Daily Pitcher Breakdown - Friday, July 3rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koehler | MIA | CHC | 277.1 | 3.76 | 4.22 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 18.6% | 8.7% | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| Hammel | CHC | MIA | 272 | 3.28 | 3.32 | 1.07 | 47.4% | 23.5% | 5.6% | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| Peavy | SFG | WAS | 210.1 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 1.31 | 42.1% | 18.5% | 7.5% | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | SFG | 240.1 | 3.86 | 3.56 | 1.30 | 46.7% | 23.2% | 8.8% | 0.49 | 1.64 |
| Bauer | CLE | PIT | 244 | 4.09 | 4.00 | 1.35 | 38.5% | 22.2% | 9.7% | 0.96 | 0.83 |
| Morton | PIT | CLE | 197.1 | 3.83 | 3.70 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 7.9% | 0.55 | 2.68 |
| Archer | TBR | NYY | 303.2 | 2.96 | 3.32 | 1.16 | 55.0% | 24.5% | 7.8% | 0.62 | 1.55 |
| Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 189.2 | 3.08 | 2.78 | 1.07 | 66.7% | 25.9% | 4.2% | 1.19 | 1.47 |
| Hutchison | TOR | DET | 273 | 4.65 | 3.65 | 1.31 | 31.6% | 22.6% | 7.3% | 1.09 | 0.90 |
| Sanchez | DET | TOR | 231 | 3.97 | 3.65 | 1.13 | 41.2% | 20.9% | 6.2% | 0.86 | 1.21 |
| Fiers | MIL | CIN | 158.2 | 3.23 | 3.34 | 1.20 | 25.7% | 7.6% | 0.96 | 0.85 | |
| Lorenzen | CIN | MIL | 61.1 | 3.38 | 5.24 | 1.45 | 14.8% | 12.5% | 1.47 | 1.24 | |
| Straily | HOU | BOS | 52 | 6.75 | 4.28 | 1.48 | 14.3% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.73 | 0.72 |
| Masterson | BOS | HOU | 169 | 5.80 | 4.15 | 1.62 | 36.8% | 18.8% | 11.3% | 0.85 | 2.44 |
| Correia | PHI | ATL | 174 | 5.22 | 4.69 | 1.52 | 45.0% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Teheran | ATL | PHI | 315.2 | 3.51 | 3.85 | 1.18 | 70.0% | 20.2% | 6.5% | 1.03 | 0.89 |
| Richards | LAA | TEX | 255 | 2.93 | 3.50 | 1.11 | 65.0% | 22.3% | 8.1% | 0.42 | 1.79 |
| Chi Gonzalez | TEX | LAA | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | CHW | 286.2 | 3.99 | 4.43 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 16.9% | 8.4% | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| Danks | CHW | BAL | 274 | 4.93 | 4.59 | 1.45 | 50.0% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| Milone | MIN | KCR | 171.2 | 3.88 | 4.59 | 1.36 | 43.8% | 14.8% | 7.4% | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| Guthrie | KCR | MIN | 285 | 4.58 | 4.52 | 1.36 | 42.1% | 13.6% | 5.9% | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Cashner | SDP | STL | 219.1 | 3.28 | 3.68 | 1.25 | 75.0% | 19.7% | 6.3% | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| Wacha | STL | SDP | 201.1 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 1.15 | 53.3% | 20.1% | 6.6% | 0.54 | 1.31 |
| Happ | SEA | OAK | 243.2 | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.33 | 30.8% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 1.11 | 1.07 |
| Chavez | OAK | SEA | 235.1 | 3.29 | 3.65 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 21.6% | 7.3% | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Kendrick | COL | ARI | 295.1 | 5.09 | 4.66 | 1.39 | 30.0% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 1.46 | 1.18 |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 205.1 | 3.86 | 4.01 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 18.7% | 7.1% | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | LAD | 52.2 | 3.59 | 3.11 | 1.22 | 24.0% | 4.5% | 0.68 | 1.37 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | NYM | 305.1 | 2.27 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 66.7% | 32.3% | 4.8% | 0.59 | 1.84 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. NYM) – It’s full steam ahead on Kershaw, who has rebounded from a handful of poor innings early in the season to reestablish himself as a premier option. He has struck out nine or more batters in five consecutive starts, and the only time since early April that he has failed to rack up at last seven strikeouts was a game in the thin air of Denver. His young opponent will be taking notes.