Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, June 17th
Wednesday is “Confuse Baseball Fans” day. All of the teams that were playing each other yesterday are still playing each other tonight with one major difference. That difference being that they switch stadiums. This is liable to confuse us when considering park factors and DH rules if you quickly assume a game between two teams who played yesterday is taking place in the same stadium today.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may either alter or strengthen the information below.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the FanGraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.4 | 3.45 | 6.07 | 1.44 | 0.98 | 2.85 | 4.15 | BOS | 79 | 84 | 124 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | -6 | 4.28 | 6. | 0.92 | 1.4 | 4.39 | 4.97 | COL | 92 | 64 | 43 | 19.2% | 6.7% | 19.3% | 6.2% | 9.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 6.5 | 3.47 | 5.46 | 1.93 | 1.05 | 3.27 | 2.95 | MIN | 105 | 83 | 83 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.3 | 3.88 | 5.67 | 1.23 | 1.09 | 3.74 | 3.83 | ANA | 86 | 96 | 91 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 6.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 7.4 | 2.35 | 7.14 | 1.78 | 0.89 | 1.7 | 2.03 | TEX | 93 | 95 | 94 | 27.4% | 7.2% | 17.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% |
| David Price | DET | 9.1 | 3.04 | 7.26 | 1.09 | 1.02 | 3.1 | 2.29 | CIN | 107 | 106 | 72 | 23.7% | 5.9% | 21.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 2.8 | 3.66 | 5.69 | 0.91 | 1.05 | 3.35 | 4.55 | NYM | 80 | 90 | 112 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 24.8% | 12.4% | 13.1% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -5.2 | 2.69 | 6.64 | 2.14 | 0.85 | 2.62 | 4.78 | SFO | 119 | 109 | 80 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 15.1% | 6.4% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.4 | 4.35 | 5.42 | 0.65 | 1.09 | 4.47 | 4.37 | ARI | 92 | 92 | 93 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 19.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -5.6 | 4.27 | 5.78 | 1.86 | 1.08 | 4.22 | 4.41 | CHW | 78 | 41 | 59 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 20.6% | 11.8% | 9.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -9.3 | 3.64 | 6.14 | 1.18 | 0.93 | 3.84 | 4.19 | SDG | 89 | 88 | 69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 14.4 | 3.75 | 5.59 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 2.54 | 2.75 | MIL | 71 | 80 | 71 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 20.8% | 9.5% | 12.4% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -3.6 | 4.29 | 5.66 | 1.95 | 0.98 | 4.25 | 4.27 | ATL | 97 | 98 | 105 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 22.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% |
| John Danks | CHW | -6.3 | 4.5 | 6.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 4.47 | 4.54 | PIT | 87 | 94 | 118 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 22.9% | 10.6% | 8.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 1.9 | 3.18 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.02 | 2.79 | 2.65 | DET | 107 | 106 | 122 | 23.3% | 5.9% | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | -0.7 | 3.73 | 6.15 | 1.79 | 1.05 | 3.73 | 2.41 | TOR | 128 | 143 | 123 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 20.4% | 15.1% | 10.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -3.8 | 3.5 | 6.17 | 1.19 | 1.03 | 3.62 | 4.46 | TAM | 87 | 94 | 109 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 23.9% | 5.7% | 9.6% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 7.1 | 4.27 | 5.78 | 2.09 | 1.02 | 4.06 | 3.72 | NYY | 114 | 103 | 76 | 16.2% | 6.4% | 18.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | -1.6 | 4.67 | 5.6 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 4.76 | 3.5 | BAL | 89 | 106 | 172 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 22.6% | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.7 | 4.53 | 6.05 | 1.33 | 1.4 | 4.28 | 4.56 | HOU | 98 | 103 | 146 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 13.4% | 10.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -3.8 | 3.16 | 6.57 | 1.27 | 0.85 | 3.17 | 2.52 | SEA | 99 | 104 | 70 | 23.5% | 6.0% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 13.3% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 10.4 | 3.62 | 4.03 | 2.27 | 1.03 | 4.64 | 2.99 | WAS | 95 | 101 | 128 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 20.2% | 9.5% | 5.8% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -7.1 | 3.05 | 6.04 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 2.98 | 5.41 | FLA | 93 | 84 | 113 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 23.5% | 12.6% | 7.2% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | -1.7 | 3.18 | 5.79 | 0.82 | 1.04 | 3.27 | 4.29 | KAN | 99 | 100 | 92 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 20.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | -16 | 4.18 | 6. | 1.79 | 0.93 | 4.17 | 3.38 | OAK | 108 | 109 | 113 | 16.0% | 6.9% | 21.0% | 12.4% | 6.2% |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | -5 | 4.28 | 5.69 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 4.29 | 3.97 | CHC | 99 | 91 | 111 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 20.8% | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.3 | 4.51 | 5.52 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 4.79 | 4.08 | STL | 89 | 85 | 114 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 20.6% | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 1.8 | 3.82 | 5.07 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 4.2 | 5.22 | CLE | 119 | 109 | 104 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 23.0% | 11.1% | 6.5% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.9 | 3.95 | 5.7 | 1.24 | 1.01 | 4.28 | 4.87 | PHI | 76 | 69 | 43 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 24.7% | 8.8% | 13.1% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | -0.8 | 4.1 | 5.38 | 1.28 | 0.89 | 3.94 | 3.8 | LOS | 123 | 90 | 98 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 20.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
Alex Wood walked four and doubled up on his HRs allowed from two to four in his last outing. While his strikeouts are down, the good news is a SwStr rate over the last month that shows glimpses of last season. He’s pitched five of his last six games and eight of his twelve this year on the road but has a 21.5 K-BB% and 2.85 xFIP at home since last season. The Red Sox have strong walk and strikeout rates against LHP, but just a 2.8 Hard-Soft% on batted balls.
