Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, August 17th
Ten games on Thursday, evenly split with five both day and night (at least when this was originally conceived, before the rain out in Minnesota Wednesday night). All pitchers are listed (all originally scheduled pitchers), but we’re covering the night slate in the notes. It’s pretty simple to divide the usables from undesirables tonight with about half the board in the former category. It’s a fairly strong board for such a small slate.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.2 | 3.51 | 5.92 | 51.8% | 0.93 | 3.65 | 3.54 | SFO | 79 | 81 | 69 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -1.5 | 4.4 | 5.76 | 45.6% | 0.97 | 4.35 | 8.85 | PIT | 90 | 85 | 65 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -0.5 | 3.53 | 6.15 | 45.1% | 1.03 | 3.69 | 3.36 | TOR | 92 | 90 | 82 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | -1.9 | 4.73 | 5.1 | 47.1% | 1.03 | 4.24 | 4.73 | TAM | 96 | 102 | 61 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 1 | 5.06 | 5.73 | 39.0% | 0.91 | 5.37 | 3.16 | SDG | 90 | 88 | 95 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -2.4 | 3.78 | 5.6 | 50.9% | 0.97 | 3.45 | 3.34 | STL | 93 | 99 | 119 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | -3.9 | 4.85 | 5.39 | 45.0% | 1.39 | 4.9 | 4.38 | ATL | 89 | 85 | 69 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -3 | 3.9 | 6.39 | 43.7% | 0.93 | 3.67 | 5.01 | PHI | 76 | 86 | 59 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.4 | 4.45 | 5.52 | 49.5% | 0.91 | 4.14 | 5.91 | WAS | 100 | 105 | 83 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.2 | 3.6 | 6.18 | 47.2% | 0.96 | 3.43 | 3.28 | CIN | 93 | 91 | 123 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -0.2 | 4.75 | 5.07 | 38.9% | 1.04 | 4.43 | 5.33 | CLE | 101 | 103 | 100 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.4 | 3.64 | 5.63 | 49.3% | 0.91 | 3.41 | 3.47 | NYM | 90 | 100 | 103 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | -1.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 33.3% | 1.39 | 6.03 | 5.56 | COL | 90 | 80 | 105 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.3 | 4.5 | 4.84 | 39.0% | 1.04 | 4.33 | 2.89 | MIN | 99 | 97 | 117 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -5.5 | 4.26 | 5.62 | 41.4% | 0.94 | 3.99 | 6.08 | ARI | 81 | 100 | 91 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.4 | 4.13 | 5.54 | 50.3% | 0.94 | 4.02 | 2.84 | HOU | 125 | 124 | 103 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | -0.1 | 4.58 | 5.01 | 38.9% | 1.11 | 4.36 | 5.03 | TEX | 110 | 100 | 155 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 7.3 | 4.32 | 5.36 | 46.4% | 0.96 | 3.92 | 3.11 | CHC | 103 | 95 | 122 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -1.6 | 3.85 | 5.72 | 49.8% | 0.91 | 3.37 | 4.67 | NYY | 99 | 85 | 93 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 1.8 | 4.28 | 5.48 | 49.8% | 1.11 | 5.46 | 7.56 | CHW | 91 | 87 | 107 |
Let’s discuss the shenanigans in Minnesota for a moment. The pitchers originally scheduled for this afternoon’s game were Mike Clevinger and Jose Berrios. Last night’s game was rained out and not postponed until several hours after first pitch was scheduled. It is now a double-header today with yesterday’s pitchers scheduled for the first game. Both Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Gibson can be found in “yesterday’s article”:https://rotogrinders.com/articles/advanced-stats-pitching-wednesday-august-16th-2022962 of course. That’s one problem solved with Clevinger and Berrios still listed for the evening affair.
Now, Thursday morning, Ryan Merritt (five major league innings this year) and Aaron Slegers (major league debut) are listed on MLB.com, both teams changing their listed pitchers over-night. The other thing is that the makeup game is not even listed on the night slate for either site so it’s a situation not to be concerned about in the end.
