Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 16th
I apologize for abruptly missing an article for the first time this season on Saturday, but I had an emergency, spending most of Friday night at the vet and lost my cat Jade. As those of you who have pets know, they’re part of the family and it’s one of the rare times baseball doesn’t occupy a place at the front of my mind for a few days. Jade was the best, I’m gonna miss the hell out of her, and if I could, I’d post her picture for this article today instead of any of these other bums taking the mound.
No, they’re not all bums, but yeesh. I don’t know if the pricing is higher on pitching in general this year or there are more severe flaws in all of these arms because every day seems incredibly difficult and there are once again enormous price discrepancies between the two major sites, which will be covered again towards the bottom.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.2 | 3.94 | 5.28 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 4.2 | 3.65 | PHI | 68 | 64 | 96 |
| Chad Green | NYY | -1.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.07 | ARI | 94 | 93 | 104 | |||
| Derek Holland | TEX | 16.4 | 4.47 | 5.77 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 5.26 | 6.63 | OAK | 70 | 87 | 113 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | -1 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 1.02 | 3.49 | 3.49 | TOR | 101 | 100 | 108 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 2.9 | 3.91 | 5.89 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 4.03 | 4.15 | TAM | 108 | 111 | 99 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -2.1 | 3.61 | 6.08 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 2.78 | 5.04 | FLA | 109 | 101 | 88 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 0.7 | 4.16 | 6.02 | 1.86 | 0.95 | 4.21 | 5.24 | ATL | 55 | 40 | 62 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | -9.7 | 3.67 | 6.35 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 4.06 | 6.08 | MIN | 84 | 91 | 97 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -5 | 3.78 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 1.01 | 3.78 | 3.76 | DET | 87 | 107 | 103 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | -1 | 3.87 | 6.14 | 0.98 | 0.9 | 4.79 | 5.06 | ANA | 105 | 97 | 125 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 9.3 | 3.73 | 5.61 | 0.96 | 0.9 | 4.47 | 6.31 | LOS | 75 | 85 | 83 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.9 | 3.77 | 6.37 | 1.52 | 1.04 | 3.81 | 4.33 | KAN | 87 | 90 | 103 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -8.2 | 4.17 | 5.21 | 1.2 | 1.07 | 4.17 | 3.24 | NYY | 65 | 85 | 115 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -15.3 | 4.43 | 4.07 | 1.77 | 0.95 | 4.65 | 3.52 | TEX | 88 | 102 | 117 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -8.8 | 4.89 | 5.55 | 1.82 | 0.95 | 4.93 | 3.14 | PIT | 113 | 109 | 74 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 9.7 | 4.09 | 5.85 | 1.64 | 1.04 | 3.71 | 6.51 | BOS | 119 | 131 | 189 |
Adam Conley allowed exactly four runs in a start this year for the third time in seven starts. In three of the other four, he has not allowed a run. The walks and strikeouts have been all over the place and some manner of in between. I thought I had some idea what he was, but it turns out, he’s not going to be that easy to figure out. We do have some consistency in his SwStr at or above 9.5% in six of seven and that’s great. His hard hit rate is 35.1%, but it’s only been above 30% in one of his last four starts. In all, it’s not easy to tell what you’re going to get from him from start to start, but the overall numbers are fine. He has a great matchup against the second worst offense at home and vs LHP in the majors.
Drew Smyly is probably the top pitcher on the board despite being roughed up in Seattle last time out. He has faced Toronto twice in Tampa Bay already with a 27.1 K%, but he allowed 11 fly balls in each start with five of them leaving the yard. Only two of the remaining 35 fly balls have left the yard, both in that last start vs Seattle. This matchup is concerning, but while Toronto is hitting the ball hard at home, they’re not really torching left-handed pitching and especially good left-handed pitching this year. In fact, several LHPs have handled them well fairly recently at home.
