Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 23rd
There’s an interesting twist tonight on most sites and interesting twists may not always be what daily fantasy players want. A double header between Cleveland and Chicago starts at 5 pm, meaning the second game lineups won’t be announced into well after 7 pm lock. Naturally, the late swap site (DraftKings) would rather save players the headache, while the non-late swap sites are mostly including the game. Either way, our concern is pitching and we’ll cover Game Two, assuming we have the right order. Neither pitcher seems to be of much interest thankfully, but we have no idea as of now who’ll be in those lineups.
It also seems like things are finally spread out. We have top pitchers today (the top pitcher), middle of the rotation guys, and back end arms. Let’s hope this is the beginning of something special, giving us something to work with each day.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -13.6 | 3.91 | 6.58 | 1.6 | 0.97 | 3.75 | 4.39 | CHC | 115 | 111 | 80 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -3.5 | 3.89 | 6.3 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 3.95 | 5.21 | WAS | 90 | 87 | 94 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | -5.7 | 4.1 | 5.32 | 1.51 | 0.9 | 4.81 | 4.34 | LOS | 86 | 91 | 96 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4.8 | 2.13 | 7.36 | 1.75 | 0.9 | 1.79 | 1.27 | CIN | 70 | 103 | 61 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 10.2 | 4.77 | 5.72 | 1.29 | 0.99 | 4.08 | 4.13 | CHW | 89 | 93 | 68 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 13 | 4.53 | 5.78 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 4.38 | 5.75 | ANA | 100 | 90 | 112 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 2.5 | 3.68 | 5.33 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 3.81 | 3.26 | SFO | 113 | 106 | 72 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 5 | 4.84 | 5.71 | 0.52 | 0.99 | 5.44 | CLE | 83 | 102 | 129 | |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.9 | 3.67 | 5.82 | 1.69 | 1.02 | 3.43 | 3.19 | NYM | 108 | 85 | 78 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 6.8 | 3.67 | 5.86 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 4.41 | 3.27 | MIN | 79 | 86 | 52 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 11.6 | 3.79 | 6.54 | 1.36 | 0.97 | 3.92 | 3.42 | STL | 114 | 128 | 108 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -0.6 | 3.57 | 6.85 | 1.26 | 0.89 | 3.69 | 2.91 | SDG | 82 | 68 | 35 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.7 | 4.28 | 5.45 | 1.1 | 1 | 4.89 | 4.6 | FLA | 91 | 97 | 87 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -6.6 | 4.71 | 5.4 | 1.87 | 1.01 | 4.25 | 4.29 | PHI | 78 | 75 | 66 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 5.1 | 4.26 | 5.37 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 5.43 | 4.14 | TEX | 99 | 91 | 66 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | -14.1 | 3.12 | 6.02 | 1.42 | 0.9 | 2.85 | 3.58 | SEA | 96 | 108 | 126 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | -2.6 | 3.9 | 5.53 | 1.18 | 1.03 | 4.21 | 4.56 | KAN | 90 | 91 | 87 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -7.7 | 3.67 | 5.74 | 1.17 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 3.92 | OAK | 102 | 89 | 75 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | -0.2 | 3.39 | 5.74 | 0.76 | 1.01 | 4.32 | 2.85 | DET | 110 | 114 | 163 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 2 | 3.87 | 6.12 | 1.05 | 1 | 3.75 | 2.17 | TAM | 122 | 123 | 156 |
Clayton Kershaw has run his double digit strikeout string to six straight starts with a K rate that has eclipsed 40% over the last month. His 1.80 ERA is a half run or more above each of his estimators (.64 FIP).
Drew Pomeranz has a 30.3 K% and has struck out at least five in every start, but just a league average SwStr% over the last month with just five Ks in three of his last four. His last start was also against these Giants, a difficult offense to fan (17.6 K% vs LHP) and has struck out 11 of them in two starts (10.1 IP – 47 BF). He has only allowed more than two runs in one start this season (also @SF), while going at least six innings in most of them.