Carlos Martinez was someone the Cardinals considered leaving in the bullpen, but the Astros must have had information that said “No, you start him!” So the Cardinals listened. Now they’re glad they did as he might be their best pitcher. He’s allowed two ERs or fewer in 10 of 12 starts now including his last one in Colorado. He does have a double digit walk rate but strikes out enough to maintain a 15.4 K-BB% and faces a team that has a 14.8 K-BB% vs RHP. Looking at contact authority, Martinez has a 6.7 Hard-Soft% that meshes well with the Twins 7.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
Chase Anderson has allowed more than two ERs in just two of his last 11 starts. The numbers under the hood aren’t that great, but still resemble something close to a league average pitcher, generating exactly league average K and BB rates at home since the start of last season. The Angels have struggled on the road but bump up to a league average matchup with a park adjustment.
Clayton Kershaw gets the Rangers at home where he has a 1.70 xFIP since the start of last season (31.1 K-BB%). They have a 14.2 Hard-Soft% vs LHP, but are without their best RH hitter (Beltre) and have been leaving several LHBs in against LHPs. Kershaw has an enormous projected K rate tonight that is well ahead of anybody else and a potential K-BB above 20%. Oh, and he’s also struck out 22 of the last 54 batters he’s faced and has a 16.7 SwStr% over the last month. He sets up well against a below average Texas offense here in a very good park.
David Price has pitched back to back complete games allowing a total of one run while striking out 19 of 62 batters. He has a 20.8 K-BB% on the road since the start of last season and is very much alive among those group of guys fighting for the #2 spot behind Kershaw tonight. The Reds could put up a fight. They are a good home offense (15.9 HR/FB) and strong vs LHP (14.4 HR/FB).
Drew Hutchison has taken quite a few beatings this year, but has allowed two ERs or less in four of his last five home starts and has a 3.35 xFIP and 25.6 K% in Toronto since the start of last season. The Mets have struggled on the road (23.6 K%), but the park enhances this to a neutral matchup and they do hit the ball hard with a 13.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and 20.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Felix Hernandez lasted all of nine batters in Houston last week and eight of them crossed the plate. He did walk two of them, but four of the six batted balls were on the ground. Unfortunately, both fly balls left the yard and it was his second terrible start in his last three. The contact authority stats say that only one of his batted balls was hit hard, so maybe one was a cheap HR? I didn’t see, I don’t know. This is what the numbers tell me. They also say he still has a 2.3 Hard-Soft% this year, but there’s no doubt a higher walk rate and enormous 21.3 HR/FB have plagued him this year. The Giants are by far the top road team and have a 16.8 K% vs RHP. They haven’t hit well over the last week and the park makes them a favorable matchup here, but they have just a 15.5 K% over the last week. Felix has allowed six of his 10 HRs at home in seven starts.
Jeff Locke has allowed at least three ERs in eight of his last 10 starts but has also allowed none in two of his last four starts. He might be a little better than his ERA believes, but we’re more concerned with his competition tonight. The White Sox have a 17.9 K-BB% and 7.8 HR/FB vs LHP with just a 2.1 Hard-Soft% and are by far the worst offense in the majors against them. He has the top matchup tonight, even adjusting for the hitter friendly park.
Jesse Chavez is essentially a league average pitcher putting up some great numbers due to a low HR rate, which we’ll get into later. The Padres represent a good matchup in a good park. They have just a 7.9 HR/FB on the road and are a team in flux with a 27.6 K% over the last week.
Joe Blanton has snuck into seven games in relief for the Royals but gets his first start tonight. He’s gone multiple innings in several for a total of 15 this season. The numbers love him in a small sample size, but we’re going to quickly sum that up here. He generally has a great K to BB ratio, but that’s generally due to a low walk rate. He has a career 11.0 HR/FB, so maybe Kansas City is the team and park for him. He has a great matchup against a terrible road offense but, unfortunately, has retained a lot of his inability to generate weak contact so far (19.6 Hard-Soft%).
Johnny Cueto allowed four runs in his last start but has struck out nine in each of his last two. He’s not really beating his estimators this year, but those estimators are excellent, keeping his ERA around the three mark. He has a 23.5 K-BB% at home since last year, but with a 13.9 HR/FB. It’s a tough park for power and a tough offense he faces tonight though they have just an 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP.
