Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, September 29th
While we do have some higher upside guys than yesterday on a 10 game night slate, most of those arms are very hit or miss, making it another potentially high variance day as many teams are either shutting guys down, limiting their workload or setting up for the post-season. September might be one of the most profitable months of the year for daily fantasy baseball, but you certainly have to work for those profits.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reyes | STL | -5.8 | 3.99 | 5.55 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 5.75 | 4.31 | CIN | 85 | 92 | 117 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | -3.7 | 4.93 | 5.47 | 0.68 | 0.9 | 4.55 | 4.97 | OAK | 98 | 89 | 75 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.1 | 4.25 | 5.85 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 5.47 | BOS | 105 | 113 | 92 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -2 | 3.27 | 6.15 | 1.37 | 0.99 | 3.5 | 4 | CHW | 98 | 92 | 117 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | -7.4 | 4.62 | 5.55 | 1.33 | 0.86 | 4.5 | 4.3 | LOS | 91 | 74 | 141 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -0.6 | 4.69 | 5.82 | 0.7 | 0.97 | 4.76 | 5.15 | STL | 100 | 106 | 94 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.1 | 3.97 | 5.78 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.42 | 4.46 | MIN | 98 | 97 | 60 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 4 | 5.12 | 5.34 | 0.68 | 1.02 | 6.05 | NYY | 101 | 89 | 70 | |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -1.1 | 4.1 | 5.62 | 1.75 | 0.95 | 4.37 | 4.65 | CHC | 106 | 103 | 119 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 2.2 | 4.17 | 5.71 | 1.17 | 0.96 | 4.44 | 4.79 | ATL | 88 | 88 | 119 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 5.7 | 3.73 | 6.75 | 1.42 | 0.89 | 3.73 | 3.7 | COL | 83 | 96 | 37 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -2.1 | 3.69 | 5.49 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 3.93 | 1.29 | SFO | 111 | 98 | 100 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.8 | 3.84 | 6.48 | 1.28 | 0.99 | 3.56 | 6.92 | TAM | 102 | 101 | 72 |
| Josh Collmenter | ATL | -0.7 | 4.62 | 5.88 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 4.76 | 4.16 | PHI | 87 | 83 | 107 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 1.3 | 3.91 | 4.72 | 1.47 | 0.86 | 4.02 | 1.94 | SDG | 92 | 98 | 93 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8 | 4.55 | 5.8 | 1.84 | 0.9 | 4.48 | 4.13 | SEA | 112 | 107 | 118 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -5.5 | 4.42 | 6.02 | 1.85 | 1.04 | 4.53 | 5.64 | KAN | 92 | 83 | 102 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.2 | 3.54 | 6.4 | 3.04 | 1.02 | 3.41 | 4.61 | BAL | 98 | 107 | 89 |
| Rob Zastryzny | CHC | 9.9 | 2.97 | 1.73 | 0.95 | 2.65 | 11.02 | PIT | 109 | 110 | 99 | |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -3.9 | 4.26 | 5.52 | 1.59 | 1.02 | 4.45 | 2.71 | TOR | 109 | 103 | 114 |
Chris Archer has seen HR issues reemerge with five over his last three starts, but has faced the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox with only the Sox at home. While he struck out fewer than six for the first time since the All-Star break two starts back, he bounced back with seven in his last start and has a 23.9 K-BB% that’s third best in baseball since then (I still have to stop in shock every time I see Jose Fernandez near the top of one of these leaderboards). He faces the White Sox on the road. They have league average peripherals, but slightly below average power.
Johnny Cueto does not have the highest strikeout upside on the board, not even really close, but he keeps the ball on the park half the time and limits hard contact (27%) in a great park. He’s also facing a terrible road offense (17.0 K-BB%), pitching for a team clawing for a Wild Card spot.
Jon Gray lasted just four innings in his last start, but still struck out 10 and has struck out 26 of his last 50 batters. Despite facing the offense with the lowest strikeout rate in the National League (16.9% at home, 17.3% vs RHP), he might have the highest strikeout upside of the night on this streak. Perhaps what the Giants refuse him in terms of strikeouts, the environment will return in terms of run prevention. Take neutral batted ball and contact profiles and move them from Colorado to San Francisco and you should expect a drastic improvement in results.