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (at NYY) – At what point does a player’s performance officially become a breakout? For Archer, I think we passed that point about a month ago. He now has 17 starts of 2.31 ERA baseball under his belt, and he has offset the occasional hiccup (e.g. last weekend’s five runs allowed) with good enough peripherals to justify a high DFS salary (e.g. last weekend’s ten strikeouts). He had some issues with strike zone control in May, but he has kept the free passes to a minimum in the month since, with just four walks allowed across his last seven games combined, covering 49.0 innings.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. SD) – It’s only a month’s worth of outings, but Wacha has been playing slalom with his run prevention over the last six turns, with earnie counts of (going backward): one, five, two, four, one, and four earned runs allowed. If the trend continues then today would feature at least a four-spot of runs against the Padres, but San Diego’s recent issues with run-scoring combine with the fact that Wacha allowed two or fewer tallies in eight of his first nine starts of the year to inspire optimism that he can break the pattern and post a quality start this evening.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. TB) – Tanaka will be chased by doubts throughout the season, and the surprising Yankees are trudging along with bated breath that their ace can survive the regular season. He was on a healthy run just a couple of weeks ago, with a five-start stretch of five earned runs over 34.3 innings of work, but his two most recent turns have burned his DFS owners: 13 runs and 21 baserunners in 10.0 innings, including a whopping six home runs surrendered. Tanaka has given up 10 homers this season and yet eight of them have come in his last four games, as the right-hander has struggled to bury his slider and split with the usual consistency. His velocity has also been down about 1.5 mph in his last two turns, so the radar gun might serve as an early indicator of effectiveness in tonight’s game.
Garrett Richards LAA (at TEX) – During last season’s breakout performance, there were signs that Richards would struggle to repeat the same level of consistency, given a better-than-average walk rate that was masking the frequency with which he was missing targets. He was throwing so hard and the slider was so sharp that he was generating empty swings by the bushel, regardless of whether pitches went where he intended, so any adjustment by opposing hitters in identifying his pitches could result in an escalated walk rate. The velocity is down from last season, the pitch command has been spottier while the batters have been more careful with their swings, a deadly combination that has dragged down his performance.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at LAD) – His control of the strike zone is impressive for a pitcher of any experience level, but for a 22-year-old rookie to post a 53-to-10 ratio of K’s to walks (in 52.7 innings pitched) is an incredible accomplishment, particularly when the extra strikes have not resulted in an exorbitant rate of hits or homers allowed. The month of June has been shaky, with a pair of double-digit strikeout games yet three turns with four or more runs allowed (those two traits overlapped in his start on June 2nd), and perhaps most frustrating for DFS gamers is the identity of his opponents in some of those games – he shut down the top-scoring Blue Jays with 11 strikeouts and just four baserunners through 6.0 innings on June 15, only to get lit by the weak-hitting Braves for four runs and eight hits in just 4.0 innings in his next start. The question is whether he will step up his game against the Dodgers or become another footnote on the team’s game log this season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koehler | 0.307 | 3.70 | 0.314 | 3.84 | 0.240 | 0.696 | 0.282 | 4.06 | 0.243 | 90.79 | 18.6% |