Jordan Zimmermann has allowed 10 ERs over his last 8.1 innings, striking out just seven of 45 batters. Strikeouts continue to be down this year (compared to last year at least) though he’s shown an encouraging bump in his SwStr% over the last month. He has done well overall to generating a decent amount of weak contact (7.1 Hard-Soft%). The Rays aren’t a good road offense and are basically a neutral matchup here. Zimmermann has just a 3.6 HR/FB at home since last season and has shown some ability to suppress HRs over his career (8.2 HR/FB), although not to that extent.
Madison Bumgarner is coming off a strong bounce-back start at home last time out and has a 19.9 K-BB% on the road since the start of last season. He’s putting up the same great numbers you’d expect him to again this year with few surprises and has a mostly neutral matchup that park adjusts to a very good one in the most pitching friendly park in use tonight. The Mariners have a 16.0 K-BB% at home.
Matt Andriese was great in his last start, pitching into the sixth inning for the first time this year, but against a weak White Sox offense. His peripherals suggest a league average profile, but he does allow more hard contact (37.6%) than you’d like. That’s countered a bit with a strong 2.27 GB/FB. The Nationals destroyed the ball last night and have a 13.0 HR/FB at home with a 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP. They’ve been just neutral overall in those two spots though.
Michael Pineda did not look good in his last start and has now struggled in three of his last five. He’s allowed four of his seven HRs over that span. He continues to generate a lot of groundballs though and has great overall numbers. The 31.0 Hard% has begun to become a concern though. An elite walk rate and 21.3 K-BB% at home as a Yankee helps limit the damage from the contact authority. The Marlins don’t take walks either but do have a 13.8 HR/FB on the road. Even with the park adjustment, they’re still a slightly favorable matchup here.
Mike Fiers might be a rare pitcher that benefits from a Kansas City matchup (from a daily fantasy perspective at least). He gets more called strikeouts than the average pitcher, but the Royals don’t wait around to be punched out. Part of the reason they have such low K and BB rates is because they swing at everything and part of the reason they have just a 7.3 Hard-Soft% is because they make contact with most of it. If they’re making a lot of contact with pitcher’s pitches tonight that should help a 42.3 Hard% that’s worst in the league for Fiers. The big park should help his fly ball tendencies too. The Royals have just a 6.8 HR/FB at home and he has a 4.5 HR/FB on the road since last season. Expect his K rate to drop some, but it might still be ok while his batted ball results are looking up tonight in an otherwise neutral matchup.
Ubaldo Jimenez is rarely a trustable commodity. He could be pleasantly chugging along for a few starts and then he walks six two outings back. Thankfully, we can trust the Phillies to deliver the suck. They have just a 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP, 1.9 HR/FB over the last week, and 1.9 Hard-Soft% on the season. That last one is an area where Jimenez excels (5.7 Hard-Soft% this year). Even with a hitter friendly park adjustment, they still rate as the 2nd best matchup of the night.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Brett Oberholtzer (.323 BABIP – 76.7 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB)
Hector Santiago (.249 BABIP – 87.7 LOB% – 8.9 HR/FB)
Shaun Marcum (.232 BABIP – 80.9 LOB% -17.5 HR/FB) – The last number actually counteracts the first two, but his FIP is a scary number.
Tommy Milone (.243 BABIP – 81.0 LOB% – 17.0 HR/FB) – He’s almost a carbon copy of copy of Marcum batted ball wise.
Wandy Rodriguez (.263 BABIP – 77.2 LOB% – 7.0 HR/FB) – The BABIP can be quibbled with, but the team defense has at least positioned themselves very well this year. He actually hasn’t been bad and the Dodgers aren’t as good vs LHP, but have a 14.7 Hard-Soft% against them and are tough at home.