Aaron Nola has gone at least seven innings in seven of his last 10 starts, over which he has a 21.9 K-BB%, 50% ground ball rate and 7.6 Hard-Soft%, all either equal to or slight improvements upon his season numbers. He’s developing into one of the 15 to 20 true number one guys in the league. Not every team gets one. Either side of this affair in San Francisco could be considered the top matchup on the board. The Giants hit for absolutely no power in that park (6.0 HR/FB), but they could suppress his strikeout rate slightly.
Jameson Taillon has rebounded strongly (12.1 IP – 4 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 15 K – 51 BF) from two awful starts (6.2 IP – 17 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 4 K – 44 BF), although he’s been below a 50% ground ball rate in four straight starts now and the only time he’s been above a 30% hard hit rate over these four starts was in his most recent effort. He did have a 9.9 SwStr% two starts back, but hasn’t cracked double digits over this span either. So, while there’s some concern, he’s still handling contact fairly well and the increase in fly balls should not be an issue in and of itself in that park.
Jeff Samardzija has seen a significant drop in his strikeout rate over the last month, but still checks in at eighth among qualified pitchers with a 21.2 K-BB% this season, though only one of the 12 pitchers above 20% with an ERA above four. In fact, his ERA nearly a full run (0.9) above the next highest ERA despite pitching in the best parks in the league. Contact has not been terrible with a 29.5 Hard%. He has one of the top matchups tonight, hosting the Phillies (15.5 K-BB% vs RHP, 4.6 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Luis Severino got destroyed by the Red Sox in his last start in really the only blemish on his record since the break. He had not allowed more than one ER in any of his previous five starts, pitching into the seventh inning in four of them with 26 strikeouts in the three starts leading up to his last one. His 21.7 K-BB% is seventh among qualifiers. His 50.9 GB% is highest among those above 20%, though his 87.4 mph aEV is not ideal. He looks to bounce back against the cross town rivals with a significant park upgrade. The Mets have traded away a good portion of the middle of the lineup and were down a couple more bats due to injury last night. They have a 24.2 HR/FB over the last week, but also a 19.8 K-BB%.
Steven Matz followed up a seven strikeout performance (6.9 SwStr%) with just one (8.1 SwStr%) last time out, but allowed just two runs through 5.2 innings in Philadelphia. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last seven starts, but has an above average ground ball rate in four straight. However, his 87.6 mph aEV and 37.9% 95+ mph EV are highest on the slate. Why the hell are we considering him today then? Although he’s allowed at least four ERs in each of his four home starts, he has a 17.2 K-BB% in those starts (17.0 K-BB% at home since last year) and the Yankees are pretty terrible against LHP (23.6 K%, 7.2 Hard-Soft%). It’s really one of the top matchups outside of San Francisco tonight when you consider the park and DH loss tonight. The Yankees are also one of the worst offenses in the majors vs ground ball pitchers (78 sOPS+).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Edwin Jackson (.262 – 72.7% – 17.3) has a 31.8% unearned run rate, allowing a board high 10.7% Barrels/BBE, though his 4.4 Hard-Soft% isn’t terrible and his 10.7 K-BB% is not too far below league average.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Reynaldo Lopez struck out six of 26 Royals in his White Sox debut, allowing two runs through six innings and is really the only difficult decision today. The young pitcher comes with some prospect shine (#28 in the majors by Fangraphs this year) and a 20.9 K% for the Nationals in 44 innings last year. The Rangers will strike out a bit too (23.7% vs RHP), but this is a tough park for a fly ball pitcher, the worst spot on the board. He hasn’t had a ground ball rate above 42% since graduating from A ball.
Jhoulys Chacin has managed contact well in a friendly park and gets a bit of a bump with Harper absent from this lineup, which has taken a hit overall since his injury, but he doesn’t miss enough bats. He’s been below 6% in each of his last three starts.
