Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 18th
With just five games on a late slate starting at 8:15 ET on Saturday, I was inclined to cover the late afternoon one with seven games, but gathering pitching information for that slate proved to be impossible. There are pitchers who haven’t pitched in a while, pitchers who haven’t pitched this year, a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the majors at all, and even two teams that haven’t named a pitcher as of 10pm on Friday night. The good news is it’s a very strong set of clearly usable, but expensive arms on a small slate tonight.
NOTE: Tim Lincecum pitches for the Angels now, not the Giants. I just realized that I forgot to change his team this morning upon import, which still had the old one because he hasn’t pitched for a new team yet. Therefor he’s facing the wrong team below and it’s too late to fix. My apologies.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 3.2 | 6.07 | 4.46 | 1.1 | 0.87 | 5.37 | 6.04 | NYM | 96 | 100 | 106 |
| Albert Suarez | SFO | 7 | 4.11 | 5.55 | 2.29 | 0.97 | 4.25 | 4.08 | TAM | 89 | 96 | 94 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -7.1 | 3.54 | 5.92 | 2.05 | 0.97 | 3.83 | 3.63 | TEX | 91 | 92 | 108 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -5.5 | 4.11 | 5.53 | 1.12 | 0.9 | 3.92 | 4 | LOS | 87 | 90 | 98 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | -5.7 | 4.59 | 5.33 | 1.52 | 0.86 | 4.41 | 3.92 | WAS | 104 | 94 | 99 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.1 | 3.17 | 6.81 | 3.08 | 1.01 | 3.36 | 2.08 | CIN | 82 | 96 | 72 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 10.8 | 3.42 | 6.08 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 3.49 | 4.26 | CHW | 87 | 86 | 91 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 4.5 | 4.33 | 6.11 | 1.51 | 1.04 | 3.8 | 5.18 | DET | 103 | 109 | 134 |
| James Shields | CHW | 2.6 | 3.85 | 6.25 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 4.54 | 6.94 | CLE | 119 | 98 | 84 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 9.8 | 3.18 | 6.64 | 1.45 | 1.03 | 2.9 | 2.21 | PIT | 97 | 113 | 45 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 1.7 | 4.14 | 5.97 | 2.01 | 1.03 | 4.53 | 4.2 | CHC | 104 | 117 | 125 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -7 | 4.78 | 4.83 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 3.92 | 5.77 | KAN | 106 | 99 | 133 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | -4 | 4.3 | 5.57 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 3.71 | 3.45 | SFO | 91 | 101 | 126 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 6.6 | 2.78 | 6.82 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 3.69 | 2.23 | SDG | 87 | 75 | 103 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | -0.9 | 3.95 | 5.26 | 1.62 | 0.9 | 3.75 | 3.63 | MIL | 83 | 90 | 103 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 10.9 | 4.95 | 5.63 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 5.63 | 2.4 | STL | 107 | 119 | 77 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 5.4 | 4.5 | 6.42 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 4.64 | 5.69 | BAL | 105 | 112 | 116 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.6 | 3.75 | 6.34 | 1.52 | 1.07 | 3.73 | 3.96 | SEA | 111 | 117 | 103 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -4.8 | 3.39 | 6. | 1.71 | 0.87 | 3.51 | 3.29 | ATL | 73 | 58 | 95 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 7 | 4.47 | 5.34 | 1.45 | 0.97 | TAM | 89 | 96 | 94 | ||
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.5 | 4.33 | 6.46 | 2.4 | 1 | 4.15 | 5.04 | FLA | 84 | 95 | 100 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 1.4 | 3.99 | 6.07 | 1.02 | 1 | 4.52 | 4.18 | COL | 86 | 84 | 109 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -4.5 | 4.37 | 5.64 | 1.67 | 1.04 | 5.96 | TOR | 99 | 108 | 189 |
Chase Anderson has gone more than five innings in just five of 13 starts, but he is missing bats at nearly a league average rate over the last month with an above average K%. He’s still allowed hard contact in the air (0.94 GB/FB, 17.3 Hard-Soft%), which could be a problem against an offense with a 14.9 HR/FB at home, but the Dodger offense still lines up as a favorable matchup in a negative run environment.