NO THANK YOU
Everything that starts with a J, a K, or is just hard to spell goes down here today.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Braves | 22.3% | 7.0% | Home | 27.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | 15.3% | 5.0% | Road | 16.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 22.8% | 9.5% | Road | 23.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 9.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 19.7% | 7.2% | Home | 20.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 30.1% | 4.8% | Home | 34.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 9.3% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.1% | 3.8% | Road | 25.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 31.2% | 3.3% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.4% | 7.3% | Home | 25.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 26.5% | 5.8% | Home | 27.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 14.7% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.2% | 9.8% | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 4.8% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 16.7% | 9.3% | Road | 17.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 21.5% | 7.6% | Home | 19.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Joe Blanton | Royals | 19.8% | 7.2% | Home | 24.4% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 6.5% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 15.9% | 9.3% | Road | 16.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 15.1% | 7.2% | Home | 16.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 24.4% | 6.0% | Home | 28.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 27.2% | 2.5% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.8% | 5.9% | Road | 16.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.6% | 4.6% | Home | 18.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 5.3% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 11.3% | 5.7% | Road | 12.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Kevin Correia | Phillies | 12.3% | 6.3% | Home | 11.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.2% | 6.4% | Home | 15.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 5.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 24.5% | 5.8% | Road | 23.4% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 4.8% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 15.3% | 5.1% | Road | 13.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 4.2% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 22.7% | 2.7% | Home | 23.9% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 26.8% | 7.2% | Road | 27.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 12.0% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 14.7% | 6.7% | Road | 13.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 1.9% |
| Shaun Marcum | Indians | 18.3% | 8.5% | Home | 22.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 15.5% | 7.3% | Home | 14.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | Cubs | 20.9% | 7.2% | Road | 18.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 11.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.3% | 11.1% | Road | 22.0% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 16.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 18.5% | 7.8% | Road | 21.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 5.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 16.7% | 8.7% | LH | 17.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.5% | 6.5% | LH | 25.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Home | 18.4% | 6.1% | RH | 21.0% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | RH | 19.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | LH | 22.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 9.1% |
| Reds | Home | 19.0% | 9.1% | LH | 20.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.4% |
| Mets | Road | 23.4% | 6.0% | RH | 20.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.7% |
| Giants | Road | 18.5% | 7.2% | RH | 16.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 15.5% | 6.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.1% | 8.5% | LH | 19.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.6% | 7.1% | LH | 23.5% | 5.6% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.4% |
| Padres | Road | 21.1% | 7.7% | RH | 22.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.4% | 5.4% | RH | 21.7% | 6.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 4.8% |
| Braves | Home | 17.7% | 8.7% | RH | 16.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.5% | 6.4% | LH | 24.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.1% | 8.6% | RH | 18.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.9% | 9.4% | LH | 16.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.6% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | RH | 20.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.8% | 8.1% | RH | 19.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.3% | 7.0% | RH | 22.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.2% |
| Astros | Road | 23.7% | 7.6% | RH | 25.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.4% | 7.4% | LH | 19.6% | 5.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.5% | 8.0% | RH | 20.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.4% | 5.8% | RH | 20.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 17.1% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Home | 14.7% | 5.9% | RH | 16.4% | 5.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 3.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.4% | 8.2% | RH | 17.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.8% | 8.2% | RH | 25.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.2% | 7.4% | LH | 23.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 18.1% | 11.0% | LH | 16.2% | 10.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.0% | 6.5% | RH | 19.4% | 5.7% | L7Days | 17.0% | 4.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.3% | 8.9% | LH | 20.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Braves | 21.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | Home | 22.6% | 11.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | 20.8% | 5.3% | 9.4% | Road | 20.6% | 3.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | Road | 20.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | Home | 21.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.4% | 8.0% | 11.1% | Home | 21.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| David Price | Tigers | 21.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | Road | 21.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 20.7% | 10.6% | 10.0% | Home | 20.9% | 11.0% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.4% | 12.2% | 9.0% | Home | 17.5% | 13.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.2% | 8.4% | 13.7% | Road | 20.8% | 8.2% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 20.5% | 11.9% | 9.5% | Road | 20.4% | 16.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | Home | 25.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Joe Blanton | Royals | 22.9% | 21.0% | 6.2% | Home | 21.4% | 12.5% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 21.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | Road | 19.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.9% | 12.5% | 7.6% | Home | 18.6% | 11.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 21.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | Home | 18.4% | 13.2% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 10.5% | 21.1% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 22.5% | 10.8% | 6.3% | Road | 20.8% | 11.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 23.7% | 7.1% | 11.7% | Home | 24.3% | 3.6% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 32.8% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 17.4% | 13.0% | 17.4% | Road | 17.0% | 15.4% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Kevin Correia | Phillies | 21.9% | 9.2% | 6.1% | Home | 20.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | Home | 22.6% | 14.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.4% | 9.8% | 13.1% | Road | 18.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 20.0% | 30.0% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 20.9% | 13.6% | 9.1% | Road | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 19.6% | 7.7% | 10.3% | Home | 18.3% | 8.4% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 21.9% | 9.9% | 14.3% | Road | 20.8% | 4.5% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 20.8% | 9.9% | 7.1% | Road | 21.1% | 12.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Shaun Marcum | Indians | 22.8% | 15.6% | 10.9% | Home | 17.5% | 14.3% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 21.1% | 11.7% | 12.4% | Home | 18.5% | 10.3% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | Cubs | 22.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | Road | 27.7% | 12.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.3% | 8.9% | 10.6% | Road | 22.3% | 12.0% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 17.7% | 14.6% | 8.3% | Road | 15.6% | 16.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.7% | 15.3% | LH | 19.7% | 10.1% | 13.6% | L7Days | 21.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 23.1% | 12.2% | 9.3% | LH | 24.6% | 6.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.4% | 1.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | RH | 20.3% | 8.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 16.0% | 4.8% | 8.1% |