Adam Wainwright has struck out just seven of 91 batters since the break (10 walks), though he does have a .214 BABIP and 80.7 LOB% over that span despite a 25% line drive rate. His velocity dropped over five miles per hour in his last start.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.0% | 6.6% | Road | 22.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.5% | Road | 17.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 2.8% | 22.2% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.0% | 8.1% | Road | 25.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 8.3% |
| Chris Rowley | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 13.6% | 4.6% | Home | 13.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 4.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.6% | 10.0% | Road | 15.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 4.4% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.6% | Home | 20.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.9% | 9.2% | Home | 16.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.5% | Home | 21.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.9% | Home | 20.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 6.6% | Home | 25.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 5.6% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.3% | Home | 21.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.1% | 7.6% | Road | 25.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 6.4% |
| Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 11.7% | 3.9% | Road | 11.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.6% | 12.3% | Road | 25.3% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 6.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.4% | Home | 21.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.5% | Road | 19.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 5.5% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.2% | 11.1% | Road | 25.0% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 12.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.2% | 7.0% | Road | 19.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 5.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.8% | Home | 23.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.5% | 10.6% | Home | 14.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 19.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 19.0% | 7.1% | RH | 19.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.0% | 8.9% | RH | 18.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.3% | 8.8% | RH | 20.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.0% |
| Rays | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | RH | 25.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.0% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 8.5% | RH | 25.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.8% | 8.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.1% |
| Braves | Road | 19.4% | 7.6% | RH | 19.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.5% | RH | 23.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 8.5% | RH | 20.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 8.4% | LH | 21.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.4% | 14.5% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.9% |
| Mets | Home | 20.3% | 8.3% | RH | 19.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.7% | 6.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 8.1% | RH | 22.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 10.0% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.6% | RH | 23.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.0% |
| Astros | Home | 16.6% | 7.8% | LH | 17.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.0% | 9.4% | RH | 23.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 12.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.8% | 10.1% | RH | 22.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 10.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 9.1% | LH | 23.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.0% | 5.8% | RH | 22.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 4.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | Road | 30.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 7.7% | 14.3% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 2017 | 30.2% | 12.9% | 10.0% | Road | 32.2% | 18.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 36.0% | 13.7% | 19.6% | 2017 | 38.6% | 11.9% | 23.7% | Road | 34.1% | 18.0% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 9.1% | 32.2% |
| Chris Rowley | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 2017 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% | Home | 16.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.2% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 2017 | 32.1% | 17.3% | 4.4% | Road | 39.7% | 17.7% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 15.4% | 6.7% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 2017 | 29.4% | 11.0% | 5.3% | Home | 31.7% | 11.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.3% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 2017 | 33.0% | 9.6% | 13.7% | Home | 37.0% | 11.3% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 20.0% | 8.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.5% | 14.5% | 8.7% | Home | 30.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 17.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 2017 | 28.8% | 13.8% | 7.9% | Home | 27.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 14.3% | 15.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.4% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 2017 | 26.4% | 14.8% | 5.9% | Home | 26.5% | 12.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2017 | 27.4% | 10.4% | 6.6% | Home | 27.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 23.1% | 32.2% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.3% | 8.8% | 2017 | 29.5% | 13.3% | 11.1% | Road | 27.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 27.3% | 22.6% |
| Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 34.4% | 17.4% | 18.0% | 2017 | 34.4% | 17.4% | 18.0% | Road | 33.3% | 14.3% | 23.8% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 33.6% | 13.2% | 17.1% | 2017 | 35.5% | 13.3% | 20.2% | Road | 32.6% | 11.0% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 25.0% | 38.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.8% | 13.4% | 2017 | 30.7% | 20.6% | 10.8% | Home | 34.0% | 15.9% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 26.7% | 17.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.4% | 16.3% | 19.3% | 2017 | 33.0% | 17.1% | 15.7% | Road | 34.1% | 21.7% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 2017 | 25.0% | 22.2% | 6.2% | Road | 25.0% | 3.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 22.2% | 6.2% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 28.7% | 15.3% | 8.3% | 2017 | 32.2% | 18.0% | 11.6% | Road | 29.3% | 18.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 58.3% | 25.0% | 58.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 30.4% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 2017 | 33.6% | 16.4% | 11.6% | Home | 36.6% | 20.8% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 2017 | 34.5% | 11.9% | 22.1% | Home | 39.5% | 9.1% | 25.9% | L14 Days | 52.9% | 0.0% | 41.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | RH | 28.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | RH | 29.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 31.5% | 6.5% | 13.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.5% | 14.3% | 9.7% | RH | 30.3% | 14.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 28.9% | 12.7% | 10.2% |
| Rays | Road | 32.3% | 16.3% | 12.2% | RH | 34.8% | 16.8% | 16.6% | L7Days | 30.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% |
| Padres | Home | 29.3% | 12.7% | 7.1% | RH | 29.8% | 14.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 33.9% | 16.4% | 12.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.4% | 12.9% | 13.8% | RH | 31.3% | 12.7% | 12.5% | L7Days | 33.8% | 8.0% | 17.9% |
| Braves | Road | 31.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | RH | 30.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 8.5% | 12.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | RH | 30.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.9% | 4.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.2% | 15.5% | 12.9% | RH | 31.8% | 15.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 33.6% | 14.5% | 17.5% |
| Reds | Road | 30.3% | 14.0% | 10.6% | LH | 29.2% | 15.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 29.7% | 21.2% | 7.5% |
| Indians | Road | 34.9% | 12.2% | 18.6% | RH | 33.9% | 12.2% | 17.0% | L7Days | 36.7% | 13.9% | 22.7% |
| Mets | Home | 33.8% | 11.6% | 14.8% | RH | 34.8% | 13.6% | 17.4% | L7Days | 35.3% | 24.2% | 17.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.8% | 16.9% | 13.9% | RH | 30.3% | 13.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 17.8% | 11.7% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 11.9% | 16.8% | RH | 33.2% | 12.6% | 16.6% | L7Days | 36.2% | 14.6% | 24.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.9% | 13.8% | 11.0% | RH | 35.1% | 14.9% | 18.0% | L7Days | 31.5% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| Astros | Home | 31.0% | 15.7% | 13.6% | LH | 29.7% | 14.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 33.3% | 9.8% | 19.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.7% | 18.0% | 19.0% | RH | 34.7% | 18.0% | 16.2% | L7Days | 38.3% | 22.9% | 26.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.8% | 16.9% | 14.5% | RH | 31.2% | 15.1% | 13.4% | L7Days | 32.5% | 18.4% | 15.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.0% | 11.9% | 12.2% | LH | 28.7% | 11.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.7% | 8.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.4% | 14.2% | 13.5% | RH | 30.6% | 13.5% | 11.5% | L7Days | 33.5% | 20.4% | 9.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.43 | 28.7% | 11.8% | 2.43 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.45 | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.15 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.5% | 13.5% | 2.19 | 32.5% | 14.7% | 2.21 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | 13.6% | 14.7% | 0.93 | 13.6% | 14.7% | 0.93 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 18.0% | 10.3% | 1.75 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 1.93 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 22.4% | 8.3% | 2.70 | 22.7% | 8.1% | 2.80 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.36 | 16.1% | 6.8% | 2.37 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 24.8% | 10.3% | 2.