Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, August 13th
It seems the late afternoon Saturday slates are a thing of the past at this point in the season as we cover 11 games on the night slate for the third consecutive weekend. There looks to be a little of everything on this board, which is our favorite kind. We have two absolute studs, several young arms with some potential and a little bit in the middle too for two pitcher sites.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.6 | 4.35 | 5.44 | 0.94 | 1 | 4.37 | 7.46 | CHW | 86 | 94 | 83 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | -8.8 | 4.73 | 5.22 | 1.65 | 1.07 | 4.52 | 4.29 | BOS | 121 | 114 | 83 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3.2 | 4.04 | 6.13 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 4.33 | 4.86 | ARI | 96 | 87 | 118 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 5.2 | 3.63 | 6.55 | 1.54 | 1.07 | 3.52 | 3.92 | DET | 96 | 101 | 77 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -0.1 | 4.75 | 5.84 | 0.73 | 1.05 | 4.78 | 4.85 | MIL | 94 | 87 | 116 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 5.6 | 4.47 | 5.48 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 4.42 | 5.04 | MIN | 96 | 98 | 99 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -5.4 | 3.72 | 6.17 | 1.35 | 0.95 | 3.97 | 3.54 | OAK | 83 | 89 | 62 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -2.3 | 3.11 | 6.38 | 1.4 | 0.87 | 2.87 | 3.91 | SDG | 87 | 84 | 91 |
| James Shields | CHW | 2.5 | 4.16 | 6.03 | 1.24 | 1 | 4.32 | 7.21 | FLA | 88 | 95 | 86 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | -5.2 | 4.73 | 5.43 | 2.15 | 0.87 | 4.77 | 5.16 | NYM | 98 | 91 | 58 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -2 | 3.89 | 6.1 | 1.15 | 1.02 | 3.58 | 4.14 | COL | 81 | 93 | 112 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -10.1 | 4.44 | 5.66 | 1.86 | 0.95 | 4.21 | 4.37 | SEA | 102 | 109 | 102 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -4.1 | 3.72 | 5.84 | 1.14 | 0.89 | 4.03 | 4.11 | SFO | 110 | 99 | 84 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 4.5 | 3.06 | 6.83 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 2.94 | 4.51 | BAL | 96 | 83 | 92 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -6.9 | 4.52 | 4.83 | 0.76 | 1.07 | 5.12 | 4.28 | TEX | 104 | 99 | 129 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.7 | 3.83 | 5.89 | 0.96 | 1.03 | 4.59 | 5.21 | CLE | 128 | 107 | 132 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.55 | 1 | 1.03 | 5.96 | 7.02 | ANA | 98 | 100 | 56 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS | 5.2 | 4.12 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 7.26 | ATL | 80 | 82 | 117 |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | -0.2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 1.02 | 1.85 | 4.1 | WAS | 94 | 95 | 76 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.6 | 3.62 | 6.18 | 2.16 | 1.02 | 3.44 | 4.31 | PHI | 67 | 71 | 105 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -4 | 3.94 | 5.49 | 1.68 | 1.03 | 3.96 | 2.65 | KAN | 77 | 86 | 81 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.9 | 4.17 | 5.85 | 1.66 | 1.05 | 3.92 | 4.15 | CIN | 80 | 86 | 87 |
Jacob deGrom struck out three Tigers in his last start, only the second time he’d struck out less than six in 14 starts. His 18.3 K-BB% is just above his rookie season, while his estimators are still up a bit, but most of his batted ball and contact rates are in line with that strong season. He’s gone at least six innings in at least 11 of his last 13 starts. If we’re looking at San Diego’s season totals, they have a 25.2 K% on the road and 24.4 K% vs RHP. They’re still a great matchup in an extremely negative run environment, but a lot more balanced vs RHP now.
Jerad Eickhoff generally pitches well at home with an 18.7 K-BB%, elevated by three points above his overall career rate with a lower 9.7 HR/FB that’s probably not sustainable in that park over the long run. It’s been three starts since he last pitched at home, though mostly against weak offenses in great parks where he performed adequately. He got destroyed for eight runs in Colorado a little over a month ago, but this is an offense with a 23.6 K% and just average offense on the road. They have also been without their top LHB (CarGo) the last couple of days.