| Angels | Road | 18.3% | 11.0% | 6.7% | RH | 20.3% | 11.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.1% | 6.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.7% | 10.5% | 8.4% | LH | 20.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.6% | 15.9% | 9.0% | LH | 23.5% | 14.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 14.7% | 11.0% | 5.5% |
| Mets | Road | 24.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | RH | 23.3% | 8.6% | 12.5% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.1% | 12.1% |
| Giants | Road | 24.6% | 12.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 12.2% | 7.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 11.6% | 8.8% | LH | 18.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.1% | 14.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.9% | 11.6% | 10.6% | LH | 20.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 13.9% | 11.1% |
| Padres | Road | 20.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | RH | 19.5% | 10.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 10.2% | 4.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 3.8% | 11.5% |
| Braves | Home | 22.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | RH | 23.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.0% | 13.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | LH | 24.7% | 13.4% | 4.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.3% | 2.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.2% | 9.8% | 5.7% | RH | 22.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.9% | 12.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.0% | 15.2% | 14.9% | LH | 22.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 16.1% | 19.4% |
| Rays | Road | 21.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | RH | 21.7% | 8.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.6% | 8.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.6% | 15.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.5% | 13.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 18.8% | 11.1% | 7.4% | RH | 21.1% | 14.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 23.9% | 5.6% |
| Astros | Road | 24.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% | RH | 21.4% | 15.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 17.9% | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.3% | 11.0% | 7.0% | LH | 17.8% | 14.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 15.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 13.0% | 7.5% | RH | 21.0% | 13.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 16.4% | 9.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.1% | 13.8% | 7.6% | RH | 21.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Royals | Home | 21.7% | 6.8% | 10.3% | RH | 22.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.6% | 6.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.9% | 11.9% | 9.1% | RH | 20.4% | 12.0% | 11.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% | LH | 18.9% | 11.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| Indians | Home | 22.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | LH | 21.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | RH | 22.6% | 6.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 1.9% | 19.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.8% | 14.3% | 9.1% | LH | 23.3% | 10.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 11.8% | 7.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 16.9% | 6.7% | 2.52 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 14.9% | 8.4% | 1.77 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 1.65 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.9% | 10.4% | 2.49 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 2.64 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 16.6% | 7.8% | 2.13 | 13.1% | 7.4% | 1.77 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 32.1% | 14.8% | 2.17 | 33.6% | 16.7% | 2.01 |
| David Price | DET | 21.9% | 11.0% | 1.99 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.02 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.15 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 2.56 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 25.2% | 11.0% | 2.29 | 24.1% | 11.4% | 2.11 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 21.5% | 8.8% | 2.44 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 2.57 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.1% | 8.7% | 1.97 | 16.5% | 9.5% | 1.74 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 20.5% | 9.2% | 2.23 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.32 |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 21.0% | 11.6% | 1.81 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 1.86 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.9% | 7.4% | 2.55 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.62 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.1% | 8.8% | 1.83 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 1.45 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 24.4% | 10.8% | 2.26 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 2.05 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.4% | 5.6% | 2.75 | 18.0% | 6.1% | 2.95 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.12 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 1.90 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 11.3% | 8.4% | 1.35 | 12.9% | 8.5% | 1.52 |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | 17.4% | 9.3% | 1.87 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 1.87 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 11.5% | 5.9% | 1.95 | 9.1% | 6.1% | 1.49 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 22.6% | 10.7% | 2.11 | 23.7% | 11.0% | 2.15 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 15.3% | 8.5% | 1.80 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.54 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 24.8% | 11.3% | 2.19 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 1.99 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 25.9% | 9.4% | 2.76 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 2.72 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 12.5% | 5.6% | 2.23 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 2.36 |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.06 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 2.02 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 14.1% | 6.8% | 2.07 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.11 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 24.5% | 6.5% | 3.77 | 24.5% | 6.5% | 3.77 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.75 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 1.96 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 19.8% | 6.4% | 3.09 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 2.87 |
Alex Wood is currently showing some hope in a strikeout rate that’s been down this season. He peaked with a 6.1 SwStr% in five April starts but had a rate between 7.8% and 8.7% in each of four May starts. After a dip in his first June start, it’s been above 9% in each of his last two. If he keeps this up, he’ll be Kershaw by September, but the trend is incredibly encouraging. There’s been no real change in velocity, but he’s increased his change-up usage at the expense of his sinker each month to where he’s now back to last season’s frequency for both pitches strangely enough according to Brooks Baseball.
Jeff Locke has had a SwStr above 9% in each of his last five starts and has a great framer in Cervelli. It could mean a little bit of a bump in his K rate, but more than he’s been striking out over the last month at least.
Mike Fiers has some great framers in Milwaukee and is nearly borderline within range here, so I’ll take it.