Jon Lester has pitched more than six innings with seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts and hasn’t walked a batter over 24 innings covering his last three. While his ERA is still flying below his estimators, he has now surpassed his peripherals from the last few years with a career high 20.6 K-BB%. The Pittsburgh offense has a 24.6 K% vs LHP, though also a 17.0 Hard-Soft% with a heavily right-handed lineup that would seem threatening here. However, they have been ice cold over the last week (23.5 K-BB%).
Max Scherzer has tonight’s second best matchup against the second worst offense against RHP (17.7 K-BB%). All four of his double digit strikeout performances this season have come in his last seven starts, in which he’s failed to pitch seven innings just once (only by two outs). The long ball would be your only concern and the Padres have had just below average power at home and vs RHP.
Mike Bolsinger has been a really strong pitcher for five innings. He’s allowed seven HRs in five starts, but has covered it with a 16.4 K-BB% that’s well above average. A 43.7 Hard% with a 0.76 GB/FB is incredibly worrisome, but he’s facing an offense with a 26% strikeout rate both on the road and vs RHP. Hard contact might be more tolerable here if they’re putting the bat on the ball less frequently.
Steven Matz struggled his last time out and really his last two a bit despite it not showing in his game log against the Pirates. The issue I’ve seen in watching his questionable starts is that when something goes wrong, he’ll let it snowball and stop locating his breaking ball. This more results in hangers than pitches off the plate. It’s nothing that should be able to be resolved quickly between starts. His 19.5 K-BB% and 53.0 GB% are both 14th in baseball, while his 24.1 Hard% is seventh lowest. There’s no doubt he’s been an All Star quality pitcher. The Braves have looked like a major league offense recently, but are still the worst offense on the road (5.0 HR/FB, 4.3 Hard-Soft%) and vs LHP (16.6 K-BB%, 4.7 HR/FB) and are still tonight’s top park adjusted matchup.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Edinson Volquez has been pitching poorly recently. Even in his last start, which consisted of seven shutout innings against Cleveland, he struck out (three) fewer than he walked (four). We’ve occasionally considered him in good spots at home, but this only has half of the equation present.
Jon Niese has been pitching reasonably well, but still missing bats at well below a league average rate and perhaps has the toughest matchup on the night slate.
Colin Rea has struck out nine of his last 47 batters and even had his third start with a double digit SwStr% this season last time out. The problem is that he hasn’t exceeded 6.5% in any of his other nine starts.
Matt Boyd has shown an occasional ability to miss a few bats, but has now added surprising control issues (10.0 BB%) to many HRs (22 in 83 career major league innings, five in 25 this year).
Aaron Blair now has a -1.1 K-BB% through 40 innings. I don’t remember the last pitcher to have more walks than strikeouts with that many innings.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 12.1% | 13.2% | Road | 14.0% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| Albert Suarez | Giants | L2 Years | 12.3% | 4.7% | Road | 17.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.3% | 8.3% | Home | 22.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 8.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.8% | Road | 21.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 4.7% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 17.5% | 9.0% | Home | 16.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.3% | Home | 20.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 3.8% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.5% | 8.0% | Home | 27.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 17.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.2% | 8.9% | Home | 20.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 13.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.9% | 8.0% | Road | 15.9% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.9% | 5.3% | Home | 29.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| Jon Niese | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.7% | 6.7% | Road | 15.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 5.7% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 8.6% | Road | 23.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 15.2% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.6% | Home | 26.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 5.3% | Road | 28.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 2.0% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.8% | Home | 25.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 4.8% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.9% | 8.4% | Road | 13.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.2% | Road | 16.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 11.7% | 10.4% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.9% | 4.8% | Home | 25.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 23.8% | 5.5% | Home | 21.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.9% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | L2 Years | 17.6% | 10.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.1% | 7.7% | Road | 18.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.3% | Home | 20.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 2.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.6% | 7.6% | Home | 20.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 23.8% | 9.7% | RH | 23.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 5.9% |