Kevin Gausman has consistently struck out either six or seven in seven of his last eight starts with six innings or more five times, most of those starts on the road, where he has not been able to cut down on the HRs and retains a 16.8 HR/FB on the season. The good news is that he’s in one of the top power suppressing parks in baseball, especially for LHBs. The Giants have a 6.8 HR/FB at home and 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP. The bad news is that their plate discipline is exceptional (6.9 K-BB% at home, 7.7 K-BB% vs RHP).
Madison Bumgarner has just average estimators since the break with the strikeout rate down a bit, but actually more in line with his career rate. It was really just one terrible beating at the hands of the Phillies, of all teams, that’s skewing things, as he’s sandwiched that in between domination of the Nationals and Reds. Four of his last five starts have been on the road, but he returns home, where he has a 24.4 K-BB% with an 8.2 HR/FB since last season, to face a powerful offense, but struggle to a 16.3 K-BB% on the road with an 11.6 HR/FB vs LHP. One could argue that this particular matchup in this park might be one of the top park adjusted spots of the night.
Reynaldo Lopez has struck out batters at a league average or better rate at pretty much every stop of the minors with decent control, including a strikeout rate above 30% in 76 AA innings this season. That doesn’t automate into success at the major league level, but it opens your eyes to the possibility before the rest of the baseball watching world sees it. In two starts, he struck out nine Dodgers and then walked five Giants, while only striking out four in San Francisco, which is not a shocking result against that offense. He’s lived a bit more in the air (0.90 GB/FB), hasn’t gotten hit that hard (33.3 Hard%) and gets the Braves tonight. It’s a bit of a tricky situation because they’re a bit more competent since the Kemp trade (38.7 Hard%, 17.9 HR/FB over the last week), but they still have just an 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP.
Rob Whalen was not a prospect at the time the Mets traded him with just a 7.6 K-BB% at high A ball and continued with a 5.7 K-BB% at the same level for the Braves last season. This season, he had a 22.2 K% in AA and 24.7 K% at AAA before his call up after which he’s struck out 12 of 48 batters at the major league level (but also walked five). It’s way too early to get too excited about that, especially with just a 7.9 SwStr% against two struggling offenses in the Brewers and Pirates, but what are the Nationals really without Harper? Though a few of their RHBs have stepped it up against RHP as the season’s gone on, there are really only a few guys worth worrying about.
Tyler Anderson has a 15.1 K-BB% with a 55.3 GB% and 3.9 Hard-Soft% through 68 major league innings that’s allowed him to be successful in Coors. Just imagine what he’ll do to the Phillies on the road! They’re the worst offense both at home (16.3 K-BB%, 23.6 Hard%) and vs LHP (16.4 K-BB%, 27.1 Hard%), but there’s also something interesting going on here. Just like the Padres and Braves, they weren’t content to sit around all season and continue to set records for offensive futility. They now have some big lefty mashing bats in that lineup with Joseph and Rupp (and possibly Altherr). They have a 17.8 HR/FB over the last week and did torch Bumgarner not too long ago. It’s still a good spot for a guy who’s thrived at Coors, but perhaps no longer the best spot ever.
Tyler Duffey strangely struck out eight of 23 Astros, allowing just one run in a home start last time out. It has struck me as odd all season why he had such incredible Home (11.4 K-BB%, 5.39 xFIP, 36.2 Hard%) and Road (15.4 K-BB%, 3.78 FIP, 27.2 Hard%) splits this season. Now that we know he’s at least capable of performing well at home, we might be more willing to take a look at his perfectly average overall 13.3 K-BB% even with a 19.1 HR/FB against a Kansas City offense that never walks, strikes out at an average rate and has no power (9.0 HR/FB) against RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels (.280 – 82.6 – 14.4) continues to be inconsistent from start to start. If you take his numbers since the All-Star break as a whole, he would appear to have had a dominant month, but he’s only struck out more than six once in his last four starts, walking at least three twice. He has only allowed three of his 18 HRs over his last 10 starts though. He can be dominant, but he hasn’t been often enough for the price being charged, at least on DraftKings, while he may be more accurately priced on FanDuel.