Ubaldo Jimenez has missed nearly twice as many bats over the last month, bringing a low early season SwStr rate up almost in line with his K% instead of that mark going south as well, which is what was expected.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 3.56 | 4.19 | 0.63 | 3.99 | 0.43 | 3.35 | -0.21 | 3.08 | 4 | 0.92 | 4 | 0.92 | 3.41 | 0.33 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 2.25 | 4.71 | 2.46 | 4.47 | 2.22 | 3.15 | 0.9 | 2.12 | 4.83 | 2.71 | 4.64 | 2.52 | 3.16 | 1.04 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.93 | 3.4 | 0.47 | 3.19 | 0.26 | 3.72 | 0.79 | 0.8 | 2.95 | 2.15 | 2.91 | 2.11 | 2.51 | 1.71 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.82 | 4.04 | 1.22 | 3.99 | 1.17 | 3.2 | 0.38 | 2.84 | 4.03 | 1.19 | 3.97 | 1.13 | 3.2 | 0.36 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.21 | 2.35 | -0.86 | 2.16 | -1.05 | 2.59 | -0.62 | 1.75 | 2.23 | 0.48 | 2.19 | 0.44 | 2.47 | 0.72 |
| David Price | DET | 2.44 | 3.57 | 1.13 | 3.61 | 1.17 | 2.89 | 0.45 | 1.14 | 3.08 | 1.94 | 3.24 | 2.1 | 1.76 | 0.62 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 5.75 | 3.84 | -1.91 | 3.79 | -1.96 | 4.19 | -1.56 | 5.16 | 3.7 | -1.46 | 3.55 | -1.61 | 4.39 | -0.77 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.38 | 2.97 | -0.41 | 2.96 | -0.42 | 3.75 | 0.37 | 5.46 | 3.58 | -1.88 | 3.27 | -2.19 | 4.53 | -0.93 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.59 | 4.2 | 1.61 | 4.63 | 2.04 | 4.3 | 1.71 | 2.8 | 4.28 | 1.48 | 4.83 | 2.03 | 4.72 | 1.92 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.9 | 4.22 | -0.68 | 4.07 | -0.83 | 4.18 | -0.72 | 4.18 | 4.27 | 0.09 | 4.09 | -0.09 | 3.93 | -0.25 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 2.64 | 3.75 | 1.11 | 3.73 | 1.09 | 2.8 | 0.16 | 2.65 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 3.69 | 1.04 | 2.99 | 0.34 |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 1.8 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 3.36 | 1.56 | 2.84 | 1.04 | 1.64 | 3.01 | 1.37 | 3.44 | 1.8 | 1.92 | 0.28 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.45 | 4.13 | -1.32 | 3.99 | -1.46 | 4.04 | -1.41 | 5.26 | 4.16 | -1.1 | 3.97 | -1.29 | 3.57 | -1.69 |
| John Danks | CHW | 5.16 | 4.47 | -0.69 | 4.52 | -0.64 | 4.59 | -0.57 | 5.83 | 4.48 | -1.35 | 4.27 | -1.56 | 4.43 | -1.4 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 2.85 | 3.11 | 0.26 | 3.15 | 0.3 | 3.15 | 0.3 | 2.67 | 3.08 | 0.41 | 2.96 | 0.29 | 2.59 | -0.08 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 4.24 | 3.86 | -0.38 | 3.74 | -0.5 | 4.36 | 0.12 | 7.09 | 3.75 | -3.34 | 3.55 | -3.54 | 4.79 | -2.3 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.74 | 4.27 | 0.53 | 4.14 | 0.4 | 3.04 | -0.7 | 3.86 | 4.23 | 0.37 | 4.09 | 0.23 | 2.87 | -0.99 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 4.44 | 4.27 | -0.17 | 4.2 | -0.24 | 4.47 | 0.03 | 3.86 | 4.04 | 0.18 | 3.99 | 0.13 | 4.09 | 0.23 |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | 0 | 3.47 | 3.47 | 2.96 | 2.96 | 2.22 | 2.22 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.96 | 2.96 | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 5.87 | 5.06 | -0.81 | 5.08 | -0.79 | 5.88 | 0.01 | 4.08 | 5.67 | 1.59 | 5.52 | 1.44 | 5.45 | 1.37 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.16 | 3.35 | 0.19 | 3.42 | 0.26 | 3.48 | 0.32 | 3.12 | 3.31 | 0.19 | 3.26 | 0.14 | 3.48 | 0.36 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.76 | 3.62 | -0.14 | 3.7 | -0.06 | 4.02 | 0.26 | 0 | 2.99 | 2.99 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.74 | 2.69 | -1.05 | 2.59 | -1.15 | 2.64 | -1.1 | 4.7 | 3.32 | -1.38 | 3.1 | -1.6 | 4.15 | -0.55 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 4.04 | 3.41 | -0.63 | 3.57 | -0.47 | 3.7 | -0.34 | 3 | 3.77 | 0.77 | 3.92 | 0.92 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 4.38 | 4.27 | -0.11 | 4.19 | -0.19 | 4.6 | 0.22 | 2.23 | 3.76 | 1.53 | 3.61 | 1.38 | 3.97 | 1.74 |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | 4.09 | 3.69 | -0.4 | 3.97 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 0.95 | 4.5 | 3.57 | -0.93 | 3.79 | -0.71 | 4.89 | 0.39 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 4.15 | 4.94 | 0.79 | 4.9 | 0.75 | 6.02 | 1.87 | 3 | 4.08 | 1.08 | 4.01 | 1.01 | 5.52 | 2.52 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 4.84 | 3.66 | -1.18 | 3.73 | -1.11 | 4.63 | -0.21 | 4.84 | 3.66 | -1.18 | 3.73 | -1.11 | 4.63 | -0.21 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.19 | 3.54 | 0.35 | 3.38 | 0.19 | 3.5 | 0.31 | 4.33 | 3.93 | -0.4 | 3.82 | -0.51 | 4.03 | -0.3 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 3.03 | 4 | 0.97 | 4 | 0.97 | 3.54 | 0.51 | 2.3 | 3.76 | 1.46 | 3.62 | 1.32 | 3.3 | 1 |
Clayton Kershaw still has a 16.7 HR/FB and has allowed just one fewer than his total of nine last season, but has allowed just three over his last seven starts.