Julio Urias was slowly being shut down this month, but is now being considered for the postseason rotation, so they may be looking to build up again a little bit in this start. He threw 78 pitches in his last start just over two weeks ago, so I’d expect something right around that again, consisting of five innings if all goes well. He’s pitched a total of just 11 innings this month. We know he can miss bats. Walks have occasionally been a problem, but the hard contact rate is below 30% despite a high line drive rate. The Padres are a great matchup in Petco. They’ve been slumbering against LHP since the trade deadline, though may have found a new RH middle of the order bat in Renfroe this week. They strike out a ton (25.2% vs LHP).
Marcus Stroman has the top ground ball rate in baseball (60.5%) by more than three full points. He’s at 62.5% with a 28.3 Hard% over his last 16 starts. The strikeout rate had been up, but it’s been reduced again recently, though the SwStr% remains impressively above his season average, which is good news. He’s in an interesting spot tonight because the Orioles lean mostly right-handed, but their RHBs hit RHP well. They will strike out a bit, but have a 17.0 HR/FB vs RHP. Stroman, interesting, has no platoon split. He’s faced Baltimore twice this year and not since June. One start was fine, but with just three strikeouts. In the other, the Orioles walloped him.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ariel Miranda (.221 – 74.6% – 14.3) has allowed 11 HRs in 52.2 innings with a 0.68 GB/FB and 36.5 Hard%. This month, he has a .137 BABIP and 86.4 LOB%. He’s allowed exactly three hits in four straight starts with five of the 12 hits being HRs.
Dan Straily (.238 – 80.7% – 11.7) is an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has now allowed 20 HRs over his last 17 starts and has a 12.9 BB% in September. That leads to multi-run homers.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Alex Reyes has a lot of strikeout upside, but has also had a double digit walk rate at every stop as a professional, including in the majors this year. The good news is that the Cardinals are still fighting for a Wild Card spot and won’t be pulling punches, but the bad news is that same reasoning saw him throw 115 pitches in his last start. My thought are that the Cardinals would like not to repeat that, though he’s in a nice spot in a big park against an offense with below average power on the road and has only accumulated 105 innings on the season. If I were more confident in 100 pitches and six innings, I could reconsider and may continue to waiver on him after this is posted.
Danny Duffy has seen his strikeout rate fluctuate more from start to start with just four in his last start and he has now allowed 11 HRs over his last six starts with a 42.1 Hard%.
Ivan Nova has walked just three batters in 10 starts since being traded to the Pirates. He’s allowed just four HRs, two of them in his first start. It’s amazing what getting out of Yankee Stadium can do for a pitcher sometimes. Just ask A.J. Burnett. However, 11 runs have crossed the plate over just seven innings in his last two starts, striking out just four of 42 batters. He’s struck out four or fewer in half of his starts as a Pirate.
Ubaldo Jimenez has struck out 16 of his last 50 batters and shut down Boston in his last start, despite walking four. While there’s been some improvement over the last month, his ERA was still held down by a .200 BABIP, though at least the ground ball rate has rebounded to 53.8%. We have enough of a history to know there’s no way in the world you’d feel comfortable paying $8K for him in Toronto, but perhaps you may not attack him as hard offensively.
Rob Zastryzny was the 41st pick in the 2013 draft and rated as the 16th best prospect in the system by Fangraphs in January, citing inconsistencies in his delivery as a potential issue going forward, making him kind of a “feast or famine” arm. He had just average peripherals through to minor league levels this season (AA & AAA). All of his 12.1 major league innings have come in relief over the last month and half, mostly lasting just an inning, but occasionally going a bit more. There shouldn’t be much of an expectation for him here. The Pirates are a strong offense against LHP at home and could make him work, further shortening his outing, but they’re also a bit banged up from the RH side.
Josh Collmenter has a double digit walk rate and has allowed three HRs over his two starts. He does have a pretty nice matchup with the Phillies, though the offense has been improved recently.
Jeremy Hellickson has taken a step backwards (just one strikeout twice in his last four starts), while the Braves have a 116 wRC+ over the last month.
Jose Quintana is not missing any bats over the last month. He’s walked six of his last 49. While he’s still been able to suppress HRs, something he’s now done each of the past three years, so I’m perfectly willing to accept his FIP, but he has allowed five in his last five starts. He is in a high strikeout spot (Rays 25.6% vs LHP), but as mentioned, his K% is well beyond his SwStr% and not something he’s normally done throughout his career. He has a career low SwStr% by nearly a point, but the second highest K% of his career. The Rays do hit for some power on the road.
