Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 11th
Starting the week with a nice, digestible eight game slate, the first thing I noticed was such a disproportionate percentage of lefties tonight. Seven of them, plus one knuckle-baller, which is almost like a lefty, which makes it half the board. The point being, I don’t ever recall writing about such a lefty-heavy slate.
While Monday may be lacking a true, clear cut Ace (at least in terms of their 2018 work), it’s also lacking many bad pitchers.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5.6 | 3.93 | 5.5 | 37.2% | 0.92 | 4.92 | 4.77 | Mariners | 99 | 110 | 108 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 7.1 | 3.40 | 6.2 | 44.9% | 0.98 | 3.33 | 3.85 | White Sox | 96 | 98 | 64 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -8.7 | 4.09 | 5.8 | 35.0% | 0.99 | 4.63 | 4.05 | Red Sox | 101 | 120 | 93 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.5 | 3.87 | 4.9 | 45.0% | 0.92 | 3.60 | 3.42 | Padres | 72 | 84 | 111 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -2.5 | 4.01 | 5.5 | 44.6% | 1.00 | 3.92 | 4.67 | Diamondbacks | 87 | 77 | 127 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | -6.8 | 4.36 | 5.2 | 48.4% | 0.92 | 5.03 | 4.05 | Cardinals | 92 | 92 | 107 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 12.6 | 3.98 | 6.0 | 43.5% | 1.02 | 3.73 | 2.63 | Brewers | 92 | 85 | 118 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 6.3 | 4.68 | 5.3 | 40.5% | 1.02 | 4.57 | 3.02 | Cubs | 108 | 105 | 61 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -5 | 5.65 | 5.3 | 42.2% | 0.98 | 5.78 | 5.28 | Indians | 88 | 103 | 87 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -6.3 | 3.60 | 6.6 | 41.0% | 0.88 | 4.16 | 2.90 | Marlins | 82 | 85 | 98 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.5 | 3.92 | 5.8 | 50.4% | 1.00 | 3.25 | 2.68 | Pirates | 88 | 107 | 83 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | -1.3 | 3.81 | 4.7 | 39.0% | 0.92 | 4.23 | 3.75 | Blue Jays | 94 | 88 | 122 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | -4.9 | 4.57 | 5.5 | 50.6% | 0.92 | 4.50 | 3.92 | Rays | 105 | 103 | 86 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 5.6 | 4.67 | 5.9 | 45.0% | 0.99 | 5.03 | 3.65 | Orioles | 96 | 82 | 51 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | -2.1 | 4.08 | 5.3 | 38.6% | 0.92 | 4.43 | 5.52 | Angels | 114 | 94 | 113 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | -3.7 | 4.58 | 5.0 | 37.2% | 0.88 | 4.92 | 5.00 | Giants | 92 | 103 | 138 |
Andrew Heaney is an upper-middle of the board strikeout rate with a 12.5 SwStr% over the last month that suggests a bit more. He ties for the lowest aEV on the board (85.5 mph), which may help explain the 7.1 HR/FB this season. However, he has an 18.2 HR/FB on the road since last season. He’s coming off a one-hit shutout of the Royals, striking out just four, but with a 13.8 SwStr%. He remains in a favorable park, which dampens a potent offense somewhat. The Mariners have shown a surprising lack of power against LHP (9.6 HR/FB), but do have the highest HR/FB rate on the board over the last week (21.1%) and somewhat compensate with a lack of strikeouts (20% vs LHP, 19.1% last seven days).
Carlos Carrasco had allowed at least three runs in four straight starts before striking out 10 Brewers (second highest total for the season) in seven one-run innings. There’s been a lot of up and down to his season. He’s pitched at least two outs in to the seventh in seven of his 13 starts, but has allowed at least five runs in five of the other six with four strikeouts or less four times in those shorter starts. He has a top four K% and SwStr% on today’s board, but the former number is still a bit less than we’ve come to expect from him (24.4%) and both numbers have dropped over the last month despite his most recent performance. His 89.4 mph aEV is second worst on today’s board. However, he’s in a favorable spot against a White Sox offense with a split low 7.8 Hard-Soft% at home, 17.1 K-BB% (including a split low 7 BB%) vs RHP and 28.2 K% (second worst) with a 3.8 HR/FB (worst) over the last week.
