Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 12th
I rarely, if never, use this space for personal matters, but its Monday and there’s not a lot going on yet.I was originally going to talk about a bad experience I had with a pet rescue and adoption organization last week, but something very cool happened while I was writing a lengthy introduction that I’ve since decided to scrap. I just became an uncle for the second time.
As a Jets fan though, I’m having a bit of difficulty with my brother’s choice of names. He’s calling the child Brady. I’m trying to convince him that there are plenty of iconic Jets names as well. He could name the kid Namath or Klecko or what about after fellow daily fantasy player Wayne Chrebet? Chrebet would make a great first name for a kid from Jersey. He said he didn’t want the kid to be predisposed to losing (low blow). I asked if deflated balls were any better.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 9.1 | 5.07 | 4.59 | 40.8% | 1.04 | 4.72 | 4.59 | SEA | 94 | 91 | 85 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -5.6 | 4.79 | 4.55 | 41.9% | 0.91 | 4.38 | 4.06 | NYY | 107 | 128 | 196 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 13.6 | 5.32 | 5.26 | 30.7% | 0.91 | 6.51 | 5.65 | SDG | 81 | 82 | 111 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.1 | 3.37 | 6.17 | 45.3% | 0.91 | 3.36 | 5.34 | CHC | 82 | 87 | 92 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -7.4 | 3.75 | 5.8 | 52.6% | 0.97 | 3.56 | COL | 93 | 84 | 110 | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4 | 4.09 | 5.91 | 39.9% | 1.13 | 4.32 | 5.95 | BOS | 93 | 95 | 92 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 1.6 | 4.24 | 5.55 | 43.2% | 0.94 | 4.25 | TEX | 82 | 96 | 105 | |
| John Lackey | CHC | 2.3 | 3.84 | 6.48 | 43.9% | 0.91 | 3.62 | 3.7 | NYM | 86 | 104 | 121 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.7 | 4.84 | 5.83 | 57.5% | 0.97 | 5.61 | 4.52 | PIT | 94 | 87 | 117 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -7.9 | 3.95 | 5.7 | 60.8% | 0.91 | 4.2 | 5.56 | CIN | 98 | 104 | 114 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 1.3 | 3.76 | 6.28 | 48.0% | 0.91 | 4.02 | 5.18 | ANA | 109 | 92 | 101 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 2.6 | 4.23 | 5.55 | 40.2% | 1.01 | 3.83 | 3.32 | WAS | 113 | 109 | 47 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.4 | 5 | 5.1 | 49.9% | 0.98 | 4.58 | 4.5 | BAL | 90 | 90 | 73 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.1 | 3.75 | 6.45 | 42.9% | 1.13 | 3.98 | 4.42 | PHI | 73 | 85 | 72 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -1.9 | 2.96 | 6.33 | 42.3% | 1.01 | 3.24 | 3.4 | ATL | 93 | 91 | 72 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -3.5 | 4.19 | 5.73 | 49.5% | 0.98 | 4.13 | 3.99 | CHW | 101 | 121 | 94 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.7 | 5.17 | 5.29 | 45.3% | 1.04 | 4.91 | 5.16 | MIN | 100 | 104 | 83 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 1.3 | 3.44 | 6.07 | 39.3% | 0.94 | 3.57 | 2.61 | HOU | 113 | 122 | 116 |
Jacob deGrom has allowed 15 ERs (four HRs) over his last eight innings with just eight strikeouts, while walking six of the 47 batters he’s faced. This occurs on the heels of a 118 pitch outing and then he was allowed to throw 105 pitches in his next outing in only four innings. The good news is that his velocity has remained somewhat stable and he did have a 14.3 SwStr% in the first of those terrible starts (but just 8.7% last time out). He believes he’s identified a mechanical issue as the cause, which has resulted in throwing across his body. I’d like to believe him because, believe it or not, he might be in the top spot on the board when hosting the Cubs tonight. Consider that their road numbers are not much different than the Padres at home with the seventh worst offense in baseball against RHP via wRC+. Citi Field is also one of the most negative run environments on the board.
Jameson Taillon is my favorite pitcher on the board today. It’s so awesome to see someone kick the crap out of cancer the way he has, barely even giving it the time of day. He missed just a single month and still threw three rehab starts! In those three rehab starts, he struck out 21 of 59 batters (30.5 K-BB%), reaching 29 batters faced in his last start, suggesting that he should not be limited tonight. He did have just an 11.4 K-BB% prior to the illness, but with a 52.9 GB% and hard hit rate below 30%, though his 38.5% of 95+ mph exit velocity is second worst on the board. The park plays in his favor, suppressing RH power against a poor Colorado offense against RHP (14.0 K-BB%).