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 2.17 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.4% | 8.0% | 2.43 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 2.71 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.26 | 29.6% | 12.2% | 2.43 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.27 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 2.06 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.1% | 12.1% | 2.32 | 28.1% | 12.4% | 2.27 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | 11.7% | 8.8% | 1.33 | 11.7% | 8.8% | 1.33 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 26.8% | 13.3% | 2.02 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 1.95 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 22.5% | 9.1% | 2.47 | 20.8% | 6.7% | 3.10 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 21.8% | 11.7% | 1.86 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 1.65 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 24.0% | 9.8% | 2.45 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 2.45 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.08 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.27 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.32 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 16.7% | 6.4% | 2.61 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 2.88 |
Jameson Taillon is pushing the boundaries with an above average K% and below average SwStr%. With the exact same SwStr% last year, his K% was two points lower.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.02 | 3.69 | 0.67 | 3.51 | 0.49 | 3.14 | 0.12 | 2.81 | -0.21 | 1.64 | 3.26 | 1.62 | 3.24 | 1.6 | 2.41 | 0.77 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.87 | 4.56 | -0.31 | 4.25 | -0.62 | 4.16 | -0.71 | 5.54 | 0.67 | 3.38 | 6.15 | 2.77 | 5.53 | 2.15 | 5.85 | 2.47 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.84 | 3.44 | -0.4 | 3.38 | -0.46 | 3.17 | -0.67 | 2.70 | -1.14 | 3.56 | 2.95 | -0.61 | 3.04 | -0.52 | 3.36 | -0.2 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | 1.69 | 4.72 | 3.03 | 4.24 | 2.55 | 2.57 | 0.88 | 6.10 | 4.41 | 1.69 | 4.73 | 3.04 | 4.24 | 2.55 | 2.57 | 0.88 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 3.86 | 4.79 | 0.93 | 5.18 | 1.32 | 5.88 | 2.02 | 5.89 | 2.03 | 3.3 | 4.31 | 1.01 | 4.66 | 1.36 | 5.2 | 1.9 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 4.5 | 3.96 | -0.54 | 3.64 | -0.86 | 3.36 | -1.14 | 4.16 | -0.34 | 8.51 | 3.95 | -4.56 | 3.88 | -4.63 | 3.5 | -5.01 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 5.15 | 4.69 | -0.46 | 4.81 | -0.34 | 4.18 | -0.97 | 5.47 | 0.32 | 7.2 | 5.11 | -2.09 | 4.91 | -2.29 | 4.97 | -2.23 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.74 | 3.48 | -1.26 | 3.36 | -1.38 | 3.46 | -1.28 | 3.35 | -1.39 | 4.26 | 4.54 | 0.28 | 4.49 | 0.23 | 3.23 | -1.03 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.06 | 4.56 | 0.5 | 4.36 | 0.3 | 4.38 | 0.32 | 4.48 | 0.42 | 3.07 | 5.26 | 2.19 | 4.8 | 1.73 | 3.99 | 0.92 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.99 | 3.76 | -0.23 | 3.56 | -0.43 | 3.69 | -0.3 | 3.20 | -0.79 | 3.26 | 3.15 | -0.11 | 3.1 | -0.16 | 2.93 | -0.33 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 4.27 | 4.37 | 0.1 | 4.67 | 0.4 | 4.17 | -0.1 | 4.22 | -0.05 | 5.88 | 5.08 | -0.8 | 5.32 | -0.56 | 4.63 | -1.25 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.32 | 3.32 | 0 | 3.12 | -0.2 | 3.08 | -0.24 | 3.03 | -0.29 | 3 | 3.41 | 0.41 | 3.16 | 0.16 | 3.03 | 0.03 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | 5.71 | 5.29 | -0.42 | 5.67 | -0.04 | 6.31 | 0.6 | 5.71 | 5.3 | -0.41 | 5.67 | -0.04 | 6.31 | 0.6 | ||
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.65 | 4.32 | 0.67 | 4.15 | 0.5 | 4.11 | 0.46 | 3.67 | 0.02 | 5.48 | 4.24 | -1.24 | 4.04 | -1.44 | 4.12 | -1.36 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.36 | 4.41 | 0.05 | 4.56 | 0.2 | 5.52 | 1.16 | 5.26 | 0.90 | 6.59 | 5.01 | -1.58 | 5.71 | -0.88 | 6.76 | 0.17 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.52 | 4 | -0.52 | 3.8 | -0.72 | 4.21 | -0.31 | 5.84 | 1.32 | 4.03 | 3.87 | -0.16 | 3.74 | -0.29 | 4.2 | 0.17 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 3 | 5.03 | 2.03 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 6.97 | 3.97 | 7.17 | 4.17 | 3 | 5.03 | 2.03 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 6.97 | 3.97 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 4.43 | 4.39 | -0.04 | 4.04 | -0.39 | 4.5 | 0.07 | 5.03 | 0.60 | 14.4 | 4.84 | -9.56 | 5.14 | -9.26 | 9.73 | -4.67 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 5.54 | 4.68 | -0.86 | 4.53 | -1.01 | 4.9 | -0.64 | 5.77 | 0.23 | 7.13 | 4.16 | -2.97 | 3.89 | -3.24 | 4.18 | -2.95 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 7.11 | 5.85 | -1.26 | 6.02 | -1.09 | 5.77 | -1.34 | 5.47 | -1.64 | 10.66 | 6.38 | -4.28 | 6.64 | -4.02 | 7 | -3.66 |
Jameson Taillon has a .361 BABIP with both a high line drive rate and high IFFB% without a lot of swings and misses at strikes. It’s not an ideal BABIP profile, but contact authority hasn’t been much of an issue and line drive rate may tell you what has happened, but not necessarily what will happen.
Jeff Samardzija has a .324 BABIP with a pretty terrible defense and high line drive rate, but not an otherwise terrible contact profile. He has stranded just 65.5% of runners.