Jack Flaherty has allowed 10 runs (seven earned) over 10 innings to the Marlins and Pirates in his last two starts and has allowed a HR in four straight. Still, his 26.1 K% is third best on today’s board with an ERA and estimators all around or below three and a half for the season and over the last month. While he does allow more hard contact that we might be comfortable, he’s done an interesting job of abstaining from Barrels, despite a league average ground ball rate. That may not be sustainable. What he does have is a wipeout slider that he throws 28.2% of the time. It has a .260 xwOBA, 82.5 mph aEV and 41.2 Whiff%. He should throw that pitch even more. The Padres have a split worst 72 wRC+ on the road, including a 21.2 K-BB% that’s a split worst in both directions tonight. Their 25.7 K% vs RHP is also a split worst tonight. The Padres also have a -24.8 wSL that’s second worst in baseball, but it gets even worse on a per pitch basis (or per 100 pitches). Their -1.84 wSL/C is by far the worst mark in baseball, by nearly a full half point.
Joe Musgrove will have his first road start for the Pirates, in an Arizona park that’s playing as the eighth most pitcher friendly in baseball (more so than his fairly neutral home park) according to ESPN park factors for just this season. He’s coming off his only poor start against the Dodgers (5 IP – 2 HR – 1 BB – 5 K – 22 BF), but is missing bats at a perfectly league average rate and has the top xwOBA on the board (.271) with the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.6%). It’s a bit strange when looking at his pitch mix, that the Pirates have seemed to emphasize his cutter, which doesn’t miss bats (3.4 Whiff%) and has a 17 degree average launch angle. None of the pitches look significantly better on their own, but he’s throwing five of them at least 13% of the time and it seems the less frequent he’s been throwing them, the lower the xwOBA is according to Statcast. The Diamondbacks have a 10.1 BB% at home and against RHP that are both split highs, but control is a major strength for this pitcher and the opposing offense is terrible against RHP otherwise (77 wRC+, 25.1 K%). They are one of the hottest offenses on the board, but are also coming off a trip to Coors in that time span.
Jose Quintana struck out 10 in his last start and threw six shutout innings in the one prior. Those were against the Phillies and Mets and must be taken with a grain of salt. His .267 xwOBA is the lowest mark on the board over the last 30 days, but he, like Flaherty above, has also been able to stay off Barrels despite high exit velocities. While Milwaukee may be the only positive run environment on the slate, it’s nearly neutral and the home team has just an 85 wRC+ vs LHP with a board worst 23.8 K-BB% over the last week. Beware the power though (14.8 HR/FB at home, 20 HR/FB over the last week). The underlying 9.7 K-BB% vs LHP does not support the overall poor results either.
Madison Bumgarner struck out just three of 25 Diamondbacks faced in his first start of the season, but needed just 82 pitches to get through six innings and passed the eye test. While he threw his cutter and sinker one-third of the time each with a high xwOBA (.350+), they both had a 20+ Whiff% and his secondaries (changeup and curve) looked sharp, staying away from the center of the plate. Velocity was around where it needed to be. Tonight, he may have the top matchup on the board in Miami, which is probably the most pitcher friendly park on the board. The plate discipline is not bad (10.8 K-BB% vs LHP), but the power (8.5 HR/FB at home and 9.2 HR/FB vs LHP are both split worsts) are nearly non-existent.
Patrick Corbin is not striking out batters like he did in April, but still has a 32.7 K% on the season that tops the board and a 29.9 K% over the last month that is also tied for the top spot. He’s had a couple of slip ups with four or more runs in two of his last five starts, but that’s been the only two times it’s happened all season and he piled up 18 strikeouts in those two poor starts. His .283 xwOBA is best on the board for those with more than three starts. The biggest issue is that the Pirates are a well-disciplined bunch (9.7 K-BB% vs LHP, 8.0 K-BB% last seven days). They do not hit the ball very hard though with a split worst 9.1 Hard-Soft% vs LHP and -3.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Ryan Yarbrough is starting tonight. This better not be some chicanery where he is removed in the second inning. His last seven “outings” have all lasted at least five innings, the last four more than that each. He’s struck out seven to nine batters in three of those not-starts, but four or fewer in each of the other four. It seems there’s some upside there, but the SwStr% is a bit below average and it’s not been a consistent thing, though he has a 13 SwStr% over his last two starts. He hasn’t been bad and his 27.3% 95+ mph EV is best on the board among those with more than one start this year (this will actually be his fourth). The Blue Jays have been less than you’d expect against LHP, but no single number stands out.