Gio Gonzalez has allowed more than one ER just twice, earned being the important word as he’s allowed four unearned and the ride’s been a bit choppier than ERA makes it look. His last two have been pretty good though (11.1 IP – 11 H – 3 R(1ER) – 1 BB – 12 K – 49 BF) with his top velocity of the season last time out against these same Mets. He has the lowest walk rate of his career (6.5%), but also the highest Hard% (32.7), though he’s still not allowing HRs (just three and an 8.5 career HR/FB). The Mets have struggled against LHP with a league high 27.0 K%.
Ian Kennedy was always going to be a problem in Yankee Stadium, where he allowed three HRs two starts back. He pitched well against Boston at home last time out, striking out nine. Keep him out of small parks and he should be fine for the most and though he’s not home tonight, Minnesota plays pitcher friendly against power and the Twins have just an 8.0 HR/FB at home. His SwStr% has dropped over the last month, but he’s still been in double digits two of his last five with his opponents striking out a bit more than average against RHP (23.4%).
Johnny Cueto just threw a complete game with nine strikeouts, allowing one run against these Padres. He also has a complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts against them a month back. They are one team you’re not concerned about a pitcher facing a third time in a month because they are the worst offense vs RHP in baseball 18.4 K-BB%. They also have a 19.9 K-BB% on the road, are the coldest bats in the league, and are coming off back to back extra-inning games, including 17 innings last night.
Rich Hill has pitched just as well as some higher cost pitchers today. His strikeout rate is down a bit since the start of the season, but still above average and nobody expected him to keep it at 30%. Control has been an issue (10.1 BB%), likely a reason why he hasn’t pitched more than six innings more than once, though he’s gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts, missing by only one out the once. He’s kept the ball in the park (two HRs) with a high ground ball rate (49.2%) in some favorable parks and pitches in another one tonight. Seattle is a powerful offense with an 18.9 HR/FB vs LHP, but Safeco mutes some of that, especially the RH power.
Taijuan Walker struggled in his last start in Baltimore and has allowed five HRs over his last three starts (two on the road in tough parks) and despite the above average K%, has struck out more than four just three times. Five of his eight walks have come in his last two starts. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last four starts. He has a 14.7 HR/FB at home since last season, but has kept the ball on the ground more often this season with both of his highest strikeout performances coming at home this season. He has a 21.8 K-BB% at home since last season and finds himself in a favorable spot against a below average offense that has just lost their top LH bat (Reddick).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Nicholas Tropeano (.325 BABIP – 89.7 LOB% – 11.3 HR/FB) doesn’t have any particular reason that stands out for his high BABIP (0.69 GB/FB, 18.8 LD%, 20.0 Hard-Soft%), but does profile as a pitcher who might allow quite a few HRs (seven over his last five starts). He also has a double digit walk rate, making that sky high strand rate even more puzzling. He had a double digit SwStr% in four of his first six starts, but has been below 9% in each of his last two with just five total strikeouts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ricky Nolasco has great peripherals (16.5 K-BB%), but we know by now not to entirely count on them. He’s now gone less than six innings in three of four starts, allowing fewer than four runs in just one of his last seven starts.
Wei-Yin Chen has struck out 18 of 51 Brewers and Phillies after failing to strike out a Philadelphia batter three starts back. The Rays strike out more than average (23.1% vs LHP) and are down one of their top RH bats and leadoff hitters for a while, but that doesn’t seem to have slowed them down. They punish LH pitchers on the road and have been just as hot as the Tigers with a 19.7 HR/FB over the last week. Chen has the highest GB rate (44.2%) of his career this year, but has always had HR issues and could be good for one or two here.
Vincent Velasquez has struck out more than six in just one of his last six starts and that occurred in his last start in which he lasted just five innings. Six of his eight starts have come against the below average offensive prowess of the NL East (though the Mets twice) with one of his two outside of division opponents being the Padres, which start we are still paying through the nose for. Detroit is not only a strong offense, but the hottest one in baseball and DraftKings is asking nearly $12K for him. FanDuel seems at least reasonable for $8.9K.
