.4 LD% this year. He has a 7.8 Hard-Soft% for the season, including a -17.4 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks to go along with a 15.4 K-BB% that is a bit better than his career rate. Making matters better is that the Mets have been ice cold and just lost one of their top ground ball hitters……er….top RH hitters in Cuddyer to a knee injury last night. The Mets have a 23.6 K% vs LHP, but also a 15.0 HR/FB and have generally hit the ball hard (13.9 Hard-Soft% overall) even during the last week (19.1 Hard-Soft%). They still represent one of the top park adjusted matchups.
Jose Quintana – This simply shows that we shouldn’t be concerned at all by the drop in K% over the last month.
Kyle Lohse – It’s interesting that his K/SwStr decline has coincided with a down year for Lucroy in terms of framing (+1.3 RAA), but while he’s seen a drop in his SwStr% over the last month, we shouldn’t be too concerned about the 12.1 K%. Yeah, it’s really the HRs we should still be concerned about.
Wei-Yin Chen – Maybe we’re not buying into the recent strikeout surge. The SwStr% hasn’t changed nor been above 8.5% in any of his last three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 2.01 | 3.33 | 1.32 | 3.17 | 1.16 | 2.63 | 0.62 | 2.41 | 3.38 | 0.97 | 3.11 | 0.7 | 2.51 | 0.1 |
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 3.56 | 4.32 | 0.76 | 4.49 | 0.93 | 4.01 | 0.45 | 7.28 | 4.89 | -2.39 | 5.16 | -2.12 | 6.3 | -0.98 |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 4.5 | 4.62 | 0.12 | 4.36 | -0.14 | 4.82 | 0.32 | 4.45 | 5.5 | 1.05 | 5.06 | 0.61 | 5.6 | 1.15 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 3.57 | 4.38 | 0.81 | 4.25 | 0.68 | 3.93 | 0.36 | 5.4 | 4.41 | -0.99 | 4.34 | -1.06 | 4.65 | -0.75 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.89 | 3.72 | -1.17 | 3.7 | -1.19 | 3.89 | -1 | 5.04 | 4.14 | -0.9 | 4.05 | -0.99 | 4.15 | -0.89 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.13 | 3.19 | 0.06 | 3.35 | 0.22 | 3.43 | 0.3 | 2.72 | 3.4 | 0.68 | 3.41 | 0.69 | 3.65 | 0.93 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 4.16 | 2.9 | -1.26 | 2.87 | -1.29 | 2.94 | -1.22 | 4.02 | 3.19 | -0.83 | 3.26 | -0.76 | 3.45 | -0.57 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.73 | 3.3 | -0.43 | 3.27 | -0.46 | 3.21 | -0.52 | 3.56 | 2.99 | -0.57 | 3.1 | -0.46 | 2.41 | -1.15 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 3.38 | 4.09 | 0.71 | 4.31 | 0.93 | 4.26 | 0.88 | 4.06 | 4.02 | -0.04 | 4.43 | 0.37 | 3.91 | -0.15 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 4.15 | 4.8 | 0.65 | 4.52 | 0.37 | 4.39 | 0.24 | 3.65 | 4.21 | 0.56 | 4.15 | 0.5 | 3.5 | -0.15 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.18 | 4.31 | 1.13 | 4.21 | 1.03 | 3.57 | 0.39 | 3.64 | 4.63 | 0.99 | 4.44 | 0.8 | 4.04 | 0.4 |
| John Lackey | STL | 3.35 | 4.09 | 0.74 | 4.04 | 0.69 | 3.41 | 0.06 | 4.36 | 4.21 | -0.15 | 4.36 | 0 | 3.95 | -0.41 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.03 | 3.49 | -0.54 | 3.3 | -0.73 | 3.57 | -0.46 | 5.74 | 3.82 | -1.92 | 3.55 | -2.19 | 3.81 | -1.93 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.95 | 3.88 | -0.07 | 3.86 | -0.09 | 3.58 | -0.37 | 3.27 | 4.27 | 1 | 4.16 | 0.89 | 4.13 | 0.86 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 6.28 | 4.18 | -2.1 | 4.19 | -2.09 | 5.11 | -1.17 | 5.83 | 4.62 | -1.21 | 4.5 | -1.33 | 5.35 | -0.48 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 5.03 | 3.76 | -1.27 | 3.94 | -1.09 | 4.61 | -0.42 | 4.28 | 4.2 | -0.08 | 4.2 | -0.08 | 3.47 | -0.81 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 3.75 | 5.48 | 1.73 | 5.11 | 1.36 | 4.1 | 0.35 | 3.75 | 5.48 | 1.73 | 5.11 | 1.36 | 4.1 | 0.35 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.81 | 4 | -0.81 | 3.84 | -0.97 | 3.78 | -1.03 | 5.76 | 4.22 | -1.54 | 4.07 | -1.69 | 3.14 | -2.62 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.39 | 4.88 | 1.49 | 4.97 | 1.58 | 4.59 | 1.2 | 6.35 | 5.23 | -1.12 | 5.49 | -0.86 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 1.98 | 4.01 | 2.03 | 4.04 | 2.06 | 3.1 | 1.12 | 2.08 | 4.26 | 2.18 | 4.27 | 2.19 | 3.43 | 1.35 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 3.72 | 4.79 | 1.07 | 5.01 | 1.29 | 3.51 | -0.21 | 3.72 | 4.79 | 1.07 | 5.01 | 1.29 | 3.51 | -0.21 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 2.9 | 3.67 | 0.77 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 4.12 | 1.22 | 2.13 | 2.88 | 0.75 | 2.76 | 0.63 | 3.14 | 1.01 |
A.J. Burnett – The resurgence isn’t without question marks. His 81.8 LOB% is 10.1 points above his career rate and a 4.5 HR/FB is less than half his 11.0% career mark. I have no doubt both will regress and bring drive his ERA up towards three, which is still a much better season than anybody could have expected.
