Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, August 13th
Twenty teams are playing 11 games on Monday, including the split double-header between the Marlins and Braves. We’ll list every pitcher besides Touki Toussaint, who will be making his major league debut in the first game of the DH and is off the main board anyway. He’s not the only starter making his major league debut on Monday either.
We’ll see deGrom face the Severino at Yankee Stadium and Kershaw vs Bumgarner is always interesting as much for their BvP matchups as their pitching at this point. You’re probably going to have enough options on this board.
Oh, and by the way, be on the lookout for something new I’m doing for RG, starting today, especially if you’re a New Jersey resident and have the DraftKings Sportsbook available to you.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.5 | 3.89 | 5.7 | 39.5% | 0.91 | 4.46 | 3.50 | Padres | 92 | 94 | 131 |
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.57 | 4.4 | 41.4% | 1.02 | 5.03 | 0.56 | White Sox | 89 | 92 | 41 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 3.7 | 4.86 | 5.5 | 42.3% | 1.14 | 4.86 | 5.62 | Diamondbacks | 88 | 88 | 104 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 4.1 | 4.72 | 5.5 | 54.6% | 1.04 | 4.14 | 4.24 | Blue Jays | 98 | 102 | 97 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | -4.9 | 3.15 | 6.2 | 47.9% | 0.90 | 2.87 | 4.25 | Giants | 82 | 91 | 76 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -4.7 | 4.30 | 6.0 | 58.8% | 0.91 | 3.59 | 6.17 | Angels | 100 | 86 | 126 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -2.2 | 4.94 | 5.0 | 42.6% | 1.04 | 5.16 | 4.04 | Indians | 98 | 108 | 101 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -6.1 | 3.28 | 6.5 | 44.7% | 1.03 | 3.17 | 2.22 | Yankees | 125 | 109 | 120 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 7.4 | 3.33 | 6.1 | 46.2% | 1.03 | 3.13 | 4.36 | Mets | 98 | 94 | 96 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -4.7 | 3.96 | 6.3 | 42.4% | 0.90 | 4.56 | 4.51 | Dodgers | 107 | 90 | 107 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -1.6 | 3.89 | 5.5 | 45.4% | 0.95 | 3.84 | 3.81 | Athletics | 92 | 103 | 103 |
| Merandy Gonzalez | Marlins | -0.8 | 4.36 | 34.5% | 0.99 | 4.67 | Braves | 94 | 96 | 110 | ||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 6.1 | 4.09 | 5.7 | 39.8% | 1.04 | 4.27 | 3.57 | Reds | 98 | 94 | 64 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.7 | 4.14 | 5.5 | 41.2% | 0.99 | 3.85 | 3.66 | Marlins | 85 | 84 | 45 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 4.01 | 6.3 | 51.8% | 0.93 | 3.54 | 4.24 | Nationals | 89 | 98 | 99 | |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | -0.8 | 3.91 | 5.9 | 54.1% | 0.99 | 3.76 | 3.42 | Braves | 94 | 96 | 110 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -4.8 | 5.21 | 5.8 | 34.4% | 1.02 | 5.92 | 4.79 | Tigers | 89 | 75 | 67 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 1.7 | 4.36 | 5.7 | 44.9% | 0.95 | 4.31 | 5.82 | Mariners | 105 | 103 | 120 |
| Tommy Milone | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.33 | 4.7 | 35.8% | 0.93 | 4.54 | 3.59 | Cardinals | 90 | 103 | 122 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.2 | 3.60 | 6.2 | 44.8% | 1.14 | 3.42 | 4.77 | Rangers | 108 | 97 | 120 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Blue Jays | -5.2 | 1.04 | Royals | 80 | 82 | 59 |
Andrew Heaney has allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in seven of his last 10 starts and has more than six strikeouts in just three of those starts. However, he’s also completed seven innings in six of those starts and is still missing bats at a league average rate over that span (21.1 K%). The Padres are the hottest offense on the board (131 wRC+, 20.9 HR/FB last seven days) and do have some RH power, while he’s allowed 8.0% Barrels/BBE this year, but he’s done so with just an 86.5 mph aEV and should be able to find some strikeouts in this lineup (15.6 K-BB% vs LHP).