John Lackey is having a fine season and I have no issue with any of it, but I may have learned my lesson in sending good (not great) RHPs into St Louis last week with Jonathan Gray. Lackey probably has less upside and costs a lot more.
Bartolo Colon had not walked consecutive batters in nine years going into his last start. He did that twice and ended up with five walks, more than doubling his season total. He hasn’t walked more than 40 in a season since 2005. There were extenuating circumstances that I don’t want to go into here, but Big Bart made the front page of the New York Post that day due to his rather large appetites for many things it seems. It appears this has affected him. He faces the same team that struggles against RHPs again, but who’s to say the same issue is or isn’t going to affect him? The precise thing that makes him even at all useful here is that he never walks anyone. The thing is, DFS players don’t look to him for his ceiling, so if his floor is going to be lower, is it really worth the risk?
Matt Moore is still missing bats at a high rate on a start to start basis, but now has a 35.0 Hard% and 16.7 HR/FB with six allowed over his last five starts and occasional control problems too. The Marlins do have a 25.0 K% vs LHP and a 26.0 K% over the last week much due to their biggest RH bat, who has gone ice cold, but he hasn’t pitched in over a week, nor had a decent start this month.
Cody Anderson misses too many bats to not be better than he’s been. He’s allowed 10 HRs in just 32.2 innings, but only has a 28.1 Hard%.
Mike Pelfrey has allowed two ERs in 5.1 IP in each of his last two starts, but has a 20.8 Hard-Soft% on the season and has allowed multiple HRs in two of his last three starts. He has struck out more than three just once this season.
Adam Wainwright has slowly improved his walk and strikeout rates to more passable over the last month (in fact, the control portion has returned to being nearly impeccable), but still does not offer nearly enough upside in this matchup. He did allow less than three runs for the first time all season in his last outing and even shut out the Rockies for seven innings, while locating his sinker much better.
Brandon Finnegan walked none for the second time this season and in three starts, while striking out his second highest total of the season (six) against Cleveland. He still didn’t make it through six innings, walked five in the start in between, has allowed nine HRs in nine starts and has allowed exactly three runs in each of his last five starts. He might become a little more interesting next time if he pitches well here though. It’s never really been his talent that’s been in question.
Derek Holland still costs $7.2K on FanDuel, which is the same thing Matt Shoemaker cost on Saturday and look how that turned out, so who knows?
Erik Johnson probably isn’t going to be all that interesting no matter who’s in or out of the lineup with a 4.83 SIERA and double digit walk rate in just over 90 major league innings.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 17.2% | 5.5% | Home | 14.4% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 3.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.6% | 3.5% | Road | 15.6% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 21.0% | 10.2% | Road | 19.0% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.4% | 4.1% | Home | 36.9% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 1.7% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | L2 Years | 12.8% | 6.0% | Road | 12.6% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 6.2% | Home | 17.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 24.7% | 9.6% | Road | 26.1% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 10.4% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.5% | 11.4% | Home | 19.2% | 14.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.8% | 8.5% | Home | 22.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 6.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.3% | Road | 20.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 7.8% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.8% | 5.9% | Road | 19.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 4.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 22.0% | 5.8% | Home | 22.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 6.4% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.0% | Road | 16.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 12.1% | 7.0% | Home | 13.0% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.2% | Road | 20.0% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 22.1% | 9.1% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.3% | 9.3% | Road | 33.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 10.2% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.5% | Home | 16.7% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.2% | 6.3% | Home | 26.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.4% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.7% | 8.5% | Road | 23.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 9.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 4.8% | Home | 19.6% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 3.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 19.4% | 11.3% | RH | 19.8% | 11.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 11.3% | RH | 20.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.2% | 8.0% | LH | 20.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Road | 22.5% | 6.8% | LH | 18.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.0% | 10.7% | RH | 19.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.2% |