C.C. Sabathia has fewer strikeouts (16%) with more hard contact (32%) in September, yet his ERA is two runs below his estimators due to a 93.6 LOB%.
Christian Friedrich struck out 10 Rockies at home three starts back and that’s the extent of his strikeout spike over the last month, one his SwStr% does not support. While the Dodgers might be even worse against LHP, he’s faced them three times this season, allowing nine runs in 11.2 innings, walking seven and striking out 13 of 65 batters.
Henry Owens last pitched on September 5th at AAA.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reyes | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 12.8% | Home | 24.5% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 9.8% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.5% | Home | 23.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.7% | Home | 19.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 11.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.4% | 7.8% | Road | 25.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 17.5% | 9.4% | Home | 17.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.4% | Road | 20.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.2% | Home | 19.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.3% | 11.8% | Road | 18.4% | 15.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.2% | 5.7% | Home | 15.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.3% | Road | 17.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.2% | Home | 21.0% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 5.2% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 25.5% | 8.1% | Road | 26.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 52.0% | 6.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.5% | Home | 21.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 6.1% | 12.2% |
| Josh Collmenter | Braves | L2 Years | 14.2% | 6.0% | Home | 14.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 10.2% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.4% | 9.0% | Road | 22.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.1% | 6.6% | Road | 14.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 2.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.8% | 8.3% | Road | 15.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.3% | Home | 18.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Rob Zastryzny | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.5% | 5.9% | Road | 31.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.7% | Road | 19.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 8.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 20.3% | 6.6% | RH | 20.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 5.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.4% | 7.8% | LH | 18.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.0% | 8.9% | LH | 19.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 13.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.4% | 8.7% | LH | 22.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.8% |
| Twins | Road | 24.3% | 8.7% | LH | 24.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 29.6% | 9.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.3% | 8.6% | LH | 18.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.6% | 9.7% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 12.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 8.2% | RH | 19.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 6.9% | RH | 20.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 29.7% | 3.8% |
| Giants | Home | 16.9% | 9.7% | RH | 17.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.6% |
| Rays | Road | 23.3% | 7.2% | LH | 25.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 28.9% | 4.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.8% | 7.1% | RH | 23.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.1% | 8.3% | LH | 25.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 9.1% | RH | 20.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.1% |
| Royals | Home | 18.5% | 6.5% | RH | 20.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.1% | 7.2% | RH | 21.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 20.0% | 9.1% | LH | 23.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.9% | 10.4% | RH | 22.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 16.7% | 14.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reyes | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.7% | 2.4% | -1.0% | 2016 | 22.7% | 2.4% | -1.0% | Home | 17.2% | 0.0% | -6.9% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -14.7% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 36.5% | 14.3% | 19.8% | 2016 | 36.5% | 14.3% | 19.8% | Home | 40.0% | 18.2% | 28.2% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.1% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2016 | 25.1% | 12.1% | 1.0% | Home | 26.5% | 15.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 2016 | 33.3% | 16.4% | 15.6% | Road | 32.9% | 16.2% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 20.0% | 2.5% |