Jerad Eickhoff has struck out just four of his last 45 batters and couldn’t even get out of the 5th inning in his last start against the Braves. He’s struck out four or fewer in four of seven starts with his SwStr% cratering in his last start (1.3%). He has pitched very well at home, but with a sample size too small to entirely buy into and three of his last four starts on the road. Maybe a return home will rejuvenate him? His overall rates don’t show anything too concerning, if we’re not expecting a pitcher much above average. Miami has shown enough offense that it’s not exactly a favorable spot here, but it’s not much worse than average.
Jon Niese has been terrible and I have no defense of any of his numbers. It’s been awful, but you know who’s been historically awful? The Braves! You can add their wRC+ on the road to their wRC+ vs LHP and it’s still not even 100. Nine of his 10 HR’s have been allowed on the road. He’s allowed just one in three home starts and Atlanta has absolutely no RH power in one of the worst parks for it in baseball.
Jose Berrios has had some control issues (eight walks) and some HR issues (four) with a lot of hard contact (21.0 Hard-Soft%) in the air (0.80 GB/FB), but has missed bats, striking out 19 of the 66 batters he’s faced so far with an 11.0 SwStr%. There is not a lot of that going on tonight and the Tigers strike out (27.4% on the road, 24.2% vs RHP), while showing not much more than average power this season in a neutral park.
Robbie Ray has a 15.2 HR/FB, but has allowed four of his five HRs in one starts at home against Colorado. He has a double digit walk rate (11.2%) and allows a lot of hard contact (20.0 Hard-Soft%). He should allow many more HRs and that’s why we’re usually off him despite a strong strikeout and swinging strike rate. Today, however, is an exception for a couple of reasons. First, it’s an ugly board on a short slate. Next, he faces a poor Yankees lineup that loses a DH and is weak vs LHP. Lastly, the cost is down.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
J.A. Happ (.277 BABIP – 89.9 LOB% – 8.5 HR/FB) could probably stand to see a few more strikeouts with a decent, but still below average SwStr%, but all you’re paying nearly $11K on DraftKings for a strand rate. His estimators are two full runs higher than his ERA.
Kenta Maeda (237 BABIP – 89.7 LOB% – 10.2 HR/FB) now has a league average HR rate after allowing four over three straight starts in which he’s struggled. He’s allowed 10 ERs in his last 17.2 IP with seven walks and just 15 strikeouts. After having a chase rate above 36% in four of his first five starts, it hasn’t exceeded 30% in either of his last two starts. Maybe that’s more patient teams in the Blue Jays and Mets or maybe information has gotten around on him. He was never really considered to be a top of the rotation arm when coming over from Japan, but due to his early performance, is still priced like one based on his strand rate. His SwStr has been at least 9.6% in every start, so there should be enough strikeouts there to be useful even with a lower chase rate, but he might have to make that adjustment a lot of Japanese pitchers do when they find major league batters won’t swing as often at pitchers out of the strike zone.
Jordan Zimmermann (.260 BABIP – 88.1 LOB% – 4.8 HR/FB) has struck out three or fewer in three of his last four starts and four of seven this year. He’s allowed a HR in each of his last three. He has had two starts where he was probably worth $10K and one of them was against Minnesota. There’s really no justification for his extremely high price though.
Williams Perez (.210 BABIP – 75.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB) is coming off his first competent major league start in four tries this season, tying his season high with four strikeouts. He went a full eight innings against the Phillies without a walk. He’s totaled 12.1 innings in his other three starts with more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rick Porcello has consistently allowed exactly three runs in six to seven innings in four of his last six starts, but none in the other two. He’s gone at least seven innings in every start, but still seems to have a bit of a HR problem, though he has allowed just one over his last four starts, so maybe he’s starting to figure that out. His BABIP is 61 points below his career rate, while his LOB% is 11 points above, though it’s not as apparent in his non-FIP ERA estimators because of the high HR rate. I’m also not buying his K% at all. His SwStr% is right at his career rate and hasn’t gone above 6.1% in any of his last three starts, in which his 19% strikeout rate has been just below average. I’ll buy that he might be an improved pitcher, but his cost tonight, against a low strikeout team is excessive. However, he’s one of many pitchers with a large gap, who might look a bit better, though still not great, on FanDuel for $8.5K.