Aaron Harang had just a 57.6 LOB% in June to go with a 17.1 HR/FB, all of which took place in parks favoring power hitters against teams with power hitters. I’d expect a bounce back in his strand rate at least as his strength of schedule evens out, but he really hasn’t pitched well with just a 5.9 K-BB% for the month. For the season, he has just a .262 BABIP that is 40 points below his career mark, but he also has the highest fly ball rate (45.5%) of his career with a great 12.4 IFFB%, average line drive rate, and reasonable Z-Contact%. However, with the Philadelphia defense behind him, I’m not buying. He’s not as bad as he’s been over the last month, but not as good as he looked before that either.
Bartolo Colon has a 65.4 LOB% that suggests a sequencing issue with neither his BABIP nor HR being much amiss. This is usually the easiest thing to solve as it will either generally take care of itself or require some kind of adjustment made when pitching from the stretch.
Carlos Carrasco creates some of his own problems with a 32.8 Hard% that’s led to an 11.4 HR/FB and may play a part in his .336 BABIP. However, he has the best Z-Contact% on the board today and is generally pretty hard to square up as is evidenced in his 19.9 LD%. Some of the blame here falls on his defense and that’s not a situation we can expect to greatly improve, so who knows how much regression we should expect in his ERA, though I think we’ll see it drop below four.
Dan Haren saw an adjustment to his LOB% in June, but still sits a tick above 80% for the season. His BABIP actually dropped slightly and while he has the 2nd highest qualified fly ball rate (49.3%) and generates more than a pop up per start, he’s been very hittable in the strike zone and should see some regression in there towards his .228 career rate.
John Lackey has a career 9.5 HR/FB, which is a little better than average and has pitched in pitcher’s parks for most of his career, making that an acceptable number. This year it’s down to 6.4%, which is a little low for comfort, but seems to be something St Louis pitchers are able to do almost as a whole at home. It’s a very tough park for power and while I think we’ll see some adjustment (he has to occasionally pitch on the road), I don’t have a problem leaning more towards his FIP. You could also note that there may be some hope for a nearly league average K% in the future based on his SwStr%, which would further help his ERA and estimators.
Jon Lester has matched or exceeded his career ERA estimators as mentioned above, so what’s wrong? His strand rate is close to his career level, but his .329 BABIP is a career high while his 13.2 HR/FB is his 2nd worst mark and well above his career 9.6 HR/FB. His 23.4 LD% is the highest mark of his career, which has come almost entirely from his fly balls, which is a double whammy as his IFFB% has dropped below double digits for only the 2nd time in his career. His hard contact is up slightly, but so is his soft contact, which is fairly consistent with last year. He seems to be throwing the same pitches with the same velocity at the same frequencies, but his fastball and cutter are just getting hit harder (.500 SLG vs each). It’s actually lefties who are crushing him with a 25.5 LD%, 20.0 HR/FB, and 36.7 Hard%. Looking at the heatmaps, it looks like lefties are hitting him particularly hard on the inner middle portion of the plate, especially high.
Jose Quintana looks like he’s pitched better than his estimators over the last month, but if we bring his K% back in line with his SwStr%, those estimators should drop. There’s not much he can do about the BABIP with that defense though.
Kyle Lohse – I guess we’ll mention the 19 HRs again (16.2 HR/FB), which has led to a 62.8 LOB%. The good news is that the BABIP is still intact as is his 11.6 K-BB% in line with the three previous seasons. As a fly ball pitcher in a terrible park, this is a huge issue that might not go away with a hard hit rate well north of 30%. The good news is that we might be able to find situations on the road where he’s useful. Today may be such a situation not because of the park, but because of the opposing offense.
Matt Shoemaker still has a 14.7 HR/FB despite just two over his last six starts due to his early season activity. His estimators have actually dipped slightly over the last month as his ERA has improved. Both his K and BB rates are slightly worse this season, though still better than league average, while his BABIP has remained unchanged. The 67.1 LOB%, which was actually at its lowest mark in June despite the HR improvement, could stand to see some improvement.