Sam Gaviglio just threw seven shutout innings at the Yankees and only has one start in which he’s allowed more than three runs (four against the Red Sox), in which he still pitched six innings. He struck out 29 of 108 AAA batters this season and has raised his major league strikeout rate 7.1 points from last season with a corresponding 2.3 point increase in SwStr%. He’s not blowing people away, but that’s league average and useful. The strange thing is that none of his pitches appear different by velocity and only the slider has just a little bit more spin, but his top three pitches (sinker, slider, change) are all missing a few more bats this year. The Rays have just a 2.9 BB% over the last week and are probably a favorable matchup in this park. Their prowess against the fastball (which he only throws around half the time anyway) has slipped since trading Denard Span actually. Their 15.6 wFB is now just seventh best in the majors. They’re -5.0 wFB over the last month is 22nd.
Steven Wright threw seven shutout innings (six strikeouts) at the Tigers in his first start of the season. His overall numbers through 23 innings have been fine. Knuckleballs are unpredictable and don’t always conform to analytics. Statcast actually really helps us here in pointing out an 85.5 mph aEV and 23.6% 95+ mph EV that are both board lows (or at least tied for such). He’s got one of the top matchups on the board (Orioles 18.1 K-BB% vs RHP) against the coldest offense on the board (51 wRC+, 7.8 HR/FB, -2.0 Hard-Soft%).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Wade LeBlanc (.269 – 90.4% – 8.3 as a starter) has now started seven games for the Mariners with results that have been much better than the peripherals and a failure to go beyond five innings four times. His 11.9 K-BB% over that span is not entirely useless in the right spot though the Angels don’t offer much upside (18.4 K% on the road, 9.6 K-BB% vs LHP), though his reverse split should help him here and he’s the second cheapest pitcher on the board (either site).
Junior Guerra (.261 – 81.8% – 9.7) can support the low BABIP in as much as his defense has been good and he has a .253 BABIP. The Cubs have been cold (5.6 HR/FB last seven days), but it’s probably still one of just two below average park adjusted matchups on the board tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Dylan Bundy has a top two strikeout (27.5%) and swinging strike (14.6%) rate tonight. The problem is the 15 HRs over his last eight starts. He’s failed to allow multiple HRs in just three of those starts (at Mets, at White Sox, and vs Rays). His 12.1% Barrels/BBE is a full three points higher than the second highest number. He’s in the worst spot on the board. The Red Sox have a split best 120 wRC+ and 19 K% vs RHP with a 15.3 HR/FB that’s second best to go along with their 15.0 HR/FB that’s a split best on the road. He can possibly be considered in an SP2 spot on DraftKings for just $7.5K, the second largest price gap in that direction on the board. He’s the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel.
Jordan Lyles got absolutely smashed by the Braves (8 ERs in 4.1 IP). He allowed two HRs for the third time over his last four starts and struck out just one of the 26 batters he faced. He does still have a 14.3 K-BB% through six starts this year with estimators and an xwOBA that aren’t far off league average. The matchup, in St Louis, is against an offense that has been subpar in a negative run environment as well. He’s still almost interesting as an SP2 for $5.2K on DraftKings.