Artie Lewicki has started just two games, but six of his 10 relief appearances have lasted at least three innings as well. In his only major league outing over the last month, he struck out five of 10 Angels. He’s also struck out 25 of 96 AAA batters over that span. There are certainly some problems with the amount of loud contact he’s allowed (.395 xwOBA, 91.2 mph aEV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE and 45.5% 95+ mph aEV are all worst on the board), but this is a great spot for him (White Sox 18.5 K-BB% on the road, 19.2 K-BB% vs RHP) against the coldest offense on the board (41 wRC+, 30.4 K-BB% last seven days).
Clayton Kershaw struck out a single one of the 24 Oakland batters he faced in his last start with a season low 4.1 SwStr% after having been above 11% in each of his previous four starts. While his velocity has been dropping this season, it wasn’t down any further in this last start. This is frustrating because while he may never return completely to super-human form, he had been improving and has still gone at least six innings in seven straight starts. Overall, he still has the second best xwOBA on this board (.294) and is in one of the top park adjusted matchups from a run prevention standpoint, even if the Giants have a lower 21.1 K% vs LHP than against RHP.
Jacob deGrom has at least nine strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has completed EIGHT innings in six of his last 11 starts. Remove starts before and after a short DL sting and he’s failed to complete six innings just one other time, his first start of the season, by a single out. He tops the board with a 30.7 K%, 15.1 SwStr%, 2.94 SIERA, .259 xwOBA, and 3.7% Barrels/BBE. An elite strikeout pitcher and great contact manager. He moves across town to face a punishing offense (125 wRC+, 18.6 HR/FB at home, 109 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP), who have a team 120 wRC+, 17.2 K% and 20.2 HR/FB over the last week even without a couple of their middle of the order bats.
Marco Gonzales allowed seven runs with two HRs last time out, but it was in Texas. He had allowed four runs with two more HRs in his previous start, but also completed seven innings. His velocity has dropped slightly over the last month or so, but he’s really only had the one bad start in a miserable park. It was the first time he’d failed to complete six innings in nine starts. He’s recorded a seventh inning out in 10 of 23 starts and has a league average strikeout rate. That’s a pitcher with some daily fantasy usefulness. Oakland isn’t as negative a run environment as Seattle, but still no the negative side and despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, the A’s tend to lean more towards an average offense against southpaws. Man, do they hit the ball HARD though. He’s had two very different starts against this offense this year. In April, they got him for four runs in 3.1 innings. In May, he shut them out for seven innings. He’s struck out 11 of 42 A’s faced this year.
Miles Mikolas struck out just one of 25 Marlins and does not have what we normally look for in a strikeout rate for our daily fantasy pitching (16.9%). Let’s get that right out of the way. He does have a pretty stable floor though with a few things in his favor, even if the opposing offense is not (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP). In more than half of his 23 starts, he’s recorded a seventh inning out and he’s allowed more than two runs just six times this year (never more than four). He has the lowest aEV on the board (85.1 mph) in a great park.
Sean Reid-Foley is a former second round pick in 2014, who’s prospect stock seemed to drop over the last year (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs). That said, he has been above a 27% strikeout rate over 23 AA and AAA starts this season and has dropped his walk rate to 7.9% over the AAA portion of that (15 starts) all this year. He would seem to have some upside and is in a great run prevention spot, but the Royals have just a 20 K% at home and vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.272 – 79.2% – 12.1 – 14.6% unearned run rate) is in one of the top spots on the board (Marlins 16.7 K-BB% on the road, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 45 wRC+, 5.4 HR/FB last seven days), but has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts and completed six innings only once in his last four. While still an above average rate, his strikeouts are down and he’s allowed a hard hit rate above 40% in four of those six starts as well. He may be reasonably priced enough on FanDuel ($8.9K) in this spot, but is the third highest priced pitcher on DraftKings ($10.5K).