| Rays | Home | 26.0% | 8.0% | RH | 25.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.3% | 6.1% | RH | 18.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | RH | 20.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 9.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 8.8% | RH | 20.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.3% |
| Reds | Road | 22.3% | 7.5% | LH | 22.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 11.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 7.1% | RH | 20.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 7.3% | RH | 22.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.7% |
| Indians | Home | 18.9% | 9.9% | RH | 21.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.1% | 8.1% | LH | 24.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 4.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 12.2% | LH | 20.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 26.2% | 11.3% |
| Royals | Home | 18.3% | 6.7% | LH | 19.5% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.7% |
| Giants | Road | 17.0% | 8.5% | LH | 19.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.3% |
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 6.9% | RH | 24.0% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.7% | 10.1% | RH | 26.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.7% | 8.2% | RH | 19.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.4% | 9.1% | RH | 23.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 5.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.4% | 8.2% | RH | 19.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.2% | 7.3% | LH | 22.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.2% |
| Rays | Home | 26.0% | 8.0% | RH | 25.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.9% | 7.2% | RH | 18.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 22.1% | 6.6% | LH | 24.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.3% | 9.6% | RH | 22.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 11.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 2016 | 25.9% | 9.8% | 4.3% | Road | 34.2% | 0.0% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 7.7% | -3.4% |
| Albert Suarez | Giants | L2 Years | 26.7% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 2016 | 26.7% | 0.0% | 5.8% | Road | 31.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 2016 | 31.8% | 10.5% | 16.8% | Home | 29.6% | 15.6% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 12.5% | 25.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.0% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 2016 | 35.6% | 16.1% | 17.3% | Road | 35.4% | 20.0% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 32.0% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 2016 | 29.9% | 11.1% | 11.9% | Home | 32.9% | 9.5% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 16.7% | 23.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 23.0% | 13.4% | -0.4% | 2016 | 30.3% | 17.9% | 8.2% | Home | 29.9% | 11.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 33.3% | 14.7% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 30.4% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 2016 | 32.0% | 7.9% | 14.0% | Home | 31.5% | 3.1% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 18.2% | 30.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 27.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 2016 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 1.5% | Home | 21.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.1% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 2016 | 34.5% | 17.3% | 19.2% | Road | 32.3% | 19.2% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 28.6% | 27.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.7% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2016 | 27.3% | 9.6% | 7.0% | Home | 31.4% | 13.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 0.0% | -16.2% |
| Jon Niese | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.5% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2016 | 28.7% | 21.2% | 12.6% | Road | 32.8% | 26.3% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 22.2% | 13.9% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.7% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 2016 | 32.9% | 16.7% | 11.4% | Road | 38.7% | 30.8% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 20.0% | 25.8% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 2016 | 35.5% | 15.4% | 16.9% | Home | 34.9% | 15.7% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 11.8% | 13.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 2016 | 25.8% | 16.5% | 0.0% | Road | 22.7% | 16.2% | -7.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 7.1% | -6.4% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 2016 | 43.7% | 24.1% | 25.4% | Home | 53.3% | 25.0% | 40.0% | L14 Days | 60.0% | 36.4% | 56.7% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 2016 | 10.