Wei-Yin Chen has allowed six runs over six innings in his last two starts in St Louis and San Diego. The San Francisco offense is predominantly right-handed in the middle of the order these days.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 8.1% | 18.6% | 19.5% | Season | 23.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 12.2% | Road | 21.6% | 9.2% | 18.2% | 18.5% | L14Days | 12.7% | 3.6% | 16.2% | |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 5.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | Season | 24.4% | 5.9% | 13.3% | 25.1% | Road | 27.2% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 14.9% | L14Days | 24.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 42.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 15.3% | Season | 27.5% | 7.2% | 16.3% | 17.9% | Home | 22.2% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 16.9% | L14Days | 20.4% | 5.6% | 12.5% | 20.0% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 21.2% | Season | 26.1% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 24.3% | Home | 27.1% | 5.1% | 16.7% | 19.5% | L14Days | 22.5% | 2.0% | 18.2% | 34.3% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 12.3% | Season | 21.8% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 12.5% | Road | 18.8% | 3.2% | 14.0% | 14.9% | L14Days | 18.9% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 7.9% |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 18.9% | Season | 21.2% | 7.9% | 15.0% | 21.3% | Road | 17.5% | 8.8% | 21.2% | 22.7% | L14Days | 15.1% | 5.7% | 25.0% | 35.7% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 15.3% | Season | 24.2% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 20.1% | Road | 25.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 19.8% | L14Days | 36.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 16.3% | Season | 22.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 23.5% | Home | 24.4% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 12.4% | L14Days | 25.5% | 2.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 13.5% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 18.8% | Season | 11.0% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 19.2% | Home | 16.8% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 15.7% | L14Days | 8.2% | 4.1% | 14.3% | 30.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 4.7% | 12.4% | 16.3% | Season | 12.0% | 31.8% | Road | 21.2% | 4.1% | 12.2% | 13.2% | L14Days | 12.0% | 31.8% | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 18.2% | Season | 32.7% | 6.9% | 16.7% | 25.1% | Home | 25.7% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 15.9% | L14Days | 32.7% | 5.8% | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | Season | 22.1% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | Home | 22.2% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 2.5% | L14Days | 22.2% | 9.3% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 7.7% | 19.8% | 13.3% | Season | 22.8% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 6.3% | Road | 16.0% | 5.1% | 28.6% | 14.6% | L14Days | 16.0% | 6.0% | 20.0% | -2.6% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 7.4% | Season | 22.7% | 14.8% | 5.3% | -12.7% | Road | 14.3% | 11.1% | 25.0% | 23.9% | L14Days | 27.9% | 14.0% | -24.0% | |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 5.4% | 13.8% | 11.8% | Season | 18.7% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | Home | 18.4% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 10.4% | L14Days | 17.1% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 6.9% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 15.4% | Season | 16.3% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 21.8% | Home | 20.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.2% | L14Days | 18.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 45.5% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 22.1% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 9.3% | LH | 20.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 13.9% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.1% | 21.1% | 14.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.5% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 7.8% | RH | 24.1% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 22.3% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 19.7% | RH | 19.0% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 19.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.2% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| Padres | Road | 27.2% | 6.0% | 11.9% | 13.1% | RH | 25.7% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 15.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 23.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 22.9% | RH | 25.1% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 17.6% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.6% | 17.8% | 29.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.7% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 22.4% | RH | 22.8% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 20.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 35.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.4% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 24.4% | LH | 19.4% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 18.1% | L7Days | 28.4% | 4.6% | 20.0% | 12.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.9% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 15.0% | RH | 21.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% |
| Indians | Road | 22.8% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 17.6% | RH | 22.7% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 24.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 29.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 13.0% | LH | 20.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 34.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.2% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 14.1% | LH | 19.6% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.1% | 5.8% | -3.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 18.5% | LH | 22.2% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 16.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.0% | 17.7% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Home | 21.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 18.3% | RH | 21.6% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 17.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 2.9% | 11.6% | 15.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.8% | 7.5% | 13.7% | 11.9% | RH | 25.2% | 7.1% | 12.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | -2.0% |
| Angels | Road | 18.4% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 18.3% | LH | 19.5% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 15.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 24.0% |
| Giants | Road | 25.5% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 18.3% | LH | 23.3% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 20.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 22.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.00 | 21.8% | 12.5% | 1.74 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 24.4% | 13.3% | 1.83 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 1.87 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 27.5% | 14.6% | 1.88 | 29.4% | 14.0% | 2.10 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 26.1% | 11.1% | 2.35 | 25.8% | 11.0% | 2.35 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 21.8% | 10.4% | 2.10 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 2.10 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 21.2% | 9.7% | 2.19 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.18 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 24.2% | 8.6% | 2.81 | 29.9% | 9.1% | 3.29 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.34 | 19.5% | 9.9% | 1.97 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 11.0% | 7.6% | 1.45 | 8.7% | 5.4% | 1.61 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 12.0% | 12.2% | 0.98 | 12.0% | 12.2% | 0.98 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 32.7% | 13.8% | 2.37 | 29.9% | 11.8% | 2.53 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 22.1% | 8.2% | 2.70 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 2.46 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.43 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.43 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.32 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.32 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 18.7% | 8.1% | 2.31 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 2.14 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 16.3% | 7.6% | 2.14 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 2.33 |
Andrew Heaney has seen his strikeouts dip over his last several starts, but the good news is that the SwStr% has actually increased.