Mike Clevinger (.299 – 75.9% – 8.5) struck out 11 Reds about a month ago, but allowed five runs in six innings. His strikeout rate has been very streaky this season (11 of last 50 now) as has his walk rate and they seem to increase and decrease in concert (one walk last 50 batters faced). He has recorded a seventh inning out in more than half of his 23 starts, but while Cincinnati may not be as positive a run environment as Cleveland, it’s more power friendly and the Reds have just an 11.9 K-BB% vs RHP. I feel he’s pretty accurately priced here. There’s a chance he goes off for double digit strikeouts, but he also may allow three to four runs with five or six Ks.
Madison Bumgarner (.268 – 80.2 LOB% – 6.9) struck out seven Astros through seven shutout innings in his last start. It was just the fourth time in 12 starts he’d completed seven innings and only the second time he’s struck out more than five in seven starts. For the season, he’s missing bats at a below average rate. The upside is that he’s still managing contact well and is pitching in the most negative run environment on the board, but he’s facing a much better offense than their 90 wRC+ vs LHP this year, considering recent RH additions.
Sean Manaea (.240 – 76.3% – 12.4) walked three of 16 Dodgers in his last start before exiting very early. It was his fourth time in eight starts with two strikeouts or less. He’s still sitting on a double digit SwStr%, but just can’t seem to put batters away and probably won’t start with a Seattle lineup that has just a 20 K% vs LHP.
Brad Keller (.300 – 74.3% – 4.6) simply can’t sustain that HR rate, which would run his estimators up around four and a half runs He has a 13.6 BB% over his last seven starts and it’s not like he’s in any great kind of spot against the Blue Jays. That said, he is cheaper than his opponent on DraftKings and should pitch deeper into this game.
Reynaldo Lopez (.259 – 73.6% – 10.8) has an ERA above four with estimators a run or more higher. The Tigers aren’t very good, but don’t strike out a ton.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Luis Severino did bounce back in a sense against the White Sox last time out. He struck out eight through seven innings, which was more than his previous two starts combined, but there were also some continued issues. His velocity hasn’t been bad, but has now dropped slightly in three straight starts, he still allowed three runs with a 36.8 LD%, 31.6 GB% and 26.3 Hard-Soft% in that start and it was against one of the worst disciplined offenses in baseball. The Mets aren’t a quality offense, but they’re a bit better disciplined (12.2 K-BB% vs RHP). I don’t hate him today, but I don’t necessarily believe he’s been entirely fixed yet.
Zack Greinke is not exactly a great contact manager and may be in the worst park adjusted matchup on the board in Texas. He’s struck out just 15 of his last 75 batters and walked a season high four last time out.
Tommy Milone struck out 15 of 47 Mets and Marlins with a good looking changeup, thrown about 40% of the time to RHBs through three starts with a 41.5% whiff rate. He also threw 39 fastballs to right-handed Braves last time out and three of them left the yard. I suppose if the changeup is working again, he is pitching in a power suppressing environment (though not as much in the warmer weather), but he’s always struggled against RHBs. They’re above a .400 wOBA against him so far this year.
Clayton Richard has a -3.6 K-BB% over his last eight starts. He’s allowed five HRs over his last four starts with just a 47.7 GB%.