| Angels | Road | 15.6% | 7.9% | LH | 16.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.6% |
| Giants | Home | 16.9% | 11.0% | LH | 17.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| Indians | Road | 23.6% | 7.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.6% |
| Mets | Road | 23.7% | 8.4% | LH | 27.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.1% | 9.2% |
| Twins | Home | 18.8% | 7.3% | RH | 23.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 4.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.3% | 8.9% | RH | 19.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 11.6% |
| Padres | Road | 26.7% | 6.8% | RH | 25.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 7.4% | LH | 25.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.7% | 6.1% | RH | 21.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 5.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.0% | 8.4% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 3.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 10.3% | LH | 20.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 15.3% | 11.6% |
| Royals | Road | 19.7% | 5.6% | RH | 19.4% | 6.0% | L7Days | 19.0% | 4.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 6.2% | RH | 18.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 5.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.5% | 8.1% | RH | 23.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Rays | Road | 24.9% | 8.1% | LH | 23.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 26.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 2016 | 31.2% | 8.5% | 15.3% | Home | 25.6% | 0.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 7.1% | 16.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 2016 | 35.3% | 12.2% | 24.0% | Road | 28.5% | 11.0% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 18.2% | 27.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 31.9% | 18.5% | 11.6% | 2016 | 34.4% | 17.6% | 16.2% | Road | 34.0% | 15.8% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 11.1% | 31.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.5% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 2016 | 30.0% | 6.7% | 12.5% | Home | 25.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2016 | 28.1% | 22.7% | 9.9% | Road | 26.5% | 11.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 30.0% | 23.1% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 2016 | 32.1% | 4.8% | 12.8% | Home | 32.1% | 11.7% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | -6.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 2016 | 31.5% | 6.8% | 14.8% | Road | 25.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | L2 Years | 39.5% | 16.7% | 24.4% | 2016 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 31.2% | Home | 42.4% | 15.6% | 30.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.7% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 2016 | 32.7% | 5.8% | 13.0% | Home | 28.3% | 5.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 11.1% | 5.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 2016 | 35.1% | 11.3% | 14.5% | Road | 33.7% | 12.3% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 23.5% | 31.3% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.0% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 2016 | 34.5% | 9.6% | 21.1% | Road | 31.3% | 12.3% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 5.6% | -2.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 25.8% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 2016 | 27.7% | 4.0% | 6.4% | Home | 25.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 2016 | 35.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | Road | 32.2% | 7.7% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 16.7% | 12.2% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 2016 | 37.6% | 19.0% | 20.8% | Home | 28.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 28.6% | 6.6% | 14.1% | 2016 | 34.6% | 11.3% | 20.0% | Road | 25.5% | 10.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 36.5% | 13.0% | 25.0% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 2016 | 29.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | Road | 24.3% | 8.1% | -0.