| Hammel | 0.294 | 2.59 | 0.284 | 3.80 | 0.249 | 0.657 | 0.270 | 3.56 | 0.225 | 94.33 | 23.5% |
| Peavy | 0.332 | 4.46 | 0.326 | 3.44 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.294 | 4.13 | 0.256 | 99.50 | 18.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.289 | 3.92 | 0.310 | 3.84 | 0.269 | 0.700 | 0.316 | 3.07 | 0.245 | 96.80 | 23.2% |
| Bauer | 0.310 | 4.43 | 0.325 | 3.77 | 0.256 | 0.694 | 0.298 | 4.01 | 0.243 | 99.95 | 22.2% |
| Morton | 0.311 | 3.86 | 0.308 | 3.81 | 0.245 | 0.703 | 0.296 | 3.74 | 0.249 | 93.88 | 17.8% |
| Archer | 0.273 | 2.79 | 0.281 | 3.18 | 0.261 | 0.757 | 0.289 | 3.06 | 0.224 | 98.78 | 24.5% |
| Tanaka | 0.283 | 2.65 | 0.307 | 3.52 | 0.244 | 0.685 | 0.290 | 3.33 | 0.236 | 97.03 | 25.9% |
| Hutchison | 0.333 | 5.46 | 0.311 | 3.66 | 0.274 | 0.746 | 0.308 | 3.83 | 0.253 | 94.83 | 22.6% |
| Sanchez | 0.269 | 3.12 | 0.315 | 5.13 | 0.255 | 0.755 | 0.273 | 3.47 | 0.23 | 98.39 | 20.9% |
| Fiers | 0.308 | 3.34 | 0.288 | 3.14 | 0.246 | 0.708 | 0.296 | 3.38 | 0.233 | 87.63 | 25.7% |
| Lorenzen | 0.417 | 4.22 | 0.293 | 2.93 | 0.245 | 0.676 | 0.256 | 5.66 | 0.245 | 84.25 | 14.8% |
| Straily | 0.337 | 4.97 | 0.395 | 9.00 | 0.263 | 0.734 | 0.291 | 5.32 | 0.259 | 62.93 | 20.4% |
| Masterson | 0.394 | 6.26 | 0.334 | 5.26 | 0.240 | 0.738 | 0.336 | 4.56 | 0.278 | 81.78 | 18.8% |
| Correia | 0.374 | 5.03 | 0.343 | 5.44 | 0.262 | 0.699 | 0.318 | 4.67 | 0.299 | 79.50 | 11.8% |
| Teheran | 0.332 | 4.00 | 0.277 | 3.07 | 0.237 | 0.636 | 0.281 | 3.85 | 0.241 | 97.76 | 20.2% |
| Richards | 0.246 | 3.06 | 0.271 | 2.76 | 0.254 | 0.725 | 0.265 | 3.02 | 0.209 | 99.60 | 22.3% |
| Chi Gonzalez | 0.242 | 0.682 | |||||||||
| Tillman | 0.303 | 3.11 | 0.328 | 5.04 | 0.245 | 0.672 | 0.278 | 4.22 | 0.246 | 97.59 | 16.9% |
| Danks | 0.312 | 4.24 | 0.368 | 5.16 | 0.278 | 0.756 | 0.299 | 4.80 | 0.274 | 100.80 | 15.2% |
| Milone | 0.287 | 3.51 | 0.342 | 3.99 | 0.270 | 0.709 | 0.282 | 4.71 | 0.262 | 90.26 | 14.8% |
| Guthrie | 0.379 | 6.05 | 0.276 | 2.87 | 0.243 | 0.679 | 0.301 | 4.49 | 0.279 | 97.74 | 13.6% |
| Cashner | 0.338 | 4.26 | 0.278 | 2.44 | 0.275 | 0.752 | 0.298 | 3.49 | 0.252 | 96.89 | 19.7% |
| Wacha | 0.268 | 3.15 | 0.290 | 2.84 | 0.242 | 0.671 | 0.279 | 3.16 | 0.229 | 92.65 | 20.1% |
| Happ | 0.354 | 4.08 | 0.323 | 4.11 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.305 | 4.01 | 0.263 | 91.58 | 19.3% |
| Chavez | 0.298 | 2.82 | 0.294 | 3.85 | 0.225 | 0.655 | 0.299 | 3.52 | 0.246 | 77.49 | 21.6% |
| Kendrick | 0.371 | 5.29 | 0.338 | 4.94 | 0.258 | 0.713 | 0.285 | 5.13 | 0.274 | 95.23 | 13.1% |
| Anderson | 0.303 | 3.35 | 0.347 | 4.28 | 0.277 | 0.787 | 0.296 | 4.15 | 0.259 | 92.11 | 18.7% |
| Syndergaard | 0.274 | 2.88 | 0.316 | 4.23 | 0.257 | 0.779 | 0.329 | 2.75 | 0.258 | 96.11 | 24.0% |
| Kershaw | 0.247 | 2.19 | 0.247 | 2.29 | 0.236 | 0.703 | 0.287 | 2.09 | 0.202 | 101.14 | 32.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Andrew Cashner SD (at STL) – The right-hander’s stat-line looks somewhat bleak with the 4.22 ERA, but things turn downright nasty when considering that he has allowed an astounding 19 runs that were of the unearned variety (his RA is 6.00 tallies per nine innings this season). The strikeouts have tamed since his whiff-heavy April, and Cashner has only exceeded six strikeouts once in his last 11 starts, and that was a weird 12-K performance in which he only generated 14 total outs. The Cardinals is not as imposing as the team’s W-L record might indicate, but at this point Cashner needs to get out of his own way.