John Lackey has allowed five ERs with a hard hit rate above 50% in three of his last four starts and 16 HRs in 12 starts. However, he’s failed to strikeout at least six just twice over the last month and has run a SwStr rate above 11% in each of his last six starts. Throw more sliders or cutter or whatever that pitch that gets the whiffs is. The Mets are a well-disciplined offense with a 9.6 K-BB% and 35.5 Hard% vs RHP, but a fairly extreme pitcher’s home park.
Rick Porcello is one of six major league pitchers who has allowed more than 90 batted balls (94) at an exit velocity higher than 95 mph. Prior to his last two starts in Baltimore and New York, we were able to say he’s allowed more than one HR in a game just once (four against Tampa Bay). However, he’s allowed two in each of his last two starts with a hard hit rate of 42.2% on the season. His 10.9 SwStr% is still three points higher than his career rate though with his 17.3 K-BB% right in line with last season. The Phillies are one of the worst road offenses in baseball (16.9 K-BB%, 6.4 Hard-Soft%) and not too good vs RHP either (15.7 K-BB%, 7.8 Hard-Soft%).
Stephen Strasburg is the easy one today, which sounds strange considering his career trajectory and expectations, but he’s gone at least six innings in 11 of 12 starts (at least seven eight times) with at least seven strikeouts eight times, including each of his last four. While his 20.7 K-BB% is actually below his career mark, his 11.6 SwStr% is his highest since his 2010 debut season and has increased over the last month as he’s struck out one-third of batters faced. The Braves don’t strike out a lot and just 16.6% over the last week, but they don’t hit the ball all that hard either (4.1 HR/FB last seven days).
Yu Darvish made just a couple of mistakes to Jay Bruce in an otherwise strong start last time out and has struck out 17 of his last 51 batters and has jacked up his SwStr% over the last month to rate more commiserate with career numbers. He’s still allowing hard contact at a career high 33.2% with a career low 38.1 GB%, but does transition to a more favorable overall run environment tonight. The bad news is that he has to face the Astros (16.0 HR/FB at home). Houston has really cut down on their strikeout rates this year (17.4% at home, 18.1% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.291 – 77.7% – 15.0) has four unearned runs allowed, nearly 14% of his season total. Aside from a 10 strikeout performance two starts back, he has exceeded four strikeouts just once (with five) since May. The Washington offense has gone cold, but it’s still difficult to call them a favorable matchup.
Wade Miley (.311 – 81.6% – 16.3) has a 3.9 K-BB% over his last nine starts and just a 13.2 K% (6.0 SwStr%) since the start of May. The White Sox have been elite vs LHP and have a 42.2 Hard% over the last week.
Mike Pelfrey (.239 – 68.6% – 10.9) may not have entirely earned his strikeout increase over the last month, but has not been as terrible as usual and Baltimore has been a below average offense this year.
Adalberto Mejia (.262 – 83.8% – 18.4) has a 12.2 BB%, has gone more than five innings in just two of seven starts and has allowed seven HRs over his last five starts with one of the higher exit velocities on the board (88.8 mph).
Kyle Freeland (.277 – 79.8% – 12.3) generates lots of weak of ground balls (57.2%) with the lowest exit velocity (85.9 mph) and rate of Barrels/BBE (4.5%) on the board tonight, while being in a nice spot in Pittsburgh, but with just a 5.4 K-BB% and plate discipline is the strength of this Pittsburgh offense (10.2 BB% vs LHP).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Masahiro Tanaka has had a problem locating and has been getting lit up with the exception of one incredible start against Oakland. He’s allowed at least three HRs in three of his last five starts with 52% of his strikeouts over the last month coming in that start against Oakland. His Statcast numbers (aEV and Barrels) are worst on the board, along with 40.9% of his contact at 95 mph or more off the bat. Outside of tall that, he does still have an elite SwStr%, but can’t often enough get to strike three before laying in a meatball. The good news, almost enough to make him usable, is that he transitions out of a power friendly park to a great pitcher’s park to face an offense that isn’t much without the best player in baseball.