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.6% | 15.3% | 2016 | 32.5% | 11.9% | 15.6% | Home | 29.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.9% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 2016 | 28.1% | 16.2% | 5.4% | Home | 27.9% | 14.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 27.3% | 16.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 2016 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 2.6% | Road | 24.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 2016 | 32.7% | 12.8% | 16.7% | Home | 30.3% | 13.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 10.0% | 6.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 32.9% | 14.4% | 15.3% | RH | 32.2% | 12.1% | 13.7% | L7Days | 38.6% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 30.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | RH | 32.0% | 11.4% | 15.0% | L7Days | 34.6% | 6.4% | 16.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 30.5% | 14.5% | 12.2% | LH | 30.9% | 14.3% | 15.3% | L7Days | 33.0% | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| Reds | Road | 30.0% | 5.9% | 11.9% | LH | 28.3% | 15.0% | 14.7% | L7Days | 31.7% | 12.9% | 18.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.9% | 8.9% | 3.0% | RH | 27.5% | 9.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Angels | Road | 27.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | LH | 25.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | L7Days | 28.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% |
| Giants | Home | 28.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | LH | 27.8% | 8.7% | 4.6% | L7Days | 32.9% | 6.3% | 13.9% |
| Indians | Road | 30.2% | 10.6% | 12.1% | RH | 30.5% | 11.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 34.1% | 11.0% | 22.6% |
| Mets | Road | 35.1% | 16.5% | 21.9% | LH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.5% | 17.9% | -1.7% |
| Twins | Home | 31.9% | 8.0% | 14.0% | RH | 31.8% | 10.9% | 13.7% | L7Days | 32.4% | 10.3% | 13.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.6% | 13.8% | 16.8% | RH | 32.9% | 15.3% | 15.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 11.1% | 17.9% |
| Padres | Road | 34.7% | 13.7% | 18.4% | RH | 30.6% | 9.4% | 13.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 28.3% | 11.9% | 5.1% | LH | 33.3% | 13.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.9% | 9.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.4% | 10.4% | 8.9% | RH | 25.2% | 8.6% | 4.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.9% | 10.8% | 4.1% | RH | 27.9% | 11.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 10.2% | 19.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 26.8% | 13.5% | 6.2% | LH | 29.2% | 18.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| Royals | Road | 26.0% | 9.9% | 6.7% | RH | 28.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.4% | 12.6% | 11.3% | RH | 29.9% | 10.2% | 11.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 10.9% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 36.2% | 13.3% | 20.7% | RH | 34.5% | 13.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 40.7% | 18.3% | 28.5% |
| Rays | Road | 34.1% | 18.2% | 16.2% | LH | 32.2% | 15.8% | 15.1% | L7Days | 32.6% | 19.7% | 12.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 13.5% | 7.2% | 1.88 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.12 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 20.0% | 6.6% | 3.03 | 18.4% | 5.1% | 3.61 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.97 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.09 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 34.8% | 15.9% | 2.19 | 40.9% | 17.8% | 2.30 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 14.6% | 11.4% | 1.28 | 14.8% | 13.8% | 1.07 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.90 | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.38 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 30.3% | 12.5% | 2.42 | 27.4% | 9.7% | 2.82 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 24.0% | 7.4% | 3.24 | 24.0% | 7.4% | 3.24 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.19 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 2.22 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 24.8% | 10.3% | 2.41 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 2.59 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 25.1% | 12.5% | 2.01 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 2.05 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 23.2% | 10.4% | 2.23 | 26.2% | 10.8% | 2.43 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 23.0% | 11.5% | 2.00 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 1.87 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 12.1% | 8.6% | 1.41 | 12.6% | 9.3% | 1.35 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 21.9% | 12.3% | 1.78 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 1.80 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 28.4% | 10.9% | 2.61 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 2.44 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 20.9% | 9.1% | 2.30 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 2.43 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 22.9% | 9.1% | 2.52 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 2.47 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 30.9% | 11.5% | 2.69 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 2.78 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 20.9% | 8.4% | 2.49 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.48 |