Dan Straily (.220 – 76.5% – 10.3) now has a .250 BABIP in 394.1 career innings. While I’d argue that it’s still not a large enough sample to consider sustainable, he does have a career 19.4 LD% and 12.3 IFFB% on a 46.2% fly ball rate. That’s a lot of popups, but his 21.2 LD% this season is actually the highest of his career with an 8.6 IFFB% the lowest of his career, making the miniscule BABIP even more perplexing. I still thought this may be a spot we could consider him in against the Brewers (25.8 K% vs RHP), but then saw his cost on DraftKings ($8.5K), which is above $2K too high for a guy with just a 9.9 K-BB%
Adam Conley (.299 – 78% – 8.2) has walked 10 of his last 47 batters and at least three in four of his last five starts. He’s also struck out just 15 of his last 103.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Hisashi Iwakuma has deceptively looked better over the last month, but his strikeout rate has risen five points while his SwStr% has dropped nearly half a point. He’s also stopped giving up HRs (5.6 HR/FB). He’s in a very nice spot in Oakland tonight, but paying more than $8.5K in a low strikeout spot (18.4% vs RHP) might not be the situation players want to be in with him tonight.
Zach Davies is a perfectly average pitcher at a perfectly adequate price tag in a decent spot. I’d expect him to have some unwarranted ownership tonight against the Reds in a dangerous park because of the shiny 2.23 ERA over the last month. Factors to consider however, are that his strikeout rate has actually dropped over the last month (17.1%) and 11 of his 14 HRs allowed have come at home this season. I’d consider him for less than $7K.
Clay Buchholz has not started a game since July 2nd and has only gone past one inning in two of eight relief appearances. Without even bringing into context the quality of his work out of the bullpen, it’s questionable if we can even get five innings out of him.
Dillon Gee may not actually be the worst pick on the board at the near minimum in Minnesota, but he’s probably not a good one either.
Matt Shoemaker is in tonight’s worst spot against the top home offense in baseball and has just an 11.9 K-BB% on the road that’s half his rate at home. He’s struck out five or fewer in six of his last seven starts, five on the road and hasn’t struck out more than seven in a road start all season.
Jared Cosart
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.3% | 9.4% | Home | 21.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 21.3% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.8% | 12.1% | Road | 19.0% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 11.4% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.8% | Home | 18.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.7% | 7.7% | Home | 25.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.1% | 9.8% | Road | 20.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| Dillon Gee | Royals | L2 Years | 15.9% | 7.3% | Road | 14.4% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.6% | 4.9% | Road | 19.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 2.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 5.4% | Home | 28.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.7% | Road | 19.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 10.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 15.5% | 11.3% | Road | 15.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.7% | Home | 23.9% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.8% | 6.9% | Home | 14.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 4.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.2% | 6.1% | Road | 22.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 8.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.5% | 4.9% | Home | 29.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.1% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.9% | Road | 18.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.3% | Road | 17.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 13.5% | Home | 16.3% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 18.2% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.3% | 13.0% | Home | 36.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 23.8% |
| Rob Whalen | Braves | L2 Years | 25.0% | 10.4% | Road | 30.4% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.4% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 5.4% | Road | 16.4% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.4% | Home | 18.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 2.1% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.1% | Home | 20.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 3.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 7.0% | LH | 22.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.7% | 8.9% | RH | 18.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 22.6% | 7.5% | RH | 23.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 7.7% | LH | 21.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.4% | 10.2% | RH | 25.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 11.8% |