Jose Quintana still can’t support his strikeout rate. This is the second season he seems to be doing this and the longer it runs on, the more real we’ll have to consider it, but we’re not there yet and he’s been above a 13 SwStr% in two of his last three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.12 | 3.89 | 0.77 | 3.12 | 0.71 | 3.18 | 0.06 | 4.26 | 1.14 | 1.83 | 4.16 | 2.33 | 4.24 | 2.41 | 3.01 | 1.18 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 4.23 | 3.58 | -0.65 | 4.23 | -0.71 | 3.62 | -0.61 | 3.86 | -0.37 | 5.28 | 3.87 | -1.41 | 3.82 | -1.46 | 4.24 | -1.04 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 4.04 | 3.49 | -0.55 | 4.04 | -0.13 | 4.55 | 0.51 | 3.47 | -0.57 | 2.57 | 3.30 | 0.73 | 3.66 | 1.09 | 3.99 | 1.42 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 3.20 | 3.44 | 0.24 | 3.20 | 0.37 | 3.53 | 0.33 | 3.18 | -0.02 | 3.07 | 3.29 | 0.22 | 3.53 | 0.46 | 3.47 | 0.40 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 1.89 | 3.88 | 1.99 | 1.89 | 1.92 | 3.47 | 1.58 | 4.61 | 2.72 | 1.89 | 3.88 | 1.99 | 3.81 | 1.92 | 3.47 | 1.58 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 4.70 | 4.05 | -0.65 | 4.70 | -0.51 | 4.55 | -0.15 | 6.50 | 1.80 | 5.90 | 4.16 | -1.74 | 4.02 | -1.88 | 5.03 | -0.87 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 4.20 | 4.22 | 0.02 | 4.20 | -0.22 | 4.08 | -0.12 | 4.16 | -0.04 | 3.90 | 3.63 | -0.27 | 3.51 | -0.39 | 3.86 | -0.04 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 2.83 | 4.12 | 1.29 | 2.83 | 1.38 | 3.73 | 0.90 | 4.45 | 1.62 | 2.54 | 4.29 | 1.75 | 4.3 | 1.76 | 3.66 | 1.12 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 7.08 | 6.35 | -0.73 | 7.08 | -0.35 | 6.20 | -0.88 | 9.60 | 2.52 | 6.84 | 6.36 | -0.48 | 6.54 | -0.30 | 6.54 | -0.30 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 3.00 | 2.90 | -0.10 | 3.00 | -0.09 | 2.10 | -0.90 | 2.85 | -0.15 | 3.00 | 2.90 | -0.10 | 2.91 | -0.09 | 2.10 | -0.90 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 2.87 | 2.78 | -0.09 | 2.87 | -0.23 | 3.04 | 0.17 | 2.76 | -0.11 | 4.11 | 3.12 | -0.99 | 3.03 | -1.08 | 3.30 | -0.81 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 3.68 | 3.81 | 0.13 | 3.68 | 0.55 | 3.90 | 0.22 | 3.93 | 0.25 | 3.07 | 3.55 | 0.48 | 3.61 | 0.54 | 3.88 | 0.81 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 2.51 | 3.54 | 1.03 | 2.51 | 1.09 | 3.94 | 1.43 | 4.42 | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3.54 | 1.03 | 3.6 | 1.09 | 3.94 | 1.43 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 1.57 | 4.57 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 2.83 | 3.62 | 2.05 | 1.98 | 0.41 | 1.57 | 4.57 | 3.00 | 4.4 | 2.83 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 2.94 | 4.31 | 1.37 | 2.94 | 1.69 | 3.94 | 1.00 | 3.37 | 0.43 | 2.73 | 4.70 | 1.97 | 4.84 | 2.11 | 3.97 | 1.24 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 5.86 | 5.39 | -0.47 | 5.86 | -0.18 | 6.18 | 0.32 | 7.07 | 1.21 | 3.52 | 4.66 | 1.14 | 4.71 | 1.19 | 3.80 | 0.28 |
Andrew Heaney has a 7.1 HR/FB that’s probably a bit unsustainably low. Over the last month, he has a .226 BABIP and 2.7 HR/FB.