Luis Perdomo walked four and struck out just one in Arizona last time out, lasting just four innings. He still generated a 73.3 GB%, but with a 53.3 Hard%. His 66.3 GB% for the season is behind only Dallas Keuchel, though he allows hard contact at a league average rate (30.1%). He’s also now failed to strike out more than four or exceed a 9.0 SwStr% in three of his last four starts. Cincinnati is not a bad offense, though don’t hit the ball very hard against RHP (7.8 Hard-Soft%) and are probably helped out a bit by a power friendly home park in that regard, which could make them a bit of a better matchup in Petco.
Alex Meyer has excelled at missing bats over the last month, but is still walking 12.9% of batters over that span with a .255 BABIP, 79% strand rate and 5.9 HR/FB with a 23.1 Hard-Soft%. He also faces the top offense vs RHP (18.8 HR/FB) and over the last week (5.2 K-BB%, 25.4 HR/FB).
Joe Musgrove missed a couple of weeks due to a shoulder issues. Interestingly, his last start (7 IP – 0 ER – 0 BB – 6 K) against Baltimore was his best of the season. Without a rehab start it’s difficult to assess his health status and he’s more likely to be on a strict workload limit tonight, not that anything besides his SwStr% has been very enviable this season anyway. His major league walk rate continues to run double his minor league ones.
Jerad Eickhoff has not allowed fewer than three runs in a start since April. That’s not an ideal barometer of performance, but it certainly says something. While the good news is that he isn’t allowing a ton of hard contact and his SwStr% is actually up a point over the last month, while his K% is down a point, he’s a fly ball pitcher in a difficult park against an offense that hits the ball hard and doesn’t strike out much despite the lack of results.
Bronson Arroyo has one of the top matchups on the slate in Petco, but has allowed 20 HRs and at least one in every start except one. His 7.9% Barrels/PA is highest on the board.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 11.8% | Home | 22.4% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 25.3% | 15.2% | Home | 23.4% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 12.0% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 14.3% | 6.8% | Road | 11.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.5% | 6.5% | Home | 30.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 12.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.3% | 5.3% | Home | 20.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.1% | Road | 19.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.8% | Home | 23.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.7% | Road | 25.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.8% | 9.4% | Road | 12.3% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.9% | 7.2% | Home | 15.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.6% | 4.7% | Road | 17.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.8% | Road | 21.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 8.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.5% | 7.5% | Home | 14.1% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 4.1% | Home | 21.6% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 6.4% | Home | 29.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 7.7% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.1% | Road | 18.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 6.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.2% | 10.6% | Road | 16.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 8.4% | Road | 29.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 3.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 20.9% | 8.3% | LH | 19.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.7% | 8.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.9% |
| Padres | Home | 24.2% | 8.5% | RH | 26.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 29.8% | 8.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 10.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.6% | 7.6% | RH | 22.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 10.0% | RH | 18.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.4% | 7.7% | RH | 23.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.5% |
| Mets | Home | 19.6% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 11.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.0% | 9.3% | LH | 21.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| Reds | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | RH | 21.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.6% |
| Angels | Home | 17.5% | 8.3% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.8% | 9.1% | RH | 19.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.7% | 6.2% | RH | 22.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.9% | 7.0% | RH | 23.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.2% |
| Braves | Road | 19.0% | 7.4% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.2% | 8.1% | LH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.0% | 5.0% |
| Twins | Home | 22.2% | 11.6% | RH | 22.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.6% |