Home Bailey
Merendy Gonzalez has previously thrown several multiple inning outings out of the pen for the Marlins earlier in the season. He reached AA for the first time this season and has just a 4.6 K-BB% though 14 starts there and is not a highly valued prospect despite being jumped to the majors without a lot of upper level experience at just 22 years-old.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 6.8% | 17.9% | 22.4% | Season | 23.1% | 6.4% | 12.7% | 19.5% | Road | 22.6% | 7.3% | 19.3% | 19.5% | L14Days | 22.5% | 4.1% | 12.5% | 41.2% |
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 28.3% | Season | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 33.7% | Home | 15.5% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 28.9% | L14Days | 50.0% | 20.0% | ||
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 13.8% | 4.6% | 14.3% | 21.8% | Season | 13.1% | 4.0% | 16.5% | 28.1% | Home | 14.4% | 5.3% | 17.1% | 23.2% | L14Days | 7.7% | 3.9% | 15.8% | 43.5% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 15.7% | Season | 15.6% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 15.7% | Home | 16.7% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 22.9% | L14Days | 25.0% | 11.5% | 18.2% | |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 27.5% | 4.3% | 13.9% | 6.7% | Season | 24.2% | 4.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | Home | 30.1% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 11.4% | L14Days | 16.3% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 38.4% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 8.2% | 17.4% | 17.7% | Season | 16.4% | 9.5% | 16.3% | 21.7% | Home | 18.7% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 19.5% | L14Days | 8.7% | 10.9% | 25.0% | 40.6% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.1% | 8.4% | 15.5% | 21.4% | Season | 14.7% | 7.4% | 17.5% | 29.5% | Home | 14.4% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 21.7% | L14Days | 16.3% | 2.0% | 16.7% | 32.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 29.2% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 8.3% | Season | 30.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.0% | Road | 26.8% | 6.0% | 15.4% | 9.2% | L14Days | 37.3% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.4% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | Season | 27.7% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 13.1% | Home | 29.2% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 7.9% | L14Days | 18.5% | 5.6% | 13.3% | 12.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 15.9% | Season | 20.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 17.5% | Road | 19.8% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 15.0% | L14Days | 22.6% | 11.3% | 37.1% | |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 4.8% | 14.5% | 15.2% | Season | 21.5% | 4.4% | 13.3% | 18.5% | Road | 19.1% | 5.0% | 16.9% | 22.4% | L14Days | 20.7% | 2.4% | 20.8% | 19.4% |
| Merandy Gonzalez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 17.2% | Season | 19.5% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 17.2% | Road | 21.3% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 21.5% | L14Days | ||||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 16.3% | Season | 24.1% | 7.7% | 17.1% | Road | 25.5% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 18.6% | L14Days | 22.0% | 2.0% | 14.3% | ||
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 14.4% | Season | 28.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 16.1% | Home | 25.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 15.8% | L14Days | 24.0% | 6.0% | 15.4% | 25.7% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 13.3% | Season | 16.9% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 13.3% | Home | 16.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 16.9% | L14Days | 13.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 6.0% | 20.0% | 13.8% | Season | 19.6% | 6.0% | 20.0% | 13.8% | Road | 21.9% | 4.7% | 18.8% | 15.2% | L14Days | 21.3% | 2.1% | 16.7% | 11.2% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | Season | 16.4% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 12.8% | Road | 15.3% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 16.4% | L14Days | 17.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 6.6% | 11.5% | 19.1% | Season | 16.9% | 5.0% | 12.4% | 20.9% | Home | 19.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 17.3% | L14Days | 15.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | |
| Tommy Milone | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 5.8% | 22.4% | 12.2% | Season | 25.7% | 16.0% | 18.2% | Road | 17.8% | 5.4% | 15.8% | 12.1% | L14Days | 25.0% | 19.0% | 12.8% | ||