Steven Matz has a .320 BABIP that is the same as his horrid defense, which looks a bit better with Rosario’s call up, but they did have a catcher paying third base last night…then second base…then third base…then second base…then third base (see the box score).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.297 | 0.291 | -0.006 | 49.8% | 0.176 | 7.6% | 85.1% | 85.8 | 4.30% | 29.00% | 324 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.294 | 0.321 | 0.027 | 48.1% | 0.247 | 10.9% | 89.9% | 86 | 4.50% | 34.00% | 377 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.284 | 0.326 | 0.042 | 41.0% | 0.223 | 9.9% | 81.2% | 88.8 | 6.00% | 39.30% | 417 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | 0.307 | 0.278 | -0.029 | 47.1% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 88.9% | ||||
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.293 | 0.262 | -0.031 | 39.8% | 0.12 | 15.4% | 85.3% | 85.7 | 10.70% | 29.50% | 112 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.308 | 0.361 | 0.053 | 49.3% | 0.243 | 11.0% | 90.0% | 85.2 | 5.30% | 30.90% | 282 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 43.0% | 0.177 | 7.7% | 90.0% | 87 | 6.70% | 35.60% | 270 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.317 | 0.324 | 0.007 | 43.2% | 0.231 | 9.2% | 84.6% | 86.4 | 5.50% | 31.50% | 457 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.272 | -0.035 | 51.1% | 0.182 | 14.6% | 90.1% | 85.8 | 6.10% | 28.00% | 407 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.283 | 0.303 | 0.02 | 47.6% | 0.202 | 6.3% | 83.4% | 85.2 | 5.40% | 27.90% | 405 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.279 | -0.019 | 39.4% | 0.201 | 10.4% | 85.6% | 85.5 | 5.20% | 28.50% | 288 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0 | 50.9% | 0.189 | 10.6% | 84.3% | 87.4 | 6.30% | 34.70% | 380 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | 0.292 | 0.316 | 0.024 | 33.3% | 0.263 | 0.0% | 85.6% | ||||
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.275 | -0.028 | 39.6% | 0.233 | 10.7% | 78.9% | 88.3 | 7.40% | 35.50% | 203 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.024 | 43.0% | 0.19 | 7.4% | 85.7% | 86.2 | 8.00% | 33.10% | 363 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.294 | 0.351 | 0.057 | 49.1% | 0.209 | 9.3% | 87.1% | 88.2 | 7.40% | 36.10% | 435 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.143 | -0.145 | 18.8% | 0.25 | 11.1% | 79.4% | ||||
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.293 | 0.305 | 0.012 | 42.9% | 0.282 | 10.1% | 87.0% | 83.9 | 6.50% | 26.80% | 321 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0 | 47.6% | 0.205 | 13.4% | 88.2% | 87.6 | 7.00% | 37.90% | 214 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.289 | 0.266 | -0.023 | 41.4% | 0.207 | 7.1% | 91.4% | 85.6 | 6.20% | 29.20% | 113 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Just two tiers tonight on a five game slate.
Value Tier One
Aaron Nola (1) has been nearly dominant for two month stretch now (10 starts), not allowing more than two ERs in any start of that span. Things are unlikely to change during a trip to San Francisco even if his strikeout total is reduced by one or two. He’s struck out at least seven in nine of his last 10.
Luis Severino (2) looks to bounce back from an absolute beating his last time out, but there’s nothing in his previous profile to suggest there are larger concerns here. The Mets still have a competent top four and some of the new kids have some prospect shine, but this is a reduced lineup in hit’s current state.
Jeff Samardzija (3) has lost about a touchdown off his K% over the last month, but is in a great spot tonight for less than $10K and has estimators well below his ERA for the season.
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon has some cautionary flags in his recent profile, but should still be passable in a favorable park in a neutral park.
Steven Matz does not inspire much confidence based on his own results this year. It’s easy for anyone watching to see that he has problems and is not pitching up to the talent level. However, he’s in a sneaky strong spot at home tonight. He faces an offense that is not very good against lefties and even worse against ground ball pitchers in an extremely negative run environment without their DH at a low price…I’m going to regret this ranking, aren’t I?