| Astros | Home | 17.4% | 7.5% | RH | 18.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 32.0% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 2017 | 30.8% | 18.4% | 12.1% | Home | 28.6% | 17.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 34.3% | 12.1% | 18.9% | 2017 | 30.3% | 10.7% | 15.7% | Home | 31.3% | 9.7% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 14.3% | 20.0% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 34.7% | 19.4% | 17.3% | 2017 | 34.7% | 19.4% | 17.3% | Road | 29.9% | 20.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 2017 | 37.6% | 20.0% | 17.5% | Home | 31.1% | 12.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 40.0% | 36.4% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 2017 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 10.6% | Home | 32.3% | 13.3% | 15.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 2017 | 30.5% | 10.0% | 15.7% | Road | 31.9% | 10.3% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 11.1% | 17.8% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 31.8% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 2017 | 28.7% | 14.3% | 10.7% | Home | 28.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | |||
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 2017 | 37.7% | 20.5% | 23.5% | Road | 37.0% | 15.5% | 24.0% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 18.8% | 36.1% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.2% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 2017 | 33.2% | 12.3% | 12.7% | Road | 35.9% | 12.5% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 15.4% | 15.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.0% | 21.4% | 16.0% | 2017 | 30.1% | 20.6% | 12.0% | Home | 32.7% | 18.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.5% | 16.5% | 13.7% | 2017 | 34.4% | 23.3% | 14.9% | Road | 31.3% | 12.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 25.0% | 20.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.4% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 2017 | 27.8% | 15.0% | 10.6% | Road | 28.3% | 17.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 2017 | 29.9% | 10.9% | 6.1% | Home | 33.7% | 18.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 0.0% | 16.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 33.7% | 11.6% | 16.6% | 2017 | 42.2% | 13.0% | 23.9% | Home | 35.0% | 8.5% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 13.8% | 10.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2017 | 27.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | Home | 29.6% | 12.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 16.7% | 12.1% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 2017 | 34.8% | 16.3% | 13.4% | Road | 36.1% | 15.8% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | -5.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 2017 | 34.1% | 16.7% | 17.5% | Road | 29.6% | 11.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 27.3% | 31.3% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 2017 | 33.2% | 15.2% | 17.6% | Road | 26.3% | 11.6% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 21.4% | 30.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 30.8% | 10.1% | 12.8% | LH | 29.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 28.0% | 11.1% | 6.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.9% | 13.6% | 14.7% | RH | 32.8% | 18.8% | 14.1% | L7Days | 38.4% | 25.4% | 21.4% |
| Padres | Home | 28.7% | 12.3% | 6.1% | RH | 29.7% | 14.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 39.6% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 27.7% | 11.4% | 7.2% | RH | 29.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 15.4% | 12.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.1% | 13.1% | 10.4% | RH | 29.7% | 13.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.8% | 17.0% | 10.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.1% | 7.1% | 20.5% | RH | 35.8% | 10.0% | 18.1% | L7Days | 41.5% | 9.3% | 23.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.0% | 14.5% | 10.3% | RH | 32.4% | 15.1% | 12.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 20.0% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Home | 32.9% | 9.2% | 13.8% | RH | 35.5% | 13.3% | 18.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 20.3% | 13.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | LH | 29.3% | 12.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 28.5% | 3.7% | 11.2% |
| Reds | Road | 28.9% | 14.8% | 8.7% | RH | 28.6% | 14.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 29.1% | 21.2% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Home | 28.0% | 14.3% | 8.3% | RH | 30.3% | 12.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 34.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 14.9% | RH | 31.0% | 14.3% | 13.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.2% | 14.5% | 15.7% | RH | 29.6% | 14.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 31.8% | 19.6% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.6% | 10.5% | 6.4% | RH | 29.4% | 10.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 10.9% | 5.5% |
| Braves | Road | 31.2% | 11.7% | 13.1% | RH | 30.9% | 10.1% | 12.7% | L7Days | 26.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | LH | 30.0% | 12.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 42.2% | 12.2% | 24.5% |
| Twins | Home | 33.4% | 11.3% | 17.4% | RH | 33.5% | 14.2% | 17.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 11.9% | 7.3% |