Drew Pomeranz saw a large drop in his SwStr% over the last month and struck out no more than six in four of his five starts (10 Cubs two starts back). As mentioned above, he faced a difficult Giants offense twice in this span.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.92 | 4.77 | -1.15 | 4.54 | -1.38 | 3.99 | -1.93 | 4.84 | 4.15 | -0.69 | 3.79 | -1.05 | 3.6 | -1.24 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.75 | 3.8 | 0.05 | 3.64 | -0.11 | 3.65 | -0.1 | 4.3 | 4.18 | -0.12 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 4.09 | -0.21 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 4.44 | 4.83 | 0.39 | 4.7 | 0.26 | 5.45 | 1.01 | 5 | 4.79 | -0.21 | 4.72 | -0.28 | 5.44 | 0.44 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.67 | 1.87 | 0.2 | 1.78 | 0.11 | 1.32 | -0.35 | 1.8 | 1.31 | -0.49 | 1.18 | -0.62 | 0.64 | -1.16 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 7.99 | 4.46 | -3.53 | 4.58 | -3.41 | 6.43 | -1.56 | 8.35 | 4.38 | -3.97 | 4.22 | -4.13 | 5.96 | -2.39 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 5.63 | 5.35 | -0.28 | 5.51 | -0.12 | 4.04 | -1.59 | 7.71 | 6.23 | -1.48 | 6.4 | -1.31 | 4.74 | -2.97 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 1.96 | 3.49 | 1.53 | 3.51 | 1.55 | 2.85 | 0.89 | 1.91 | 3.7 | 1.79 | 3.71 | 1.8 | 3.07 | 1.16 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 7.2 | 4.28 | -2.92 | 4.68 | -2.52 | 7.67 | 0.47 | 7.2 | 4.28 | -2.92 | 4.68 | -2.52 | 7.67 | 0.47 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1.86 | 3.97 | 2.11 | 3.98 | 2.12 | 3.09 | 1.23 | 2.29 | 4.08 | 1.79 | 4.02 | 1.73 | 3.15 | 0.86 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.24 | 3.81 | 0.57 | 4.28 | 1.04 | 4.15 | 0.91 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 4.63 | 0.13 | 5.23 | 0.73 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.31 | 3.37 | 0.06 | 3.38 | 0.07 | 3.07 | -0.24 | 3.12 | 3.54 | 0.42 | 3.58 | 0.46 | 3.15 | 0.03 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.7 | 3.26 | 0.56 | 3 | 0.3 | 2.21 | -0.49 | 2.11 | 2.94 | 0.83 | 2.65 | 0.54 | 2 | -0.11 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 5.09 | 3.76 | -1.33 | 3.82 | -1.27 | 4.44 | -0.65 | 6.51 | 4.36 | -2.15 | 4.27 | -2.24 | 5.38 | -1.13 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 5.49 | 5.14 | -0.35 | 4.88 | -0.61 | 5.8 | 0.31 | 6.49 | 4.59 | -1.9 | 4.41 | -2.08 | 5.57 | -0.92 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 3.3 | 4.53 | 1.23 | 4.92 | 1.62 | 4.76 | 1.46 | 4.09 | 4.47 | 0.38 | 4.79 | 0.7 | 5.49 | 1.4 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 2.54 | 3.46 | 0.92 | 3.65 | 1.11 | 2.9 | 0.36 | 2.05 | 3.89 | 1.84 | 4.12 | 2.07 | 3 | 0.95 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 4.74 | 3.69 | -1.05 | 3.76 | -0.98 | 3.71 | -1.03 | 6.21 | 3.67 | -2.54 | 3.88 | -2.33 | 4.44 | -1.77 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 2.95 | 3.29 | 0.34 | 3.22 | 0.27 | 3.67 | 0.72 | 4.01 | 3.29 | -0.72 | 3.2 | -0.81 | 4.36 | 0.35 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 2.42 | 3.01 | 0.59 | 3.22 | 0.8 | 2.42 | 0 | 3.41 | 3.86 | 0.45 | 3.87 | 0.46 | 2.69 | -0.72 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.22 | 3.61 | -0.61 | 3.42 | -0.8 | 3.49 | -0.73 | 3.82 | 3.7 | -0.12 | 3.45 | -0.37 | 3.65 | -0.17 |
Drew Pomeranz should sustain a .238 BABIP despite a strong profile. Remember, it’s the Padres defense behind him. They’re not as bad as last year, but still have largely flawed spots. An 82.6 LOB% is unsustainable as in I don’t expect him to maintain a strikeout rate above 30%. A 6.8 HR/FB isn’t too bad, but might still be a little too low for even Petco. Would the Padres take a Pomeranz with an ERA around three?
Gio Gonzalez has a stronger a strong BABIP profile, but LD and IFFB rates well off his career marks, dropping his BABIP well below his career mark with a career high 80.3 LOB%. His 5.8 HR/FB is also the lowest of his career, but it hasn’t been above 7.0 since 2013.
Ian Kennedy has a BABIP 31 points below his career average, but has decent indicators and a stronger defense this year, but it’s the 83.7 LOB% that seems most out of line. He might be a bit better than his estimators under current circumstances (defense, park), but a bit worse than his current ERA.