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 2016 | 31.9% | 9.2% | 12.8% | Home | 30.8% | 9.7% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 2016 | 32.5% | 11.7% | 17.2% | Road | 31.7% | 14.3% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 10.5% | 19.4% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 2016 | 36.1% | 12.9% | 18.0% | Home | 34.4% | 9.8% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 36.4% | 44.1% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.1% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 2016 | 24.5% | 19.2% | 2.0% | Road | 29.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.9% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 2016 | 34.9% | 16.7% | 16.3% | Home | 31.6% | 14.4% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 2016 | 25.7% | 12.8% | 5.2% | Road | 32.0% | 12.9% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 27.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 2016 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | Home | 24.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 2016 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 13.4% | Road | 33.9% | 11.2% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.1% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 2016 | 32.7% | 9.2% | 14.2% | Home | 30.9% | 10.9% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Josh Collmenter | Braves | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 2016 | 31.3% | 21.9% | 13.1% | Home | 30.6% | 13.5% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 25.0% | 9.4% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 2016 | 28.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | Road | 22.9% | 16.7% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 2016 | 29.0% | 13.3% | 12.3% | Road | 27.5% | 15.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 10.0% | 14.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 2016 | 31.0% | 15.0% | 12.3% | Road | 28.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.0% | 17.0% | 11.3% | 2016 | 31.0% | 17.4% | 13.1% | Home | 30.1% | 12.5% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -5.5% |
| Rob Zastryzny | Cubs | L2 Years | 29.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 2016 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% | Road | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 2016 | 31.4% | 11.5% | 13.1% | Road | 27.5% | 12.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 28.6% | 13.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 28.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | RH | 30.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 17.0% | 5.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | LH | 28.3% | 12.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 34.0% | 6.8% | 21.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.4% | 13.4% | 13.9% | LH | 31.3% | 13.1% | 11.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.8% | 2.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.1% | 12.3% | 8.6% | RH | 29.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 31.1% | 16.1% | 13.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.1% | 12.9% | 17.8% | LH | 30.8% | 10.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.0% | 19.0% | 10.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.8% | 13.2% | 16.7% | RH | 34.5% | 14.9% | 17.5% | L7Days | 31.8% | 10.7% | 17.2% |
| Twins | Road | 30.7% | 13.5% | 11.0% | LH | 30.9% | 13.3% | 12.0% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.8% | 5.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.7% | 14.9% | 10.8% | LH | 30.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 30.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.7% | 14.5% | 13.9% | RH | 31.5% | 12.6% | 11.8% | L7Days | 30.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Braves | Home | 31.0% | 7.4% | 13.7% | RH | 29.5% | 9.5% | 11.1% | L7Days | 27.9% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.4% | 12.4% | 10.5% | RH | 32.9% | 14.8% | 15.4% | L7Days | 32.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% |
| Giants | Home | 26.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | RH | 29.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Rays | Road | 31.7% | 14.6% | 12.9% | LH | 32.9% | 12.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 6.3% | 11.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.5% | 12.4% | 11.2% | RH | 28.8% | 13.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.4% | 8.7% |
| Padres | Home | 30.6% | 12.7% | 11.9% | LH | 32.4% | 15.3% | 13.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 17.0% | 13.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.4% | 16.1% | 12.5% | RH | 31.2% | 14.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 15.5% | 6.8% |
| Royals | Home | 31.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | RH | 30.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 34.1% | 12.7% | 21.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.2% | 14.7% | 12.9% | RH | 33.0% | 17.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 18.0% | 14.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 31.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | LH | 33.3% | 13.2% | 15.2% | L7Days | 27.5% | 13.3% | 6.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 33.4% | 14.4% | 15.5% | RH | 33.5% | 15.2% | 15.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 10.4% | 7.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reyes | STL | 28.1% | 12.0% | 2.34 | 26.6% | 12.6% | 2.11 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 17.9% | 7.8% | 2.29 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 2.24 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.4% | 9.8% | 1.98 | 16.0% | 8.9% | 1.80 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 27.7% | 12.2% | 2.27 | 24.8% | 12.6% | 1.97 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.11 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.84 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 20.3% | 10.2% | 1.99 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 1.78 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 26.3% | 13.1% | 2.01 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 2.04 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 18.1% | 8.6% | 2.10 | |||