David Price has a 5.8 HR/FB. It’s the lowest of his career and it won’t last, though he does possess a solid 8.9 career HR/FB, which would also, not surprisingly, put him around his career ERA and estimators.
Chase Anderson has just a 4.3 HR/FB. That’s after a 13.6 HR/FB in a fairly extreme hitter’s park last season. His 18.7 Hard-Soft% doesn’t really support such an improvement either. I expect complete regression in his HR rate through the rest of the season.
Drew Hutchison has a .330 BABIP, 64.1 LOB%, and 13.7 HR/FB. All three are candidates for regression though none are incredibly extreme. You’d think the park plays a negative role in his HR rate, but eight of his 10 have been allowed on the road. He has a 10.9 Hard-Soft% that isn’t too bad, but that comes with a 32.0 Hard%, which isn’t very good. He’s an elite infield fly generators, averaging one per start, but also a ton of line drives (25.6%). A strong Toronto defense should be another thing in his favor, but hasn’t been. All in all, I see some regression here, but he has to help himself with the line drive rate too.
Jeff Locke – The ERA gap is mostly in his BABIP. He generates a lot of ground balls (51.2%), but with both high Hard and Soft rates and not a lot of pop-ups. He has an average line drive rate and has a .290 career BABIP. I’d expect him to trend back towards normal and see some improvement in his ERA toward four.
Jesse Chavez has a 3.9 HR/FB (just three HRs) and all on the road. The park is a great benefit and the Padres struggle for power on the road, so it’s possible or even likely that this holds up for at least one more start, but it’s too low a number to sustain over the long run. He had an 11.6 HR/FB last year pitching for the same team.
Michael Pineda – The HR/FB has adjusted to 11.1, which seems about right for Yankee Stadium, but the .352 BABIP is way out of whack. He does allow a significant amount of hard contact (31.0%), but that’s mostly exhibited in his ground ball rate (as far as balls in play are concerned anyway) with just a league average line drive rate. The Yankees need to be able to position themselves better to help him out a bit more. I’ve personally watched the defense betray him and lengthen innings more than once this year. The 22.0 K-BB% has him as a borderline elite pitcher even if we factor in the hard contact.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.298 | 0.341 | 0.043 | 9.9% | 91.0% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 0.281 | 0.323 | 0.042 | 15.8% | 89.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 8.5% | 88.6% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.295 | 0.288 | -0.007 | 10.0% | 87.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.295 | 0.304 | 0.009 | 12.5% | 77.1% |
| David Price | DET | 0.281 | 0.291 | 0.01 | 11.5% | 83.4% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.279 | 0.330 | 0.051 | 15.1% | 85.5% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.286 | 0.250 | -0.036 | 14.9% | 87.7% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.271 | 0.249 | -0.022 | 14.3% | 86.4% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.294 | 0.324 | 0.03 | 6.7% | 87.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.284 | 0.295 | 0.011 | 15.8% | 84.4% |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 0.269 | 0.289 | 0.02 | 13.3% | 91.6% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.300 | 0.302 | 0.002 | 4.8% | 91.2% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.327 | 0.329 | 0.002 | 10.0% | 85.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.283 | 0.254 | -0.029 | 13.1% | 84.6% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.292 | 0.316 | 0.024 | 3.8% | 92.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.321 | 0.337 | 0.016 | 13.5% | 90.9% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 17.4% | 88.7% |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | 0.305 | 0.278 | -0.027 | 0.0% | 91.3% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.306 | 0.273 | -0.033 | 8.7% | 90.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.285 | 0.288 | 0.003 | 16.7% | 88.5% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.05 | 9.1% | 84.2% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.046 | 7.9% | 86.6% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 0.307 | 0.365 | 0.058 | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 0.311 | 0.278 | -0.033 | 3.5% | 92.0% |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | 0.316 | 0.232 | -0.084 | 7.5% | 86.2% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.298 | 0.243 | -0.055 | 10.6% | 90.0% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.021 | 8.7% | 86.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.283 | 0.305 | 0.022 | 14.0% | 87.2% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 0.286 | 0.263 | -0.023 | 10.5% | 90.4% |
Alex Wood – All of his batted ball rates and indicators seem about average. The 22.3 LD% is a little high and was just below 20% last season, but he gets about a league average rate of pop ups and isn’t extremely ground ball oriented. His rate of zone contact though, is much higher than last season (91.4% vs 86.8%), so that could help in the explanation. He doesn’t have a large gap between his ERA and estimators because his high BABIP is countered by a 5.6 HR/FB that was a 3.2 HR/FB before his last start. So, yeah, regression and sustainability and such.