| Twins | Home | 20.1% | 8.0% | RH | 21.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.9% | 6.5% | RH | 18.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.8% |
| Padres | Road | 25.2% | 7.1% | RH | 24.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 7.7% | RH | 18.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.3% |
| Mets | Home | 21.7% | 8.9% | RH | 22.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 4.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.6% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 7.4% | RH | 20.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.3% |
| Giants | Home | 17.1% | 10.2% | RH | 17.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 11.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.3% | 7.0% | LH | 21.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 7.9% | LH | 20.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.8% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.6% | RH | 20.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 16.1% | 7.5% | RH | 15.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.1% | 7.3% | RH | 19.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 9.3% | RH | 19.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.3% | 7.0% | LH | 23.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.2% |
| Royals | Road | 21.8% | 5.8% | RH | 20.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 4.6% |
| Reds | Road | 21.4% | 7.2% | RH | 21.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 2016 | 31.8% | 8.2% | 12.1% | Home | 30.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 16.7% | 26.7% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 38.3% | 13.4% | 22.2% | 2016 | 38.1% | 14.8% | 20.7% | Road | 37.8% | 7.7% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 2016 | 29.5% | 13.6% | 10.0% | Home | 27.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -35.7% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 27.2% | 12.8% | 5.3% | 2016 | 28.8% | 14.4% | 7.2% | Home | 27.1% | 18.4% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.0% | 5.8% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 2016 | 31.7% | 10.3% | 14.4% | Road | 30.6% | 12.0% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 14.3% | 11.1% |
| Dillon Gee | Royals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 2016 | 30.5% | 15.0% | 12.1% | Road | 27.7% | 15.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 15.8% | 12.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 2016 | 31.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | Road | 26.6% | 13.3% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 2016 | 31.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | Home | 25.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 2016 | 34.0% | 15.3% | 19.4% | Road | 32.5% | 12.8% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 23.5% | 38.7% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 25.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 2016 | 31.1% | 9.1% | 3.3% | Road | 31.2% | 27.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 2016 | 31.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | Home | 28.7% | 9.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 2016 | 29.9% | 13.3% | 12.3% | Home | 29.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 20.0% | 13.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.8% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 2016 | 31.1% | 16.8% | 12.2% | Road | 31.3% | 16.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 23.8% | 16.6% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2016 | 32.0% | 10.5% | 13.1% | Home | 27.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 17.6% | 17.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.5% | 16.4% | 14.6% | 2016 | 32.9% | 14.5% | 10.1% | Road | 34.0% | 19.4% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 22.2% | 10.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.2% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 2016 | 30.2% | 9.8% | 13.9% | Road | 29.3% | 12.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 10.5% | 13.3% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.8% | 16.7% | 10.6% | 2016 | 31.8% | 16.7% | 10.6% | Home | 28.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | Nationals | L2 Years | 33.3% | 10.0% | 18.5% | 2016 | 33.3% | 10.0% | 18.5% | Home | 46.7% | 33.3% | 33.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rob Whalen | Braves | L2 Years | 27.6% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 2016 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 0.0% | Road | 20.0% | 50.0% | -26.7% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.9% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 2016 | 28.9% | 11.8% | 3.9% | Road | 22.2% | 15.4% | -7.