Daily Batter Breakdown: Friday, June 26th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-29 14:32:19

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Brian McCann
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.233	0.710	4.67%	0.311
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.421	1.237	10.53%	0.511
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Velasquez – RIGHT		0.231	0.874	3.85%	0.387
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.885	0.000	$3,900	$9,600	$4,300	$79,600

Brian McCann

Vincent Velasquez has been good so far this year for the Astros, and while he has struck out a lot of batters, he has also walked a good number as well. His LOB% is unsustainable and his marks against lefties are not great. He has a .387 wOBA allowed, but the 5.91 xFIP shows us that at some point he is going to come back to earth. With not a lot of power options at catcher, I love McCann, who is having a much better season against righties this year with a .375 wOBA and 139 wRC+.

		Edwin Encarnacion
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.256	0.864	7.06%	0.372
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.273	0.87	4.55%	0.373
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Martinez – RIGHT		0.278	0.783	2.40%	0.343
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.928	0.000	$3,900	$10,000	$4,600	$75,100

Edwin Encarnacion

The Jays look like the best team to stack tonight with several solid pitchers on the mound elsewhere. Nick Martinez has been playing with fire all year, especially against right-handed batters. His wOBA is only .365 but his xFIP is at 4.85 and he has been worse against righties. Tonight he will pitch in Rogers Centre, which is one of the most power-friendly parks in Major League Baseball. Encarnacion does all of his home run hitting this year against righties, and he should continue that trend tonight.

		Scooter Gennett
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.290	0.765	2.26%	0.330
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.077	0.451	7.69%	0.161
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		May – RIGHT		0.287	0.773	1.99%	0.340
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.311	0.000	$3,000	$5,000	$3,300	$38,800

Scooter Gennett

Gennett is extremely cheap across the industry and while he is definitely a risk, he does have upside here. Trevor May isn’t the worst pitcher on tonight’s slate, but he hasn’t been great, either. We are rostering Gennett here because of the park factor, his potential speed, and his numbers against righties which should increase towards his career numbers. This is a risky pick, but there are not a lot of slam dunk second basemen on the docket tonight.

		Brett Lawrie
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.282	0.742	3.11%	0.328
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.391	1.069	4.35%	0.458
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Volquez – RIGHT		0.231	0.648	1.60%	0.292
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.042	0.000	$3,300	$8,150	$3,900	$64,500

Brett Lawrie

We have some interesting reverse splits here as Lawrie has actually been better in his career against right-handed pitchers, with a career wOBA sitting at .329. He is struggling a bit with his plate discipline against righties this year, but that should turn around as he still has a 99 wRC+ despite less than ideal walk and strikeout numbers. Edinson Volquez has generally been good against righties but is struggling this year with a 4.46 xFIP and his K% is down as well. This could be an interesting spot for a low owned Lawrie.

		Kevin Kiermaier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.275	0.808	3.00%	0.349
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.355	0.891	0.00%	0.384
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Porcello – RIGHT		0.269	0.749	2.69%	0.327
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.143	0.000	$2,800	$6,750	$3,800	$55,300

Kevin Kiermaier

I have said it many times, but despite Rick Porcello having improved against lefties this year, I am still targeting lefties against him. He still allows a big HR/9 against them, and is allowing them to hit at a .342 wOBA this year. Kiermaier does all of his damage against right-handers and should hit at the top of the lineup against Porcello tonight even though he is struggling a bit. He still has a 119 wRC+ and a .335 wOBA with a .190 ISO, which means he is a solid bet to put a few in play or over the wall tonight.

		Jose Reyes
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.293	0.743	1.89%	0.327
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.226	0.669	3.23%	0.289
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Martinez – RIGHT		0.253	0.761	3.03%	0.336
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.928	0.000	$3,600	$8,300	$4,500	$70,500

Jose Reyes

Nick Martinez is a bit worse against righties this year, but he struggled a ton against lefties last year. I am not sure what his secret is, although it could be the .227 BABIP against lefties this year, as he does have a poor xFIP. Reyes will be hitting at the top of the order and will be hitting lefty, the side where he as done all of his damage. Reyes is one of the top shortstop plays on the board today especially since there are a ton of teams with low over/unders and a lot of pitchers better than Martinez.

		Carlos Correa
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF

Carlos Correa

Correa is unstoppable right now. He has not been great against righties so far, but does have power against them and is in a hitter’s park tonight. Plus, facing a right-handed pitcher means his stolen base upside increases. Nathan Eovaldi has been struggling a bit this year and I am not going to doubt the superprospect yet. I do like Reyes more than him, but if Correa is still extremely cheap on your site, I would not overlook him.

		Matt Kemp
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.261	0.750	3.02%	0.325
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.167	0.493	4.17%	0.205
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ray – LEFT		0.278	0.822	3.40%	0.360
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.008	0.000	$2,500	$7,350	$4,100	$58,400

Matt Kemp

Yes, we are in Petco with this game and yes the Padres’ over/under is small, but this is a game where I might consider taking the over on the Padres. They are built to rock poor lefty pitchers with guys like Norris, Upton, and Kemp among others and with Robbie Ray coming to town they can definitely do that. Ray’s career xFIP is 4.55, and he had a .448 wOBA against right-handers last year. Yes, he has improved, but this is a great spot for the SD righties, especially Kemp who had multiple years of .400+ wOBA vs lefties in a row.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.274	0.874	6.10%	0.374
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.350	1.381	20.00%	0.571
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Quintana – LEFT		0.265	0.701	1.57%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.976	0.000	$3,800	$10,800	$4,600	$94,800

J.D. Martinez

I am trying very hard to ignore Martinez’s numbers against left-handed pitching this year and look at his numbers from last year where his strikeouts were low, and he managed a .425 wOBA with a 176 wRC+. This year, he is flat out struggling against LHP but with his recent surge against RHP, I think that should help his approach against lefties. He is expensive, but is extremely hot and the Tigers have one of the highest over/unders on the board. Jose Quintana is not a guy I usually target, but against the Tigers here who have a ton of right-handed bats in the lineup, I will.

		Scott Van Slyke
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.307	1.000	6.57%	0.429
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Nicolino – LEFT		0.167	0.433	0.00%	0.196
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.891	0.000	$3,000	$5,150	$3,700	$39,100

Scott Van Slyke

Justin Nicolino will start against the Dodgers today and even though we do not have a ton of stats on him in the Majors, he does have a poor 4.51 xFIP in the minors this year. The play is really about Van Slyke who raked against lefties last year with a .447 wOBA. He still has a .377 wOBA this year against lefties and it is clear that he really loves hitting against LHP. He is cheap today, so take advantage of the situation, especially if he is hitting in the middle of the lineup.