Nathan Eovaldi – The gap between ERA and estimators is predicated solely on the .354 BABIP. The defense hasn’t helped, but he does have a .313 career mark and really doesn’t do much to help himself with a 23.9 LD% just one point above his career rate and just four pop ups on the season. He should see some improvement, but don’t expect much.
Wei-Yin Chen has essentially been able to space out the offensive damage and strand 82.6% of his runners. That’s been the biggest difference this year and sequencing normally self-adjusts.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.301 | 0.326 | 0.025 | 6.1% | 91.8% |
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.314 | 0.262 | -0.052 | 12.4% | 88.8% |
| Alex Colome | TAM | 0.277 | 0.295 | 0.018 | 12.7% | 90.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.290 | 0.274 | -0.016 | 7.4% | 87.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.290 | 0.307 | 0.017 | 7.6% | 92.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.298 | 0.318 | 0.02 | 2.0% | 91.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.309 | 0.336 | 0.027 | 7.6% | 84.5% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.287 | 0.310 | 0.023 | 15.0% | 87.1% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 0.294 | 0.234 | -0.06 | 13.4% | 91.2% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 0.316 | 0.293 | -0.023 | 1.6% | 90.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.272 | 0.255 | -0.017 | 3.4% | 86.0% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.292 | 0.294 | 0.002 | 12.8% | 88.9% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.291 | 0.329 | 0.038 | 9.2% | 86.4% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.326 | 0.335 | 0.009 | 5.4% | 87.3% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.307 | 0.296 | -0.011 | 11.1% | 89.9% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.273 | 0.285 | 0.012 | 9.8% | 89.2% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.300 | 0.298 | -0.002 | 11.1% | 93.4% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.306 | 0.354 | 0.048 | 5.1% | 88.4% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.285 | 0.288 | 0.003 | 12.1% | 91.2% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.294 | 0.252 | -0.042 | 7.0% | 88.4% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 0.276 | 0.314 | 0.038 | 13.3% | 90.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.287 | 0.274 | -0.013 | 8.9% | 87.0% |
All worthwhile pitchers have been discussed above.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
I’m going to try something different again today and rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five or so. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. Unlike most of the facts above, this section is merely one person’s opinion after consulting with a spreadsheet. It’s more for fun than anything else and helps you see where I’m drawing imaginary lines and boundaries.
Value Tier One
Carlos Carrasco (1) has the highest projected K and K-BB rates today. The Rays will strike out and haven’t hit much at all lately. He is by far the top overall guy with the most potential tonight with a price tag in line or just higher than Lester at the top of the board tonight. There is some risk when he does allow contact though.
Chris Heston (3) – It’s not often that he ranks this well overall as most of his value has come from people under-rating him in good to great situations. He’s in another such spot against the Stanton-less Marlins tonight. He won’t blow your mind, but has been a little above average in just about every way and remains very affordable almost everywhere tonight.
Value Tier One A – There’s a small imaginary gap between him and the two above and then a few below
Brett Anderson (4) has simply been very good for the Dodgers. He strikes out just enough to be relevant and otherwise generates a massive amount of groundballs. Goldschmidt scares you here, but the ground balls make the park less of a concern. Arizona does have three of his six HRs allowed this year in three starts. I essentially expect a league average performance from him, but the price is in line with Heston on the low end (or middle today).
Value Tier Two
Matt Shoemaker (5t) has cut down on his HRs and generally pitched very well at home. He comes at a reasonable, though not great price, and the lefty heavy Yankee offense shouldn’t play as scary as usual in a bigger park.
Jon Lester (2) – As you can see, I like him fine overall as he’s in a great spot. The one concern here is that the Mets might actually lean more left-handed than usual tonight against a lefty and that’s the side that’s really done the damage against him. The Mets have hit the ball hard, but don’t seem to be able to do damage against anyone. He carries a hefty price and maybe not as much upside as Carrasco, but is probably less of a risk and more of a cash game pitcher, who may not be the top value, but should be affordable in your lineups tonight with a lack of other top options.
Value Tier Three
Bartolo Colon (7t) – I’m really looking closely at the umpire assignment tonight. This could be a feast or famine situation. The current state of the Cub offense leans me more towards a solid start tonight from him at a middling price tag. If the fastball command is off and it leaks over the plate too often, they could do some damage.
Jose Quintana (7t) – He’s no Chris Sale, but the Cardinals are bad vs LHP and the ball should stay in the park. He doesn’t have the most upside, but comes at a very reasonable price and the June drop in K% looks like a fluke.
John Lackey (5t) – The cost is a bit more than expected, but that probably do to a strong matchup. He should have a strong outing here, but the White Sox strike out at just below a league average rate on the road and vs RHP, potentially limiting the upside.
Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either.
Wei-Yin Chen (9)
A.J. Burnett (10) is a price tag plus matchup casualty tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window