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% | Road | 10.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | -25.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 26.0% | 10.9% | 5.9% | 2016 | 29.0% | 13.8% | 8.3% | Road | 25.6% | 7.5% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 13.6% | 3.4% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2016 | 28.7% | 14.0% | 12.3% | Home | 28.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 23.1% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2016 | 24.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | Home | 25.6% | 14.3% | -1.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 27.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 2016 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | Road | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 2016 | 36.3% | 16.5% | 22.1% | Home | 36.2% | 9.1% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 48.8% | 36.8% | 36.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.4% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 2016 | 26.9% | 3.8% | 13.5% | Home | 7.7% | 0.0% | -7.7% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 33.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% | RH | 34.0% | 15.2% | 16.2% | L7Days | 37.1% | 14.9% | 14.5% |
| Rays | Home | 34.6% | 12.5% | 15.0% | RH | 34.4% | 15.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 36.6% | 10.3% | 20.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.4% | 14.1% | 12.7% | RH | 28.4% | 12.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 37.5% | 21.4% | 20.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 31.5% | 14.9% | 13.0% | RH | 33.0% | 13.0% | 15.6% | L7Days | 40.4% | 15.1% | 25.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.9% | 15.7% | 17.9% | RH | 32.5% | 14.1% | 15.3% | L7Days | 30.2% | 13.3% | 13.6% |
| Reds | Road | 30.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | LH | 29.2% | 16.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 28.0% | 6.7% | 10.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 26.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | RH | 27.5% | 10.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 32.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | RH | 32.1% | 13.6% | 14.3% | L7Days | 33.2% | 18.3% | 15.0% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.5% | 15.6% | RH | 31.2% | 13.1% | 14.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 13.6% | 14.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 12.4% | 10.1% | LH | 34.8% | 14.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 28.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 29.1% | 12.0% | 9.5% | LH | 30.1% | 14.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 31.6% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| Royals | Home | 29.5% | 10.8% | 7.2% | LH | 26.1% | 12.5% | 4.8% | L7Days | 31.7% | 18.3% | 11.5% |
| Giants | Road | 32.9% | 12.0% | 13.4% | LH | 26.9% | 9.7% | 3.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Padres | Home | 29.3% | 11.9% | 11.8% | RH | 31.2% | 11.2% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 13.2% | 12.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% | RH | 32.0% | 14.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 29.7% | 15.3% | 12.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.6% | 13.5% | 16.3% | RH | 33.3% | 15.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.9% | 15.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.0% | 15.3% | 10.8% | RH | 32.4% | 16.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 30.1% | 23.6% | 11.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.3% | 15.7% | 12.9% | RH | 32.5% | 16.0% | 14.9% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Braves | Road | 25.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | LH | 27.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| Rays | Home | 34.6% | 12.5% | 15.0% | RH | 34.4% | 15.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 36.6% | 10.3% | 20.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 29.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | RH | 29.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 11.4% | 14.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.8% | 14.1% | 9.5% | LH | 32.9% | 15.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 38.0% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.7% | 15.1% | 11.6% | RH | 33.9% | 14.6% | 16.1% | L7Days | 40.4% | 21.6% | 20.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 12.1% | 8.4% | 1.44 | 16.1% | 10.1% | 1.59 |
| Albert Suarez | SFO | 12.3% | 9.0% | 1.37 | 12.2% | 9.2% | 1.33 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.28 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 19.1% | 7.8% | 2.45 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.52 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 16.5% | 6.2% | 2.66 | 16.7% | 5.4% | 3.09 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.23 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 2.98 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 29.8% | 12.1% | 2.46 | 27.5% | 10.2% | 2.70 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.06 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 2.06 |