Carlos Carrasco has a .340 BABIP over the last month. Although there’s not great correlation between these numbers, his hard hit rate low over his last five starts is 37.5% with an average of 48.7%.
Joe Musgrove has an 89.1 LOB%.
Sam Gaviglio has a .224 BABIP and 89.7 LOB%.
Steven Wright has just one start and 23 total innings, but an unsustainable .185 BABIP, 88.5 LOB% and 5.3 HR/FB even for the knuckleball.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.293 | 0.273 | -0.020 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 17.9% | 84.8% | 37.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.287 | 0.304 | 0.017 | 41.6% | 22.7% | 7.2% | 87.9% | 30.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.329 | 0.295 | -0.034 | 35.8% | 16.2% | 9.2% | 82.1% | 33.0% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.304 | 0.018 | 43.4% | 17.9% | 9.8% | 84.6% | 40.1% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.296 | 0.296 | 0.000 | 46.4% | 17.9% | 15.0% | 86.7% | 37.0% |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 0.306 | 0.278 | -0.028 | 43.7% | 18.4% | 6.7% | 89.9% | 35.4% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.262 | 0.287 | 0.025 | 45.4% | 20.1% | 6.7% | 87.7% | 35.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.268 | 0.261 | -0.007 | 38.9% | 20.4% | 16.7% | 86.7% | 41.8% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.277 | -0.014 | 41.1% | 17.3% | 13.1% | 88.3% | 42.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.299 | 0.364 | 0.065 | 66.7% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 75.0% | 29.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.276 | 0.249 | -0.027 | 46.0% | 22.2% | 10.0% | 85.9% | 26.0% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.273 | 0.279 | 0.006 | 39.0% | 21.5% | 16.2% | 88.8% | 35.9% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.224 | -0.080 | 54.4% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 91.7% | 31.1% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.185 | -0.106 | 54.5% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 81.9% | 39.5% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.296 | 0.288 | -0.008 | 34.4% | 19.9% | 8.7% | 86.3% | 25.6% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.271 | -0.021 | 34.2% | 18.0% | 9.4% | 86.8% | 35.0% |
Dylan Bundy has a team defense problem.
Patrick Corbin can’t really support that BABIP. He does have a superior 26 Z-O-Swing%, which would suggest a lot of bad contact on pitches outside of the zone, but his 88.9 mph aEV is still fairly high. It’s probably more like no contact out of the zone (53.3%) since his Z-Contact% is right around average.
Sam Gaviglio has limited line drives, but that’s not a sustainable rate and his Z-Contact% is easily worst on the board. Where he seems to have made his gains is on a chase rate that’s up 8.4 points since last season. Either way, the BABIP is unsustainable.
Steven Wright has an unsustainably low LD%. He, like most knuckleballers, has been a solid contact manager and has a .279 BABIP for his career. Perhaps strong shifting can even improve on that, but he’s still at least 70-80 points too low.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.315 | -0.038 | 0.394 | 0.006 | 0.300 | -0.068 | -1.400 | 85.5 | 6.7 | 37.000 | 165 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.315 | -0.018 | 0.286 | -0.021 | 0.331 | 0.014 | -0.200 | 89.4 | 6.8 | 37.000 | 235 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.338 | -0.009 | 0.323 | -0.006 | 0.291 | -0.025 | -1.400 | 89 | 12.1 | 37.900 | 206 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.302 | -0.007 | 0.294 | -0.014 | 0.287 | -0.005 | 1.000 | 88.9 | 4.7 | 40.200 | 107 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.271 | 0.012 | 0.323 | 0.012 | 0.271 | 0.012 | -0.300 | 87.4 | 3.6 | 33.900 | 56 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 0.310 | 0.007 | 0.389 | 0.032 | 0.314 | 0.038 | 0.700 | 87.8 | 6.9 | 32.500 | 160 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.320 | -0.007 | 0.303 | -0.025 | 0.267 | 0.023 | 0.200 | 89 | 4.5 | 41.300 | 179 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.335 | -0.051 | 0.327 | -0.005 | 0.360 | -0.090 | -0.300 | 89.2 | 6.6 | 44.000 | 166 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.396 | -0.028 | 0.346 | -0.004 | 0.434 | -0.058 | 0.000 | 90.5 | 6.4 | 40.900 | 203 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.298 | 0.039 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 0.298 | 0.039 | 0.100 | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | -0.031 | 0.296 | -0.008 | 0.300 | -0.015 | -0.400 | 88.9 | 7.9 | 37.700 | 191 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.325 | -0.035 | 0.276 | -0.006 | 0.340 | -0.030 | -0.900 | 86.6 | 6.4 | 27.300 | 172 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.308 | -0.043 | 0.356 | 0.008 | 0.308 | -0.043 | 0.300 | 86.7 | 5.0 | 40.000 | 80 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 0.272 | -0.037 | 0.394 | -0.004 | 0.272 | -0.037 | -1.000 | 85.5 | 9.1 | 23.600 | 55 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.335 | -0.035 | 0.321 | -0.024 | 0.327 | -0.028 | -0.400 | 87.6 | 6.6 | 35.500 | 152 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.327 | 0.041 | 0.268 | 0.011 | 0.287 | -0.002 | -0.600 | 86.4 | 5.2 | 35.700 | 115 |
Note: Statcast searches were being difficult this morning. Home/Away numbers are a week behind.