Felix Hernandez – It’s not the balls in play that are the problem. It’s all the ones leaving the yard, but his low BABIP counters that to narrow the overall gap in his ERA estimators. This is his 11th season in the majors. He’s had a BABIP above .307 in six of them (two separate batches of three consecutive years each). In the other five, he’s had a BABIP below .280. He has the highest IFFB% of his career this year and is generating a 2.7 GB/FB (making the 21.3 HR/FB hurt less) with a 17.5 LD%. The defense and contact authority stats seem to support him, so I can’t quibble with it too much.
Johnny Cueto still has a low BABIP, but not as extreme as the last two seasons. He has some great chart indicators a strong defense behind him, so I can’t argue too much with anything above .250.
Mike Fiers – The highest hard hit rate in baseball has to hurt at least a little here, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who has great indicators. The line drive rate (23.7%) is a little high though. Last year we were trying to deny a .224 BABIP. Go figure.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Alex Wood gets the Red Sox at home. As a lefty, he neutralized Ortiz anyway but probably loses him from the lineup altogether in an NL park. He’s not necessarily cheap, but the Red Sox have been terrible on the road and vs LHP (though they do have a few guys that should hit them).
Carlos Martinez has been great and the park switch to Minnesota is actually a downgrade as it leans a bit offensively overall and the Twins hit well there, but they don’t hit RHP well and his cost is still lower than some other top pitchers we might expect similar results from. It’s hard to believe asking this, but for the price, who would you rather have? Him or Felix? For me, he’s essentially the second tier value-wise far behind Kershaw and then we get to the rest of a closely clustered group that includes most of the other pitchers mentioned in this section.
Clayton Kershaw – Simply, there’s Kershaw, and then there’s everybody else tonight. Nobody else is even in his league and that’s on a day several other teams have their Aces going. He’s so far and above everyone as the top overall pitcher and value tonight.
David Price is essentially tied for my overall #2 spot tonight. Value wise it gets a bit more difficult as he’s the clear #2 on a few sites. Deservedly so coming off back to back dominant starts. Cincinnati does pose some threat at home, although they’re a bit banged up and may be forced to throw the B lineup out there again tonight. He’s in the running for the 2nd highest K% tonight.
Drew Hutchison – I won’t say much as he’s not nearly among the top guys tonight, but he’s cheap and not in a terrible spot tonight and generally pitches better than you’d expect at home. Value-wise, I actually have him on par with some of the top guys.
Felix Hernandez – I’m not saying I’m down on him as I still have him in my top 5 overall tonight, but considering recent events, he’s probably also 5th on that list and I think he might be accurately priced.
Jeff Locke isn’t very good, but might have a little bit of upside in his strikeout rate and faces the worst offense vs LHP in baseball. The White Sox have a 41 wRC+ vs LHP because it needs to really be emphasized and he’s really so far towards the low end of the board that we could really call this a dumpster diving special.
Jesse Chavez profiles as an average pitcher at an average price in a very good spot. Hence, value created. At the very least, he’s very likely to keep the ball in the park tonight.
Joe Blanton – The numbers love him as he’s been a weakness of the system since I started this a few years back. They love his walk rate and figure his HR rate would always straighten itself out. It didn’t and he ended up out of the league. Now they love him again in a small sample size. I obviously don’t, but will say it’s an ideal park and defense for his skill set at a rock bottom price. Even if you believe in a small bullpen sample, realize he won’t go much more than five innings, if that.
Johnny Cueto rates right with Felix in the #4 and #5 overall spots for me tonight and is locked in with the rest of the group value wise. It’s the tough matchup in a small park that holds him down just a little bit.
Madison Bumgarner is right there with Price in the #2 overall spot, but a slightly better price in a much better park might give him a very slight edge in value for me tonight. I probably don’t need more words to tell you who he is and what’s expected tonight, but I do have him as potentially the 2nd highest strikeout rate tonight with few walks.
Matt Andriese pitched really well against a bad team in his last start. Bryce Harper might tag him tonight, but I wouldn’t over rate their outburst last night. The Nationals have been a league average offense this season. He’s probably one of my more favorable dumpster diving options if you want to add some offense with one of the top guys in a GPP. I’m not saying he’ll do well, but he probably has a better chance than most of the other guys in his price range.
Michael Pineda could be ok, but I’m not as infatuated with him as in previous starts here as the hard contact rate seem to have established itself and the swing and miss stuff seems to come and go over the last month. He’s still not in a terrible spot though, even in the small park. The power from Miami leans mostly RH.
Mike Fiers – Strikeouts likely down, but the contact management portion of his game is likely to improve tonight. Overall that probably leads to him being decent, but might add more unwanted risk.
Ubaldo Jiminez – I don’t necessarily like Ubaldo, but do love my fantasy pitcher to be facing the Phillies. Weak contact rates all around here. If it gets to ball four, the Phillies may need a GPS to find first base.
NOTE: Because most of the value here seems bunched so close together tonight, I figured I’d add this little note for cash/double ups. Kershaw is the clear #1 and I’d probably try to use Bumgarner as well if affordable, but wouldn’t mind some combination of those two with Martinez and maybe even Wood or Price depending on the lineup Cincinnati puts out there. That makes weather and umpire reports pretty important tonight after Kershaw.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.