Matt Shoemaker is a hard hit and HR machine, who hasn’t gotten past the fourth inning in four of his six starts. The one bit of good news is that his SwStr% is still near league average, but his weak fastball is being punished as he’s not getting as many swings and misses out of the strike zone on his slider and change. The Dodgers looked like they were getting started and have a 20.0 HR/FB over the last week, but nothing else. They’ll likely pop one or two tonight, but $4.6K on DraftKings seems almost break even, though he costs nearly $3K more for some odd reason on FanDuel.
Sean Manaea has struggled with just about everything through three starts, but the A’s don’t really have many other options right now.
Chad Green is a non-prospect who makes his major league debut less than two weeks from his 25th birthday in Arizona.
Derek Holland has a game log that, well, once you look, you can’t un-see it.
Yordano Ventura can’t find the plate (-1.2 K-BB% this season), has struck out a total of five over his last three starts and faces the Boston Maulers.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.3% | Road | 21.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 7.1% |
| Chad Green | Yankees | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.3% | Road | 12.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 10.8% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | L2 Years | 24.8% | 6.3% | Road | 26.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 4.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.5% | Home | 18.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.7% | 5.6% | Home | 29.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Jon Niese | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.7% | 6.8% | Home | 14.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 4.3% | Home | 17.8% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.1% | Road | 34.8% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 13.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.0% | Home | 18.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 12.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.6% | Road | 17.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.6% | 5.2% | Road | 19.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.6% | Home | 22.2% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.1% | 8.1% | Home | 19.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 2.5% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | L2 Years | 13.9% | 9.9% | Road | 12.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 0.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 9.5% | Home | 24.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 16.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 23.4% | 8.8% | LH | 24.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.1% | 7.5% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.3% | 6.7% | LH | 18.7% | 3.9% | L7Days | 18.2% | 5.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.5% | 9.7% | LH | 21.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.6% |
| Rays | Road | 27.2% | 8.7% | LH | 24.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 11.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.7% | 7.9% | RH | 18.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Road | 21.8% | 7.5% | LH | 25.9% | 5.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Road | 27.4% | 8.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 24.8% | 9.2% | RH | 24.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Road | 14.4% | 8.2% | RH | 16.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.9% | 7.9% | RH | 21.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.3% |
| Royals | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | RH | 19.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 18.6% | 5.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.5% | 7.6% | LH | 19.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 14.9% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.9% | 6.2% | LH | 20.4% | 5.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 10.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.5% | 11.2% | RH | 18.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.0% | 7.1% | RH | 18.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 26.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 2016 | 35.1% | 8.8% | 16.5% | Road | 23.5% | 7.7% | 1.3% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Chad Green | Yankees | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 8.8% | 17.9% | 2016 | 34.7% | 5.9% | 18.2% | Road | 37.7% | 13.0% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | L2 Years | 30.