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 5.8% | 14.6% | 19.3% | Season | 25.4% | 4.9% | 14.4% | 23.9% | Road | 24.5% | 4.9% | 15.9% | 11.7% | L14Days | 18.0% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 16.6% |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 25.2% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 19.4% | LH | 23.9% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 17.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.6% | 20.9% | 1.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.5% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 18.1% | RH | 25.9% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 11.1% | L7Days | 35.9% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 7.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.9% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 18.0% | RH | 23.6% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 20.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% | 15.5% | 21.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 17.1% | RH | 22.9% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 11.8% |
| Giants | Road | 24.2% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 18.4% | LH | 21.1% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 19.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 18.9% |
| Angels | Road | 20.0% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 17.4% | LH | 21.2% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 18.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.2% | 18.5% | 27.1% |
| Indians | Road | 19.9% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 19.4% | RH | 19.3% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 25.2% | L7Days | 17.5% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 18.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | 18.6% | 21.5% | RH | 22.5% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 18.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.0% | 20.2% | 13.7% |
| Mets | Road | 21.7% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 19.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 16.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 24.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 18.3% | LH | 22.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 20.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 17.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.3% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 25.7% | LH | 22.8% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 25.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 4.3% | 14.9% | 41.1% |
| Braves | Home | 20.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 19.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.1% | 15.3% | 19.0% |
| Reds | Home | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 24.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 19.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 16.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.0% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 13.3% | RH | 22.6% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 15.4% | L7Days | 16.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 15.0% | RH | 20.3% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 24.0% |
| Braves | Home | 20.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 19.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.1% | 15.3% | 19.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 23.9% | RH | 22.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 17.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 27.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.4% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 18.5% | LH | 20.0% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 14.7% | 4.0% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.6% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 24.0% | LH | 21.4% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 22.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.8% | 16.9% | 25.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.5% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 23.8% | RH | 25.2% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 21.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| Royals | Home | 20.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 24.3% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 21.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 15.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 23.1% | 11.4% | 2.03 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 |
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 | 50.0% | 15.2% | 3.29 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 13.1% | 5.3% | 2.47 | 9.4% | 4.4% | 2.14 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 15.6% | 8.3% | 1.88 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.04 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 24.2% | 11.0% | 2.20 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 1.93 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 16.4% | 8.7% | 1.89 | 10.8% | 5.6% | 1.93 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 14.7% | 8.2% | 1.79 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 30.7% | 15.1% | 2.03 | 30.6% | 13.8% | 2.22 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 27.7% | 12.2% | 2.27 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 1.84 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.2% | 9.6% | 2.10 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 2.05 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 21.5% | 9.1% | 2.36 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 2.41 |