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 18.4% | 9.4% | 1.96 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 1.95 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 19.7% | 10.9% | 1.81 | 14.6% | 8.5% | 1.72 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.0% | 9.2% | 2.39 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.16 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 26.6% | 12.2% | 2.18 | 31.5% | 13.9% | 2.27 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.85 | 18.8% | 5.6% | 3.36 |
| Josh Collmenter | ATL | 19.9% | 7.6% | 2.62 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 2.72 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 24.4% | 10.1% | 2.42 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 2.89 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 13.4% | 7.3% | 1.84 | 11.6% | 5.2% | 2.23 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.4% | 9.5% | 1.62 | 15.3% | 8.9% | 1.72 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.8% | 9.4% | 2.11 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 1.65 |
| Rob Zastryzny | CHC | 25.5% | 14.1% | 1.81 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 1.98 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 19.5% | 8.4% | 2.32 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 2.23 |
Marcus Stroman has had a double digit SwStr (above 11%) in three of his five starts this month and has not been below 8.3%. This should be a sign for optimism despite the small decline in strikeouts from his season rate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reyes | STL | 1.58 | 3.98 | 2.4 | 4.13 | 2.55 | 2.74 | 1.16 | 2.08 | 4.1 | 2.02 | 4.41 | 2.33 | 2.91 | 0.83 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.1 | 4.93 | 0.83 | 5.17 | 1.07 | 5.44 | 1.34 | 2.79 | 5.06 | 2.27 | 5.18 | 2.39 | 5.83 | 3.04 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.02 | 4.42 | 0.4 | 4.42 | 0.4 | 4.31 | 0.29 | 2.54 | 4.68 | 2.14 | 4.63 | 2.09 | 5.15 | 2.61 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 4.02 | 3.48 | -0.54 | 3.37 | -0.65 | 3.78 | -0.24 | 3.51 | 3.48 | -0.03 | 3.59 | 0.08 | 4.23 | 0.72 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 4.66 | 4.81 | 0.15 | 4.78 | 0.12 | 4.23 | -0.43 | 3.7 | 4.01 | 0.31 | 4.04 | 0.34 | 2.85 | -0.85 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.74 | 4.7 | 0.96 | 5.02 | 1.28 | 4.82 | 1.08 | 4.5 | 5.04 | 0.54 | 5.67 | 1.17 | 6.55 | 2.05 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.43 | 3.47 | 0.04 | 3.77 | 0.34 | 3.77 | 0.34 | 5.46 | 3.4 | -2.06 | 3.38 | -2.08 | 5.13 | -0.33 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 7.79 | 6.93 | -0.86 | 7.21 | -0.58 | 8.45 | 0.66 | |||||||
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 4.37 | 3.82 | -0.55 | 3.77 | -0.6 | 4.2 | -0.17 | 4.18 | 3.29 | -0.89 | 3.04 | -1.14 | 2.25 | -1.93 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.78 | 4.2 | 0.42 | 4.05 | 0.27 | 4.03 | 0.25 | 3.69 | 4.74 | 1.05 | 4.47 | 0.78 | 3.4 | -0.29 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.79 | 3.65 | 0.86 | 3.5 | 0.71 | 3.03 | 0.24 | 2.45 | 3.78 | 1.33 | 3.5 | 1.05 | 2.78 | 0.33 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.54 | 3.64 | -0.9 | 3.55 | -0.99 | 3.6 | -0.94 | 4.2 | 3.14 | -1.06 | 3.06 | -1.14 | 3.08 | -1.12 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.21 | 4.04 | 0.83 | 4.08 | 0.87 | 3.54 | 0.33 | 5.76 | 4.5 | -1.26 | 4.57 | -1.19 | 4.73 | -1.03 |
| Josh Collmenter | ATL | 4.19 | 4.49 | 0.3 | 4.59 | 0.4 | 5.68 | 1.49 | 3 | 4.16 | 1.16 | 4.07 | 1.07 | 5.64 | 2.64 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 3.53 | 3.91 | 0.38 | 3.75 | 0.22 | 3.22 | -0.31 | 2.45 | 4.56 | 2.11 | 5.52 | 3.07 | 3.69 | 1.24 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.19 | 4.62 | 0.43 | 4.43 | 0.24 | 4.48 | 0.29 | 5.28 | 4.6 | -0.68 | 4.31 | -0.97 | 4.22 | -1.06 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 5.04 | 4.83 | -0.21 | 4.57 | -0.47 | 4.84 | -0.2 | 4.55 | 4.83 | 0.28 | 4.46 | -0.09 | 4.86 | 0.31 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.34 | 3.57 | -0.77 | 3.37 | -0.97 | 3.73 | -0.61 | 3 | 4.21 | 1.21 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 4.11 | 1.11 |
| Rob Zastryzny | CHC | 1.46 | 2.97 | 1.51 | 3.5 | 2.04 | 2.01 | 0.55 | 3.6 | 3.86 | 0.26 | 4.75 | 1.15 | 2.74 | -0.86 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.71 | 4.75 | -0.96 | 4.68 | -1.03 | 4.5 | -1.21 | 3.09 | 4 | 0.91 | 4.01 | 0.92 | 3.91 | 0.82 |
Chris Archer still has a 16.4 HR/FB, but closer to league average (14.1) since the break.
Johnny Cueto is tied with Noah Syndergaard for the third lowest HR rate in baseball. Only seven pitchers in baseball are lower than a 10.0 HR/FB. Their 8.6 HR/FB rates are the only ones below nine. An extreme power suppressing park has a lot to do with that.