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 2016 | 28.6% | 12.3% | 6.3% | Road | 32.1% | 12.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 14.3% | 3.2% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.9% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 2016 | 29.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | Home | 29.8% | 5.0% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | -6.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 2016 | 30.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | Home | 27.2% | 5.6% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 22.2% | 10.5% |
| Jon Niese | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.6% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 2016 | 31.3% | 23.3% | 16.4% | Home | 33.0% | 15.3% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 27.3% | 22.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 2016 | 23.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | Home | 28.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 36.8% | 26.7% | 21.0% | 2016 | 36.8% | 26.7% | 21.0% | Road | 30.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 33.3% | 30.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 2016 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 5.0% | Home | 23.0% | 11.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 2016 | 35.8% | 17.1% | 23.2% | Road | 28.6% | 13.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 2016 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 13.5% | Road | 32.6% | 16.2% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 8.3% | 11.9% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.2% | 10.3% | 20.0% | 2016 | 36.2% | 15.2% | 20.0% | Home | 38.9% | 12.7% | 28.5% | L14 Days | 51.6% | 10.0% | 29.0% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 37.0% | 30.8% | 21.8% | 2016 | 37.0% | 30.8% | 21.8% | Home | 32.3% | 20.0% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 2016 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 4.7% | Road | 29.8% | 11.7% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 16.7% | -9.5% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 26.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 2016 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | Home | 32.2% | 6.2% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 9.1% | -2.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 18.9% | 6.9% | -2.9% | LH | 27.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.7% | 16.0% | 18.2% | RH | 32.8% | 12.0% | 13.7% | L7Days | 41.5% | 5.9% | 26.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | LH | 26.3% | 14.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.4% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 35.4% | 11.7% | 18.9% | LH | 30.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 28.3% | 11.4% | 6.6% |
| Rays | Road | 34.9% | 17.5% | 18.2% | LH | 32.7% | 15.5% | 15.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 20.8% | 14.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.3% | 12.3% | 3.6% | RH | 27.2% | 11.3% | 3.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | LH | 29.6% | 2.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 3.8% | -1.2% |
| Twins | Road | 29.2% | 11.5% | 10.5% | RH | 31.2% | 11.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 34.4% | 15.1% | 13.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 33.8% | 10.4% | 16.6% | RH | 32.6% | 13.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 16.1% | 1.1% |
| Angels | Road | 26.2% | 9.0% | 1.7% | RH | 29.0% | 10.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 34.5% | 13.6% | 17.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 30.2% | 13.2% | 11.3% | RH | 32.3% | 9.3% | 14.9% | L7Days | 35.0% | 20.0% | 22.1% |
| Royals | Home | 28.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% | RH | 28.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.4% | 14.3% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 26.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | LH | 28.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 14.8% | -1.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 29.2% | 11.1% | 9.4% | LH | 28.1% | 11.8% | 5.3% | L7Days | 25.4% | 12.3% | 4.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 26.7% | 11.0% | 5.9% | RH | 27.4% | 10.5% | 5.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 12.8% | -5.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 30.2% | 12.9% | 9.1% | RH | 33.3% | 12.5% | 15.1% | L7Days | 40.4% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 25.0% | 10.6% | 2.36 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 |