| Merandy Gonzalez | Marlins | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.22 | |||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 24.1% | 11.6% | 2.08 | 27.4% | 11.5% | 2.38 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 28.0% | 10.4% | 2.69 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 2.56 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 16.9% | 8.9% | 1.90 | 14.4% | 10.1% | 1.43 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 19.6% | 10.2% | 1.92 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.94 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 16.4% | 8.7% | 1.89 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 1.76 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 16.9% | 10.2% | 1.66 | 15.6% | 11.6% | 1.34 |
| Tommy Milone | Nationals | 25.7% | 13.2% | 1.95 | 25.7% | 13.2% | 1.95 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 25.4% | 11.2% | 2.27 | 27.1% | 11.4% | 2.38 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Blue Jays |
Miles Mikolas had three straight starts above an 11 SwStr% prior to his most recent outing. Before that, his last double digit outing was in mid-June.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.96 | 3.86 | -0.10 | 3.96 | -0.11 | 3.86 | -0.10 | 3.58 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 3.93 | -0.38 | 3.98 | -0.33 | 4.01 | -0.30 |
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 4.76 | 4.24 | -0.52 | 4.76 | -0.43 | 4.06 | -0.70 | 5.23 | 0.47 | 3.00 | 0.56 | -2.44 | 0.92 | -2.08 | -0.18 | -3.18 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 5.18 | 4.75 | -0.43 | 5.18 | -0.56 | 5.21 | 0.03 | 6.17 | 0.99 | 7.61 | 5.51 | -2.10 | 5.64 | -1.97 | 5.26 | -2.35 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 3.57 | 4.72 | 1.15 | 3.57 | 0.84 | 3.64 | 0.07 | 5.63 | 2.06 | 5.86 | 4.87 | -0.99 | 4.41 | -1.45 | 4.16 | -1.70 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2.58 | 3.39 | 0.81 | 2.58 | 0.55 | 3.10 | 0.52 | 3.29 | 0.71 | 2.51 | 3.60 | 1.09 | 3.47 | 0.96 | 3.30 | 0.79 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 5.13 | 4.57 | -0.56 | 5.13 | -0.84 | 4.62 | -0.51 | 4.80 | -0.33 | 8.25 | 6.21 | -2.04 | 5.73 | -2.52 | 6.86 | -1.39 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.19 | 4.99 | -1.20 | 6.19 | -1.34 | 5.61 | -0.58 | 5.94 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 3.72 | -0.78 | 3.25 | -1.25 | 3.32 | -1.18 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.77 | 2.94 | 1.17 | 1.77 | 1.01 | 2.20 | 0.43 | 2.18 | 0.41 | 2.17 | 2.83 | 0.66 | 2.92 | 0.75 | 1.67 | -0.50 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 3.11 | 3.30 | 0.19 | 3.11 | 0.09 | 3.02 | -0.09 | 2.85 | -0.26 | 7.77 | 3.70 | -4.07 | 3.69 | -4.08 | 4.70 | -3.07 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 2.69 | 4.54 | 1.85 | 2.69 | 1.62 | 3.58 | 0.89 | 4.47 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 4.81 | 2.71 | 4.38 | 2.28 | 3.38 | 1.28 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 3.79 | 3.70 | -0.09 | 3.79 | -0.29 | 3.58 | -0.21 | 3.63 | -0.16 | 5.55 | 3.59 | -1.96 | 3.51 | -2.04 | 4.96 | -0.59 |
| Merandy Gonzalez | Marlins | 5.71 | 4.36 | -1.35 | 5.71 | -1.12 | 4.94 | -0.77 | 7.84 | 2.13 | |||||||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.38 | 3.92 | 0.54 | 3.38 | 0.53 | 3.34 | -0.04 | 3.70 | 0.32 | 3.52 | 3.40 | -0.12 | 3.65 | 0.13 | 3.83 | 0.31 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.98 | 3.73 | 0.75 | 2.98 | 0.68 | 3.59 | 0.61 | 3.05 | 0.07 | 4.43 | 4.02 | -0.41 | 4.19 | -0.24 | 4.45 | 0.02 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.74 | 4.01 | 1.27 | 2.74 | 0.99 | 3.23 | 0.49 | 3.32 | 0.58 | 3.10 | 4.21 | 1.11 | 3.83 | 0.73 | 3.25 | 0.15 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 4.32 | 3.90 | -0.42 | 4.32 | -0.51 | 4.61 | 0.29 | 4.63 | 0.31 | 2.92 | 3.77 | 0.85 | 3.81 | 0.89 | 4.45 | 1.53 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4.30 | 5.31 | 1.01 | 4.30 | 1.35 | 5.13 | 0.83 | 6.43 | 2.13 | 6.10 | 5.47 | -0.63 | 5.76 | -0.34 | 6.83 | 0.73 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 3.50 | 4.40 | 0.90 | 3.50 | 0.80 | 4.26 | 0.76 | 3.85 | 0.35 | 3.76 | 4.62 | 0.86 | 4.42 | 0.66 | 3.53 | -0.23 |
| Tommy Milone | Nationals | 5.50 | 3.21 | -2.29 | 5.50 | -2.17 | 3.93 | -1.57 | 3.08 | -2.42 | 5.50 | 3.21 | -2.29 | 3.33 | -2.17 | 3.93 | -1.57 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 2.89 | 3.41 | 0.52 | 2.89 | 0.42 | 3.52 | 0.63 | 2.58 | -0.31 | 1.26 | 3.15 | 1.89 | 2.89 | 1.63 | 3.15 | 1.89 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Blue Jays | ||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 |
Artie Lewicki has a .358 BABIP and 67.5 LOB%.
Clayton Kershaw has an 81.3 LOB%. He has a 79.2% career rate, but isn’t really the same pitcher right now.
Jacob deGrom has an 83.8 LOB%, 11.8% unearned run rate and 6.8 HR/FB. Full regression should probably not be expected because he’s been such a strong contact manager on top of the strikeouts.