| Astros | Home | 29.9% | 16.0% | 11.9% | RH | 32.1% | 15.1% | 14.8% | L7Days | 37.4% | 11.5% | 21.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 20.9% | 8.5% | 2.46 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.52 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 26.1% | 9.3% | 2.81 | 29.0% | 11.2% | 2.59 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 14.3% | 7.8% | 1.83 | 12.2% | 8.5% | 1.44 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 29.9% | 14.8% | 2.02 | 25.4% | 13.7% | 1.85 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.36 | |||
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.5% | 8.5% | 2.29 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.96 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 18.8% | 10.7% | 1.76 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 1.52 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.08 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 1.63 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.8% | 6.8% | 2.18 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 1.83 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 19.8% | 9.6% | 2.06 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 2.06 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 19.7% | 12.7% | 1.55 | 23.6% | 13.1% | 1.80 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.0% | 8.7% | 2.30 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 2.55 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 14.0% | 6.3% | 2.22 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 2.77 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.8% | 10.9% | 2.00 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 1.81 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 27.6% | 11.6% | 2.38 | 33.1% | 12.3% | 2.69 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 20.7% | 7.6% | 2.72 | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.12 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.8% | 7.9% | 2.13 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.65 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 26.5% | 11.3% | 2.35 | 28.2% | 13.0% | 2.17 |
John Lackey has increased his SwStr% over the last month despite dropping a few points in K%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.18 | 4.93 | 0.75 | 5.11 | 0.93 | 5.87 | 1.69 | 4.56 | 0.38 | 3.52 | 4.61 | 1.09 | 4.64 | 1.12 | 5.57 | 2.05 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 4.08 | 4.69 | 0.61 | 4.44 | 0.36 | 4.16 | 0.08 | 4.02 | -0.06 | 2.01 | 4.03 | 2.02 | 3.88 | 1.87 | 3.13 | 1.12 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 6.25 | 5.32 | -0.93 | 5.61 | -0.64 | 6.88 | 0.63 | 10.31 | 4.06 | 6.67 | 5.85 | -0.82 | 6.34 | -0.33 | 8.27 | 1.6 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 4.75 | 3.5 | -1.25 | 3.22 | -1.53 | 3.93 | -0.82 | 3.00 | -1.75 | 6.14 | 3.76 | -2.38 | 3.48 | -2.66 | 4.66 | -1.48 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.31 | 4.18 | 0.87 | 3.85 | 0.54 | 4.13 | 0.82 | 3.88 | 0.57 | |||||||
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 5.15 | 4.61 | -0.54 | 4.69 | -0.46 | 4.14 | -1.01 | 6.79 | 1.64 | 5.76 | 4.5 | -1.26 | 4.27 | -1.49 | 4.09 | -1.67 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.89 | 4.53 | -0.36 | 4.55 | -0.34 | 4.68 | -0.21 | 7.73 | 2.84 | 4.6 | 4.01 | -0.59 | 4.17 | -0.43 | 2.77 | -1.83 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.12 | 3.92 | -1.2 | 4.04 | -1.08 | 5.06 | -0.06 | 5.79 | 0.67 | 6.35 | 4.44 | -1.91 | 4.85 | -1.5 | 6.3 | -0.05 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.34 | 4.84 | 1.5 | 4.71 | 1.37 | 4.59 | 1.25 | 4.87 | 1.53 | 3.9 | 5.11 | 1.21 | 5.27 | 1.37 | 5.89 | 1.99 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 5.47 | 3.72 | -1.75 | 3.83 | -1.64 | 4.41 | -1.06 | 4.60 | -0.87 | 6.92 | 4 | -2.92 | 4.3 | -2.62 | 5.9 | -1.02 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6.55 | 4.16 | -2.39 | 4.21 | -2.34 | 5.63 | -0.92 | 5.05 | -1.50 | 10.72 | 3.9 | -6.82 | 4.32 | -6.4 | 8.16 | -2.56 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.48 | 4.23 | 0.75 | 4.03 | 0.55 | 4.22 | 0.74 | 5.35 | 1.87 | 2.57 | 4.05 | 1.48 | 3.64 | 1.07 | 3.83 | 1.26 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 3.8 | 5.07 | 1.27 | 4.94 | 1.14 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 3.43 | -0.37 | 2.77 | 4.28 | 1.51 | 4.1 | 1.33 | 4.13 | 1.36 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.46 | 3.91 | -0.55 | 4.12 | -0.34 | 4.04 | -0.42 | 4.91 | 0.45 | 5.06 | 4.15 | -0.91 | 4.3 | -0.76 | 4.05 | -1.01 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 3.25 | 0.45 | 2.7 | -0.1 | 2.08 | -0.72 | 2.14 | 2.88 | 0.74 | 2.68 | 0.54 | 2.43 | 0.29 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 3.27 | 4.56 | 1.29 | 4.1 | 0.83 | 4.35 | 1.08 | 4.04 | 0.77 | 4.39 | 4.62 | 0.23 | 4.38 | -0.01 | 5.15 | 0.76 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.26 | 4.96 | -1.3 | 4.63 | -1.63 | 5.02 | -1.24 | 5.27 | -0.99 | 8.88 | 5.18 | -3.7 | 5.04 | -3.84 | 6.84 | -2.04 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.18 | 3.92 | 0.74 | 3.92 | 0.74 | 4.14 | 0.96 | 2.80 | -0.38 | 3.56 | 3.62 | 0.06 | 4.15 | 0.59 | 4.27 | 0.71 |
Jameson Taillon has stranded 80.7% of runners this year, while his peripherals are just average.
John Lackey has a HR problem (20.5 HR/FB) with a lot of hard contact over the last month, but his overall exit velocity and Barrel rates are not too bad.