| Chad Green | NYY | ||||||
| Derek Holland | TEX | 13.1% | 7.1% | 1.85 | 10.5% | 6.0% | 1.75 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 30.1% | 13.4% | 2.25 | 30.0% | 12.3% | 2.44 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 15.7% | 8.9% | 1.76 | 15.8% | 8.3% | 1.90 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.43 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 2.53 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 16.0% | 6.4% | 2.50 | 12.7% | 5.7% | 2.23 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.18 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 2.01 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 28.8% | 11.0% | 2.62 | 28.8% | 11.0% | 2.62 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 22.2% | 12.1% | 1.83 | 24.2% | 12.5% | 1.94 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 13.8% | 9.1% | 1.52 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 1.29 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 24.9% | 7.5% | 3.32 | 24.7% | 7.2% | 3.43 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 24.6% | 11.2% | 2.20 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 2.44 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 12.1% | 5.1% | 2.37 | 9.7% | 5.1% | 1.90 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 15.4% | 8.4% | 1.83 | 11.5% | 7.0% | 1.64 |
Both major outliers were mentioned above with little overall interest in usage at current costs tonight.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.72 | 3.87 | 0.15 | 3.86 | 0.14 | 3.47 | -0.25 | 3.68 | 4.16 | 0.48 | 4.11 | 0.43 | 4 | 0.32 |
| Chad Green | NYY | ||||||||||||||
| Derek Holland | TEX | 6.09 | 5.23 | -0.86 | 5.31 | -0.78 | 4.11 | -1.98 | 8.06 | 5.62 | -2.44 | 5.69 | -2.37 | 4.34 | -3.72 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 3.63 | 2.87 | -0.76 | 3.36 | -0.27 | 3.4 | -0.23 | 3.19 | 2.9 | -0.29 | 3.36 | 0.17 | 3.12 | -0.07 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 2.05 | 4.53 | 2.48 | 4.36 | 2.31 | 3.91 | 1.86 | 1.98 | 4.37 | 2.39 | 4.12 | 2.14 | 3.85 | 1.87 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.43 | 3.65 | -0.78 | 3.59 | -0.84 | 3.57 | -0.86 | 5.65 | 3.84 | -1.81 | 3.67 | -1.98 | 4.3 | -1.35 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 5.63 | 4.58 | -1.05 | 4.66 | -0.97 | 6.23 | 0.6 | 5.59 | 5.07 | -0.52 | 5.03 | -0.56 | 6.6 | 1.01 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.5 | 4.67 | 3.17 | 4.62 | 3.12 | 3.42 | 1.92 | 2.06 | 4.47 | 2.41 | 4.41 | 2.35 | 3.51 | 1.45 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 6.28 | 3.78 | -2.5 | 3.95 | -2.33 | 5.94 | -0.34 | 6.28 | 3.78 | -2.5 | 3.95 | -2.33 | 5.94 | -0.34 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.3 | 3.87 | 1.57 | 4.08 | 1.78 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 3.19 | 3.95 | 0.76 | 4.28 | 1.09 | 4.41 | 1.22 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 9.12 | 5.21 | -3.91 | 5.26 | -3.86 | 6.2 | -2.92 | 10.91 | 5.09 | -5.82 | 5.06 | -5.85 | 6.91 | -4 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.11 | 3.29 | 0.18 | 3.36 | 0.25 | 3.62 | 0.51 | 2.68 | 3.32 | 0.64 | 3.4 | 0.72 | 3.33 | 0.65 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.84 | 4.09 | -0.75 | 4.01 | -0.83 | 4.38 | -0.46 | 5.87 | 3.39 | -2.48 | 3.23 | -2.64 | 4.56 | -1.31 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 11.37 | 4.42 | -6.95 | 4.53 | -6.84 | 7.03 | -4.34 | 11.37 | 4.43 | -6.94 | 4.53 | -6.84 | 7.03 | -4.34 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 3.54 | 4.93 | 1.39 | 4.74 | 1.2 | 4.71 | 1.17 | 2.3 | 4.48 | 2.18 | 4.27 | 1.97 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.62 | 6 | 1.38 | 5.93 | 1.31 | 5.43 | 0.81 | 5.54 | 6.33 | 0.79 | 6.36 | 0.82 | 5.81 | 0.27 |
Jerad Eickhoff has a 65.9 LOB% and it’s encouraging that this seems the biggest reason his ERA is above four. It’s been 55.1% over his last four starts, but with an 18.2 HR/FB and fewer missed bats, so he’s not completely blameless.
Jon Niese has a 23.3 HR/FB, but just one of 14 have left the yard at home. So, really, at home, he might just be bad.
Jose Berrios has been hit hard and allowed four HRs in three starts, as mentioned above. It’s just 14.1 innings though, so we can’t take his ERA or estimators too seriously. Seven good innings (or a few really bad ones) could change everything substantially tonight.
