Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 15th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-05-15 19:05:57

We start the week with an odd slate. Five of the seven games are on the West Coast. The two best arms on the schedule (Archer & Carrasco) go prior to 7pm and there was not a single LHP to be found until the A’s switched from Graveman to Manaea after the setup for the slate had been completed. The cost of the additional 20 minutes of work to reset is the conclusion of the conversation concerning BABIP and potential reasons for its decline this year. That waits for another day now. Thank you Oakland and MLB.com (either sincerely or sarcastically).

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Let’s start with a note that not a single pitcher on the active night slate has averaged more than six innings per start over the last two calendar years, just to let you know what we’re getting into tonight.

Jesse Chavez has allowed a single HR in each of his last five outings (one a single inning in relief), in which he has been slightly below average. He has the highest aEV (89.5 mph) on the board, though it’s still not egregiously high. The matchup, however, is fantastic against one of the worst offenses in baseball in a top pitcher’s park. The White Sox strike out a bit more than average (23.3% vs RHP), but rarely make hard contact (25.3 Hard% vs RHP, -0.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week) or walk (6.3% vs RHP).

Luis Perdomo might be the sneaky upside arm tonight. He’s followed up an elite ground ball rate and acceptable SwStr% last season with a 21.0 K% (10.2 SwStr%) and what would easily be a major league leading 69.5 GB% with another couple of starts to qualify. The ERA still runs a bit high because the BABIP is running above .340 again, keeping his strand rate low (65.7%). We’ll look at that below. The Brewers are an overall average offense, but have a 24.4 K% vs RHP. They are the hottest offense on the board, pummeling struggling Mets pitching (both starters and relievers) this weekend. Their power has translated well to the road (20.6 HR/FB) as well as against RHP (20.1 HR/FB), though the ground ball rate and extremely negative run environment play in the pitcher’s favor here. The Brewers decline a little bit against GB pitchers (94 sOPS+).

Zack Godley has struck out 12 of 45 major league batters this year and now has an 11.7 SwStr% through 123.1 major league innings. He has allowed 18 HRs, but with average exit velocity and hard contact rates. We can essentially place some blame on the park, though it’s more an overall run environment booster than a massive power increaser. For the Mets, offense has been the least of their issues recently. Either side of this matchup is probably up there as the worst spot on the board due to run environment. They’ve actually cut down on their strikeouts significantly this year (18.5% vs RHP). Godley does do himself some additional favors with a 53.3 GB% (career). The Mets do like to elevate those low pitches though and have a second best `129 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers this year.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)

Chase Anderson (.316 – 75.7% – 4.8) is the pitcher who probably generates the most disagreement from what the numbers say. Let’s start with non-FIP estimators all above four. In power friendly parks, he’s never generated a HR rate below 11.1%. He’s a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher with a 19.3 Hard-Soft% this season. However, he also has the lowest rate of Barrels/PA (2.4%) and Barrels/BBE (3.4%) along with the lowest average exit velocity (84.6 mph) on the board. I’m not sure how to calibrate that as there seems to be significant disagreement between the grading systems. While I’d like to lean towards Statcast, I’m not sure they yet capture every batted ball and he had a 14.9 HR/FB with the same hard hit rate (36.6%).

If we switch focus to the matchup, he transitions to a one of the most negative run environments in the league against an offense with a 25.4 K% vs RHP. It’s truly one of the top spots on the board, but the Padres do have a surprisingly high 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP. San Diego also has a third worst 76 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (Baseball-Reference), but that actually matches their overall production this season, so it’s not really telling us anything new.

He misses bats at just about exactly a league average rate, which makes him one of only a few pitchers we can project for even an average strikeout rate tonight. Another issue is that his ERA has met his peripherals over the last month (above four). He’s failed to complete even five innings in each of his last two starts with a total of 12 strikeouts to seven walks over his last 71 batters faced. Let’s leave him where the numbers believe he should be, while noting that multiple lineup players probably should have some exposure to him for just $6.8K on DraftKings.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Zack Wheeler doesn’t nearly make the cut on most days, but could actually warrant some DraftKings SP2 consideration on this slate. Beware that his command seems to have eroded with an equal eight walks to eight strikeouts over his last two starts (45 BF), though he did have a the makings of a decent outing in Atlanta in between that was rained out after three innings. Though his Zone% and F-Strike% has fallen off in the most recent start more than the one before that, his O-Swing% has fallen off a cliff (below 20% in each of last two starts). His 83.7 Z-Contact% is actually best on the main slate tonight, so the stuff is still pretty damn good and the Diamondbacks have a 23.7 K% vs RHP, but Arizona hits the ball hard both at home (38.8%) and against RHP (36.3%) in addition to a 30.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week. It may be the worst matchup on the board.

Sean Manaea would ideally be the top pitcher on the slate…easily, except for the little matter of a shoulder issue that pulled him from his last major league start three weeks ago after only two innings. He’s since struck out five of 18 batters in a rehab start six days ago, though I’d be shocked at much more than five innings tonight. While the Mariners have been poor against LHP, they do have an impressive 5.7 K-BB% against them. If I thought there was sufficient reason to expect more than five healthy innings from him, he’s certainly in play…six innings or more probably makes him a top play on this board.