Miles Mikolas has a 7.8 HR/FB, but manages contact exceptionally well in power suppressing environment.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.292 | 0.282 | -0.010 | 41.2% | 23.5% | 11.1% | 85.1% | 36.5% |
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.358 | 0.068 | 41.8% | 24.5% | 16.2% | 89.6% | 34.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.276 | -0.025 | 43.4% | 21.7% | 8.9% | 92.8% | 32.4% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.312 | 0.300 | -0.012 | 54.6% | 21.2% | 7.7% | 90.5% | 36.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.287 | 0.283 | -0.004 | 47.9% | 23.4% | 7.4% | 87.5% | 39.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.306 | 0.284 | -0.022 | 56.4% | 20.9% | 7.1% | 88.7% | 37.5% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.295 | 0.310 | 0.015 | 40.7% | 24.0% | 7.2% | 91.5% | 40.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.301 | 0.287 | -0.014 | 44.8% | 23.2% | 16.2% | 79.3% | 31.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.287 | 0.301 | 0.014 | 42.5% | 23.5% | 9.7% | 83.8% | 35.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.295 | 0.268 | -0.027 | 43.7% | 22.8% | 12.5% | 90.1% | 34.7% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.298 | 0.314 | 0.016 | 45.5% | 25.1% | 9.2% | 85.8% | 28.3% |
| Merandy Gonzalez | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.364 | 0.071 | 34.5% | 31.0% | 5.0% | 88.5% | 36.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 40.3% | 21.2% | 9.8% | 83.1% | 35.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.283 | 0.272 | -0.011 | 43.7% | 19.6% | 12.1% | 83.6% | 37.2% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.287 | 0.271 | -0.016 | 51.8% | 21.8% | 11.3% | 88.7% | 32.4% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.259 | -0.034 | 54.1% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 84.5% | 31.0% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.289 | 0.259 | -0.030 | 33.9% | 18.1% | 13.9% | 86.2% | 45.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.240 | -0.035 | 44.0% | 20.7% | 9.8% | 88.8% | 34.9% |
| Tommy Milone | Nationals | 0.289 | 0.333 | 0.044 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 16.0% | 89.2% | 13.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.272 | -0.012 | 42.3% | 23.8% | 10.8% | 83.5% | 26.7% |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Blue Jays | 0.308 |
Artie Lewicki allows way too much hard contact and you can see it in his line drive rate more than the power. Three of his four HRs have come in one outing. He has generated a decent amount of popups too though.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.329 | -0.027 | 0.377 | -0.006 | 0.345 | -0.028 | -1.400 | 86.5 | 8.0 | 35.700 | 364 |
| Artie Lewicki | Tigers | 0.395 | -0.043 | 0.382 | -0.059 | 0.147 | 0.154 | -0.600 | 91.2 | 9.1 | 45.500 | 110 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.370 | -0.024 | 0.359 | 0.012 | 0.395 | 0.011 | -1.900 | 89.5 | 7.5 | 40.800 | 453 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.332 | -0.034 | 0.341 | -0.062 | 0.359 | -0.011 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 4.8 | 32.600 | 273 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.294 | -0.018 | 0.283 | -0.013 | 0.283 | 0.008 | -0.100 | 86.8 | 5.2 | 34.400 | 288 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.359 | -0.029 | 0.322 | 0.005 | 0.439 | -0.050 | -2.000 | 89.3 | 6.1 | 39.400 | 442 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.395 | -0.026 | 0.385 | 0.008 | 0.322 | -0.021 | -0.100 | 89.2 | 9.1 | 45.300 | 285 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.259 | -0.016 | 0.282 | 0.004 | 0.252 | -0.010 | 1.100 | 85.7 | 3.7 | 28.600 | 374 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.308 | -0.025 | 0.294 | -0.033 | 0.356 | 0.056 | -0.400 | 87.9 | 7.3 | 33.200 | 397 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.317 | -0.029 | 0.324 | -0.007 | 0.334 | -0.050 | -0.200 | 86.3 | 6.4 | 30.700 | 218 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.322 | -0.011 | 0.353 | -0.006 | 0.303 | 0.065 | -0.500 | 88.6 | 5.6 | 36.500 | 411 |