Robbie Ray has allowed a lot of hard contact with a high line drive rate not unexpected and few popups. A .380 BABIP is still a bit absurd for a major league pitcher. Even the worst major league pitchers probably sit somewhere around .320-.330 over the long run. This is not necessarily to say it’ll magically drop with all those line drives, but if he doesn’t make some adjustments, he won’t remain a major league starter for very long.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.303 | 0.287 | -0.016 | 0.245 | 0.0% | 88.5% |
| Chad Green | NYY | 0.309 | |||||
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.290 | 0.322 | 0.032 | 0.248 | 11.8% | 88.8% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.269 | 0.248 | -0.021 | 0.161 | 15.8% | 81.2% |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.278 | 0.277 | -0.001 | 0.239 | 8.5% | 83.6% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.284 | 0.303 | 0.019 | 0.224 | 19.0% | 89.4% |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 0.295 | 0.315 | 0.02 | 0.183 | 2.3% | 91.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.311 | 0.260 | -0.051 | 0.184 | 16.1% | 88.4% |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.319 | 0.382 | 0.063 | 0.25 | 6.7% | 84.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.268 | 0.237 | -0.031 | 0.164 | 18.4% | 82.1% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.290 | 0.337 | 0.047 | 0.304 | 11.4% | 87.9% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.304 | 0.250 | -0.054 | 0.189 | 4.8% | 86.0% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.307 | 0.380 | 0.073 | 0.275 | 3.0% | 85.4% |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.303 | 0.405 | 0.102 | 0.2 | 7.7% | 97.1% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.289 | 0.210 | -0.079 | 0.131 | 5.9% | 91.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.289 | 0.236 | -0.053 | 0.133 | 8.9% | 87.8% |
Drew Smyly has an excellent BABIP profile and though his LD rate is right on the edge of sustainable and a .248 BABIP may not be, he pitches in front of a defense that has annually had one of the lower BABIPs. I might even be more concerned with a guy like Adam Conley almost 40 points higher in front of a weaker BABIP defense and as a neutral batted ball pitcher with a high line drive rate and not a single popup yet.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
As I write this, DraftKings does not have a price on Chad Green. Of the other 15 listed pitchers on the night slate, only three have less than an $800 price differential between the two major sites. That makes things here a bit more difficult for a couple of the largest price gaps.
The most insanity occurs with Matt Shoemaker just $1.3K less than J.A. Happ on FanDuel, but $6.3K less on DraftKings. Or maybe it’s that Happ, Zimmerman, and Porcello are all above $10K at all on DraftKings.
Value Tier One
Jerad Eickhoff – I don’t have the confidence in this pick that you’re supposed to have in your top value, probably due to small sample size and most recent performance. However, he’s about two-thirds the cost of a few pitchers with much worse ERA estimators. This is probably a Tier Three guy on a good day, which goes to show you where the grading curve is tonight.
Jose Berrios has missed bats and has a history of doing so in the minors. He’s an elite pitching prospect. He’s had some issues, but it’s still just 14 innings and considering your other options, I’ll strongly consider the guy with the strong prospect with the strikeout upside tonight. However, he has a $1.5K price gap, where he rates more strongly on FanDuel (depending on how much faith you have in his team’s ability to get him a Win), while he could drop to the bottom of the next tier on DraftKings taking up more of your cap.
Value Tier Two
Adam Conley has been inconsistent, but decent overall. Encouragingly, he’s at least had a consistently average or better SwStr% in every start even if the strikeouts haven’t always followed. The Phillies are awful against LHP (and at home). He projects for one of the higher strikeout rates tonight and is one of just three pitchers priced similarly on both sites.
Drew Smyly (1) is in a difficult spot at the top or next highest cost, but still profiles as the top pitcher tonight with one of the top strikeout projections. He has had two difficult starts against the Blue Jays in a friendlier park, but still got his strikeouts. If you look at it another way, you may be getting a 30% strikeout rate at a discount and he’s earned it with the seventh best SwStr% in baseball. You don’t really have better choices tonight.
Jon Niese is pitching against the Braves at home. You can even bump him up a tier at a very low cost on DraftKings.
Value Tier Three
Robbie Ray is the low cost, strikeout upside pitcher we pick off the scrap heap in a decent spot on a short day. We’d probably look past him on a full slate and it still seems very borderline for a bit more on DraftKings, but he’s one of your lower priced pitchers in a decent spot on FanDuel.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
There is no Tier Four today, but look in the “No Thank You” section for a couple of pitchers who might be near a break even proposition in their lower priced version on the two major sites.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window