Yu Darvish has a .246 BABIP and 84.8 LOB%, retaining a 3.18 ERA near his career rate despite estimators more than half a run higher.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.278 | 0.262 | -0.016 | 41.8% | 0.165 | 10.5% | 84.1% | 88.8 | 9.90% | 6.50% | 91 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.287 | 0.291 | 0.004 | 47.7% | 0.205 | 10.7% | 91.1% | 86.6 | 7.90% | 4.50% | 89 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.276 | 0.271 | -0.005 | 30.7% | 0.214 | 9.7% | 90.2% | 87.3 | 10.00% | 7.90% | 219 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.350 | 0.03 | 43.9% | 0.241 | 10.0% | 76.1% | 87.6 | 6.90% | 4.10% | 189 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.305 | 0.300 | -0.005 | 52.9% | 0.235 | 8.3% | 88.8% | 87.7 | 5.80% | 4.00% | 104 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.301 | 0.327 | 0.026 | 39.2% | 0.216 | 7.5% | 88.4% | 88.4 | 6.70% | 4.80% | 210 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.291 | 0.314 | 0.023 | 42.9% | 0.184 | 7.9% | 86.3% | 85.9 | 6.00% | 4.40% | 167 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.293 | 0.301 | 0.008 | 43.4% | 0.185 | 9.0% | 84.6% | 86.8 | 7.10% | 4.90% | 212 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.285 | 0.277 | -0.008 | 57.5% | 0.159 | 12.3% | 91.1% | 85.9 | 4.50% | 3.40% | 220 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.024 | 66.3% | 0.133 | 5.9% | 93.3% | 86.8 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 166 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.276 | 0.323 | 0.047 | 47.7% | 0.182 | 13.7% | 85.8% | 89.8 | 10.70% | 7.80% | 215 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.280 | 0.291 | 0.011 | 43.5% | 0.251 | 10.0% | 86.1% | 86.4 | 7.10% | 5.10% | 198 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.272 | 0.239 | -0.033 | 47.3% | 0.212 | 6.5% | 89.0% | 86.7 | 6.10% | 4.70% | 147 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.316 | 0.361 | 0.045 | 37.4% | 0.214 | 8.3% | 85.3% | 88.9 | 9.90% | 7.30% | 263 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.293 | 0.263 | -0.03 | 47.1% | 0.192 | 10.0% | 85.3% | 88.1 | 8.50% | 5.60% | 211 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.312 | 0.311 | -0.001 | 55.4% | 0.215 | 14.0% | 91.4% | 87.3 | 4.80% | 3.20% | 187 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.280 | 0.318 | 0.038 | 47.6% | 0.233 | 11.7% | 87.9% | 88.1 | 6.20% | 4.50% | 211 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.282 | 0.246 | -0.036 | 38.1% | 0.243 | 5.1% | 85.0% | 87.3 | 6.60% | 4.20% | 211 |
Rick Porcello doesn’t have a terrible profile, but it is below average and he plays in a terrible BABIP park, which likely has some influence on the team allowed mark because it’s not really a bad defense overall.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (2) has struggled in his last two starts and that’s a severe understatement. He’s gotten pounded, but still has a SwStr above 13% in eight of his last 10 starts. I’m inclined to take him at his word about mechanical issues at this point, on this slate, or at least I’m hopeful considering the quality of the matchup, which may not appear obvious against the defending World Champs. I still struggle to place him as the top value on the board, where the numbers suggest he should be, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility if he returns to form for just $10K now. His 14.8 SwStr% is highest on the board by more than two points as is his 29.9 K%. Unless there’s an injury we don’t know about, he should bounce back at some point and will be way under-priced on that occasion (hopefully tonight).
Value Tier Two
Stephen Strasburg (1) is the top overall pitcher on the board today in an ideal run prevention matchup, but now costs a fortune.
Value Tier Three
Yu Darvish (3) has looked more like his normal self, increasing his SwStr% and strikeout rate in recent starts, but has a tough task ahead of him in the Astros. His $8.8K cost on DraftKings is too low though, even in this spot and probably bumps him up to the second tier.
Jameson Taillon costs just $6.8K on DraftKings. While he had been just average in his major league starts this year, he dominated in minor league rehab starts and should have no restrictions tonight. He kicked the crap out of cancer and now looks to do the same to the Rockies in a nice spot.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Rick Porcello has some hard contact issues with strong peripherals, a theme of this bottom tier of usables, but does have a better matchup than the pitcher directly below for not much more in cost.
John Lackey has had significant issues with hard contact recently, not likely something the Mets help him remedy, but he does still generate swings and misses and is in a favorable park tonight. He shouldn’t retain a 20.5 HR/FB, while his estimators still call him a league average pitcher or better otherwise.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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