Dan Straily faces the toughest offense against the handedness of the pitcher being faced tonight (125 wRC+, 18.5 K% vs RHP). Houston is also fifth best against fly ball pitchers (121 sOPS+). Fourteen of his 37 strikeouts have come in just one start, while he has failed to generate more than five in any other start and has a 36.1 Hard%. There are, however, a few things in his favor. The extreme fly ball slant has allowed him to generate nearly as many popups (11) as line drives (12) with an overall excellent batted ball profile, though not one that can continue to support a sub-.200 BABIP because those profiles don’t really exist. He’s also generated a swinging strike rate above 14% twice with just five strikeouts and has not fallen below 7.5% since his first start. The Astros also played a late Sunday game in New York before the flight down south this morning and the park is friendly to fly ball pitchers with its power suppressing tendencies. I still can’t be convinced to play more than $8K for him today.

Brandon McCarthy is in a great spot, but hasn’t pitched in over two weeks due to a shoulder issue. He has thrown more than 91 pitches just once and has just 14 total starts over the last two calendar years. He’d probably need to be nearly perfect as the highest priced pitcher on the board.

Yovani Gallardo generated some interest after striking out seven in back-to-back starts to finish off April, especially as he’s been pitching with increased velocity this year. However, he’s followed up with five walks and four strikeouts over his next two starts with a SwStr rate below 7%.

Joe Musgrove has disappointingly allowed eight HRs already and walked six of his last 43 batters, striking out more than five batters just once this year with a high of six. He walked just seven of 237 AAA batters faced last year. It’s not easy to figure out because his 49.8 Zone% is up four points from last year, while his 86.4 Z-Contact% is improved by the same amount. He is in a great spot in a power suppressing park against a Miami offense with just a 6.6 BB% vs RHP, but they also have an 18.9 HR/FB over the last week with a couple of bats that can take it out of any yard.

Mike Bolsinger walked and struck out four each in his Toronto debut. He has shown some strikeout upside in the past, but control and hard contact issues have frequently prevented him from going much more than five innings in starts. In fact, aside from “(player-popup)Brandon McCarthy”:/players/brandon-mccarthy-11040’s 14 starts, his 5.04 IP per game started are lowest on the board over the last two calendar years.

Bartolo Colon has a hard hit rate (38.5%) two and a half times more than his strikeout rate (15.7%) and has the highest rate of Barrels/PA (7.2%) on the board.

Mike Pelfrey has generated a 53.7 career GB% against RHP, so he may not exactly be a pitcher you need to attack with a predominantly RH lineup (Trout not included, obviously), but no, we’re never actually considering using him even if the Angels have a greatly increased strikeout rate against RHP (21.2%) this year. The Angels also have an 80 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers.

Matt Cain may have his ERA skewed by allowing nine runs two starts back, but it really only brings him in line with estimators he’s been escaping in other outings. He’s struck out more than three just twice this season. This is one of the few offenses than is not a favorable matchup even in this great park. The Dodgers pummel mediocre RHP and add a 116 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

There’s nothing worth looking into on this slate.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Luis Perdomo generates more ground balls than any starter in the game and has an atrocious defense, so the inclination is not to be surprised at a BABIP above .340 with a strand rate below 70% for the second straight season because ground balls generate higher BABIPs than fly balls. However, a further look shows an extremely low LD rate (14.6%), while the San Diego defense has been essentially league average in turning batted balls into outs and his hard hit rate is down to 20.7% (minus 13.3 points from last season). This appears flukier than you’d think and although the hard hit and line drive rates may increase, the profile generates more confidence in his ability to potentially improve that BABIP and strand rate going forward. The other thing to note here is that is low rate of Barrels is expected due to the extreme ground ball rate and not necessarily relevant to his BABIP, but great for his overall outlook.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

We’ve noted Luis Perdomo and Dan Straily on opposite ends of the extreme spectrum already today, but I also can’t go without mentioning how terrible the Mets’ defense is at turning batted balls into outs. Perhaps they’ll be smart enough to use Juan Lagares in the large outfield tonight and the absence of Asdrubal Cabrera may actually be a benefit, depending on who inherits the position tonight.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

We’re not using tiers tonight as the three usable pitchers (four if we count Anderson) all run fairly close together. It’s so much more about matchups than individual pitcher talent and accomplishments tonight.

Luis Perdomo (2) is probably your guy if looking for more on the pitcher talent/skill set end than matchup. The Brewers are a powerful offense, but do give up a bit in this park against an extreme ground ball pitcher and also tend to strike out a lot, so it’s not an entirely terrible matchup either. Less than $7K on either site, he’s right in line as a top two value play on either.

Jesse Chavez (1) may be in the top spot on the board at home against the White Sox. He may even have the top projected strikeout rate on tonight’s board (which still isn’t very much above average). Although sandwiched in the middle, he might be my top value pick on FanDuel for $600 less than DraftKings, where I’d have him third.

Zack Godley (3) is not without talent. He generates a good amount of swings and misses and keeps the ball on the ground. It’s a pretty terrible spot, as most matchups in this park are, and the cost of business has gone up, but it’s still more than enough to play on this slate. He and Perdomo are top value plays on DraftKings (each below $7K), though he falls a bit behind the two pitchers above at a $1.2K increase on FanDuel. Due to the Mets’ proclivity to punishing GB pitchers though, savvy players should be thinking about hedging here. Exposure to either side of this matchup is acceptable and possibly even mandatory if using him for multiple lineup players.

Chase Anderson may be worth some DraftKings SP2 exposure as well for under $7K, despite the potential issues with hard contact, as mentioned above, as is Zack Wheeler.
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