| Merandy Gonzalez | Marlins | 0.374 | 0.001 | 0.377 | 0.021 | -2.000 | 89.1 | 6.9 | 39.700 | 58 | ||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.305 | -0.010 | 0.282 | -0.014 | 0.286 | 0.005 | 0.400 | 86.6 | 5.7 | 33.000 | 403 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.302 | -0.016 | 0.321 | -0.011 | 0.327 | 0.021 | -0.400 | 88.6 | 8.2 | 34.600 | 318 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.298 | -0.036 | 0.281 | -0.031 | 0.325 | -0.032 | -0.300 | 85.1 | 4.9 | 29.000 | 451 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.326 | -0.017 | 0.318 | -0.044 | 0.295 | -0.001 | 0.700 | 86 | 8.9 | 27.600 | 123 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.369 | -0.044 | 0.350 | 0.005 | 0.428 | -0.065 | -0.300 | 88.3 | 8.3 | 36.300 | 422 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.339 | -0.056 | 0.325 | -0.035 | 0.313 | -0.005 | 0.300 | 88 | 8.5 | 38.300 | 449 |
| Tommy Milone | Nationals | 0.312 | 0.029 | 0.334 | 0.023 | 0.312 | 0.029 | -0.400 | 85.4 | 7.3 | 30.900 | 55 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.318 | -0.037 | 0.303 | -0.001 | 0.253 | -0.048 | -0.800 | 88 | 7.0 | 34.600 | 413 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Blue Jays |
Clayton Kershaw is still generating a lot of weak contact. In fact, a large portion of tonight’s board appear to be strong contact managers with low aEVs.
h3=. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Are you ready for this? I don’t have a top value tonight. I went through all of the pitchers and it just ended up that way. There are a number of high priced pitchers, but the only one above a 28 K% is very expensive in a potentially terrible spot. Even the lone Tier Two guy is not someone with massive upside. I wish I could give you a name or two here, but pricing is really tight. Some of the omissions could easily go off, I just think the odds are against them to do so considering the price. A lot of the high priced guys are really borderline Fourth Tier arms for me tonight. Except Greinke. I’m really concerned about him in Texas.
Value Tier Two
Miles Mikolas is not going to win you a GPP, but he’s probably not going to lose you a cash game either. He induces a lot of weak contact and pitches deep into games, costing a reasonable $8K on either site. He probably won’t exceed 25 DK points, but should get you 15-20 most times in this spot. Strikeouts had actually been up recently until his last start. This is very much not a high upside spot though.
Value Tier Three
Marco Gonzales got beat up in Texas and did allow four runs against the Blue Jays before that (four HRs over those two starts), but he’s still generally pitching well and deep into games. An encouraging sign is a .303 xwOBA over the last month that’s actually lower than his season mark and 65 points below his actual wOBA over that span. He’s in a manageable spot at a reasonable cost around $8K on either site with a possible expectation of six to seven innings with a league average strikeout rate.
Andrew Heaney does have some flaws, but is reasonably priced in a favorable situation. He may allow a few runs, but may be able to get through seven innings with some strikeouts.
Clayton Kershaw (2) is in a great run prevention spot and we probably shouldn’t hold his inability to miss bats in his last start against him yet. His cost is down to exactly $10K on DraftKings, where he’s just the fourth most expensive pitcher tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jacob deGrom (1) is the most expensive arm on the board in one of the most difficult spots. Sure, it’s not as bad without Judge in the lineup, but still plenty tough.
Artie Lewicki probably isn’t very good and probably won’t go deep into this game, but he’s cheap in a great spot.
Sean Reid-Foley is in a great run prevention spot without any strikeout upside. That said, he’s struck out more than a quarter of batters faced in the minors, the Royals have never seen him and he costs next to nothing.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.