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 30.3% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 2016 | 32.2% | 19.1% | 16.0% | Home | 32.9% | 16.9% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 18.2% | 15.6% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 2016 | 32.0% | 12.4% | 10.1% | Home | 34.5% | 15.3% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 20.0% | -7.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 29.9% | 10.3% | 11.5% | LH | 30.6% | 12.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 38.7% | 8.3% | 23.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.3% | 12.4% | 16.1% | RH | 34.7% | 13.3% | 16.1% | L7Days | 37.8% | 5.9% | 18.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | RH | 32.5% | 12.7% | 14.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 16.7% | 10.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 32.4% | 13.2% | 13.9% | LH | 33.0% | 12.7% | 14.4% | L7Days | 31.4% | 7.7% | 16.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.6% | 16.5% | 17.0% | RH | 32.7% | 15.3% | 13.2% | L7Days | 36.9% | 21.6% | 18.7% |
| Twins | Home | 32.6% | 11.0% | 15.0% | RH | 31.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 36.2% | 14.5% | 22.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | RH | 29.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| Padres | Road | 32.2% | 15.3% | 14.1% | RH | 30.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.8% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 30.4% | 7.8% | 11.7% |
| Mets | Home | 35.0% | 13.3% | 14.1% | RH | 33.9% | 13.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 11.7% | 13.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.8% | 13.1% | 10.0% | RH | 32.6% | 14.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 30.7% | 22.2% | 13.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 30.6% | 15.5% | 11.8% | RH | 31.1% | 15.1% | 13.5% | L7Days | 25.9% | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| Giants | Home | 26.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | RH | 30.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.7% | 14.2% | 12.8% | LH | 31.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 30.2% | 19.3% | 12.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 30.6% | 13.7% | 11.4% | LH | 31.9% | 15.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 37.1% | 14.9% | 23.3% |
| Indians | Home | 32.0% | 15.1% | 15.9% | RH | 31.6% | 14.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 30.5% | 15.3% | 10.4% |
| Angels | Road | 29.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | RH | 30.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% |
| Braves | Road | 27.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% | RH | 28.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 38.7% | 17.9% | 22.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.0% | 12.9% | 14.2% | RH | 33.4% | 12.7% | 16.4% | L7Days | 35.2% | 9.3% | 18.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.6% | 11.3% | 1.6% | LH | 27.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 35.4% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| Royals | Road | 27.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | RH | 29.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 5.7% | 19.5% |
| Reds | Road | 29.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | RH | 30.4% | 12.3% | 12.3% | L7Days | 30.7% | 10.0% | 11.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.23 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.11 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.89 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 3.67 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 14.9% | 9.4% | 1.59 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 1.78 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 23.4% | 12.6% | 1.86 | 25.9% | 14.6% | 1.77 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.03 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.01 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 17.7% | 9.5% | 1.86 | 14.3% | 9.1% | 1.57 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 18.5% | 8.1% | 2.28 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 3.03 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 23.8% | 10.3% | 2.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 2.14 |