| James Shields | CHW | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.82 | 14.4% | 7.3% | 1.97 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.8% | 10.4% | 2.48 | 26.6% | 12.1% | 2.20 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 16.1% | 7.5% | 2.15 | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.90 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 18.2% | 8.9% | 2.04 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 2.34 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.07 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 2.19 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 31.6% | 14.8% | 2.14 | 30.9% | 15.0% | 2.06 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.18 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.18 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.3% | 12.1% | 1.10 | 20.0% | 15.6% | 1.28 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 16.0% | 8.8% | 1.82 | 14.9% | 8.0% | 1.86 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.85 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 2.38 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 24.3% | 9.6% | 2.53 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 2.12 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | ||||||
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 15.1% | 7.3% | 2.07 | 13.1% | 5.5% | 2.38 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.26 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.94 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 10.8% | 5.1% | 2.12 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 7.59 | 6.06 | -1.53 | 6.16 | -1.43 | 5.69 | -1.9 | 7.58 | 5.66 | -1.92 | 6.33 | -1.25 | 6.82 | -0.76 |
| Albert Suarez | SFO | 3.33 | 4.1 | 0.77 | 4.23 | 0.9 | 2.95 | -0.38 | 3.91 | 4.01 | 0.1 | 4.18 | 0.27 | 2.96 | -0.95 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.46 | 4.03 | 0.57 | 3.93 | 0.47 | 3.72 | 0.26 | 3.9 | 3.59 | -0.31 | 3.44 | -0.46 | 2.98 | -0.92 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 4.42 | 4.28 | -0.14 | 4.47 | 0.05 | 5.02 | 0.6 | 2.96 | 3.71 | 0.75 | 4.06 | 1.1 | 3.69 | 0.73 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 5.37 | 4.8 | -0.57 | 4.72 | -0.65 | 4.53 | -0.84 | 7.65 | 4.54 | -3.11 | 4.4 | -3.25 | 4.14 | -3.51 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 5.54 | 3.64 | -1.9 | 3.4 | -2.14 | 3.83 | -1.71 | 5.74 | 2.44 | -3.3 | 2.43 | -3.31 | 3.2 | -2.54 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 2.19 | 3.79 | 1.6 | 3.67 | 1.48 | 3.15 | 0.96 | 3 | 4.24 | 1.24 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 4.18 | 1.18 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.9 | 4.43 | 0.53 | 4.32 | 0.42 | 4.02 | 0.12 | 4.42 | 4.66 | 0.24 | 4.45 | 0.03 | 4.61 | 0.19 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.45 | 4.72 | -0.73 | 4.55 | -0.9 | 5.17 | -0.28 | 10.88 | 5.29 | -5.59 | 5.43 | -5.45 | 7.3 | -3.58 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 1.89 | 3.29 | 1.4 | 3.18 | 1.29 | 2.84 | 0.95 | 1.91 | 3.02 | 1.11 | 2.97 | 1.06 | 2.32 | 0.41 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 4.6 | 4.37 | -0.23 | 4.24 | -0.36 | 5.21 | 0.61 | 3.56 | 4 | 0.44 | 3.81 | 0.25 | 3.96 | 0.4 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.91 | 4.78 | -0.13 | 4.78 | -0.13 | 5.4 | 0.49 | 6 | 4.57 | -1.43 | 4.68 | -1.32 | 5.66 | -0.34 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 5.05 | 4 | -1.05 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 4.62 | -0.43 | 4.99 | 4.18 | -0.81 | 4.56 | -0.43 | 4.8 | -0.19 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 | 3.28 | -0.12 | 3.83 | 0.43 | 2.43 | 2.96 | 0.53 | 3.3 | 0.87 | 2.84 | 0.41 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 5.76 | 3.95 | -1.81 | 4.2 | -1.56 | 5.94 | 0.18 | 5.76 | 3.95 | -1.81 | 4.2 | -1.56 | 5.94 | 0.18 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.38 | 4.71 | 1.33 | 5.63 | 2.25 | 5.01 | 1.63 | 0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.16 | 4.82 | 0.66 | 4.65 | 0.49 | 4.81 | 0.65 | 3.96 | 5.08 | 1.12 | 4.95 | 0.99 | 5.78 | 1.82 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.81 | 3.78 | -0.03 | 3.95 | 0.14 | 4.13 | 0.32 | 4.31 | 4.04 | -0.27 | 4.41 | 0.1 | 4.54 | 0.23 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 2.71 | 3.24 | 0.53 | 3.04 | 0.33 | 2.61 | -0.1 | 2.56 | 3.3 | 0.74 | 3.16 | 0.6 | 2.47 | -0.09 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | ||||||||||||||
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.89 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 4.13 | 1.24 | 3.85 | 0.96 | 2.43 | 4.59 | 2.16 | 4.27 | 1.84 | 3.29 | 0.86 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.68 | 4.09 | -0.59 | 4.12 | -0.56 | 4.71 | 0.03 | 5.46 | 4.67 | -0.79 | 5.11 | -0.35 | 6.71 | 1.25 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 7 | 5.65 | -1.35 | 5.68 | -1.32 | 4.03 | -2.97 |
Jon Lester is one of several Cubs starters with a great batted ball profile leading to a lower BABIP. It’s difficult to separate whether it’s the pitching or defense that is responsible for the low team BABIP, but it’s probably a little of both. Lester does have a .300 career BABIP with similar indicators for his career though. His 85.9 LOB% is too high even if he retains a 25% strikeout rate and some manner of lower BABIP.