First thing noticed is that the first two guys on the list vary widely in aEV, but have the exact same .315 xwOBA, despite very similar strikeout rates as well.
The second thing that becomes quickly apparent is how much some of the best and worst numbers stand out so far away from the rest of the pack and that only one pitcher has an xwOBA above .340.
In fact, Dylan Bundy has the second highest xwOBA on the board (.338).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There are really no terrible choices. This may not be an incredibly strong board, but it’s an “almost everyone has some appeal” board. Strong matchups in pitchers’ parks.
Value Tier One
Madison Bumgarner (1) looked good in his return to action despite the lack of strikeouts and now comes at a discount in what may be the top spot on the board. If they’re giving him 90 pitches tonight, that may get him through seven in Miami.
Value Tier Two
Ryan Yarbrough has been a decent contact manager who’s pitched beyond five innings in four straight outings. He has occasional upside and is very cheap in a reasonable spot in a favorable park. I’d even bump him up to a top tier point per dollar value on DraftKings and will probably end up using a lot of he and Bumgarner combos myself tonight with some Flaherty mixed in.
Value Tier Three
Jack Flaherty (4) has struggled in back to back starts, but is in a great spot in a reasonable price where his best pitch is one that his opponent struggles more than any team in the league against.
Steven Wright is in a higher upside spot against the Orioles than he was in his first start against the Tigers. It may have been a mistake to omit him for the unknown factor last time out when at a low enough price, that should really depend on ownership. This could go a number of ways, but he still costs just $6.2K on FanDuel and there’s a good chance he ends up frustrating flailing Baltimore bats all night.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Patrick Corbin (2t) is one of the two highest priced pitchers on the board and remains a high upside arm, even if that upside has been a bit less over the last month or so. He just happens to be in one of the lower upside spots tonight. If you believe Arizona is a negative run environment (which it has been this year), perhaps he bumps up a bit further tonight.
Carlos Carrasco (2t) is either the first or second most expensive pitcher on the board in a favorable or even high upside matchup, but he’s been a bit inconsistent. In fact, the most consistent thing about him over the last month has been a high hard hit rate. That’s a bit of a concern. I’m not saying don’t pay up. He could certainly return the top pitching line of the night, I’m just suggesting it’s not a lock.
Sam Gaviglio isn’t what his ERA suggests, but the estimators aren’t bad either. He’s been an improved and potentially useful pitcher at a low cost in a decent spot, which is where he finds himself today. A FanDuel cost $1K less than DraftKings is more appealing.
Joe Musgrove will see his strand rate regress. His cost (around $8K) is probably adequate for what he might be, but it’s a probably a bit better than that today in a strong spot in Arizona.
Andrew Heaney isn’t in the best spot, but it is at least in a pitcher’s park. While his ERA flies well below his estimators recently, his strikeout rate is also flying below his swinging strike rate, which should help him out as other numbers regress. The cost keeps him usable, but he is the fourth highest priced pitcher on DraftKings.
Jose Quintana is a guy I have no idea what to do with. I feel there’s more risk than the number suggest, but they think he’s right here with all these guys for a price tag not much above $8K.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.