| James Shields | CHW | 15.3% | 9.0% | 1.70 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 1.19 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 14.4% | 6.3% | 2.29 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 2.50 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.13 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 2.14 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.78 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 1.83 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.10 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.24 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.7% | 11.4% | 2.43 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 2.29 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.40 | 25.8% | 10.1% | 2.55 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 21.9% | 13.3% | 1.65 | 17.8% | 12.7% | 1.40 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 17.7% | 9.3% | 1.90 | 13.6% | 8.6% | 1.58 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS | 28.3% | 11.7% | 2.42 | 28.3% | 11.7% | 2.42 |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 25.0% | 7.9% | 3.16 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 3.16 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.03 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 2.02 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 18.6% | 8.3% | 2.24 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.84 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 19.1% | 7.7% | 2.48 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 2.34 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.7 | 4.55 | 0.85 | 4.79 | 1.09 | 4.11 | 0.41 | 4 | 5.33 | 1.33 | 5.67 | 1.67 | 4.91 | 0.91 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 4.8 | 4.5 | -0.3 | 4.26 | -0.54 | 4.51 | -0.29 | 5.19 | 5.19 | 0 | 4.99 | -0.2 | 4.4 | -0.79 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.64 | 5.22 | -0.42 | 5.45 | -0.19 | 5.61 | -0.03 | 3.48 | 5.07 | 1.59 | 5.33 | 1.85 | 2.46 | -1.02 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.89 | 3.98 | 1.09 | 3.89 | 1 | 4.08 | 1.19 | 1.83 | 3.49 | 1.66 | 3.32 | 1.49 | 2.64 | 0.81 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.76 | 4.77 | 1.01 | 5.01 | 1.25 | 4.61 | 0.85 | 1.93 | 4.59 | 2.66 | 4.93 | 3 | 4.23 | 2.3 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 4.54 | 4.45 | -0.09 | 4.77 | 0.23 | 5.14 | 0.6 | 5.55 | 5.01 | -0.54 | 5.32 | -0.23 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.79 | 4.31 | 0.52 | 4.38 | 0.59 | 4.14 | 0.35 | 2.08 | 3.7 | 1.62 | 3.84 | 1.76 | 2.74 | 0.66 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.35 | 3.55 | 1.2 | 3.38 | 1.03 | 3 | 0.65 | 1.62 | 3.67 | 2.05 | 3.61 | 1.99 | 2.41 | 0.79 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.43 | 5.18 | -0.25 | 5.17 | -0.26 | 5.58 | 0.15 | 5.46 | 6.03 | 0.57 | 6.54 | 1.08 | 6.49 | 1.03 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 5.79 | 5.57 | -0.22 | 4.89 | -0.9 | 4.7 | -1.09 | 3.38 | 4.59 | 1.21 | 4.27 | 0.89 | 4.26 | 0.88 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.78 | 4 | 0.22 | 4.04 | 0.26 | 3.86 | 0.08 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 0.02 | 3.9 | 0.18 | 3.31 | -0.41 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.29 | 4.55 | 0.26 | 4.42 | 0.13 | 4.5 | 0.21 | 4.05 | 4.19 | 0.14 | 4 | -0.05 | 4.12 | 0.07 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.02 | 3.81 | -0.21 | 3.81 | -0.21 | 4.38 | 0.36 | 3.64 | 3.96 | 0.32 | 4.07 | 0.43 | 4.75 | 1.11 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.2 | 3.33 | 1.13 | 3.47 | 1.27 | 3.18 | 0.98 | 3.18 | 3.76 | 0.58 | 4.01 | 0.83 | 4.16 | 0.98 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.69 | 4.26 | -0.43 | 4.57 | -0.12 | 4.86 | 0.17 | 2.95 | 3.55 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 1.15 | 5.29 | 2.34 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.07 | 3.83 | -0.24 | 3.95 | -0.12 | 3.52 | -0.55 | 3.03 | 4.19 | 1.16 | 4.55 | 1.52 | 3.24 | 0.21 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 6.97 | 5.39 | -1.58 | 5.29 | -1.68 | 5.89 | -1.08 | 4.15 | 7.02 | 2.87 | 6.81 | 2.66 | 7.52 | 3.37 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS | 9.35 | 4.1 | -5.25 | 4.12 | -5.23 | 3.71 | -5.64 | 9.35 | 4.12 | -5.23 | 4.12 | -5.23 | 3.71 | -5.64 |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 5.73 | 4.1 | -1.63 | 4.51 | -1.22 | 5.22 | -0.51 | 5.73 | 4.1 | -1.63 | 4.51 | -1.22 | 5.22 | -0.51 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 3.04 | 3.62 | 0.58 | 3.4 | 0.36 | 3.31 | 0.27 | 3.06 | 4.13 | 1.07 | 3.95 | 0.89 | 3.32 | 0.26 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 5.93 | 3.99 | -1.94 | 3.83 | -2.1 | 4.61 | -1.32 | 8.59 | 4.29 | -4.3 | 3.92 | -4.67 | 4.86 | -3.73 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 3.58 | 4.11 | 0.53 | 3.99 | 0.41 | 3.95 | 0.37 | 2.23 | 4.07 | 1.84 | 3.88 | 1.65 | 3.1 | 0.87 |
Jacob deGrom is very much in line with his rookie season except for two areas. His 82.4 LOB% is a career high and his 9.3 HR/FB is three points higher and almost exactly in line with last season. It would actually seem too low this season, but he’s established an 8.4 HR/FB through 457.2 career innings so far. It’s not a definitive sample size yet, but it makes you think maybe.
Matt Bumgarner has the second lowest BABIP of his career .259, but at less than 30 points below his career rate and defense with a fine profile, that won’t be debated. His career high 82.8 LOB% is a bit much.