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at PIT) – Bauer exploded onto the scene this season with consistent performance and a number of high-strikeout games, a critical distinction for a pitcher who had been painfully volatile throughout his pro career. The inconsistency has returned in a big way, and June was chock-full of uninspiring starts that were low in K’s (he only struck out more than five batters once in five turns) and high in opponent runs, with an ERA of 6.26 for the month of June. The walks have spiraled out of control and he now leads the AL with 42 ball-bases allowed. Bauer will have to right the ship before he can be trusted.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. PHI) – … and the list of woulda-coulda-shoulda arms continues. Teheran came into the year as one of the top young guns in the game, having compiled a 3.03 ERA through 406 innings across the previous two seasons. In that context, this season’s 4.94 ERA seems completely out of line. The walks and homers are up, the K’s are down, and he hasn’t been able to sustain a run of three or more quality starts yet this season – there haven’t even been two in a row since April. His weak opponent entices a gamble on Teheran’s services, but the potential downside far outweighs the upside.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at CHW) – At 7.4 percent, Jimenez’s walk rate is nearly two full percentage points lower than any other season of his career. Walks can be a bit fluky and are not necessarily an indicator of pitch command, but in Ubaldo’s case the improvement is very real. He has one of the goofiest deliveries in game, one that he has struggled to harness throughout his career, and though the goofy components are still intact Jimenez has been able to repeat the timing and positioning of his delivery much better this season than in the past. Jimenez is typically a whipping boy for mechanics-related jokes, but the laughter has dulled from a roar to a mere chuckle this season, making him an intriguing option against the light-hitting White Sox.
Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. TOR) – Almost everything about Anibal’s stat-line appears to be sound: a 22.0-percent K rate and a 6.7-percent frequency of walks, both better than his career averages, and a 1.18 WHIP that typically comes attached to an ERA in the three’s. But Sanchez has an ERA of 4.63 this season due to the highest homer rate of his career, having given up 18 longballs already this season, including five homers across his last two starts. The homer rate will likely come down, but I wouldn’t expect that regression to begin tonight, considering he’s facing a Toronto offense whose 106 home runs are the second-most in baseball.
Chase Anderson ARI (vs. COL) – He’s not gonna blow anyone away with a paltry 14.8-percent K rate, but Anderson has thus far defied the odds to put up a strong season in the desert. His strength is in avoiding walks, as he has yet to give away more than three free passes in any one ballgame and has walked one or zero batters in 10 of his 15 turns. Anderson’s line has been tarnished by just a few bad starts, the worst of which was an eight-run outing against these Rockies in Denver two games ago, but the more ominous sign is that six of the nine homers that Anderson has allowed this season have come in his last two ballgames.
Jesse Chavez OAK (vs. SEA)
Mike Fiers MIL (at CIN)
Drew Hutchison TOR (at DET)
J.A. Happ SEA (at OAK)
Chi Chi Gonzalez TEX (vs. LAA)
Michael Lorenzen CIN (vs. MIL)
Dan Straily HOU (at BOS)
Tommy Milone MIN (at KC)
Charlie Morton PIT (vs. CLE)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Adam Morgan PHI (at ATL)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. MIN)
Justin Masterson BOS (vs. HOU)
Kyle Kendrick COL (at ARI)
John Danks CHW (vs. BAL)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window.