Jon Gray has a .305 BABIP, which is actually below the Colorado norm. He also has just a 67.1% strand rate.
Marcus Stroman has stranded just 68.8% of his runners. He strikes out batters at an average rate, but should get significant amount of double plays. His 17.4 HR/FB is less concerning with the highest ground ball rate in baseball. It’s led to just 21 HRs.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reyes | STL | 0.303 | 0.260 | -0.043 | 0.138 | 14.6% | 78.5% |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.292 | 0.221 | -0.071 | 0.173 | 14.3% | 86.5% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.293 | 0.291 | -0.002 | 0.165 | 13.8% | 87.2% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.297 | 0.297 | 0 | 0.184 | 7.9% | 84.9% |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 0.295 | 0.293 | -0.002 | 0.18 | 15.5% | 91.0% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.290 | 0.238 | -0.052 | 0.204 | 8.1% | 85.2% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.290 | -0.008 | 0.201 | 8.4% | 80.9% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 0.292 | 0.318 | 0.026 | 0.146 | 19.2% | 83.5% |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.306 | 0.307 | 0.001 | 0.189 | 8.7% | 93.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.303 | 0.276 | -0.027 | 0.249 | 14.4% | 85.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.287 | 0.286 | -0.001 | 0.201 | 10.9% | 87.1% |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.317 | 0.305 | -0.012 | 0.246 | 8.1% | 86.6% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.298 | 0.293 | -0.005 | 0.206 | 13.6% | 89.6% |
| Josh Collmenter | ATL | 0.292 | 0.250 | -0.042 | 0.198 | 6.3% | 84.7% |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.284 | 0.362 | 0.078 | 0.268 | 12.9% | 83.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.299 | 0.285 | -0.014 | 0.202 | 6.6% | 90.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.318 | 0.324 | 0.006 | 0.224 | 7.5% | 90.5% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.283 | 0.307 | 0.024 | 0.193 | 5.0% | 90.4% |
| Rob Zastryzny | CHC | 0.255 | 0.294 | 0.039 | 0.091 | 9.1% | 78.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.300 | 0.328 | 0.028 | 0.182 | 8.6% | 87.9% |
Julio Urias has a high BABIP despite an impressive profile aside from a high line drive rate without a high hard hit rate and a somewhat average 90.3 mph aEV. This looks to be a small sample blip as most of his hard contact seems to be in line drives and not HRs (8.1 HR/FB).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There’s a lot of ugliness and volatility on this board without much of anything on the low end. We can at least be confident that most of these guys should not be limited. I’ve found myself feeling one way about guys at the time of writing this week, but perhaps differently once lineups roll out.
Value Tier One
Jon Gray (1t) has struck out more than half the batters he’s faced over his last two starts. That’s not nearly sustainable, especially after he struck out just three in each of his previous two starts and is now facing the toughest offense to strike out in the NL, but he still retains plenty of upside and gains back something from a negative run environment. He’s been over 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, so the Rockies have kept the leash loose on him.
Value Tier Two
Johnny Cueto (1t) is in a great spot at home for a team fighting for a postseason spot. We can be sure there’ll be no limitations on him. However, he’s the highest priced pitcher on the board and is more batted ball dependent than many of the arms below him. Not that he can’t succeed that way in a great park and he may even be the “safer” choice, but strikeouts are fantasy points.
Julio Urias (4) will have a limited workload tonight. What it will be, perhaps announced later, may move him further up or down this board. Considering a normal (100+ pitch) workload, I’d estimate his worth around $11 to $12K in this favorable, high strikeout spot and still consider him a reasonable value here. That should be more so on FanDuel, but the workload could put the Win in more doubt too.
Value Tier Three
Marcus Stroman (5) is facing a powerful offense that did tag him last time he faced them, but the cost is reasonable around $8K and if all goes well, he’ll be able to keep them grounded and accumulate a few strikeouts. With the Blue Jays still fighting for a Wild Card spot, there are no concerns about his workload.
Chris Archer (3) has had HR issues pop up again and pitches in another park that favors power somewhat, but he only had a 28.3 Hard% over the last three starts with those five HRs in some very difficult spots. He has tremendous upside to go along with some risk for under $10K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
No arms fit this category today as their seems to be a big drop off after the pitchers listed above.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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