Tyler Duffey has a .340 BABIP, 63.9 LOB% and 19.1 HR/FB. He has a high line drive rate and a terrible defense that tried to stick Miguel Sano in the OF this season. At home, he has a .347 BABIP (despite a lower 22.2 LD%), 58.7 LOB% and 23.1 HR/FB.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.303 | 0.299 | -0.004 | 0.207 | 8.9% | 87.9% |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.319 | 0.308 | -0.011 | 0.236 | 3.7% | 88.1% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.302 | 0.265 | -0.037 | 0.163 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.290 | 0.280 | -0.01 | 0.2 | 4.8% | 84.6% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.288 | 0.220 | -0.068 | 0.212 | 8.6% | 86.7% |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 0.293 | 0.323 | 0.03 | 0.2 | 9.0% | 87.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.292 | 0.300 | 0.008 | 0.209 | 11.2% | 91.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.305 | 0.286 | -0.019 | 0.217 | 8.3% | 85.4% |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.295 | 0.301 | 0.006 | 0.212 | 7.6% | 89.5% |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 0.298 | 0.326 | 0.028 | 0.261 | 0.0% | 88.6% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.306 | 0.290 | -0.016 | 0.203 | 13.5% | 88.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.303 | 0.300 | -0.003 | 0.193 | 6.7% | 90.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.297 | 0.310 | 0.013 | 0.221 | 14.4% | 87.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.284 | 0.259 | -0.025 | 0.209 | 10.5% | 83.6% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.306 | 0.280 | -0.026 | 0.177 | 20.3% | 85.2% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.304 | 0.316 | 0.012 | 0.238 | 12.4% | 84.7% |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.285 | 0.323 | 0.038 | 0.262 | 16.7% | 84.6% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS | 0.287 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.269 | 20.0% | 76.4% |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 0.287 | 0.259 | -0.028 | 0.207 | 0.0% | 88.9% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.314 | 0.307 | -0.007 | 0.191 | 7.8% | 87.1% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.318 | 0.340 | 0.022 | 0.238 | 10.6% | 89.1% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.303 | 0.284 | -0.019 | 0.201 | 7.1% | 87.5% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Reynaldo Lopez is probably going to be in a lot of DraftKings lineups featuring deGrom or Bumgarner and rightfully so for $4.2K. I’d even consider him at a relatively low price a couple of grand higher on FanDuel. He has some upside, shown in his first major league start, with a relatively strong minor league track record despite the lack of prospect faire. While we should be more careful assuming the Braves are a cake walk at this point, it’s still not close to an unfavorable spot and he doesn’t even have to do much at a minimum cost.
Value Tier Two
Rob Whalen is another lightly regarded young pitcher it’s way too early to get excited about, but has shown some decent stuff at the upper levels of the minors and hasn’t embarrassed himself in two major league starts in decent spots. The Nationals without Harper facing a potentially competent RHP at a low price is absolutely a matchup players have to give some thought to.
Tyler Anderson (3) got his price spike on DraftKings as soon as he left Coors. While I’d drop him a tier, I’d probably still be as willing to pay for him as deGrom or Bumganer on a projected point per dollar basis here (still $3K cheaper). The Phillies are better, but he’s dominated contact, walked relatively few, and struck out batters at a league average rate. He might be a slightly better version of this year’s Dallas Keuchel and would probably be my top play for just $6.4K on FanDuel.
Tyler Duffey has made me look really dumb several times this year, mostly at home, but he also almost won me a GPP once or twice. He at least proved that he can pitch well at home even if it was against a struggling highly strikeout prone offense at the time. He’s facing another poor, but also power deficient offense tonight at a low price.
Value Tier Three
Jacob deGrom (1t) is pitching well, if not as well as his estimators, and is in a good spot against the Padres, if not as great a spot as when they were almost entirely right-handed, but it’s a matchup where you’d expect him to be successful in a negative run environment. The elevated price tag does make it a little tougher though.
Madison Bumgarner (1t) is flying a high strand rate that makes his ERA look a bit better than his estimators and he’s about $500 above deGrom with the highest price tag of the night. If you took the Orioles, however, and stuck them in their worst possible spot, it would be in a big park against a premier LHP and that’s exactly what this is.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jerad Eickhoff pitches well at home against an offense that struggles on the road and may be without their best bat LHB. He’s priced pretty much what you’d expect him to be on FanDuel, but bump him up a tier at just $6.9K on DraftKings.
Kevin Gausman shows up at an average price in a great park, but facing an offense that might pull down his above average K%. He’s had trouble with the long ball in basically any park he’s pitched in this year, allowing HRs in each of his last nine road starts.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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