Rich Hill has just a 5.0 HR/FB, but has a decent ground ball rate and a HR/FB just under double digits for his career. This has been a good pitcher.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.286 | 0.337 | 0.051 | 0.277 | 6.8% | 93.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.315 | 0.313 | -0.002 | 0.271 | 12.2% | 91.3% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.291 | 0.248 | -0.043 | 0.255 | 3.9% | 87.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.271 | 0.268 | -0.003 | 0.22 | 11.1% | 81.2% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.277 | 0.369 | 0.092 | 0.225 | 9.1% | 85.2% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.285 | 0.299 | 0.014 | 0.221 | 14.5% | 89.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 0.296 | 0.238 | -0.058 | 0.142 | 11.4% | 81.6% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 0.280 | 0.429 | 0.149 | 0.125 | 14.3% | 87.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.283 | 0.257 | -0.026 | 0.144 | 15.4% | 87.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.290 | 0.258 | -0.032 | 0.169 | 9.7% | 83.3% |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.251 | 0.263 | 0.012 | 0.216 | 7.7% | 86.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.007 | 0.239 | 10.0% | 88.4% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.269 | 0.310 | 0.041 | 0.212 | 6.3% | 81.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.308 | 0.340 | 0.032 | 0.231 | 9.5% | 85.2% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.286 | 0.325 | 0.039 | 0.188 | 6.5% | 83.0% |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 0.302 | 0.277 | -0.025 | 0.175 | 10.0% | 76.5% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.316 | 0.306 | -0.01 | 0.176 | 6.8% | 89.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.271 | 0.279 | 0.008 | 0.216 | 8.1% | 87.3% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.280 | 0.265 | -0.015 | 0.184 | 18.4% | 80.6% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.304 | 0.319 | 0.015 | 0.238 | 4.3% | 88.9% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
DraftKings continues is assault on the mid-range price tier. Every pitcher is either priced above $8K (10) or below $6.5K (8) tonight. A stars and scrubs approach? They immediately take a few otherwise interesting pitchers off the board and they were mentioned above. I may have to even add another section should this be the way it’s going to continue this year. Aside from Kershaw and Cueto, FanDuel keeps things much closer together.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw may eventually have a poor game this year, but we’re probably never going to see it coming and is there any other combination of players you can roster for his price that will bring you 25-33% of the way to the cash line more consistently?
Value Tier Two
There really is no Tier Two today because nobody comes close to Kershaw, but there is one guy who appears to separate himself a little bit from the rest of the pack.
Rich Hill is probably the best pitcher in a decent spot we get for below $10K tonight. The Mariners are a dangerous offense, but project as a neutral matchup at home tonight. Expectations probably shouldn’t be for more than six innings, but quality work while he’s in there. The walks would be a concern here and are one reason it’s difficult to separate him to much from the pitchers below, but I felt I needed to promote at least one arm above that group.
Value Tier Three
Johnny Cueto has dominated a now exhausted and terrible San Diego offense twice over the last month (18 IP – 11 H – 1 ER – 3 BB – 19 K – 64 BF), but you’re paying for every bit of that dominance tonight.
Taijuan Walker – His last few starts don’t inspire much confidence, though he left one a bit early due to injury I believe and the strikeout numbers are a bit over-stated and up and down. He generally pitches very well at home though and comes at a reduced cost against a struggling and below average offense without their best LH bat.
Drew Pomeranz is about as close as we get to a mid-price on DraftKings, but is one of the higher priced pitchers on FanDuel for just $500 more. The Giants strike out less than average, though 23.4% against him in two starts over the last month, but there’s something about an offense seeing the same pitcher three times in four weeks that makes me want to be at least a bit cautious here.
Gio Gonzalez runs a bit high on DK ($9.9K) and has a ton of regression in his ERA (it may even double), but the Mets have struck out more often than any offense vs LHP and he at least seems to have some skill in suppressing HRs. He’s allowed just 47 since being traded to the Nationals before the start of the 2012 season, though the Mets got him for one in his last start.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Ian Kennedy is where a $2K price difference really makes things difficult. Asking more than $10K for him is a bit frustrating on DraftKings (it means there’s an expectation of at least 20 points), but I’d put him solidly amongst the Tier Three pitchers at a much lower cost on FanDuel.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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