Mike Bolsinger has been allowing a ton of hard contact (25.4 Hard-Soft%), leading to a 24.1 HR/FB, which will inevitably decline, but perhaps by not as much as you’d hope.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 0.290 | 0.321 | 0.031 | 0.219 | 21.6% | 88.6% |
| Albert Suarez | SFO | 0.291 | 0.267 | -0.024 | 0.188 | 4.8% | 89.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.286 | 0.255 | -0.031 | 0.162 | 3.5% | 87.2% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.303 | 0.259 | -0.044 | 0.207 | 6.9% | 86.6% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.304 | 0.299 | -0.005 | 0.233 | 12.7% | 91.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.310 | 0.339 | 0.029 | 0.205 | 12.5% | 87.3% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.285 | 0.251 | -0.034 | 0.135 | 12.7% | 80.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.291 | 0.292 | 0.001 | 0.165 | 6.3% | 88.2% |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.301 | 0.329 | 0.028 | 0.212 | 4.0% | 86.2% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.249 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 0.188 | 13.7% | 87.0% |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 0.296 | 0.300 | 0.004 | 0.193 | 3.0% | 89.4% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.304 | 0.257 | -0.047 | 0.208 | 13.3% | 86.6% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.296 | 0.318 | 0.022 | 0.193 | 7.7% | 83.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 0.189 | 15.5% | 78.4% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.270 | 0.266 | -0.004 | 0.25 | 10.3% | 87.1% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.280 | 0.400 | 0.12 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.276 | 0.268 | -0.008 | 0.211 | 9.2% | 84.4% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.282 | 0.259 | -0.023 | 0.179 | 7.0% | 88.5% |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.302 | 0.316 | 0.014 | 0.199 | 8.2% | 86.2% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.291 | |||||
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.311 | 0.262 | -0.049 | 0.169 | 4.8% | 90.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.307 | 0.289 | -0.018 | 0.22 | 3.3% | 88.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 0.227 | 0.0% | 93.3% |
Chase Anderson doesn’t have any BABIP suppression indicators or history, but it doesn’t appear to be affecting his ERA and estimators too much because his HR rate is a bit high with a below average LOB%. His BABIP over the last month has been .183.
Max Scherzer has an exceptional batted ball profile and although he has a .296 career BABIP and it had even been an issue for him prior to 2013, he’s been below .270 in three of the last four seasons now. Of course, the high HR rate (16.5 HR/FB) keeps him from having too big a gap from his estimators now. If I’m okay with anyone having an 83.3 LOB%, it’s going to be a guy who strikes out 30% of the batters he faces.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Mike Bolsinger (4) takes an above average ability to miss bats against the top strikeout rate in the majors. The contact is a major concern against an offense with some power, but that’s why the cost is low. If you’re concerned about him likely just lasting five innings, look no further than this matchup last night to see what a pitcher can accomplish against the Brewers in five innings. Not that we should expect that, but anything close would pay of his price by a wide margin. He drops just below Scherzer and Matz on DraftKings, but I don’t believe you’d have much of a choice other than to use him in your secondary spot there unless your planning on punting more than half your offense.
Max Scherzer (1) against the Padres in Petco. Yeah, I’ll pay $14K for him on DraftKings and even call him the top value there, though it’s close with the next two guys.
Value Tier Two
Steven Matz (3) has dominated contact with a nearly elite 19.5 K-BB% this season. He should be able to dominate an offense that has dominated itself on contact this season, especially against LHP. I have him nearly interchangeable with Scherzer for $3K less on DraftKings, but a bit behind he and Bolsinger for $10.1K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Three
Jon Lester (2) is on fire and faces one of the coldest offenses in baseball, but it’s a dangerous offense vs LHP and he costs more than he ever has. There’s some manner of discomfort paying $13K for Lester on DraftKings. He’s clearly my fourth in line on either site though.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chase Anderson is far behind the other pitchers listed here and I’d have real issues rostering him for more than $8K on DraftKings, which is a shame because we’re probably looking for lower priced complements on two pitcher sites, but his cost on FanDuel isn’t too bad for a guy who might be able to give you five or six decent innings here. Although, I’d probably be more hesitant to use him on one pitcher sites, which questions why he’s even here.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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